Phenol Asia Scenario - Elite Conferenceseliteconferences.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/K.pdf ·...

STRICTLY CONFIDENTIAL FOR PLANNING PURPOSE ONLY

Phenol Asia Scenario

16th International Conference INDIAN Petrochem 2014

By Petrochemical & Feedstock Trading Dept.

PTT International Trading PTE LTD

October 30, 2014


Agenda

- Phenol Value Chain

- Global overview of Phenol & Acetone

- Development of Phenol & Acetone in China & India

- We must survive - Who are we, “PTT Public Company Limited”


Global Phenol Balance by Application

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

BPA Phenolic Resin Nylon Other Total Capacity

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

BPA Phenolic Resin Nylon Other

- Phenol global demand is about 4-5% while operating rate will maintain only 80% in

average because of feedstock constrain and supply glut. - Nylon chain will be the important factor to boost demand of Phenol, especially in NEA.


Global Phenol Production by Location

----

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NAM SAM WEU EEU MEA India NEA SEA


Global Phenol Trade Pattern

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


- USA would resume to export Phenol but reducing caused by refinery issue.

- WEU will turn from exporter to importer due to feedstock constraint.

- Asia (NEA & SEA) will turn to be the key supplier since 2014. - India is the most impressive importer by continuous growth of domestic demand.


0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MMA BPA MBK Chem Dir Solvent Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

MMA BPA MBK Chem Dir Solvent Others

Global Acetone Demand by Application


Global Acetone Production

----

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


8


Global Acetone Trade

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


- BPA & MMA is key driver for Asia demand, however, SEA demand grows in slow pace.

- India is the most impressive importer by continuous growth of domestic demand,

especially Pharmaceutical field.


DEVELOPMENT OF PHENOL & ACETONE IN CHINA & INDIA


Global Phenol Production by location

----

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Mostly, PH/AC expansion takes place in Asia especially 2014-2016


Deep dive of Asia Development

----

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

NEA Capacity Development

Taiwan

S. Korea

Japna

China

----

200

400

600

800

1,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

SEA Capacity Development

Thailand

Singapore


Phenol Consumption

BPA

49%

PF Resin

24%

Adipic A

2%

Alk. PH

3%

Capro

7%

Other

15% BPA

25%

PF Resin

61%

Other

14%

PF Resin

66%

Agrochem

12%

Pharma

5%

Alk. PH

2%

Other

15%

BPA

23%

MMA

25%

MIBK

9%

Solvent

35%

Others

8%

5,800 global demand

BPA

11%

MMA

16%

MBK

6%

Solvents

58%

Others

9%

Pharma

66%

DAA

12%

Coating

9%

MMA

5%

Other

8%

Acetone Consumption


Phenol & Acetone Capacity Expansion 2014-2017

Company Location Country Phenol Acetone

Sinopec Yanshan Beijing China (+) 125 (+75) Q3, 2014

Kingboard Huizhou China (+75) (+45) Q3, 2014

Sinopec Mitsui Caojing China 250 150 Oct 2014

FCFC Ningbo China 300 180 Q1, 2015

Cepsa Quimica Caojing China 250 150 Q1, 2015

Kumho Yeosu S. Korea 300 180 Q3, 2015

PTT Phenol II Maptaphut Thailand 300 155 Q3, 2015

Ineos Nangjing China 400 250 2016

CNOOC Huizhou Huizhou China 220 130 2017

PTT Phenol I Maptaphut Thailand (+50) (+30) 2017

Mitsui Chemical Chiba Japan -250 -150 Sep 2014


BPA Capacity Expansion 2014-2015

Company Location Country Capacity Start-up

Nanya Plastics Ningbo China 150 End 2014

Changchun Plastic Jiangsu China 135 End 2014

Shandong Lihuayi Shandong China 120 2014

Sinopec-Sabic Tianjin Tianjin China 200 2014

Kingboard Yangzhou China 120 2014

Sinopec-Mitsui Shanghai China 150 2015

Bayer Shanghai Shanghai China 200 2015

1 M.TON of BPA consumes Phenol 0.87 M.TON & Acetone 0.29 M.TON

1,000

600

400

270

630

300

600

360

250

160

44 10.5

2014 2015 2016 2017

PH (PH) AC2 (AC)


China will more self-sufficient, while India becomes the key importers of Phenol & Acetone

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Phenol China may not able to export due to incentive tax concern

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

India China

Acetone


ADD will justify the trade flow of Phenol to India

USA

57% Taiwan

20%

S. Africa

8%

S. Korea

6%

Thailand

6%

Other

3%

2012 USA

23%

Taiwan

29% S. Africa

9%

S. Korea

17%

Thailand

10%

Singapore

6%

Other

6%

2013

Source: the Ministry of Commerce

46,571 50,258

90,378

118,536

141,545 160,844

2010 2011 2012

Import from US Total Phenol Import


Supplier ADD Import Duty

Remarks

PPCL (via MBK) $0 6% Import duty will become 5%

PPCL (PPCLshipper) $10 6% Import duty will become 5%

PPCL (Others) $172 6% Import duty will become 5%

MPS $0 6% Import duty will become 5%

Korea $0 7.5% ADD withdrawn on Feb 2012

Taiwan 47.29-78.97 7.5% Depends on Producer/Exporter

USA $159.63 7.5% New ADD investigation start May 2013

EU $0 7.5% ADD withdrawn on May 2013

Sasol $119 7.5%

Japan (MBK shipper) $468 7.5%

Japan others $547 7.5%

Note:-http://antidumpinglaws.com/content.php?id=Notification432014


Graphically Indian Phenol Flow

Company Location Phenol Capacity Acetone Capacity

Hindustand Organic Chemicals ltd (HOCL)

