Performance Council Meeting Agenda - CareerSource...

Performance Council Meeting Agenda

AUGUST 28, 2013

1:00 P.M. TO 3:00 PM Marriott Conference Center

Regency Ballroom, Salons D & E

I. Chairman’s Welcome & Opening Remarks Britt Sikes

II. Self Introductions Council Members

III. Review of Today’s Agenda Britt Sikes

IV. Strategic and Statewide Workforce System Goals Chairman Dwayne Ingram

V. Action Item

Workforce Performance Incentive Policy Mary Lazor

Employer Penetration Jayne Burgess Common Measures (USDOL/Florida) James Finch/Tony Carter CareerSource Florida Statewide Branding Implementation Adriane Grant

VI. Presentation

Florida Workforce Scorecard Sal Nuzzo/Martha Evans

(Florida Chamber Foundation)

VII. Open Discussion

VIII. Chairman’s Closing Remarks / Adjourn Britt Sikes

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Performance Council Meeting Summary--Thursday, May 9, 2013

Members Present: Members Not Present: Dan Baldwin Dr. Bill Law Mike Carroll Linda Reiter Kevin Doyle, Vice Chairman Matthew Falconer Don Gugliuzza Steve Parrish Steven Sonenreich Britt Sikes, Chairman Chairman Britt Sikes welcomed the Performance Council members and audience to the meeting. Chair Sikes provided an overview of the agenda and expressed his appreciation for the hard work of Council members, Workforce Florida and DEO staff, as well as the Florida Chamber Foundation, for their continued development of Council initiatives. Mrs. Mary Lazor, Council Lead Staff, was recognized to conduct the roll call of Council members. Chairman Sikes provided an update on Council members’ visits to local regional workforce boards indicating quarterly visits have been completed by Kevin Doyle, Don Gugliuzza; Matthew Falconer and Britt Sikes. Additional visits are scheduled for Dan Baldwin, Steve Parrish, Linda Reiter and Britt. The remaining three Council members have made commitments to scheduling visits. These visits will result in enhanced perspectives in learning more about regional best practices and as the Council considers performance measures. The Chair also thanked Lois Scott and her Team for traveling to the regions. Mr. Sikes also gave a special thank you to James Finch, Tony Carter and the Performance Team for the preparation of the regional performance reports. James Finch presented the report in Region 22 during Britt’s visit and there was much dialogue on the performance reports. It was encouraging to see the members of the local board and local officials to engage in the performance discussions. The visits serve as an excellent opportunity for a greater understanding of the reports and how local boards use the information to apply within their regions. The Council members proceeded with self-introductions and reported on their RWB visits. Mr. Kevin Doyle visited Region 8, WorkSource, with Governor Scott attending, as well as local Board Member Dr. Linda Sparks. Conversations with the regional staff were productive and the visit was helpful to see the role in serving job seekers. Mr. Doyle is planning his next visit in a rural area. Mr. Don Gugliuzza visited Region 24, Southwest Florida Works. Chairman Ingram also participated in this visit. The Regional Board had great community participation and a highlight of the visit the achievement of the region’s youth programs. Mr. Gugliuzza extended his compliments to Lois Scott on her performance presentation and clarity in presenting the performance reports. Mrs. Lazor confirmed Mr. Matthew Falconer’s visit and the commitment of Mr. Dan Baldwin’s to visit Region 16. The Chair noted the Council members may also consider visiting one-stop centers or special visits and recognized the Performance Council members for responding to Chairman Ingram’s charge and the Council’s commitment to visit one region each quarter.

