Perspectives of the Perspectives of the World’s Freshwater World’s Freshwater

Resources under Global Resources under Global ChangeChange

Presentation by Olivia RoithmeierPresentation by Olivia Roithmeier

Part of the modul: Physical Part of the modul: Physical fundamentals of Global Changefundamentals of Global Change

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Content of presentationContent of presentation

Background facts

Different driving forces (without climate change)

Climate change effects

Perspectives of fresh water resources under global change

Our blue water planet earthOur blue water planet earth

app. 1.4 billion km³ water: 96.5% in oceans 71% of earth surface

only 2.5% sweet water: » 69% stored in glaciers and ice coverings» 30% in underground groundwater» 0.3% surface sweet water (permafrost, lakes, swamps, rivers)» 0.001 % in the atmosphere

water distribution and state of aggregation is irregular in time and space due to it's physical-chemical characteristics and existing geographical conditions

Lozan et al, 2006

Mean annual precipitation on Mean annual precipitation on continentscontinents

Distribution of water among Distribution of water among continentscontinents

continental precipitation is higher than evaporation from continents, difference is runoff

app. 41.000 km³ H2O/yr transported into oceans by river's (28.000 km³ surface water, 13.000km³ groundwater)

mean duration of water vapor in the atmosphere: 10 days WBGU 1997

(Sweet) water - Source of life on (Sweet) water - Source of life on earthearth

besides air to breath most essential for living: all plants and animals need water for chemical-physical-physiological processes

combination “necessary for living but rare available“ makes water to a valuable resource:» 66% of extinct species were living in sweet water

provides important functions: » natural (e.g. necessary for life, space for living,

transportation medium, earth formation by erosion) » cultural (e.g. food production, drinking, cleaning, use as

energy exchanger, waste disposal)

How to provide the demand?How to provide the demand?

actually app. 8% of this renewable resource sweet water used» 69% agriculture » 23% industry» 8% households

huge regional differences: 96% of industrial water used in North America and Europe

up to 40.000 embankment dams are employed; daily a new one build

all dams combined: fivefold the world river volume three quarter of natural runoff is regulated anthropogenic in

North America, North Asia and Europe sediment transport has increased 5x by land use (app. 45 billion t)

Water use per capitaWater use per capita

Daily water use (liters) per capita of households

USA 301

Japan 285

Switzerland 263

Germany 145

India 25

Sudan 19

daily water demand in Brandenburg approx. 90 l per day and capita (Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung, „Die Havel fließt rückwärts“, 01.08.2006)

Lozan et al, 2006, changed

Water stress: todayWater stress: today

app. 33% of the world’s population in countries under ‘water-stress’

app. 1 billion people without access to safe drinking water 50% of developing countries suffering on water-related

hazards

worldwide only 5% of house sewage cleaned developing countries: 90% of unclean water directly into surface waters

21st century increasing population changed patterns of water use increase of future pressures on water» e.g. we consume 8 times more water than our

grandparents did and with app. 8.5 billion peoples in 2025 we will have 1/3 sweet water less per capita

Perspectives of sweet water Perspectives of sweet water availabilityavailability

Atlas der Globalisierung

Important driver's effecting sweet Important driver's effecting sweet water resources water resources (without climate (without climate

change)change) population growth (provided same use per capita and year as 1990):

» most increasing demand in Africa and parts of Asia (often ≥ 2x)» in North America, Oceania and China up to 40%» in South America up to 60%» in Europe mainly stable, partly decreasing

today more than 900 billion people chronically malnourished, will increase if global crop does not enhanced for 60% till 2010

agriculture (provided no change in conditions of cultivation)» 2025: 18% increased water removal compared to 1995 (2x to

1970)» in spite of this increase, the proportion of agricultural water use

will decrease on global scale to 56% = -19% compared to 1995

Important driver's effecting sweet Important driver's effecting sweet water resources water resources (without climate (without climate

change)change)

households: world-wide increase up to 2–3% with huge differences » high increase in Africa, Asia; decrease in Europe, South

America» changed lifestyle linked with enhanced individual

demand: today water demand in India 25l/capita/day; tourist centers around Mediterranean 1000l/capita/day

industry: triples till 2025, main reason of increasing water demand

even without climate change water stress is expected to increase, especially in Central Asia, North Africa, the drier parts of China

Example: water stress and Example: water stress and population growth population growth

people (millions) living in water-stressed watersheds in absence of climate change (percentage of global population in parentheses)

A1/B1 A2 B2

1995 –– 1368 (24) ––

2025 2882 (37) 3320 (39) 2883 (36)

2055 3400 (39) 5596 (48) 3988 (42)

2085 2860 (37) 8065 (57) 4530 (45)

app. 1.4 billion people currently live in watersheds with less than 1000m³ water/person/year

Schellnhuber et al 2006

Water stress and climate change Water stress and climate change projectionsprojections

