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AlwaysAlwaysAlwaysAlways | | | | philipwebb.com.auphilipwebb.com.auphilipwebb.com.auphilipwebb.com.au
WELCOME
PhilipWebbEconomic Forecast
Guest Speakers : Rob Brooker & Enzo Raidmondo
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Philip Webb
Economic Update Forum
Rob BrookerHead of Australian Economics & Commodities, NAB12 November 2013
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Important information
DISCLAIMER: “[While care has been taken in preparing this material,] NationalAustralia Bank Limited (ABN 12 004 044 937) does not warrant or represent that the information, recommendations, opinions or conclusions contained in this document (“Information”) are accurate, reliable, complete or current. The Information has been prepared for dissemination to professional investors for information purposes only and any statements as to past performance do not represent future performance. The Information does not purport to contain all matters relevant to any particular investment or financial instrument and all statements as to future matters are not guaranteed to be accurate. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the Information should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability and suitability of the Information and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate professionals or experts.To the extent permissible by law, the National shall not be liable for any errors, omissions, defects or misrepresentations in the Information or for any loss or damage suffered by persons who use or rely on such Information (including by reasons of negligence, negligent misstatement or otherwise). If any law prohibits the exclusion of such liability, the National limits its liability to the re-supply of the Information, provided that such limitation is permitted by law and is fair and reasonable. The National, its affiliates and employees may hold a position or act as a price maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed within this document or act as an underwriter, placement agent, adviser or lender to such issuer.”
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GDP growth still below trend but improving in 2014 (mainly via advanced economies)
Still very depressed but recession may be bottoming out
Better fundamentals with moderate growth & potential withdrawal of stimulus causing volatility in financial markets
New stimulus packages implemented, QE has weakened Ұ and driven up equities. The bright spot!!
Focus on quality of growth rather than quantum, but mini stimulus to support H2 growth. Growth still robust but less rapid
Global economic story
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The money is easyUS Fed still buying securities from private sector
Starts to end in March?
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
Govt securities Mortgage-backed securitiesLending to banks Crisis-related facilitiesBank deposits Banknotes
US Fed balance sheet
($US billion)
Source: IMF
QE1 QE2QE3
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Global economic forecastsHalf of current global growth from China, India & Brazil
Bigger contribution in 2014 from advanced economies
4.14.24.04.2Trading partners
4.4
3.5
7.5
1.9
-0.3
1.7
2.9
2013IMF
weight2012 2014 2015
World GDP growth 3.2 3.5 3.6
United States 19 2.8 2.6 2.9
Euro zone 14 -0.6 1.1 1.4
Japan 6 2.0 2.1 1.5
China 15 7.8 7.2 7.0
Emerging Asia(a) 8 3.8 3.8 4.2
India 6 5.1 4.9 5.3
(a) South Korea, Taiwan, ASEAN
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Australian economic storyAdjusting to end of mining investment boom
Confidence better but headwinds remain
MINING
CASH RATE
AUD
FISCAL
Transition from labour-intensive investment to capital-intensive export: unemployment to rise, consumers to remain cautious
One more cut (maybe May) as unemployment continues to edge up
Downside from commodities prices, further cash rate cut & upside on USD as QE3 ends
Fiscal story no different under new government: preservation of AAA requires eventual return to cash surplus and fiscal restraint
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Australian economic forecastsWeaker AUD & lower interest rates won’t be enough
Mining transition & fiscal austerity see labour market slower
* at end of period; ** through-year growth
n.a.0.860.95n.a.0.900.93$US/$A*
3.002.252.502.502.252.75RBA cash rate*
2.12.42.32.02.62.4CPI underlying**
6.36.65.96.66.35.7Unemployment rate*
0.90.31.10.70.41.3Employment
2.92.42.32.82.22.9GDP
2015201420132014-152013-142012-13
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Confidence better but for how long? Business & consumer sentiment have improved
But business conditions remain below trend
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-1360
70
80
90
100
110
120
Business (s.a. LHS) Consumer (n.s.a. RHS)
Business & consumer confidence
Sources: NAB; Melbourne Institute-Westpac
Net.
bal.Index
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Confidence Conditions
Business confidence & conditions
Source: NAB
Net.
bal.
Net.
bal.
