Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina...

Petroleum EconomicsPetroleum Economics

Istvan CsatoDepartment of Geological SciencesUniversity of South CarolinaJanuary 2002Source: EIA

World Oil DemandWorld Oil Demand

Declines:

• Oil embargo, 1973

• Revolution in Iran, 1979

• Economic crisis in Asia and FSU, 1997-98

Oil Consumption


Increments in Oil Consumption by Region

Largest increase: Asia


Oil Consumption per Capita by Region

Declines:

• Industrialized countries: oil price crises

• EE/FSU: collapse of communism

• Developing countries: no decline


Oil Intensity by Region

Continuous decline


Oil Consumption by Sector

• Industrialized countries: Transportation

• Developing countries: Other uses

Main area of growth:


Oil Consumption in the Developing World

China: 6.1 MBD South Korea: 1.2 MBDIndia: 3.9 MBDMiddle East: 5.3 MBDAfrica: 2.9 MBDCentral and South America: 4.7 MBD

Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:


Oil Consumption in the Industrialized WorldExpected Increase from 1999 to 2020:

USA: 6.3 MBDMexico: 2.2 MBDCanada: 0.3 MBD

Western Europe: 1.5 MBD

Japan: 0.35 MBD


Oil Consumption in EE/FSU

Expected Increase from 1999 to 2020:

FSU: 4.1 MBDEastern Europe: 0.2 MBD

World Oil SupplyWorld Oil Supply


More than 2/3 of increase in oil demand will be supplied by OPEC

World Oil Production by Region


Projected growth rate:3.4% per year

OPEC Oil Production


OPEC and Non-OPEC production


Non-OPEC production by Region, 2020


Top World Oil Producers, 2000

Country Production Estimates (million bbl/d)

1) Saudi Arabia 9.12

2) United States 9.08 (5.83 of which was crude oil)

3) Russia 6.71

4) Iran 3.81

5) Mexico 3.48

6) Norway 3.32

7) China 3.25

8) Venezuela 3.14

9) United Kingdom 2.75

10) Canada 2.74

11) Iraq 2.59

12) United Arab Emirates 2.51

13) Kuwait 2.25

14) Nigeria 2.15

15) Indonesia 1.56

16) Brazil 1.54

17) Libya 1.47

18) Algeria 1.43 Red: OPEC memberBlue: Non-OPEC member


Top World Oil Net Exporters, 2000

Country Net Exports (million bbl/d)

1) Saudi Arabia7.84

2) Russia4.31

3) Norway3.11

4) Venezuela2.66

5) Iran2.59

6) United Arab Emirates2.18

7) Iraq2.09

8) Kuwait2.05

9) Nigeria1.86

10) Mexico1.44

11) Libya1.29

12) Algeria1.22

13) United Kingdom 1.06

Red: OPEC memberBlue: Non-OPEC member


Oil Reserves

OPEC56%

Non-OPEC44%

814 B bbl

Total: 1030 B bbl

World Oil TradeWorld Oil Trade

Petroleum Economics Istvan Csato Department of Geological Sciences University of South Carolina...

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