Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity, Shipments, Price...

Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments: Capacity

Price & Revenues 2015/2016 -1- Report SPV-Supply4

SPV Market Research April 2016

Photovoltaic Manufacturer Capacity,

Shipments, Price & Revenues

2015/2016

SPV Market Research

Paula Mints, Chief Market Research Analyst

Report SPV-Supply4

April 2016




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Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 8

1.1 Purpose and Scope .............................................................................................................. 8

Table 1.1 Overview (Examples) of Photovoltaic Manufacturer Coverage (1) (2) ...... 9

1.2 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 11

2. Executive Summary ................................................................................................................... 12

2.1 Industry Overview and Analysis ....................................................................................... 13

Figure 2.1: PV Industry Growth 1975 through 2015 ................................................... 13

Figure 2.2: PV Industry ASPs and Average Costs 2000-2015 ................................... 16

2.2 Cell/Module Manufacturer Shipments ............................................................................. 17

Figure 2.3: PV Industry Metrics 2015 ........................................................................ 17

Figure 2.4: PV Manufacturers shipping >3% of Total in 2015 .................................... 18

Table 2.1: Regional Shipments 2010 to 2015(1) (2) .................................................. 19

Figure 2.5: PV Industry Growth, 2005-2015 and Five Year Forecast ......................... 20

2.2.1 Regional Shipments ................................................................................................... 21

Table 2.2: Regional Manufacturer Shipments* 2000-2015 ..................................... 21

Figure 2.6: 2014 Global Supply & Global Demand .................................................... 22

2.2.2 Shipments by Technology ......................................................................................... 23

Figure 2.7: Technology Market Share % 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 ....................... 23

Figure 2.8: N-Type Monocrystalline Shipments 2014 and 2015................................. 24

2.3 Revenues ............................................................................................................................. 25

Figure 2.9: PV Cell/Module Revenues and ASPs, 2005-2015 ................................... 25

2.4 Average Selling Price (ASP) ............................................................................................. 26

Table 2.3: PV Industry Cell/Module Revenues, Shipments & ASPs 2005-2015 ..... 27

2.5 Manufacturing Capacity ..................................................................................................... 28

Figure 2.10: Regional Capacity Shares, 2014, 2015 ................................................. 30

2.6 Overview of Global Module Assembly Capacity ............................................................ 31

Figure 2.11: Global Module Assembly Capacity, 2015 .............................................. 32




2.7 Top Ten Manufacturers 2015 ........................................................................................... 33

Figure 2.12: Top Ten Photovoltaic Manufacturers 2015 ............................................ 33

3. Production, Shipments, Inventory & Revenues, 2014/2015 ................................................ 34

Figure 3.1: Manufacturer Capacity, Production, Shipments & Inventory, 2010-2015 . 35

Table 3.1: 2015 Supply Metrics, Module Assembly Capacity, c-Si Cell/Thin Film

Capacity, Shipments, Announced Shipments1) ...................................................... 36

Table 3.2: 2015 Select Manufacturer Announced Shipments and Actual Shipments1)

.............................................................................................................................. 37

Figure 3.2: PV Industry Metrics 2015 ........................................................................ 38

Figure 3.3: Capacity, Production, Shipments and Inventory for the US, Europe, China,

Malaysia, Taiwan and Japan, 2005-2015 .................................................................. 40

3.1 Shipments by Region & Manufacturer ............................................................................. 41

Figure 3.4: 2015 Global Supply & Global Demand .................................................... 41

Table 3.3: Regional Shipments 2010 to 2015(1) (2) .................................................. 42

Table 3.4: Manufacturer Shipment Shares by Region, 2000 to 2015 ..................... 44

Table 3.5: Regional Manufacturer Shipments* 2000-2015 ..................................... 45

Figure 3.5: Supply/Demand Data for Europe, the US, China and Japan, 2010-2015 . 46

Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Positions at the Beginning of 2016 ..................... 47

Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Positions at the Beginning of 2015, Continued ... 48

Table 3.6: Summary of Regional Positions at the Beginning of 2015, Continued ... 49

Figure 3.6: 2015 Manufacturer Market Shares by Region ......................................... 50

Table 3.7: 2014/2015 Manufacturer Shipments US, Europe, Japan & Malaysia(1) (2) (3)

.............................................................................................................................. 52

Table 3.8: 2014/2015 Manufacturer Shipments Taiwan, China (1) (2) (3) .................... 53

Table 3.9: 2014/2015 Manufacturer Shipments, South Korea, Singapore, Philippines,