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Mrs. Mary Lazor recognized Mr. Rick Sessa, Florida Chamber Foundation, for his continued development of Phase II of the Florida Workforce Scorecard and announced Mr. Tony Carvajal’s appointment as Executive Vice President of the Foundation. Mary briefed the Council on a recent conference call with President Hart, the Foundation staff and a representative completing a major US Chamber research project. Florida has been recognized at the national level for the importance of providing businesses and consumers at-large with workforce and economic indicators through the Florida Workforce Scorecard. Mr. Sessa introduced Mr. Sal Nuzzo who will be working with the Workforce Scorecard. Mr. Sessa reported on progress with regional analyses and findings related to the workforce and economic pillars within the Chamber Foundation’s Six Pillar system. Mr. Sessa noted continued performance gains in the Talent Supply System with Florida ranking second only to Hong Kong for its average fourth grade reading score and gains in mathematics. Florida students’ perform higher in fourth grade testing scores as compared with middle and high school levels. The Foundation will continue to look at how Florida compares on national and international levels, specifically in career and college-readiness. Within the Innovation and Economic Development pillar, the Foundation compiles data primarily in the import and export areas. Florida’s export growth slowed significantly in 2012 as compared to 2011. However, much of the 2012 growth was a result of price inflation on Florida exports. The Foundation will continue to monitor the import and export levels. Within the Business Climate and Competitiveness pillar, the Foundation compiles data on economic/general business indicators and workforce performance indicators. Florida’s economy expanded at a faster rate during the first three months of 2013 when compared to the previous quarter. Expectations are that sequestration will slow growth in the short-run; however, the private sector appears to be expanding at a moderate rate. Mr. Sessa reported on the U.S. real GDP growth of 2.5% annualized rate in the first quarter, 2013. Updates were provided on workforce and economic indicators during the past quarter and annually. There is a positive trend in private building permits indicating stronger future economic activity. The Foundation staff is also computing labor market ratios of unemployed individuals to Help Wanted Online Ads as compared to the unemployment rate in each region. The Council also received information by region on the average quarterly wage rate. The Foundation staff is working in coordination with the DEO Performance Unit and with the DEO Labor Market Statistics Center to continue to build regional workforce and economic indicators on the Workforce Scorecard. Future additions to the Scorecard include a Data Description Guide and a User Orientation Guide. Chair Sikes expressed his appreciation to Mr. Sikes and the value of the Workforce Scorecard. He noted Mr. Sessa has received a Doctoral Fellowship to attend Clemson University and congratulated Rick on this honor. The Chair introduced Mr. James Finch and Mr. Telly Buckles to present the Florida Workforce Integrated Performance Reporting System (FWIPRS). Mr. Finch noted this is a project sponsored by the Performance Council through WFI funding to develop a system for use by regional workforce board staff/Executive Directors/Board members; the WFI Board and strategic planners. Mr. Finch noted the system includes many rich data sources and allows for user-friendly queries and expressed his appreciation for the Council’s support and to Mr. Telly Buckles for directing the aggressive development and launch of FWIPRS. Mr. Buckles presented the Council with updates since the April 1st FWIRS launch. Mr. Buckles shared with the members how they can register with FWIPRS and proceeded with demonstrating strategic and tactical components of the site. Specifically, a demonstration was provided on the Probable Placement Report and the benefits to the regions. Descriptors of the data/screen shots were also included. This Report allows regions to follow-up on clients served and ultimate placements to include in the regional performance placement reports. Mr. Mason Jackson asked if this Report is in response to his January

