Perspectives of Global Climate Policies · Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Berlin, 10 October 2008 7th...
Transcript of Perspectives of Global Climate Policies · Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer Berlin, 10 October 2008 7th...
1Prof. Dr. Ottmar Edenhofer
Berlin, 10 October 2008
7th Conference on Applied Infrastructure Research (INFRADAY)
New Challenges to Infrastructure Theory and Policy
Markets and Planning, Development and Sustainability
Perspectives of Global Climate Policies
Chair: Economics of Climate ChangeResearch Domain Sustainable Solutions
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Content• Humankind causes climate change.
• We risk dangerous climate change if we do not curb GHG emissions substantially.
• Ambitious emissions reduction is technically feasible and economically affordable.
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Content• Humankind causes climate change.
• We risk dangerous climate change if we do not curb GHG emissions substantially.
• Ambitious emissions reduction is technically feasible and economically affordable.
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Content• Humankind causes climate change.
• We risk dangerous climate change if we do not curb GHG emissions substantially.
• Ambitious emissions reduction is technically feasible and economically affordable.
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Tipping Points in the Earth System
PIK 2007
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TAR Reasons For Concern Proposed AR4 Reasons For ConcernProposed AR4 Reasons For Concern
2º CGuardrail
Reasons for Concern
IPCC TAR IPCC AR4 (Proposal)
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Source: Füssel (2007)
World map of wealth
Capital stock per personvery lowlowmedium
highvery high
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Source: Füssel (2007)
World map of carbon debt
Carbon emissions per person from fossil fuel burning (1950-2003)very lowlowmedium
highvery high
910
310
410
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101
102
103
104
Brazil
Mexico
Ethiopia
Russia
Egypt
France
Germany United States
India
Bangladesh
China
Japan South Africa
K: Capital stock (US$2000 per person)
P: F
ossi
l CO 2 e
mis
sion
s (k
g C
per
per
son
and
year
)
Fitting line: ln P=0.987 ln K+c
Wealth and carbon debt
Quelle: Füssel (2007)
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Content• Humankind causes climate change.
• We risk dangerous climate change if we do not curb GHG emissions substantially.
• Ambitious emissions reduction is technically feasible and economically affordable.
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Historic challenge
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Necessary reductions
Business-as-usual
Climate protection
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
PIK 2007
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What is an energy system?
PIK 2007
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Renewable energy
PIK 2007
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Nuclear energy
PIK 2007
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Fossil fuels
PIK 2007
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Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
PIK 2007
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Options for CO2 emissions abatement
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Necessary reductions
Business-as-usual
Climate protection
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
PIK 2007
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Options for CO2 emissions abatement
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
Nuclear
Renewables
Biomass + CCS
Fossil + CCS
Efficiency
PIK 2007
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Options for CO2 emissions abatement
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
Nuclear
Renewables
Biomass + CCS
Fossil + CCS
Efficiency
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Options for CO2 emissions abatement
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
Nuclear
Renewables
Biomass + CCS
Fossil + CCS
Efficiency
PIK 2007
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Options for CO2 emissions abatement
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
Nuclear
Renewables
Biomass + CCS
Fossil + CCS
Efficiency
PIK 2007
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Options for CO2 emissions abatement
Coal/Oil/Nat.Gas cheap, pure time preference rate 1%
Year
Gig
aton
sca
rbon
(C) p
er y
ear
Energy-induced emissions
Nuclear
Renewables
Biomass + CCS
Fossil + CCS
Efficiency
An increasing oil price causes more exploration!
Stern Report 2006, Fig. 7.6
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Drivers for CO2 Emissions Worldwide
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Comparison of USA, China, India and Europe
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Hard Coal: Global Distribution of Reserves & Resources
2,078 Gt = scaling factor 1
Global Reserves: 728 Gt
Source: BGR (2005), Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005
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Brown Coal: Global Distribution of Reserves & Resources
434 Gt = scaling factor 1
Global Reserves: 207 Gt
Source: BGR (2005), Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2005
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Option values of different mitigation options
Long Time Horizon
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0
No CCS
No nuclear energy *
All options
%
Oil/gas/coal expensiveOil/gas expensive, coal cheapOil/gas/coal cheap
No solar energy *
* : No mitigation-induced extension of nuclear and solar energy, respectively
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What are the macro-economic costs in 2030? AR4 IPCC
< 0.12< 3Not available445-535[4]
<0.10.2 – 2.50.6535-590
< 0.06-0.6 – 1.20.2590-710
Reduction of average annual GDP growth
rates [3](percentage points)
Range of GDP reduction [2]
(%)
MedianGDP reduction[1]
(%)
Trajectories towards
stabilization levels (ppm CO2-eq)
[1] This is global GDP based market exchange rates.[2] The median and the 10th and 90th percentile range of the analyzed data are given.[3] The calculation of the reduction of the annual growth rate is based on the average reduction during the period till 2030
that would result in the indicated GDP decrease in 2030.[4] The number of studies that report GDP results is relatively small and they generally use low baselines.
• Costs are global average for least cost appoaches from top-down models
• Costs do not include co-benefits and avoided climate change damages