Perspectives on Afghanistan

HEIDI MEYER, MARCH 2006 –

OCT 2011

A PERSONAL VIEW

Afghanistan

The War on Terror Begins –2001

18 years later - Questions

Was Americas longest war worth it?

And what lessons have we learned abut

complex coalition operations?

Farkhunda Malikzada

In 2012

Farkhunda

Malikzada was

a 27-year-old

Afghan woman

who was

publicly beaten

and slain by a

mob in Kabul

falsely accused

of burning the

Koran.

What has Changed?

“These were not the Taliban who during their

six-year rule in the 1990s executed people

during soccer matches. In fact, the Taliban also

denounced Farkundha’s killing. Nor were her attackers the former militants and warlords who

were accused of beating and raping women

during the civil war of the 1990s.”

“These weren’t men who came down from

the mountains — they were educated city-dwellers who rushed to beat and murder a

woman based on hearsay,”

Stoning of Rokshana

Bachabaze – playing with boys

“It is on the increase in almost every region of Afghanistan - I asked local

authorities to act to stop this practice but they don't do anything”

Abdulkhabir Uchqun, Afghan MP

Kabul Bank Scandal

$900 M embezzled

$180 M recovered

Two five year jail sentences

“The political elites have ethnocentric agendas, exacerbate tribal rivalries and political intolerance, erode political will, and increase impunity for the powerful.”

Taliban homemade bombs greatest

cause of civilian deaths ……

ISIS in East Afghanistan

Opium – AFG production exceeds

world demand

The Bare Facts Afghan War 2001-2018

The Afghanistan War since it started in 2001 has cost the US economy $1.07 trillion. It will cost Britain £40 BN; £2,000 for every taxpaying household.

Corruption in Afghanistan is widespread; 172/180 nations in the 2019 Corruption Index. New York Times “corruption can no longer be described as a cancer on the system – it is the system.” 80 percent of Afghans say that corruption is a serious problem in their lives.

Killed: 2,386 U.S. military deaths, 20,049 US wounded in action. And 1,173 U.S. civilian contractor fatalities. By 2016,there were 444 British service members killed; 2600 injured; 5000 psychologically damaged.

1.3 million Afghans are displaced from their homes – many in desperate circumstances

Afghan police still routinely carry out virginity test on women in custody and use results to charge them with morality crimes. 12 year old girls are still stoned to death.

The Taliban has regained hard won territory that cost foreign lives inc. Helmand

ISIS has a strong foothold in eastern Afghanistan

And was it Worth it?

To answer this and related Questions –

we need to understand more about

…..

How the past has shaped the future?

The continued threat of ISIS/Terrorism?

how government corruption impacts the

future?

And what role could the Taliban play in

legitimate power sharing?

Map of Afghanistan with Tribal areas

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under

CC BY-SA

Pashtuns – sunni moslem

Tajik - sunni

Hazara – shia moslem

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Uzbek - sunni

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Map of Afghanistan and FATA/NWFP

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

A review of Afghan History from the 1970’s

King Zahir Shah

King Zahir Shah ruled from

1933 – 1973

In the last ten years of his

reign he tried to modernize

and reform Afghanistan.

In 1973 General Mohammed Daud

seized power from his cousin King

Zahir Shah and declared a

Republic.

By 1978 he is overthrown in a pro-

Soviet Coup.

The Peoples Democratic Party

comes to power but is paralyzed

by violent in fighting and

opposition from the Mujahideen

who are backed by the US,

Pakistan, China, Saudi Arabia,

China and Iran.

General Mohammed Daud – a Republic

The Rise of the Mujahideen

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-SA

Soviet Invasion 1979

Mujahedeen wage Jihad against a

pro soviet government

Soviets fight Insurgents ……by 1988

sign accord to withdraw

15,000 Soviet military dead…….

Soviet Withdrawal in 1989

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC

Devastating Civil war 1992 - 1996

Leaders:

• Burhanuddin Rabbani.

• Ahmad Shah Massoud – later leader of the

Northern Alliance.

• Hussain Anwari.

• Abdul Haq.

• Abdul Rasul Sayyaf.

• Abdul Ali Mazari.

• Karim Khalili

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

Pakistan’s Involvement – an Islamic

Revolution

Pakistan's intelligence agency, the ISI, wanted the Mujahideen to establish a government in

Afghanistan. The director-general of the ISI, Hamid Gul, was interested in an Islamic revolution

which would transcend national borders, not just in Afghanistan and Pakistan but also in Central

Asia. To set up the proposed Mujahideen government, Hamid Gul ordered an assault on

Jalalabad-with the intent on using it as the capital for the new government Pakistan was

interested in establishing in Afghanistan.