India, ROW (1) (2) (3)(4) ............................................................................................... 54

Figure 3.7: PV Manufacturers shipping >3% of Total in 2015 .................................... 55

3.2 Shipments by Technology ................................................................................................. 56

Figure 3.8: Technology Market Share % 2012, 2013, 2014 and 2015 ....................... 56

Figure 3.9: N-Type Monocrystalline Shipments 2014 and 2015................................. 57

Table 3.10: Technology Market Share % & Growth Rate %* 2005-2015 (MWp) .... 58




Table 3.11 2015 Shipments US, Europe, Japan and Malaysia (MWp) ................... 60

Table 3.12: 2015 Technology Shipments Taiwan, China (MWp) (1) (2) ..................... 61

Table 3.13: 2015 Technology Shipments South Korea, Singapore, Philippines, India

& Other (MWp) (1) (2) ................................................................................................ 62

Table 3.14: U.S., Europe, Japan, Taiwan, China & Malaysia Contribution to

Technology Shipments* 2014, 2015 ...................................................................... 63

Table 3.15: South Korea, Singapore, Philippines, India and Rest of the World (ROW)

Contribution to Technology Shipments* 2014, 2015 .............................................. 64

Figure 3.10: Country/Region Technology % Contribution 2015 ................................. 65

Figure 3.11: Technology % Contribution 1985-2015 .................................................. 66

Table 3.16: Shipments by Technology Category, 2005-2015 (MWp)* .................... 67

3.3 Global Cell and Module Revenues 2014-2015 .............................................................. 68

Figure 3.12: PV Cell/Module Revenues and ASPs, 2005-2015 ................................. 68

Figure 3.13: PV Cell/Module Revenues and Shipments, 2005 – 2015 ....................... 69

Figure 3.14: PV Cell & Module Revenues by Country/Region 2014/2015 ................. 69

Figure 3.15: PV Cell & Module Revenues by Country/Region 2014/2015 ................. 70

Table 3.17: Regional Cell/Module Revenue Growth* 2010-2015 ($ Million) ........... 71

Figure 3.16: Cell & Module Revenues 2000 – 2015 .................................................. 72

3.4 Market Outlook, 2015-2020 ............................................................................................... 73

Table 3.18: Five-Year Technology Forecast to 2020 (MWp)* ................................. 74

Figure 3.17: Conservative, Accelerated & Low Incentive Revenue Forecast to 2020 75

4. Selling Price ................................................................................................................................. 76

4.1 Trends in Average Module Pricing ................................................................................... 76

Table 4.1: PV Industry Cell/Module Revenues, Shipments & ASPs 2005-2015 ..... 78

Figure 4.1: Photovoltaic Industry Prices and Shipments, 1975-2015 ......................... 80

Table 4.2: Module Pricing Trends 1990-2015 (Current $/Wp)* ............................... 82

Figure 4.2: Module Pricing Trends, 2000-2015 $/Wp ................................................ 83

Table 4.3: Regional & Total Shipments and ASPs* 2000-2015 (Current Dollars) ... 84

4.2 Thin Film Pricing ................................................................................................................. 85

Figure 4.3: Thin Film & Large Buyer c-Si ASPs 2010-2015, Current Dollars $ .......... 87

4.3 Future Pricing Trends ......................................................................................................... 88




Figure 4.4: Price History & Forecast all ASP Categories, 1995-2025 (2015 Constant

Dollars) ..................................................................................................................... 91

5. Manufacturing Capacity, Utilization & Module Assembly 2014-2015 ................................. 92

Table 5.1: Average Global Capacity Utilization 1975-2015* ................................... 92

Table 5.2: Global Capacity Production, Shipments and Inventory, 2005-2015* ..... 95

5.1 Cell/Module Capacity and Utilization, All Manufacturers .............................................. 96

Figure 5.1: Regional Photovoltaic Manufacturing Capacity, 2005-2015 ..................... 99

Figure 5.2: Regional Photovoltaic Manufacturing Capacity, 2005-2015 ................... 100

Figure 5.3: Shipments, Capacity & Utilization, all Manufacturers, 2005-2015 .......... 101

Table 5.3: PV Industry Capacity, Shipments and Utilization, 2005-2015 MWp* ... 102

Table 5.4: Country/Regional Annual Capacity/Shipment Growth (MWp)* ............ 103

Figure 5.4: Regional Capacity Shares, 2014, 2015 ................................................. 105

