Philadelphia: The State of the City - The Pew Charitable...
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A report from March 2016 Philadelphia: The State of the City A 2016 Update Katye Martens/The Pew Charitable Trusts
Transcript of Philadelphia: The State of the City - The Pew Charitable...
A report from March 2016
Philadelphia: The State of the CityA 2016 Update
Katye Martens/The Pew Charitable Trusts
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OverviewPhiladelphia in 2016 is a growing city undergoing a sweeping transformation, most evident in the age and diversity of those who live here.
The city’s population has risen for nine consecutive years, up another 5,880 in the most recent count. The increase since 2006 stands at 78,732, a stark reversal after a decrease of nearly 600,000 over the previous five decades.
More compelling, though, are some of the factors that underlie the city’s growth.
One is age. As the United States has gotten older, Philadelphia has become younger—largely because of the growth of the city’s young adult population, the much-discussed millennials. A decade ago, Philadelphia had a median age of 35.3, only a year below the nation’s 36.4. In the most recent census, the city’s age was down to 33.8, while the national figure had risen to 37.7—a difference of nearly four years. Remarkably, this happened over a time in which the number of children in the city was declining.
Philadelphia is again a city of immigrants, as it had been for most of its history—but not for much of the 20th century. As recently as 1990, Philadelphia had barely more than 100,000 foreign-born residents. Today, it has in excess of 200,000, mostly from Asia, Latin America, and the Caribbean, with no single nationality accounting for more than 13 percent of the whole.
Partly as a result of this immigrant influx, Philadelphia is becoming increasingly diverse. Twenty-five years ago, only 9 percent of residents identified themselves as something other than African-American or non-Hispanic white. Today, that figure is 23 percent and growing—14 percent Latino, 7 percent Asian, and 2 percent everyone else—creating a richer and more complex civic landscape in one neighborhood after another.
This is a lot of change in a relatively short time. But other aspects of life in Philadelphia have not changed—at least not enough to make much of a difference.
Poverty, arguably Philadelphia’s most daunting and intractable problem, falls into that category. At last count, the city’s poverty rate stood at 26 percent, down slightly in the past few years but still the highest among the nation’s 10 largest cities. More than 400,000 Philadelphians live below the federal poverty line, including 37 percent of children and 43 percent of Latinos.
Helping to explain this poverty and the low median income rate is the low level of educational attainment. Only slightly more than 1 in 4 Philadelphians over the age of 25 have at least a four-year college degree. That’s better than in recent years but far behind many other cities. In Boston, about 300 miles north of Philadelphia, nearly half of all adults are college graduates; in Washington, 130 miles to the south, more than half are.
A number of other indicators also have improved over time but remain troublesome.
In 2015, for instance, unemployment in Philadelphia fell to 7 percent on an annualized basis, the lowest in eight years. But the rate remained higher than the national figure of 5.3 percent and greater than in a number of other cities, including Cleveland and Chicago. The city’s job count reached 680,800, the highest since 2002. But it grew by less than 1 percent in 2015, hardly cause for celebration when the national job total increased by more than twice as much.
The number of violent crimes, which has been declining gradually during the past decade, was virtually unchanged in 2015, while homicides rose by 13 percent from historic lows the previous two years. Philadelphia’s
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per capita homicide rate was lower than those in Baltimore, Cleveland, Detroit, and Washington but higher than those in Boston, Chicago, and Houston.
Home sales increased for the fourth year in a row, and residential building permits came in only slightly lower than the record number in 2014. But civic leaders and neighborhood activists expressed concerns about rising rents, the availability of affordable units, and the sustainability of the housing boom, particularly if the uncertainty and turmoil surrounding the city’s school system continue.
For nearly a decade, Philadelphia has been transformed by demographic trends that have produced growing populations across much of urban America. The question is whether those trends are forming a foundation for real progress on the city’s most persistent challenges.
Contact: Elizabeth Lowe, communications officer Email: [email protected] Project website: pewtrusts.org/philaresearch
The Pew Charitable Trusts is driven by the power of knowledge to solve today’s most challenging problems. Pew applies a rigorous, analytical approach to improve public policy, inform the public, and invigorate civic life.
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Figure 1
Portrait of the City
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Population 1,567,442
Percentage of residents who are:
Under the age of 20 25%
Age 20-34 27%
Age 35-54 24%
Age 55 or older 24%
Black or African-American 41%
Non-Hispanic white 36%
Hispanic or Latino 14%
Asian 7%
Other 2%
Percentage of residents who:
Were born in Pennsylvania 68%
Were born in other states 15%
Were born in Puerto Rico or a U.S. territory 4%
Were foreign born 13%
Speak a foreign language at home 23%
Number of school-age children 237,092
Number of students enrolled in college or graduate school 140,956
Percentage of workers employed by:
The private sector 83%
Government agencies 13%
Their own businesses 4%
Total housing units 670,445
Percentage of units listed as:
Vacant 14%
Occupied 86%
Percentage of units built before 1939 41%
Median monthly rent $936
Percentage of units
Owner-occupied 52%
Rented 48%
Where residents lived the previous year:
Same house 86%
Different house in Philadelphia 9%
Somewhere in the U.S. 4%
Abroad 1%
Percentage of residents without health insurance 13%
Percentage of adult residents who:
Graduated from college 26%
Did not graduate from high school 17%
Percent of adults who are:
Married or live as a couple 30%
Never married 52%
Divorced or separated 13%
Widowed 6%
Percentage of women who gave birth in the previous 12 months who were unmarried
60%
Median household income $39,043
Percentage of households with annual income of:
Less than $35,000 46%
$35,000 to $74,999 30%
$75,000 to $99,999 9%
$100,000 or more 15%
Percentage of population below poverty level 26%
Percentage of households with:
No vehicles available 31%
Two or more vehicles available 25%
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Figure 2
Philadelphia Population, 2005-15
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
After reaching its lowest point in a century in 2006, Philadelphia’s population has risen nine consecutive years, adding a total of 78,732 residents.