Hamid Gul –

Godfather

of the

Taliban

1996 Taliban takes Kabul – Imposes harsh

Sharia law

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND

Taliban ………a new form of jihad

“Brother …tell your

cousin he must hand

in his AK47” – Talib

enforcer 1996 – on

seeing this poster of

Rambo on a village

wall

2001 - Twin Towers

Osama bin Laden statement on 7 October 2001 in which he

directed a comment at “the United States … and its people:”

“I swear by Almighty God who raised the heavens without

pillars that neither the United States nor he who lives in the

United States will enjoy security before we can see it as a

reality in Palestine and before all the infidel armies.”

The legal Basis for international

involvement in Afghanistan

Taliban Government of Afghanistan was an accomplice to 9/11 and, therefore, a justifiable target

UN Security Council adopted its Resolution 1368 - expressed “its readiness to take all necessary steps to respond to the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, and to combat all forms of terrorism, in accordance with its responsibilities under the Charter of the United Nations.”

The US and the UK used Article 51 of the UN Charter, ‘the inherent right of individual or collective self-defence’ if an armed attack occurs, to justify their action in Afghanistan

Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 1386 of December 2001 was the mandate for a 5,000-strong International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) to deploy to the region in order to provide security and to assist in the reconstruction of the country under Chapter VII of the UN Charter.

UNSCR 1510 in October 2003 expanded the ISAF mandate to cover the whole of Afghanistan and thereby lay the groundwork for ISAF commanders to expand operations beyond Kabul.

Oct 2001 – Bombing of Tora Bora

The Northern Alliance – non Pashtun tribes (Uzbek,

Tajik and Hazara) unite with the international force

to fight the Taliban

Bonn Conference DEC 2001

Laying the foundation for US and NATO state building efforts in AFG

New constitution, an independent judiciary, free and fair elections, a centralized security sector, protection of minorities and women

Maximalist model of post conflict construction

25 Afghans (representing former warlords) under UN auspices set plan for governing the country (no Taliban at the table)

A new constitution with a strong Presidency and centralized rule

Hamid Karzai heads interim administration until elections in 2004

Bonn Conference DEC 2001

On nation building:

Britain – drug enforcement/poppy

eradication (Helmand)

Germany – training the Police

US - training an Afghan army

Italy – building a judicial system

Japan – disarmament

US Training the Afghan military

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SA

2003 NATO led ISAF Peacekeeping mission begins

Under UN Resolution 1386 NATO took the lead of the UN backed International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan on 11 August 2003 made up of mostly NATO forces

First out of Europe mission for NATO

4,700 troops from 28 NATO nations join the US, Canada and UK to provide security while Afghanistan builds an army and international civilians - led by the UN to nation build.

The Taliban Regroups

The Insurgency Intensifies in 2003

Taliban reorganized by Mullah Omar, its leader, against the government and NATO ISAF in 2003

In the initial years little fighting, but from 2006 the Taliban made significant gains.

Taliban, (and Haqqani Network, Hezb-e-Islami Gulbuddin) wage asymmetric war with guerrilla tactics and ambushes in the countryside, suicide attacks against urban targets and turncoat killings against coalition forces.

The Taliban exploited weaknesses in the Afghan government, one of the most corrupt in the world, to reassert influence across rural areas of southern and eastern Afghanistan.

NATO ISAF responded in 2006 by increasing troops for counterinsurgency operations to clear and hold villages and nation building projects to win hearts and minds. Violence sharply escalated from 2007 to 2009

While ISAF continued to battle the Taliban insurgency, the Taliban flee across the border into Pakistan and are given safehaven by Pashtun tribes and ISI

2009 Bush steps down for Obama……

This Photo by

Unknown Author is

licensed under CC

BY-SA

General Petraeus, US CENTCOM Commander persaudes Obama to announce a massive and expensive troop and civilian surge based on his Counter Insurgency Strategy (COIN) ; at the same time Obama says a draw down will commence in 2011 and conclude in 2014.

NATO ISAF Troop numbers begin to surge in 2009 continuing to increase through 2011 when roughly 140,000 foreign troops operated under ISAF and U.S. command in Afghanistan.

Counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine was at the heart of the Afghan surge campaign

Petraeus’s COIN doctrine said, instead of concentrating on the enemy you want to kill, concentrate on the civilians you want to protect

Counterinsurgencies are protracted by nature and require considerable expenditure of time and resources

“clear, hold, and build” -- in other words, push the insurgents out, keep them out, and use the resulting space and time to establish a legitimate government, build capable security forces, and improve the Afghan economy.

“Money is ammunition’’ – pouring vast amounts of money into local projects and government to rebuild an economy

This was based on the notion in 2009 that COIN had worked in Iraq

NATO ISAF Troop Levels

Obama

announces

troop surges

and at same

time

drawdown by

2014 to

commence in

2011

Draw down begins

in 2012

Draw down

complete in 2014

The Drawdown to Resolute Support

At the same time as announcing a 30,000 troop increase in 2009 Obama states that troops will begin to withdraw in 2011.

