Permafrost Carbon Network

PIs: Ted Schuur, A. David McGuireSteering Committee: Josep G. Canadell, Jennifer W. Harden, Peter Kuhry, Vladimir E. Romanovsky, Merritt R. TuretskyResearch Professor: Christina SchädelLogistics: Brit Myers, ARCUS

www.permafrostcarbon.org

Core funding: Additional Workshop Funding:

Permafrost Carbon Networkwww.permafrostcarbon.org

OBJECTIVE: Produce knowledge through research synthesis to quantify the role of permafrost carbon in driving future climate change

ACTIVITIES: 1) Organize a sequence of meetings and

working groups designed to synthesize existing permafrost carbon research

2) Formation of a consortium of interconnected researchers to disseminate synthesis results

3) Permafrost carbon network website4) Enhance early career researcher

networks

What is the magnitude, timing, and formof permafrost carbon release to the

atmosphere in a warmer world?

Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Climate

Permafrost Carbon Published LiteratureSearch Terms in Science Citation Index at Web of Science (ISI)Permafrost and Carbon in Full Text

2000–present: 94% 2005–present: 86% 2010–present: 69%

Myers and Schädel 2016

Network Goal: Use synthesis science to integrate knowledge ‘under the curve’ and distill findings for decision makers and publicYear

Num

ber o

f Pub

licat

ions

SEARCH: Knowledge Pyramid

Kelly et al. 2016

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 -

Lead meeting, Flagstaff

Kick-off meeting, Seattle

Lead meeting, Florida

Lead meeting, Stockholm

Lead meeting, Florida

1st Annual Meeting,

AGU

2nd Annual Meeting,

AGU

3rd Annual Meeting,

AGU

4th Annual Meeting,

AGU

5th Annual Meeting,

AGU

Lead meeting, Potsdam

• Bonanza Creek LTER Annual Meeting, Fairbanks, AK• NACP, Albuquerque, NM• EGU, Vienna, Austria• DOE Terrestrial Ecosystem Sciences, Washington, DC• Climate Science & Policy, Washington, DC• Center for Permafrost SG, Copenhagen, Denmark• Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, Tromsø, Norway

• NRC Polar Research Board, Washington, DC • IARPC 1, Washington, DC• CliC SSG, Geneva, Switzerland• Carbon Cycle Science SG, Washington, DC• CAPP Meeting, Stockholm, Sweden• SEARCH, Boulder, CO• IARPC 2, Washington, DC • PAGE 21• NGEE Arctic, San Francisco, CA

• NACP, Washington, DC• Climate in Cryosphere, Boulder ,CO• ASSW 2015, Toyama, Japan• GCP SSC meeting, Oslo, Norway• Our Common Future, Paris, France• IARPC, online • GEOQuébec, Québec City, Canada

• EGU, Vienna, Austria• Carbon Cycle Science SG, Washington, DC• TICOP, Salekhard, Russia• ESA, Portland, OR• US-UK Arctic Workshop, Cambridge, UK• AGU, San Francisco, CA

• AGU, San Francisco, CA • Arctic Encounter, Seattle, WA• AK Permafrost, Hamburg, Germany• Clic Forum, Copenhagen, Denmark• Soil Workshop, Boulder, CO• ASSW, Fairbanks, AK• Powell Center, USGS, Ft Collins, CO• XI. ICOP, Potsdam, Germany• Arcus, Washington, DC

6th Annual Meeting,

AGU

Permafrost Carbon Network MembersCurrent number of: Members: 350+Institutions: 130Countries: 21

Working Groups:

1) Carbon Quantity

2) Carbon Quality

3) An/Aerobic

4) Thermokarst

5) Modeling Integration

Permafrost Carbon Feedback to Climate

Schuur et al. 2008 BioScience

Digital database widely available 1mDepth distribution 3m

Database of rates (lowlands)

Aerobic incubation databasepools, rates (CO2)

Methane Emissions(Field)

ModelingRetrospective1960-2009Carbon, H2OActive Layer

New yedoma inventoryDigital database 3mDelta C Inventory

Anaerobic incubation Database pools, rates (CH4, CO2)