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request and Mr. Finch confirmed. Mr. Richard Williams, Region 3, requested assistance in tracking individuals prior to exit so regional staff may assist for positive outcomes. Mr. Buckles shared the development of the Approaching Soft Exit Report, the benefits to the regions and the capacity to compile data to assist specific targeted populations. Mr. Buckles identified future enhancements to encourage feedback; respond to new initiatives and track additional opportunities such as the Hire Florida Graduates (HireFloridaGrads.com). Additional focus areas will be the Wagner-Peyser Job Seeker Populations; expanded Workforce Investment Act metrics; the Welfare Transition Program and the SNAP program. The Florida Business Penetration Model will also be presented on the site in the future in a dynamic manner. Mr. Buckles demonstrated a new tool for regions to map the location of job seekers, employers, etc. Region 17 has utilized this tool in their Race to Place Campaign. Vice Chair Kevin Doyle expressed appreciation on the robust data available, user-friendly system and the hard work to develop FWIPRS. Mr. Finch noted the goal is to continue to build a hands-on, flexible tool for responding to requests. Mr. Buckles noted public log-in is now available and individuals may contact Mr. Buckles to register. Chair Sikes recognized the development of the Florida Workforce Integrated Performance Reporting System (FWIPRS) within a year; the transparency of the System; removing bureaucracy and adding speed in the utilization of data and on behalf of the Council--he looks forward to further roll-out of the System. Mr. James Finch and Mr. Tony Carter were introduced to provide an update on the USDOL Common Measures. Mr. Finch reviewed the state’s renegotiation of Common Measure goals with the USDOL in September. At the urging of Governor Scott, Florida chose to raise the performance standards bar in establishing the goals for Common Measures. Mr. Carter briefed the Council on the initial 2005 implementation of Florida’s Common Measures to serve as an assessment tool. The Common Measures consists of three (3) WIA Adult Measures; three (3) WIA Dislocated Worker Measures; three (3) WIA Youth Measures and three (3) Wagner-Peyser Measures. Mr. Carter noted Florida is exceeding in three (3) of the twelve (12) Common Measure goals—Dislocated Worker Employment Retention; Youth Placement in Employment/Education and Youth Literacy/Numeracy Gains. The remaining nine Common Measures are meeting the Federal standard—80% of the negotiated goal (three (3) Wagner-Peyser Common Measures as of the second quarter). Once a state reaches 90% of negotiated goals, the state is eligible for incentive awards. Mr. Carter provided further trend data on anticipated progress toward goals. Mr. Carter noted the renegotiation deadline for this year is May 31st to submit initial proposals for the 2013-2014 Common Measure goals. Mr. Finch shared with the Council these data sets are included in the regional performance reports during RWB visits. Mr. Mason Jackson briefed the Council on local contract negotiations and the importance of finalizing negotiated common measures prior to July 1. Chair Sikes commended Mason and his local board for their engagement in reviewing their performance reports and the DEO Performance Team for formatting the reports to promote local engagement. Mrs. Mary Lazor introduced Ms. Erica Mott and Mr. Joseph Gaines to present an overview of Training Services to regional workforce boards. Mary also recognized Lois Scott and the workgroup established to review local training needs over the past year in order to develop the new strategic training program. Ms. Erica Mott, Strategic Training Coordination Unit, provided an overview of the charge to the Strategic Planning Team to create and coordinate training to regional workforce boards and to ensure that training needs are met comprehensively throughout the year. Ms. Mott briefed the Council on Tier One training consisting of nineteen courses broken into seven main topics representing broad areas of the workforce system. Priorities included developing training programs which were cost effective; updated over time and expandable. Since July 2012, 796 staff members were assigned to complete the Tier One curriculum with 408 completing the training. The official Tier One Certificate Exam was launched in February 2013. Of the 180 staff members taking the Tier One Exam, 135 have passed the Exam. Tier Two is now in the developmental stages to include Welfare Transition, WIA on-site training and uploading additional materials to meet the needs of the regional workforce boards. Mary recognized Erica and her Team for the discipline to develop comprehensive exams based on extensive curriculum reflecting very high standards.