In May 2012, NATO leaders endorse an exit strategy for withdrawing their forces.

Major combat operations end in December 2014, leaving a residual force in the country known as Resolute Support to train Afghan Forces and as a counter terrorism force.

In October 2014, British forces handed over the last bases in Helmand to the Afghan Forces officially ending their combat operations in the war

On 28 December 2014, NATO formally ended ISAF combat operations in Afghanistan and officially transfers full security responsibility to the Afghan government.

The NATO led Operation Resolute Support was formed the same day as a successor to ISAF. In Jan 2020, about 9000 US and 5000 NATO troops remain in Afghanistan without any peace deal with Taliban – there role is primarily counter terrorism and helping to train the Afghan Army.

Trump administration wants to withdraw all troops but recognizes there is a terrorist threat still in this unstable – sometimes ungoverned - nation.

Big Miscalculations…………

Leaving a power vacuum after the Russians withdrew in 1989

Bonn – creating a maximalist government highly centralized with a strong presidency, in a country that has a tradition of decentralized regional rule.

Bonn – not inviting the Taliban to sit at the negotiating table full of former war lords hated by the Afghan people. Not fully pursuing reconciliation with the Taliban.

Not fully engaging Pakistan and ISI politically - who fuelled and still fuel the fight

Undertaking a nation building effort to create “Switzerland” in two years (2009 to 2011) from a country in the “biblical age”

Using blue helmets/NATO nation builders without a peace agreement in place

IC/US military pouring trillions of development dollars into a corrupt country and thereby exacerbating the excessive corruption to the point that “Corruption is now the system”

The slow pace and lack of resources allocated to build a legitimate professional police force

Petraeus: Counterinsurgency strategy (COIN) “Insurgencies are protracted by nature. Thus, COIN operations always demand considerable expenditures of time and resources.” – no time and too many resources

Obama: announcing troop increases at the same time as giving a timeline for withdrawal

Trump continuing to put troops in country…………..thereby perpetuating a vicious cycle of violence and provoking the Taliban

Lessons from Vietnam

Supporting a corrupt government

Insurgents safe haven in Cambodia

Not fully understanding the culture or local dynamics

Pumping huge amounts of international funds into an already corrupt system

Trying to win hearts and minds by protecting the people while at the same time ruining their livelihood, killing innocent civilians, linking them to a corrupt predatory government

An up hill battle to win hearts and minds at home

And lessons from the Soviets ………

Counterinsurgency (COIN) doctrine was at the heart of the Afghan campaign – but was it right?

Will Petraeus be thought of, in time, as a hero guilty of no more than a distracting foible? Or as most responsible for two disastrous wars?

His COIN doctrine said, instead of concentrating on the enemy you want to kill, concentrate on the civilians you want to protect – but from whom, a corrupt and predatory government or the Taliban?

“Money is ammunition,’’- fuelled endemic massive corrosive corruption with billions of $ pumped into AFG by the US and has created one of the most corrupt nations on earth

“clear, hold, and build” -- in other words, push the insurgents out, keep them out, and use the resulting space and time to establish a legitimate government, build capable security forces, and improve the Afghan economy – but for two years (2009 – 2011) with combat operations ceasing in 2014?

Deny insurgents safe haven – except for crossing the border into Pakistan?

This Photo by Unknown

Author is licensed under

CC BY-NC-ND

Our Ignorance

Failure to

Understand the role of Pakistan (and Central Asian dynamics)

understand history, tribal dynamics and cultural norms

Learn from the Soviets and their disastrous invasion of Afghanistan in 1979

understand the difference between mujahedeen and Taliban jihad

understand the deeply corrosive and destructive force of pouring money into a country that already had a culture of corruption

comprehend a truly biblical Afghanistan

Understand the devastating consequences when a country is stripped of its middle class and left with a political elite and a rural uneducated poor

Learn from history (Vietnam) the complexities of COIN with corrupt GOVs

Understand the complexity of nation building when 40 countries are involved to keep peace with no peace agreement in place

Believe a COIN strategy could work (when all the key elements were missing.)

The Future……..

Bringing the Taliban to the table and negotiating a power sharing agreement

Dealing with Pakistan/ISI politically

Curbing rampant corruption within the political elite of Afghanistan

Surgically applying international development money so there is full accountability and the money reaches the Afghan people not the political elite - over time

Tying international development fund to measures to cut corruption and protect human rights (particularly investing in women and children)

Building a legitimate police force and judiciary that can uphold law and order on both sides of that coin

Withdrawing international troops from country in concert with a political solution with the Taliban and Pakistan (maybe leave a small special ops force to keep watch on ISIS/Jihadis)

19 years later - Questions

Was it worth it?