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Pert master risk analysis tool
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Transcript of Pert master risk analysis tool
![Page 1: Pert master risk analysis tool](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022062523/547cb8f8b4af9fef608b4781/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Primavera PERT Master –
The Risk Analysis Tool
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Presentation Agenda• What is PERT Master ?• Project Risk Management Concepts• Introductory Demonstrations– Importing from Primavera– Quick Risk Templates– Running a Risk Analysis– Risk Register with schedule
• Advanced Risk Management– Schedule cost loading techniques– Probabilistic cash flow and profitability breakeven
05/03/23
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What is PERT Master ?
• PERT Master Focus– Specialist in Project Risk Management– Full Lifecycle risk solution– Faithful to project scheduling
• PERT Master Vision– “Improved decision making
through project intelligence”
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Management Reserve
Mitigation Cost/Effort
Contingency
Budget / Schedule Estimate
Maximize Profit
Tota
l Pro
ject
Cos
t
“Strategic Decisions”
“Maximize Return”
“Proper Allocation”
“Minimize Uncertainty”
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Life Value Proposition
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•High estimate uncertainty•Little Known about risk events
SANCTION
Alternative selection (rig
A/B/C, own)
-15% to +30% Estimate
Capital Investment risk
analysis
PHASE 2
FEED Front End Engineering
Design
+/-10% Estimate
Schedule based cost risk analysis
PHASE 3
Execution Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
+/- 3% Estimate
Risk event / register analysis
PHASE 4
Opportunity (e.g. oil field)
Wild Guess (WAG)
Operations Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
No Estimate Uncertainty
Risk event monitoring
PHASE 1 PHASE 5
Market/Investment risk analysis
“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN
•Estimate uncertainty – Low•Discrete risk events
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Life Value Proposition
05/03/23
•High estimate uncertainty•Little Known about risk events
SANCTION
Alternative selection (rig
A/B/C, own)
-15% to +30% Estimate
Capital Investment risk
analysis
PHASE 2
FEED Front End Engineering
Design
+/-10% Estimate
Schedule based cost risk analysis
PHASE 3
Execution Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
+/- 3% Estimate
Risk event / register analysis
PHASE 4
Opportunity (e.g. oil field)
WAG
Operations Detailed Eng. &
Procurement
No Estimate Uncertainty
Risk event monitoring
PHASE 1 PHASE 5
Market/Investment risk analysis
“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS” “DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”
PLAN YOUR WORK WORK YOUR PLAN
•Estimate uncertainty – Low•Discrete risk events
CORPORATE REVENUE ANALYSIS
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS PROJECT ANALYSIS
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Risk Vs Schedule
• Realistic /Most Likely
• Aggressive / Optimistic
• Cautious / Pessimistic
• Scale to Fit
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Types of Risks• Uncertainty
– PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three point
estimate distributions minimum, most likely and maximum
• Risk Events
– PERT Master handles risk events by using risk register to
enter possible events along with estimates of each one’s
probability and potential impacts on duration, cost and
project quality
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Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure
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Types of Risk - Uncertainty
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Duration/Cost
E.g. How long does it take to do wiring?
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Types of Risk
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Activity A
?Activity C
Activity BE.g. Do we need to replace old wiring?
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Branching – Probabilistic & Conditional
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Scenario: Renovate the Premises– Remove wiring (50% probability)– Repair wiring (40% probability)– Install new wiring (10% probability)
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Template Quick Risk
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Types Of Risks - Risk Events
• Single Impact
• Series of Impact
• Multiple exclusive impacts
• Multiple impacts to multiple activities
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Risk Register
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Risk Register
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Min Likely Max
• Range forms an envelope• One segment is selected for each envelope• Hidden critical paths revealed
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Monte Carlo Simulation
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7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17Min Likely Max
• Range forms an envelope• One segment is selected for each envelope• Hidden critical paths revealed
ITERATION
123456789
10 DAYS9 DAYS
14 DAYS17 DAYS
11 DAYS7
DAYS10 DAYS
12 DAYS6 DAYS
…
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PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology• Risk Ready State
– Schedule : Sound logic– Scheduling errors
• Risk Inputs– Estimate Uncertainty: “Quick Risk”– Risk Events: risk register
• Risk Impacts– Map risks to tasks
• Risk Analysis– Monte Carlo Simulation– Risk hot spots
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PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology
• Risk Response– Determination of Contingency– Mitigation Scenarios– Probabilistic cashflow
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Plan Validation: Schedule Check
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Initial Risk Inputs – Quick Risk Analysis
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Accuracy with Ease
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Risk Outputs
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