1.44
1.46
1.48
1.5
1.52
1.54
1.56
1.58
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Peop
le (i
n m
illio
ns)
1,490,861
1,488,710
1,493,309
1,499,731
1,514,694 1,526,006
1,539,087 1,550,584
1,561,562
1,556,686
1,567,442
Peter Tobia
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Figure 3
Philadelphia’s Changing Age Profile, 2005-14
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2005 and 2014, One-Year Estimates
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
In recent years, Philadelphia recorded one of the largest percentage increases of millennials of any major city in the country. From 2005 to 2014, the number of residents ages 20 to 34 grew by more than 120,000, helping to drive the city’s population increase.
0
0 0
20,000 40,000 60,000
Younger than 5 5–9
10–14 15–19
20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84
85 and over
Younger than 5 5–9
10–14 15–19
20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84
85 and over
Year 2005
80,000
80,000
60,000 40,000 20,000
0 60,000 40,000 20,000
20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000
100,000
100,000
80,000 100,000
FemaleMale
Year 2014 FemaleMale
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Figure 4
Median Household Income, 2009-14
Figure 5
Unemployment in Comparable Cities, 2015
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2009 and 2014, One-Year Estimates
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics, 2015
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Median household income in Philadelphia is starkly lower than in the greater Philadelphia metro area or nationally. From 2009 to 2014, the city’s inflation-adjusted income figure declined less than the region’s, but more than the nation’s as a whole.
Philadelphia’s unemployment rate declined in 2015 to 7 percent on an annualized basis, its lowest level since 2007. In the years since the Great Recession, the jobless level in Philadelphia has declined more slowly than in some comparable cities, including Chicago and Cleveland. The national unemployment rate in 2015 was 5.3 percent.
4.5%
6.2%
3.2%
0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Philadelphia Metropolitan area U.S.
$40
,878
$39
,043
$66
,280
$62
,171
$55
,418
$53
,657
2009 2014
4.5%
6.2%
3.2%
0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
Philadelphia Metropolitan area U.S.
$40
,878
$39
,043
$66
,280
$62
,171
$55
,418
$53
,657
2009 2014
7.0 %
6.9 %
6.5 %
5.4 %
5.1 %
4.4 %
4.2 %
12.3 %
7.8 %
7.0 %
Washington
Boston
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Houston
Baltimore
Phoenix
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Detroit
0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15%
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Figure 6
Poverty Rate, 2014
Figure 7
Residential Building Permits Issued in Philadelphia, 2005-15
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014, One-Year Estimates
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Philadelphia has the highest poverty rate of the nation’s 10 largest cities. Among our comparison cities, it ranks third and is among seven with poverty rates ranging from 22 to 26 percent. Philadelphia’s poverty rate has declined slightly in recent years.
17.7 %
22 %
22.4 %
22.6 %
23.3 %
23.6 %
23.8 %
39.2 %
39.3 %
Washington
Chicago
Houston
Boston
Phoenix
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Detroit
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
26 %
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Number of units
2,506
2,1641,972
947 984
2,175
1,5521,701
2,815
3,9733,666
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Philadelphia’s residential construction boom continued in 2015. The number of units for which building permits were issued, 3,666, was the second-highest in the last 20 years, down slightly from the peak of 3,973 in 2014.
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Figure 9
Percentage of Residents Born Outside the U.S., 2014
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014, One-Year Estimate
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
The percentage of Philadelphians born in other countries has increased gradually in recent years. At 13 percent, the figure is almost in line with the national average. The largest share of foreign-born Philadelphians, 41 percent, come from Asia, primarily from China, India, and Vietnam.
5.1 %
5.7 %
7.6 %
7.8 %
14 %
27.6 %
29.3%
20.3 %
20.5 %
13 %
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Houston
Boston
Chicago
Phoenix
Washington
Philadelphia
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Detroit
Cleveland
Figure 8
Sales of Residential Units in Philadelphia, 2005-15
Source: Kevin Gillen, senior research fellow at Drexel University’s Lindy Institute for Urban Innovation
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
In 2015, sales of residential units rose for the fourth straight year and reached the highest level since 2008.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150
10,000
20,000
30,000
14,2
61
15,6
01
13,4
28
12,2
38
11,8
36
13,1
44
14,1
10
16,4
93
21,
7832
5,5
1129
,14
6
9
Figure 10
Homicides in Philadelphia, 2005-15
Source: Philadelphia Police Department, Public Affairs Department
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
After historic lows the previous two years, the murder rate in Philadelphia rose by 13 percent in 2015.