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Broad-based improvementSuggests influence of change of government
Interest rates & AUD also matter; mining also reflects China
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Manufacturing Mining Construction Retail
Monthly confidence indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB business survey
Net.
bal.
Net.
bal.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Transport Wholesale Services Finance
Monthly confidence indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB business survey
Net.
bal.Net.
bal.
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Signs of life in forward indicators?Sales, profitability & employment better than mid-2013
Orders & stocks improved but capacity utilisation weak
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Profitabiity Trading Employment
Business conditions: components
Source: NAB
Net.
bal.
Net.
bal.
77
79
81
83
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13-30
-20
-10
0
Capacity use (LHS) Orders (RHS) Stocks (RHS)
Forward indicators
Source: NAB
%Net.
bal.
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Conditions still multi-speedMining, manufacturing, construction, retail weak
Wholesale, transport better; services best
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13-30
-20
-10
0
10
Manufacturing Mining Construction Retail
Monthly conditions indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB business survey
Net.
bal.
Net.
bal.
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13-30
-20
-10
0
10
Transport Wholesale Services Finance
Monthly conditions indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB business survey
Net.
bal.Net.
bal.
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Interstate variations widening againConfidence converging across states
But conditions showing wide variation
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13-30
-20
-10
0
10
VIC NSW QLD SA WA TAS (trend)
Monthly confidence indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB
Net.
bal.Net.
bal.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13-30
-20
-10
0
10
VIC NSW QLD SA WA TAS (trend)
Monthly conditions indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB
Net.
bal.
Net.
bal.
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Conditions worsen in ASX300Confidence improved from SMEs to ASX300 firms
But conditions deteriorating across all firm sizes
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13-30
-20
-10
0
10
ASX300 (n.s.a.) Large (quarterly) SME
Quarterly confidence indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB
Net.
bal.Net.
bal.
-30
-20
-10
0
10
Sep-10 Jun-11 Mar-12 Dec-12 Sep-13-30
-20
-10
0
10
ASX300 (n.s.a.) Large (quarterly) SME
Quarterly conditions indexes(seasonally adjusted)
Source: NAB
Net.
bal.Net.
bal.
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Retail sector weakConsumers still saving to repair balance sheets
Lower interest rates will help but higher unemployment won’t
Jun2005
Jun2007
Jun2009
Jun2011 2013
Jun
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Household saving ratePer cent of net household disposable income
Source: ABS & NAB calculations
Seasonally adjusted Trend
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Mining cliff approaching?After 2013 mining investment could take 2% pts p.a. off GDP
And release 75000 jobs from mining construction
0
5
10
15
Dec-00 Dec-03 Dec-06 Dec-09 Dec-12 Dec-150
50
100
150
Commencements Work done Work yet to be done
Source: ABS, NAB estimates
Engineering construction: mining($ billion, CVM)
0
50
100
150
200
250
Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-15
Mining employment in construction Mining employment in operations
Mining employment
Source: NAB estimates
'000
persons Projection
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Structural adjustment to continueMining employment starting to decline
Adjustment process to go into reverse
Australian employmentChange since March 2008
-200
-100
0
100
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
'000
-200
-100
0
100
200
'000
Mining
Manufacturing
Education &
training
Health care &
social assistance
Sources: ABS; NAB
Retail
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Employment indicators still softLabour market looks softer than 2012
Labour market conditions% change on same month of previous year
-40
-20
0
20
40
Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13
0
1
2
3
4
Job vacancies (LHS) ANZ job ads (LHS)
DEEWR internet vacancies (LHS) Employment (RHS)
% %
Series break
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Forecasts of cash ratesCash rate expectations December 2013
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5
31/12/2013
No. of
forecasters
Cash rate forecast
Source: Bloomberg
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Forecasts of cash rateCash rate expectations February 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5
28/02/2014
No. of
forecasters
Cash rate forecast
Source: Bloomberg
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Forecasts of cash rateCash rate expectations March 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5
31/03/2014
No. of
forecasters
Cash rate forecast
Source: Bloomberg
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Forecasts of cash rateCash rate expectations June 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5
30/06/2014
No. of
forecasters
Cash rate forecast
Source: Bloomberg
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Forecasts of cash rateCash rate expectations September 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5
30/09/2014
No. of
forecasters
Cash rate forecast
Source: Bloomberg
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Forecasts of cash rateCash rate expectations December 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 2.25 2.5 2.75 3 3.25 3.5