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Ms. Mott closed her presentation with updates on the 29 on-site training sessions; 900 certificates of attendance (11,000 external Continuing Education Unit hours); posting of the training materials on the DEO web site; live webinars; PowerPoint presentations; and Adobe Connect sessions. The Strategic Training Coordination Unit will continue their work to include creating programmatic modules; including all RWB staff in Adobe Connect; continuing with Tier Three modules and including “Region’s Best Practices to training sessions. Chair Sikes expressed his appreciation to include “Region’s Best Practices” in the training sessions and the delivery and the speed to share with other regions. On behalf of the Council, the Chair noted training within local regions is a high priority and most importantly receiving feedback from local regions. Chair Sikes recognized the Strategic Training Team and the Training Unit staff for their success in developing and implementing the Strategic Training programs. The Chair asked for additional comments or questions from the meeting participants. Hearing none, Chair Sikes shared with the Council Chairman Ingram has identified Board meeting priorities for the upcoming meetings. During the May Board meeting, the focus will be on Budget and Branding and in August the focus will be on Performance and Efficiencies. Mr. Sikes noted Chair Ingram and President Hart will be working with the WFI and DEO teams to place a high priority on intentional and purposeful services. Chair Sikes recognized the support of Board sponsors and the generosity of Chair Ingram and his wife, Bonnie, in hosting the Board reception on Tuesday evening. Chair Sikes expressed his gratitude to the Council, the presenters and members of the audience. The meeting was adjourned at 11:33 am.

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Action Item 1

PERFORMANCE INCENTIVE POLICY

* * * * * * * * * * *

The Workforce Florida board of directors shall annually establish performance measures aligned with Board strategic goals and objectives for the purpose of recognizing regional workforce boards’ efforts towards targeted strategies and rewarding increased outcomes. Workforce Florida, Inc., upon approval by the Board, may grant recognition or financial awards, based upon established performance measures. This policy shall replace all preceding incentive award policies.

* * * * * * * * * *

NEEDED ACTION

Approval of the Performance Council proposed performance incentive policy recommendation and approval of the 2013-2014 performance evaluation criteria. Direct staff to revise the previous state incentive policy guidance to incorporate recommendations as approved with reporting guidelines.

Workforce Florida Board of Directors Quarterly Meeting

August 29, 2013

Approved____________________

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PERFORMANCE INCENTIVE POLICY 2013-2014 EVALUATION CRITERIA

COMMON MEASURES

Goal: To provide the highest level of services within Florida’s workforce investment programs aligned with the Workforce Florida Board of Directors strategic and workforce system goals. Objective: Each Regional Workforce Board will achieve local Common Measure target goals consistent with established state goals as approved by the US Department of Labor. Criteria: Common Measure goals are based on individual regional regression models with regional progress evaluated on each regions progress toward meeting the overall state Common Measure goals. Performance Incentive Awards are conditioned upon the state meeting its federally negotiated Common Measure Goals. Methodology: Common Measure Local Targets will be identified within two performance incentive gateways: Gateway 1—Recognition to Regional Workforce Boards achieving 80% of all Common Measure Local Targets Gateway 2—Performance Incentive Awards to Regional Workforce Boards achieving 90% of all Common Measure Local Targets Schedule: October/November—Performance Data for Program Year Verification Completed and Distributed to Regions for Appeal Process December 1-31—Regional Review/Appeal Process (Minimum of 30 Days) January—Performance Incentive Awards Distributed March-April—USDOL Annual Negotiation and Approval of Common Measures Goals for

upcoming year May—Annual Performance Incentive Budget Review/Approval by Board of Directors for

Program Year ending June 30th

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2013-2014 EVALUATION CRITERIA

EMPLOYER PENETRATION

Goal: To double regional employer penetration by increasing business outreach to ensure

Florida is positioned to meet demand-driven needs.

Objective: To recognize and provide performance incentive funding to regions improving their

employer penetration by increasing the net new number of businesses served.

Criteria: The following levels of service have been established to evaluate regional

performance:

Level 1 (Highest Service Level): Includes services such as pre-screening; job orders;

veteran services; customized training; job referrals/placements, job fairs; on-site

workshops for recruitment/retention.

Level 2 (Mid-Level Services): Includes services such as referrals of qualified

applicants; work readiness certifications; employer notifications of potential applicants.

Level 3 (Lowest Level of Service): Includes services such as employer contacts;

promotional calls; providing information packages; business incentive information.

Methodology: Utilizing EFM data, increased employer penetration will be grouped in the

following two performance gateways.

Gateway 1—Individual regional workforce boards will be recognized upon doubling

the number of net new businesses served with Levels 1, 2 and 3 services.