377
406
331
391
302 306326
331
246 248
280
2013 2014 201520122011201020092008200720062005200
300
400
500
Figure 11
Homicide Rate in Comparable Cities, 2014-15Homicides per 100,000 residents
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Washington
Chicago
Houston
Boston
Phoenix
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Detroit
2014 2015
43.6 43.4
16.2
30.8
19.6
17.9
17.2
13.2
7.4
8.2
26.1
24.6
23.2
16
15.1
11.1
7.7
6.1
33.955.2
21.3
0.2
4.7
8.4
1.9
2.1
2.1
0.3
2.1
3.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Washington
Chicago
Houston
Boston
Phoenix
Baltimore
Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Detroit
2014 2015
43.6 43.4
16.2
30.8
19.6
17.9
17.2
13.2
7.4
8.2
26.1
24.6
23.2
16
15.1
11.1
7.7
6.1
33.955.2
21.3
0.2
4.7
8.4
1.9
2.1
2.1
0.3
2.1
3.6
Source: Homicide statistics are from police departments in all 10 cities; population numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
In 2015, the homicide rate rose in a number of major cities, including Philadelphia. Baltimore recorded its highest figure in history. Washington also experienced a big increase. Philadelphia’s rate of 17.9 homicides per 100,000 residents was near the median for the comparison cities.
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Figure 12
Violent Crime in Philadelphia, 2015By police district
551414
3535
3939 2525
22
1515
77
88
2424
26262222
6699
1717
33
111212
7777
1818
1616
1919
Source: Philadelphia Police Department
© 2015 The Pew Charitable Trusts
Violent crime in Philadelphia in 2015 was concentrated in specific areas of the city. For the third consecutive year, the 15th police district, which encompasses Frankford and adjacent neighborhoods, reported the largest number of violent crimes. In 2015, it was followed by the 22nd district (North Philadelphia/West) and the 25th district (Juniata Park/Feltonville).
Rank District Principal neighborhood Total
1 15 Frankford 1,517
2 22 North Philadelphia/West 1,443
3 25 Juniata Park/Feltonville 1,335
4 24 Kensington 1,211
5 35 Olney 1,137
6 12 Southwest Philadelphia 1,077
7 19 West Philadelphia 1,002
8 14 Germantown 955
9 39 Allegheny West 938
10 18 West Philadelphia 888
11 2 Oxford Circle 760
12 16 West Philadelphia 619
13 26 North Philadelphia/East 589
14 3 South Philadelphia/East 580
15 6 Center City/East 412
16 17 Point Breeze 398
17 9 Center City/West 353
18 8 Northeast Philadelphia 304
19 1 South Philadelphia/West 300
20 7 Bustleton 182
21 5 Roxborough 101
22 77 Phila. International Airport 2
<500500-9991,000-1,499>1,500
Total Crimes
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Figure 13
Fire Deaths in Philadelphia, 2005-15
Source: Philadelphia Fire Department
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
In 2015, Philadelphia had the lowest number of fire fatalities in the city’s history, down 63 percent from the year before. Officials from the Philadelphia Fire Department cited their efforts to install smoke detectors in low-income households as one reason for the decline.
52 52
39
3033 32
24
32
12
25
47
2013 2014 2015201220112010200920082007200620050
10
20
30
40
50
60
Peter Tobia
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Figure 14
K-12 Enrollment Trends, 2010-16
Sources: School District of Philadelphia, Archdiocese of Philadelphia
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
After years of decline, K-12 enrollment has stabilized in the past three years in schools run by the School District of Philadelphia and by the Archdiocese of Philadelphia. Enrollment in public charter schools has nearly doubled since the school year that ended in 2010.
139,228
148,017
156,361
136,240 131,894
130,075 131,698
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
District-run schools
Charter schools
Catholic schools
0
50,000
25,000
100,000
75,000
125,000
150,000
200,000
175,000
33,995
40,422
54,868
60,175 62,358 63,441
46,904
28,783 26,625 25,477 23,306 22,832 22,459 22,309
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Figure 15
Percent of Residents Who Are College Graduates, 2014 Adults 25 and older
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2014, One Year Estimate
© 2016 The Pew Charitable Trusts
The educational attainment of Philadelphians has been rising gradually in recent years. But with levels also increasing nationally, the city continues to have a smaller share of adults with four-year college degrees than most of the comparison cities. In the region as a whole, 35.3 percent of adults have college degrees, a relatively strong number.
13.8 %
15.1 %
27.4 %
36 %
38.4 %
46.5 %
55 %
30 %
30.4 %
26 %
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Washington
Boston
Pittsburgh
Chicago
Houston
Baltimore
Phoenix
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Detroit
Katye Martens/The Pew Charitable Trusts