31/12/2014
No. of
forecasters
Cash rate forecast
Source: Bloomberg
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House prices strength patchyStrong rises in Sydney & Melbourne
But still recovering from GFC elsewhere
Monthly dwelling pricesRP Data-Rismark hedonic prices
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Oct-07 Oct-08 Oct-09 Oct-10 Oct-11 Oct-12 Oct-13
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
$'000 $'000
Sydney
Melbourne
Perth
Brisbane
Adelaide
Source: RP Data-Rismark
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Price bubble unlikelyPrices broadly in line with household borrowing capacity
House prices constrained by job insecurity
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-1550
100
150
200
250
300
350
Average dwelling price (LHS)
Implied borrowing capacity (RHS)
House prices & borrowing capacity
Source: NAB estimates
$'000
Forecast
$'000
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First home buyer blues?But state govt schemes now focus on construction
Changes caused pull forward of applications
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Sep-07 Sep-08 Sep-09 Sep-10 Sep-11 Sep-12 Sep-13
NSW VIC QLD SA WA
Housing finance for owner occupationAll lenders, total dwellings, % first home buyers
%
Source: ABS & NAB calculations
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Supply shortage to continueRising unemployment & interest rates weighing on construction
But enough activity to prevent under-supply worsening
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
Dec-99 Dec-01 Dec-03 Dec-05 Dec-07 Dec-09 Dec-11 Dec-13 Dec-152.40
2.45
2.50
2.55
2.60
2.65
2.70
Completions (LHS) Population per dwelling (RHS)
Dwelling constructionCompletions & dwelling supply
Source: NAB estimates
Number
per qtr
$m per qtr
Forecast
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Employment security a key constraintAccess to credit & rising interest rates becoming less of an issue
Major Constraints on Existing Property
0.50 1.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50
Rising Interest Rates
Relative Returns on Other
Investments
Lack of Stock
Level of Prices
Access to Credit
Employment Security Q3'13
Q2'13
Q3'12
Not At All
Significant
Not Very
Significant
Somewhat
SignificantSignificant
Very
Significant
Source: NAB Residential Property Survey
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Overseas interest in new constructionHigh levels of interest from Asian investors
Source: NAB Residential Property Survey
Percentage Share of Buyers (Current)
Existing Properties vs New Developments
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Australian Resident
First Home Buyers
Australian Resident
Owner Occupiers
Australian Resident
Investors
Overseas Buyers Other
Existing Properties New Developments
%
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Prices likely to moderateSydney, Melbourne & Brisbane stronger than others
NAB Capital City House Price Forecasts (%)*
3.04.57.6-0.1-3.49.9Capital City Average
2.52.58.63.2-4.76.2Perth
1.52.01.0-1.0-3.96.9Adelaide
4.05.04.10.7-5.63.6Brisbane
2.54.56.8-3.1-3.013.3Melbourne
4.06.011.50.8-2.211.6Sydney
201520142013201220112010
*percentage changes represent through the year growth rates to Q3
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State of the Residential MarketPhillip Webb, 12 November 2013
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Market overview
Market outlook
Outer eastern hot spots
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Market Overview
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Victoria’s economic growth still slow
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Unemployment still stabilising
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Interest rates still at record low
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Confidence has improved
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Households are still saving more
Source: Reserve Bank of Australia
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Million dollar sales increasing
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First home buyers lowest on record
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Population growth again on the rise
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Victorian residential market over 30 years
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Melbourne residential prices over 10 years
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Auctions and clearance rates
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Vacancy rates relatively stable
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Rental Growth, Melbourne
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Market Outlook
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Consumer Sentiment v Clearance Rates
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Clearance Rates v House Price Growth
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Sentiment v Clearance Rates v House Price Growth
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Outer Eastern Hot Spots
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Outer Eastern Overview
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Top 10 House Price Growth (Quarter)
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Top 10 Unit Price Growth (Quarter)
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Top 10 Rental Yield Suburbs
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Top Rental Options
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Top Investment Options
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REIV Research
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Following the market
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