Gateway 2—Individual regional workforce boards will be awarded Performance

Incentive funding upon meeting the requirements of Gateway 1 and doubling the number

of employers receiving Level 1 services.

Schedule:

May 22, 2013 – The Workforce Florida Board of Directors approved $2.5 million for

performance incentive funding. $2 million has been allocated to implement the employer

penetration performance incentive.

2013-2014 – Reported EFM data will be analyzed on a quarterly basis to determine total number

of net new businesses served and levels of services for 2013-2014 performance incentive

allocations.

Service Code Service Description Contact Level

E02 Provided Job Fair Services 1

E04 Provided Mass Recruitment Services 1

E05 Provided Detailed Labor Market Study 1

E06 Provided Candidate Pre-Screening 1

E08 Reviewed resumes and referred eligible individuals 1

E10 Veteran Services 1

E12 On-Site Workshop - Recruitment 1

E13 On-Site Workshop - Retention 1

E25 Customized Training 1

E29 Employer Workshop 1

E30 Entered into Recruiting Agreement 1

E31 Incumbent Worker Training 1

E32 Job Benefit Analysis 1

E33 Job Development 1

E34 Job Order 1

E35 Job Referrals and Placement 1

E38 On the Job Training 1

E41 Public Sector - Temporary Jobs 1

E42 Rapid Response/Dislocated Workers Assistance 1

E43 Short-Time Compensation 1

E44 Provided Human Resource Services 1

E45 Temporary Employment Service Center 1

E49 Organizational Visit VET/MSFW 1

E50 Employer Outreach Visit VET/MSFW 1

E01 On-Site Visit 2

E03 Provided Job Order Follow-up 2

E09 Delivered Applications/Resumes 2

E17 Agricultural Housing Inspection 2

E22 Provided Other Training Service Not Otherwise Classified 2

E23 Applicant Background Check 2

E26 Drug Screening 2

E28 Employer Relations Committee 2

E36 Medical Exam/Physical 2

E37 NEG Employer Application Assistance 2

E39 Provision of Meeting Facility 2

E46 Trade Act Petition Assistance 2

E47 WARN Notice Assistance 2

E48 Processed I9's 2

E51 Provided Work Readiness Certification 2

E90 Referred Qualified Applicants 2

E92 Notification to employer of potential applicant 2

E07 Promotional Call 3

E11 Information package Provided 3

E14 Provided MSFW Information 3

E15 Provided Federal Bonding Information 3

E16 Provided Alien Labor Certification Information 3

E18 Provided Workforce Development Training Information 3

E19 Provided Tax Credit/WOTC Information 3

E20 Provided EEO/Affirmative Action Information 3

E21 Provided information not Otherwise Classified 3

E24 Business Incentive Information 3

E27 Employer Contact 3

E40 Provision of Special Tax Credit Information 3

PROPOSED CONTACT LEVELS OF SERVICES PROVIDED BY REGIONAL WORKFORCE BOARDS

Explanation of Contact Levels: Each Level of Contact grouping is based upon the highest service level that was received by an employer during the reporting period.

Each grouping may be inclusive of lower levels of services.

Level 1 Contact : The employer received at least one Level 1 service during the reporting period. Within this grouping, employers may have also received Level 2 and

Level 3 services.

Level 2 Contact: The employer received at least one Level 2 service during the reporting period. Within this grouping, employers may have also received Level 3

services.

Level 3 Contact: The employer received at least one Level 3 service during the reporting period. Within this grouping, employers have not received any other level of

service.

