United Nations: Global Targets

Perverse behaviours? . . . World Bank funding depends on demonstrable progress . . .

Sufficiently analysed? . . . Allowance for ravages of famine, war, natural disaster . . .

Rational targets? . . . or aspirational/political

Wrong PIs ? . . . distorted priorities

(PM) Protocol

• Assumptions / Rationale in Choice of PI• Objectives • Calculations (power) & consultations + piloting• Anticipated perverse consequences + avoidance• Context/case-mix + data checks• Analysis plan & dissemination rules • Statistical performance of proposed PI monitoring +

follow-up inspections• PM’s cost-effectiveness?• Identify PM designer & analyst to whom queries . . .

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/default.stm

“If I had 50p for every prisoner that was liberated in error by the Scottish Prison

Service and the police when they were doing

the job I think I'd be quite a rich man”

Reliance: monthly performance management & penalty thresholds

Indicator: severity Expect

monthly

Thresholds

>A 0.02 >B0.001

Each Penalty

Late delivery 10 24 SMB 32 35 10/3

Late return 9 6 12 14 9/2

Key compromise 5 2 4 5 5

Prisoner disorder3+ 6 2 4 5 6 * prisoners

Serious assault 6 1 3 4 6

Self-harm 3 2 4 5 3

Overdue response 1 12 17 20 1/3

TOTAL 40 Variance*2, expect*1.1, perversity