Kochi, Kerala 45 25

SI Group India Ltd Mumbai, Maharashtra 37 21

- Due to constraints of propylene, India still has no firm plan to build new phenol. - Hence, India shall rely on import with International price, especially China.

Phenol tanks categorized into two types

1. Molten (Heated Phenol); 15,000 MTA

2. Hydrate; 15,000 MTA

Tank located in Hazira/ Mumbai/

JNPT/Kandla

India Phenol demand is 22,000 – 23,000 MT/Month; however, India must to

import about 17,000 – 18,000 MT/Month

Hindustan Organic Chemicals Ltd (HOCL) = 45 KTA

SI Group India Ltd = 45 KTA

(As major phenol demand is PF resins

Then, the water is allowed to put 5% )

WE WILL SURVIVE!!!

20

“It’s not that I’m so smart;

It’s just that I stay with problems longer.”

- Albert Einstein


PH/AC compared with Feedstock Price

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Spread (RHS) BZ FOB KOR PH CFR China Dutiable

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

AC/C3 CFR China C3 CFR China AC

- Spread (PH-BZ) is calculated by PH CFR CHINA – 0.9 of BZ FOB KOR


Additional Supply of Phenol & ambiguous demand will limit the production in range of 80 – 85%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

World Asia China

+

Cumene

Bis-Phenol A

Phenol

Polycarbonate

Benzene Propylene

BZ * 0.93 C3 * 0.51 CU * 1.35

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ee/Bisphenol_A.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/Phenol2.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/2e/Benzene-2D-full.svg

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/22/Propene-2D-flat.png

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/42/Lexan.png


Summary

- Capacity expansion in Asia will accelerate the closure of inefficient PH/AC plants.

- Feedstock (especially Benzene) will severely push the pressure for PH/AC production

especially in Europe.

- Acetone will relieve the painful of PH/AC complexes.

- However, the operation rate should maintain only 80 – 85% to encounter the pressure of

feedstock and poor demand.

- Market expects demand from CXanone will improve the sentiment since 2017-2018.

PTT Public Company Limited

24


Ministry of Finance through Vayupak Mutual Funds

PTT is State Enterprise Co. Government through MOF is majority shareholder

Minority shareholders Local Investors & Institutions

Shareholders Structure

Total foreign shares must not exceed 30%, each foreign shareholder not exceed 5%

PTT Overview

GOV,

51.145

Vayupak,

15.268

Foreign,

11.859

Others,

21.728


Business Chain

26

PTT Overview


Source: www.pttplc.com/Files/Petrochemical.../Brochure_P&R_Biz_2008.pdf

Business Chain PTT Overview


PTT Public Co., Ltd.

International Trading Business Unit

Petrochemicals & Feedstock Trading Department January 2014

Petrochemical & Feedstock Trading

Department

Mr. Pichairat / Vice President

Olefins

Ms. Patchariya

Mr. Mongkol

Ms. Tuangporn

Aromatics

Mr. Settawat ([email protected])

Mr. Rawin ([email protected])

Mr. Waranyu ([email protected])

Mr. Sujirote ([email protected])

Mr. Thanapoom ([email protected])

Feedstock & By Products

Mr. Nattapee

Ms. Vathu

Ms. Jitlada

Other Chemicals

Mr. Wiroon

Mr. Monthat

Head of Operation

Ms.Sudaluk/Manager


Business Activities

Upstream Intermediate

Light Naphtha

Raffinate

Ammonia

Sulphuric Acid

Pygas

MEK

IPA

Ethanol

Methanol

Ethylene

Propylene

Butene-1

Iso, N-Butane

Benzene

Toluene

Mixed Xylene

Ortho Xylene

Paraxylene

MEG

DEG

TEG

Ethanolamine (Di,

Tri)

Ethoxylate

Ammonium Sulphate

MMA

MTBE

Fatty Alcohol

Glycerine

SM

Cyclohexane

Phenol

Acetone

BPA

PTA

Polyester resin & fiber, Antifreeze

Unsaturated polyester resins, PU, Plasticizers

Dehumidifiers,Virus control in Air Condition

Detergent, Cosmetic

Surfactant

Fertilizer

Coating, Resins, Latex paint, Oil additive

Octane booster

Biodegradable surfactant ,Detergent,

Cosmetic,

PS

Solvent, Fiber, Nylon 6 & 66

Resins, Plywood adhesives

Solvent, Phamaceutical

Coating, Adhesives, Resins, Sheet&Film

Polyester

Solvent

Solvent Solvent, Octane booster

January 2014

QUESTION & ANSWER

30

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