PessimismPessimismvs.vs.

OptimismOptimism

Different approaches to the Different approaches to the ‘population-resources’ debate‘population-resources’ debate

MalthusMalthus

Task: View figure 13.57 (page 378 of Task: View figure 13.57 (page 378 of Waugh). Draw the graph and discuss.Waugh). Draw the graph and discuss.

Malthus believed that there was a finite Malthus believed that there was a finite optimum population in relation to food optimum population in relation to food supply and that an increase beyond that supply and that an increase beyond that point would lead to a decline in living point would lead to a decline in living standards and to war, famine and disease.standards and to war, famine and disease.

An increase in the population above the An increase in the population above the optimum limit would therefore lead to optimum limit would therefore lead to war, famine war, famine andand disease disease..

A A PESSIMISTICPESSIMISTIC approach approach

Thomas MalthusThomas Malthus (1798) proposed his (1798) proposed his work during the early stages of the work during the early stages of the industrial revolutionindustrial revolution when inadequate when inadequate food and clothing were common features food and clothing were common features in England.in England.

His argument was that population His argument was that population increases (geometrically) or at an increases (geometrically) or at an exponential rate if unchecked i.e. 1-2-4-exponential rate if unchecked i.e. 1-2-4-8-16-32 etc8-16-32 etc

Food supply at best increases at an Food supply at best increases at an arithmetic rate i.e.1-2-3-4-5-6 etcarithmetic rate i.e.1-2-3-4-5-6 etc

A A PESSIMISTICPESSIMISTIC approach approach

Malthus suggested that a rise in Malthus suggested that a rise in population, however small, would mean population, however small, would mean that eventually population growth that eventually population growth exceededexceeded increases in food supply and increases in food supply and that yields from a given field could not that yields from a given field could not go on increasing forever and that the go on increasing forever and that the land available is finite.land available is finite.

He believed the population-resource He believed the population-resource balance was maintained by various balance was maintained by various ‘‘checkschecks’:’:

NegativeNegative (preventative) checks are methods of limiting (preventative) checks are methods of limiting population growth:e.g. celibacy, delaying marriage which population growth:e.g. celibacy, delaying marriage which lower fertility rateslower fertility rates

He noted that there was a correlation between wheat He noted that there was a correlation between wheat prices and marriage rates i.e. wheat price increases prices and marriage rates i.e. wheat price increases marriage rates decrease (C18th)marriage rates decrease (C18th)

PositivePositive checks (decrease in population size due to): famine, checks (decrease in population size due to): famine, war, diseases i.e. anything which increases mortality and war, diseases i.e. anything which increases mortality and decreases life expectancy.decreases life expectancy.

Carrying capacities can relate to ecosystems and humans.Carrying capacities can relate to ecosystems and humans.

Rapid economic growth can impede economic development Rapid economic growth can impede economic development by exacerbating social and economic problems.by exacerbating social and economic problems.

Study the graphs on page 379 and summarise the points Study the graphs on page 379 and summarise the points made relating to links between population growth and levels made relating to links between population growth and levels of economic development.of economic development.

Checks fall into three categories;

1. Misery-(Shorten LE)

2. Vice-Warned against the dangers of practicing family planning which may lead to promiscuity

3. Moral restraint-Advised this e.g. delayed marriage and limit sexual partners.

This viewpoint also states that available technology to cultivate further would lead to soil erosion and a general decline in food production and the law of diminishing returns whereby with higher levels of technology only a small increase in yields would occur.

Criticisms to the theoryCriticisms to the theory•Too simplistic

•Ignores the fact that only the poor go hungry (marxist viewpoint) and that it purely results from the poor distribution of resources.

•Malthus did not see the changes in farming technology.

e.g. 10,000 sq meters (one hectare) or the size of a football pitch can feed 1000 people for a year (or enough tom feed the world)

This is backed up by the fact that in 1992 EU surpluses reached 26 million tonnes.

Task: Brainstorm the new technological innovations that have helped to improve food supply.

An An OPTIMISTICOPTIMISTIC approach approach (Alternative theory)(Alternative theory)

Ester BoserupEster Boserup (1965) suggested that an (1965) suggested that an increase in population would increase in population would stimulatestimulate technologists to increase food technologists to increase food production.production.

It followed that a rise in population will It followed that a rise in population will increase demand for food and therefore increase demand for food and therefore act as an act as an incentiveincentive to modify technology to modify technology to produce more food. In other words, to produce more food. In other words, “Necessity is the mother of invention”“Necessity is the mother of invention”..

As population increases agriculture As population increases agriculture moves into higher stages of moves into higher stages of intensityintensity with new methods.with new methods.

An An OPTIMISTICOPTIMISTIC approach approach

Followers of Boserup argue that food Followers of Boserup argue that food production is much more production is much more optimisticoptimistic than that of a Malthusian, as she than that of a Malthusian, as she claims that food supplies will stay claims that food supplies will stay ahead of population growth.ahead of population growth.

Innovations such as the Innovations such as the ‘Green ‘Green Revolution’Revolution’ introduced HYVs to introduced HYVs to LEDCs who witnessed increased LEDCs who witnessed increased yields from these processes allowing yields from these processes allowing more people to be fed.more people to be fed.

Limitations of Boserups theoryLimitations of Boserups theory

Based on closed communities, which apart Based on closed communities, which apart from the globe, is not the case as migration from the globe, is not the case as migration occurs.occurs.

Therefore difficult to test these ideas as Therefore difficult to test these ideas as migration occurs in areas of over-population migration occurs in areas of over-population to relieve population pressure, which to relieve population pressure, which according to Boserups’s theory leads to according to Boserups’s theory leads to technological innovation.technological innovation.

Also Over-population can lead to Also Over-population can lead to unsustainable farming practices which may unsustainable farming practices which may degrade the land e.g. desertification in the degrade the land e.g. desertification in the Sahel.Sahel.

In addition-The Club of Rome (Scientists and Administrators): Predicted in 1972 through the use of computer models, that if the then present trends in Population growth and resource utilization continued, then a sudden decline in economic growth would occur within the next century.

There is a need for a global equilibrium to include stabilization of population growth, use of resources, industrial growth and economic development with an emphasis on food production and conservation.

Research more about the Club of Rome’s predictions and environmental awareness campaign.

TasksTasks

Write a paragraph (82-83PRD) Write a paragraph (82-83PRD) stating how the Mauritius case study stating how the Mauritius case study supports Boserup’s theorysupports Boserup’s theory

Write a paragraph explaining why Write a paragraph explaining why Ethiopia supports the Neo-Malthusian Ethiopia supports the Neo-Malthusian perspectiveperspective

Summarise the points made by Paul Summarise the points made by Paul Erhlick (Neo-Malthusian viewpoint) Erhlick (Neo-Malthusian viewpoint) and write a side regarding his views.and write a side regarding his views.