CO2 Flux Emissions(Field)

ProspectiveConceptualModeling

Response to T, environmentPhysical Fractionation of SOMMethod recommendations

Lakes Methane Emissions

Lability of Dissolved C

Vegetation

Hydrology

Methane Synthesis

Age of Dissolved C Tibetan Carbon

Benchmarking

Winter Respiration

Circumpolar assessment of permafrost C quality and its vulnerability over time using long-term incubation data. Schädel C et al. 2014, GCB

Estimated stocks of circumpolar permafrost carbon with quantified uncertainty ranges and identified data gaps. Hugelius et al. 2014, Biogeos.

The impact of the permafrost carbon feedback on global climate. Schaefer et al. 2014, ERL

2011 2012 2013 2014

Field information links permafrost carbon to physical vulnerabilities of thawing. Harden et al. 2012, GRL

An assessment of the carbon balance of Arctic tundra McGuire et al. 2012, Biogeos.

Implications of Warming Permafrost. UNEP 2012High risk of

Permafrost Thaw. Schuur et al. 2011, Nature

Environmental and physical controls on northern terrestrial methane emissions across permafrost zones. Olefeldt et al. 2013, GCB

The Northern Circumpolar Soil Carbon Database. Hugelius et al. 2013 ESSD

A new dataset for estimating organic carbon storage to 3 m depth in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region. Hugelius et al. 2013 ESSD

Expert assessment of vulnerability of permafrost carbon to climate change. Schuur et al. (2013). Clim. Change

Tundra ecosystems observed to be CO2 sources due to differential amplification of the carbon cycle. Belshe et al. 2013, Ecol. Let.

Characterisation of the Permafrost Carbon Pool. Kuhry et al. 2013, Perm. Per. Proc.

Causes of variation in soil carbon simulations from CMIP5 Earth system models and comparison with observations. Todd-Brown et al. 2013, Biogeos.

Analysis of Permafrost Thermal Dynamics and Response to Climate Change in the CMIP5 Earth System Models. Koven et al. 2013, J. of Climate

The Deep Permafrost Carbon Pool of the Yedoma Region in Siberia and Alaska. Strauss et al. 2013, GRL

2015 2016

A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH4 and CO2 production from anoxic soil incubations. Treat et al. GCB 2015Climate Change and the Permafrost Carbon Feedback. Schuur et al. Nature 2015

A simplified, data-constrained approach to estimate the permafrost carbon–climate feedback. Koven et al. 2015, Proc. Royal Soc.

Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia. Rawlins et al. 2015 Biogeosciences

Permafrost thaw and resulting soil moisture changes regulate projected high-latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions. Lawrence et al. 2015, ERL

Permafrost soils and carbon cycling, Ping et al. 2015 Soil

more at: www.permafrostcarbon.org/publications

Changing environmental controls affect the strength of the permafrost carbon feedback. Schädel et al. Nature Climate Change

Abbott, B., et al. Can increased biomass offset carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire across the permafrost region? Abbott et al. Environmental Research Letters

Thermokarst terrain: circumpolar distribution and soil carbon vulnerability. Olefeldt et al. Nature Communications

A model-based analysis of the vulnerability of carbon in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009, McGuire et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles.

Northern methane release dominated by climate sensitive lake and pond source. Wik et al. 2015, Nature Geosciences

Effects of permafrost thaw on Arctic aquatic ecosystems. Vonk et al. 2015, Biogeosciences

Permafrost Zone Soil CVulnerable Fraction~5-15% by 2100

10% of knownpermafrost C pool=130-160 Pg C

Similar in magnitude to biospheric sources

(land use change)Less than human sources

(fossil fuel)

Permafrost Carbon Emissions

Schuur et al. 2015 Nature

Network Building Lessons Learned

• Developing the human network a critical component of adding value to data observation networks

• Network engagement facilitated by a clear coherent science question

• Network production facilitated by engaging a range of scientists and stakeholders

• Built network is poised to ingest new observations and deliver results on the timeframe needed by decision makers