Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Transcript of Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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The Inquirer Briefing:Feasibility of a Fearless Forecast
Ms. Ma. Lourdes TiquiaFounder & General Manager
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast 26 days to go before May 10, 2010 Look at two sides of the coin
Political campaigns are all about numbers
Automation is an extraneous variable
Those who are ahead are so because of Air War
Those who are at the end are so because they havelimited money; ill-prepared or GMA tag
PGMA is not a lame duck president
The road to Malacanang has been changed!
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
3/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast 26 days to go before May 10, 2010
Character, organizational jumps and raidingwill define the last few days of the 2010
campaign. We will see tail enders making alast go (till the Fat Lady sings) and frontrunners canceling each other out in theprocess of trying to pull away.
If front runners engaged in mudslinging,voters will stay away from polls or anunderdog will have to be positioned.
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
4/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast Look at two sides of the coinIn this campaign, there are twosides of the proverbial coin thatmatters: surveys and the ground
war.Surveys is just a snap shot in apoint in time but is valuable interms of resource build up.
Ground war is crucial in termsof WOM and trait of voter(personal)
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
5/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast Political campaigns are allabout numbers, that coverscommand and market votes.
There are a total of more than85,000 candidates for only 17,000positions. A national candidatecovers 42,000 barangays, 1,495
municipalities, 136 charteredcities, 81 provinces in 17 regions.
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
6/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast Political campaigns are all aboutnumbers.
1. TRV = 48.3M
2. ETO = 74.5% or 35.9M
3. Votes to Win = 12.4M
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast Political campaigns are all aboutnumbers. If elections were heldtoday
AQUINO 17.9M
VILLAR 12.1M
ESTRADA 9.2MTEODORO 2.9M
GORDON 1.4M
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast Automation is an extraneousvariable
Time, Queues & Summer Heat
Back-to-Back 32 inch Ballot
One ballot per voter
One PCOS per 7 precinctsManual voting but automatedcounting & canvassing
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
ForecastThose who are ahead are so because ofAir War 1. Villar ranked 6th among Top 20advertisers for the First Quarter in 2010.
Villar spent Php1.23 Billion (up by6,575%) from Php18 Million in the 4thQuarter of 2009.2. Aquino ranked 11th at
Php526 Million in the 1st Quarter.3. Issue of paid for &
paid by
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
10/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
ForecastThose who are at the end are so because:1. Limited money to parlay into ads and pr
2. Ill-prepared: messaging, framing, positioning andorganizing
3. GMA factor (net satisfaction rating of -53%)
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
11/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
Forecast PGMA is not a lame duck president Allowed Erap to run
First incumbent president to run for Congress
Focused on the HOR than candidate forpresidency
Key appointments: DND, AFP, OES
Supreme Court
Controls IRA and PDAF releases Problems in automation (UV,
indelible ink, 30% manual)
Presidential Electoral Tribunal
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
12/26
Briefing:
Feasibility of a Fearless
ForecastThe road to Malacanang has been changed1. Supreme Court ruling on Peera changed natureof campaigning (prohibition attaches only duringcampaign period and not upon filing).
2. Villar air war offensive and saturated posteringcreated an impression of being No. 1.
3. Accomplishment and track recordhave been set aside in favor of anemotional brand.
4. To each his own; no party to relyon.
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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The Tipping Point
TheTipping Point is when Cory died and somewhere in thelabyrinth of the Liberal party saw the potential of an emotional
brand(a winning brand?) AQUINO.
As Gladwell said, Things can happen all at once, and little changescan make a huge difference
The virtue of an epidemic, after all, is that just a little input isenough to get it started, and it can spread very, very quickly.
The GladwellBarometer
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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BLINK Villar & Erap
BLINK is about rapid cognition, about the kind of thinking thathappens in a blink of an eye. When you meet someone for the first
time, or walk into a house you are thinking of buying, or read the firstfew sentences of a book, your mind takes about two seconds to jump
to a series of conclusions.
The GladwellBarometer
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
15/26
OUTLIERS Teodoro & Gordon
outliersin men and women who, for one reason or another, areso accomplished and so extraordinary and so outside of ordinary
experience that they are as puzzling to the rest of us ourunderstanding of success was really crudeis that we've been far
too focused on the individualon describing thecharacteristics and habits and personality traits of those whoget furthest ahead in the world. And that's the problem, because in
order to understand the outlier I think you have to lookaround themat their culture and community and family
and generation. We've been looking at tall trees, and I thinkwe should have been looking at the forest.
The GladwellBarometer
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Aquino has leveled off from Jan-Mar; ahead ofVillar by 12% because Villar took a dive.Villars base is soft while Erap is steady
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Aquino has leveled off in Feb-March; ahead ofVillar by 11% because Villar took a dive.Villars base is soft while Erap is steady
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Aquino appears to be slipping Mar to Apr;ahead of Villar by 11% because Villar took adive in Feb and is leveling off in Mar and Apr..Villars base is soft while Erap is steady
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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EC H
AL
LE
NG
ES
Automationsystem
30% manual =Php10.7M
Undecided ranges
from 10-15%=3.6M to 5.4M
Viral propaganda:Internet and SMS
Turn-out of NewVoters (est.40%)
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Oh I dont want to be so fearlessexcept to say that scenariobuildings are being made, as we
speak here
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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ject
Arag
on
On PamumulitikaMore than half of Filipino Voters believe that
Ang pagsagot sa ibang paniniwala ay pamumulitika54% - Talagang/medyo sumasang-ayon35% - Maarning sumang-ayon, maaring hindi20% - Medyo/Hindi sumasang-ayon
Ang pamumulitika ay patuloy na pagsasalita at pagbabatiksa kalaban
58% - Talagang/medyo sumasang-ayon
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
22/26Pro
ject
Arag
on
On PamumulitikaMajority of Filipino voters believe that
Hindi nagiging mabuti ang pulitika kung maraming awayasa mga lider at nakakalimutan ang bayan
74% - Talagang/medyo sumasang-ayon
17% - Maaring sumang-ayon, maaring hindi
8% - Medyo/hindi sumasang-ayon
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
23/26Car p
eDie
mIf mudslinging between Aquino & Villar
continues, they will cancel out eachother, opening the door for Erap. But
Erap has his own baggage.
At this point, voters will take a seriousand closer look at credentials, giving
Teodoro and Gordon the fightingchance.
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
24/26Car p
eDie
m If winning is a long shot for Erap andhe knows fully well that another
Estrada is prepositioning in 2016,2010 can be his window for
redemption by endorsing the leaderthe country truly needs.
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
25/26M
yfearle
ssfor
eca
st
Why Carpe Diem?
That is the Latin word for seize theday an admonition to enjoy thepresent, as opposed to placing all
hopes in the future
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8/9/2019 Philippine Daily Inquirer Briefing by Malou Tiquia
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Thank
you.