WBGU-Analysis comparing the of actual water cycle with a simulated climate based upon doubled CO2-equivalent-content» in a warmer climate more precipitation will fall on

land, especially in high latitudes and parts of the tropes and subtropes

» in contrast, effected by lower precipitation will be big parts of Brasilia, South-West Africa, west and north of Australia

Conclusion» it seems that the anthropogenic climate changes will

increase the water cycle, simultaneously there will be huge regional differences between who is how affected

» climate change has the potential to increase water resource stress by increasing flood risk in some areas and increasing shortage risk in others

magnitude vary between climate models but consistency in:» many parts of the world: precipitation in winter fallen as

snow will fall as rain whilst run off rapidly into rivers rather than be stored on the surface

» runoff: increase in high latitudes of North America, Siberia, Eastern Africa, Eastern Asia while decrease in much of Europe, Middle East, Southern Africa, parts of North and Latin America

By the 2050s» increased water stress by climate change especially under A2

population growth in Europe, around the Mediterranean, parts of the Middle East, Central/Southern Africa, the Caribbean, parts of Latin and North America

» “decrease“ in water stress by increased river flow in some regions but increased river flow mean not necessarily reduced water-related problems (higher flows occur during the high flow season increased flooding risk; without enough reservoir storage this “more“ water is not available for the dry season)

Water stress and climate change Water stress and climate change projectionsprojections

WBGUWBGU

WBGU 1997

WBGU 1997

Regional risks for hydrosphereRegional risks for hydrosphere

water shortage by increased demand/removal: Africa, parts of West Asia, North-West of China, parts of Pakistan and Mexico, West/South of India, western coast of USA and North-East Brasilia » overuse of ground water: e.g. Ogallala-Aquifers in USA» overuse of fossil ground water: e.g. Yemen, India, South East Asia» water discharges for irrigation: drying of the Aral lake or Everglades » salt water intrusion into deltas and coastal aquifers as consequence of

overused ground and surface water: e.g. in Israel, China, Gulf of California

water shortage by decreasing quality of water» Africa salination, sedimental transport in rivers» North America and Europe nitrate and biocides of agriculture

(surface water eutrophication), contamination by industry (toxins, acidification)

» South America high bacterial/organic contamination » Middle East salination by agriculture, salt water intrusion» East and South Asia organically pollution, pesticides, eutrophication

Effects of GHG mitigation on water Effects of GHG mitigation on water stressstress

increase of 2°C above the 1961–1990 mean by 2055» increased water stress for 500-1000 million (A1/B1

population projection), for 800-2200 million (A2 pop. proj.) and for 700-1100 million (B2 pop. proj.), depending on climate model

assumption of stabilization at 550 ppm: app. reduction of people faced with increased water stress by 15- 25% by 2025 and by 25-40% thereafter

These calculations are mean values on global scale not respecting the often substantial geographic variations!

Perspectives of fresh water resources under global change

climate change: most important and geographically extensive physical driver» likely alter magnitude and timing of water stress » effects on water resources depend on spatial pattern and rate of climate change

several drivers (demographic, economic, social, physical) can change exposure to water related hazards, access to water, future water supply and thus influence changes in global water resources, too

2050s: app. two times more would be adversely affected by climate change (under the most populous A2 population growth projections compared to the lowest)

climate policies reducing GHG emissions can reduce the impacts of climate change on water resources stresses without eliminating them

550 ppm stabilization: reduces people adversely affected by climate change to 30-50%

one of the major future risk factors increased demand of mega-cities and large population centers, e.g. in India and China (may have broad implications for environmental flows of water in major rivers of China, India and Tibet)

The impact of climate change on future water resource availability depends to a very large extent on the future state of the world and particularly on the numbers of people potentially exposed to water shortage.

Some ways out of water crisisSome ways out of water crisis

increasing awareness for this problem and possible solutions, incl. that everyone can and must change behavior, not only industry

increasing efficient use of water (e.g. removed water: 55% used and 45% loss by transport or evaporation) including technical and knowledge transfer to implement this

increase re-use of water and diminish first use

improved supply with “healthy“ water

adaptation to changed (time and space) precipitation pattern

if water is used by more than one state (intercontinental lakes, sea, rivers) the states must cooperate with each other to prevent water conflicts escalating

Sources of literature Sources of literature

Schellnhuber et al., Schellnhuber et al., 2006_Avoiding dangerous 2006_Avoiding dangerous climate changeclimate change

Lozan et al., 2006_Enough Lozan et al., 2006_Enough water for all ?water for all ?

WBGU 1997_Wege zu einem WBGU 1997_Wege zu einem nachhaltigen Umgang mit nachhaltigen Umgang mit SüßwasserSüßwasser

Atlas der Globalisierung, Le Atlas der Globalisierung, Le Monde diplomatique, Monde diplomatique, 2006_Sauberes Wasser – 2006_Sauberes Wasser – knappes Gutknappes Gut

www.geo.de, aurora/laifwww.geo.de, aurora/laif

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