5.2 Manufacturing Capacity by Technology ........................................................................ 106

Table 5.5: Crystalline Manufacturing Capacity & Shipments, 2014-2015 MWp .... 106

Figure 5.5: Crystalline Capacity and Shipments, All Countries 2015 ....................... 107

Table 5.6: Amorphous Silicon Capacity/Shipments* 2014-2015 MWp ................. 108

Figure 5.6: Amorphous Silicon Capacity & Shipments, 2015 MWp .......................... 109

Table 5.7 CdTe Capacity & Shipments 2014-2015 MWp* .................................... 110

Figure 5.7: CdTe Technology Capacity and Shipments 2015 .................................. 111

Table 5.8: CIGS/CIS Capacity & Shipments*2014-2015 MWp ............................. 112

Figure 5.8: CIGS/CIS Capacity & Shipments 2015 .................................................. 113

Table 5.9: Crystalline & Thin Film Capacity & Shipments* 2013-2014 (MWp) ...... 114

5.3 Overview of Global Module Assembly Capacity .......................................................... 115

Figure 5.9: Global Module Assembly Capacity, 2015 .............................................. 116

Table 5.10: 2014 Regional Module Assembly, Crystalline Cell /Thin Film Panel

Capacity .............................................................................................................. 117

6. Top Ten Manufacturers 2015 ................................................................................................. 118

6.1 Top Ten PV Technology Manufacturers 2015 ................................................................... 118

Figure 6.1: Top Ten Photovoltaic Manufacturers 2015 ............................................ 118

Table 6.1: Top Ten Manufacturer Technology Focus, Location, Module Assembly and

Cell Capacity 2015* ............................................................................................. 119




Table 6.2: Top Ten Manufacturers, 2010 to 2015* ............................................... 120

Figure 6.2: Top Ten Manufacturer Cell & Module Revenue Shares 2015 ................ 121




1. Introduction

1.1 Purpose and Scope

The Photovoltaic Manufacturer Shipments: Capacity, Price and Revenues report provides an

analysis of quantitative shipment, capacity, and module price data for the supply side of the

terrestrial photovoltaic industry. This report has been published annually since 1975. It fo-

cusses on the most recent two years of supply side activity also forecasting the next five years

of crystalline and thin film shipments.

The manufacturer shipment section updates long-term regional shipment history, crystalline

and thin film shipments and market shares, cumulative manufacturing histories, and manu-

facturing capacities useful in management analysis of the industry. The subject of industry

price behavior is covered in a separate chapter. The report also includes a chapter with

analysis on the leading manufacturers in terms of shipments for 2014 and 2015.

Manufacturers covered in this report produce technology as cells, cells to modules, and thin

film panels. Module assemblers that buy cells from technology manufacturers and assemble

into modules are considered demand side participants and though shipments for this group are

not analyzed in this report, the chapter on price will include a discussion about the pricing and

buying behavior of this population.

It is well known that the PV industry has been experiencing a period of consolidation. Table

1.1 provides examples of the c-Si cell and thin film panel manufacturers whose shipment in-

formation was used to prepare this report, some of which may no longer be producing tech-

nology in 2016. This list is not exhaustive and is meant to provide a representative overview of

cell and thin film manufacturing participation.




Table 1.1 Overview (Examples) of Photovoltaic Manufacturer Coverage (1) (2)

US Europe Japan

First Solar China Sunergy (Turkey) Kaneka

Global Solar Hanergy Solibro (Germany) Kyocera

SolarWorld Hanwha Q-Cells (Germany) Mitsubishi Electric

Suniva Photowatt (France) Panasonic

Stion SolarWorld (Germany) Sharp (3)

Global Solar Trina Solland Solar Frontier

Ascent Solar

MiaSolé (Hanergy)

Malaysia South Korea Taiwan

AUO SunPower Hyundai E-Ton

First Solar LG Solar Gintech

Hanwha Q-Cells Samsung Inventec Solar

Panasonic Hanwha Q-Cells South Korea Motech Solar

JA Solar Malaysia Shinsung Solar Energy NeoSolar

Astroenergy Malaysia Solartech

Jinko Solar Malaysia Sun Well

TetraSun Sunrise Global Solar Energy

TS SolarTech Tainergy

TopCell

TSEC Taiwan Solar Energy Corp

China India ROW

Astroenergy Moser Baer REC (Singapore)

Canadian Solar Tata Solar Power Limited WK Solar Power (Singapore)

China Sunergy CEL SunPower (Philippines)

Hanwha Q-Cells Udahaya Microsol (Saudi Arabia)

Hareon Solar Waaree Zhongli Talesun Bangkok

JA Solar Bangkok Solar Power

Jinko Solar

Ningbo Solar

Shungfeng International Clean Energy

Suntech

Trina

Yingli

Motech China

(1) Smaller manufacturers providing outsourcing cell capability in China, Taiwan, India and Malaysia, for example, have

not been specified in Table 1.1. This table offers a representative example of global PV cell and thin film current manufacturing capability.

