Philippe Glaziou Geneva, May 2012Geneva, May 2012 Vital ... PowerPoint Presentation Author: PG...
Transcript of Philippe Glaziou Geneva, May 2012Geneva, May 2012 Vital ... PowerPoint Presentation Author: PG...
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Philippe Glaziou Geneva, May 2012
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Vital Registration (VR) records with ICD-10 coding of causes of death
Estimation for countries with no VR data
IHME: Ecological modelling (41 covariates)
WHO: Mortality = incidence * case fatality
▪ Incidence disaggregated by HIV and notification status
▪ Case fatality derived from Bayesian model using direct mortality measurements
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Notification data biased under-diagnosis and under-reporting change over time
IHME (Seattle) - ecological modelling
WHO
▪ capture-recapture modelling
▪ expert opinion elicited within standard analytical framework
log(Notif ) = f (g1(Access)+g2(Deaths)+g3(HIV)+g 4(yr))
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Global Incidence
Global Mortality
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Mortality Incidence
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Incidence Mortality
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Incidence Mortality
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Two independent estimation exercises (IHME, WHO) with globally consistent estimates of incidence and mortality
Need to improve TB data at country level
Strengthen routine TB surveillance
Invest in sample vital registration systems (e.g. China, Indonesia) in more countries
Impact monitoring should be based on direct measurements