(2) Module assemblers without cell capacity are not listed in Table 1 (3) In 2016 Sharp was acquired by China-based Foxconn. At publication plans to continue photovoltaic manufacturing

had not been announced.




The content of the report is organized into the following chapters:

Chapter 2, Executive Summary: offers a high-level overview of the primary data and analysis

presented in the body of the report.

Chapter 3, Production, Shipments, Inventory and Revenues, 2014-2015: This chapter includes

PV industry statistics important to understanding the industry’s competitive position and to rec-

ognizing emerging trends. These statistics include data on individual manufacturer production,

shipments and inventory, regional shipment growth, technology shipments (c-Si and thin films),

and trends in revenue over the last several years as well as a discussion of cost trends and in-

dustry profitability. The chapter ends with a technology forecast to 2020.

Chapter 4, Selling Price and Costs: Describes trends in global average selling price (ASP) for

cell/module shipments since 1995. Regression analysis is used to generate future price forecasts,

based on quantified historic trends that indicate price reduction as a function of cumulative ship-

ments (manufacturing experience). This chapter includes analysis on whether or learning curve

analysis is currently applicable to PV industry pricing given industry constraints such as inventory,

subsidies and aggressive pricing. Prices for c-Si technologies, thin film technologies, inventory

re-sales and system pricing will be analyzed. An estimate of costs will be provided. Forecast

projections to 2020 and to 2025 are provided for two different forecast scenarios, “conservative”

and “accelerated”.

Chapter 5, Manufacturing Capacity, Production and Utilization, 2014-2015: This chapter com-

pares industry cell manufacturing capacity to overall production and shipments. Wherever possi-

ble, an attempt has been made to identify shipments from inventory, and to separate these from

shipments of calendar year 2015. This has been done to ensure an accurate characterization of

PV industry capacity statistics. The chapter offers an analysis of: shipment volume versus ca-

pacity levels, shipments compared to capacity by four major regions, regional analysis of crystal-

line and thin film technologies among other topics. This chapter also provides an overview of

global module assembly capacity.

Chapter 6, Overview of the leading PV manufacturers in terms of shipments for 2015.




1.2 Methodology

Market research is the objective study of a subject using data gathered through primary research to

characterize, analyze and forecast demand and supply for, in this case, the photovoltaic industry. It

is a specific discipline where something is counted from point a, to point b, and on from b to point c,

and so on. The point is to eliminate double counting and arrive at specific metrics for the purpose of

defining a market or an industry. For the purpose of this practice, the raw material is counted until it

becomes a wafer/ingot, then to the cell, then to the module, then to the first point of sale in the market

(first buyer), then to the installation (end user). Thin film shipments are assessed using the same

methodology.

In the case of SPV Market Research the data go back >40 years, allowing for the identification of

trends over time.

A classic market research focus should be on quantifiable metrics (data), announcements are not

data. Announcements are made for a variety of reasons including: calling attention to something

upcoming or new, re-calling attention to something previously announced, to call attention to an

achievement (such as champion cell efficiency or commercial efficiency records), announce a

product release, or take attention away from something negative, among other purposes.

The purpose of market research is to provide an objective analysis that managers and executives

can use for business planning purposes.

The data presented in this report reflect primary field survey effort, interviews, coverage of major

technical conferences, review of available literature, and summary of government programs. The

data used for this analysis reflects information gathered from surveys of both photovoltaic

cell/module manufacturers (supply-side) and demand-side participants, such as photovoltaic dis-

tributors, system integrators, dealers, installers, OEMs, etc. Survey effort includes silicon feedstock

manufacturers, wafer manufactures, and end users of PV products. The analysis also reflects an

understanding of the manufacturing capability of the industry. This combination provides SPV

Market Research with a realistic and balanced basis from which to view the current and future pro-

gress of the photovoltaic industry. To avoid double-counting, SPV Market Research analyzed

shipments (sales) of internal cells. Shipments are considered an important metric, valuable to

management decisions.

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