LEVEL 1

Level 2

Level 3


2013-2014 EVALUATION CRITERIA CAREERSOURCE FLORIDA

UNIFIED BRAND IMPLEMENTATION

Goal: To implement the Workforce Florida Board-approved, new unified statewide brand for Florida’s Workforce System — CareerSource Florida — a major statewide priority. Objective: Ensure essential tasks are completed and critical outcomes are achieved by Florida’s Regional Workforce Boards to align the boards and the One-Stop Career Centers they direct with the CareerSource Florida brand to prepare for a statewide public launch of the new, universal brand for the Florida Workforce System. Criteria: The following criteria are established to evaluate whether essential brand transition actions have been taken and critical implementation outcomes achieved to position the Florida Workforce System for a statewide, public launch of the CareerSource Florida unified brand. Achievement of all criteria will result in Regional Workforce Board eligibility for a share of the incentive funding for CareerSource Florida Unified Brand Implementation.

1. Workforce Florida-Approved Regional Signature: Each Regional Workforce Board must designate a regional signature or brand name aligned with the CareerSource Florida master brand. The regional signature should include “CareerSource” followed by a geographic locater or regional identifier. The regional signature, which will be used locally to brand the board and its One-Stop Career Centers, must be approved by Workforce Florida to ensure appropriate statewide alignment and brand consistency.

2. Designation of a Regional Brand Champion: Brand Champions will serve as the subject matter experts for implementation of the CareerSource Florida brand. Workforce Florida has requested that each Regional Workforce Board designate a Brand Champion from among its staff leadership to serve as the designated primary leader for ensuring the unified brand is effectively executed locally and as Workforce Florida’s key point of contact for brand implementation issues. Brand Champions will receive intensive brand enculturation training and tools to support their critical role.

3. Development of a Local Brand Implementation Plan for the Regional Workforce Board and its One-Stop Career Centers: Consistent with statewide planning efforts, it is important that each Regional Workforce Board develop a Local Brand Implementation Plan including a project schedule for accomplishing critical transition tasks prior to the public launch of the CareerSource Florida brand.

4. Filing of Articles of Amendment to the Articles of Incorporation or a Fictitious Business Registration for New, Regional Brand Signature with the Florida Department of State: In order to be prepared to publicly proceed with use of its regional brand signature, each Regional Workforce Board will need to determine whether it will change its business name

or register its unique CareerSource Florida regional signature as a fictitious name with the Florida Department of State. Once determined, each board must complete the necessary filings to legally and formally proceed with use of its unique, but aligned CareerSource Florida-branded name.

5. Development of Locally Customized Outreach Materials and a Brand-Integrated Website: In order to be prepared to educate local customers and stakeholders about the new brand names (local and state) and the services and resources available through the Florida Workforce System as well as to help build and sustain the CareerSource Florida brand, Regional Workforce Boards will need to develop branded outreach materials and integrate the new brand into their digital outreach tools including a rebranded local website to support clarity and consistency of the unified statewide brand.

6. Delivery of Regional Workforce Board Internal Branding Orientation using the CareerSource Florida Enculturation Program: It is vital that workforce system professionals and leaders (both staff and board, from the front lines to the executive offices) understand the CareerSource Florida brand strategy, receive an introduction to the precepts within the unified brand charter and learn about their critical role in delivering the brand’s promise to employers, job seekers and workers, among other stakeholders. The use of clear and cohesive enculturation tools developed collaboratively to support internal branding orientation at every level of the Florida Workforce System is pivotal to an effective external launch of the CareerSource Florida brand and brand sustainability. Boards will demonstrate their brand launch readiness by ensuring all staff have participated in brand orientation. This orientation may be individually self-guided or delivered via locally designed facilitated sessions using the CareerSource Florida Enculturation Program, which will include a toolkit of online and printable resources, to ensure key workforce system stakeholders are prepared to “live” the brand and sustain a culture of excellence that contributes to and protects the brand’s value.

Methodology:

Gateway 1 — Achievement of Criteria 1, 2 and 3, which focus on important and necessary actions that must be addressed to begin statewide implementation and alignment of the CareerSource Florida unified brand to ensure system-wide clarity and consistency. Achievement of Criteria 1, 2 and 3 will result in recognition of Regional Workforce Boards by Workforce Florida. The required verification documentation indicating that Criteria 1, 2 and 3 have been met will be outlined in the CareerSource Florida Brand Implementation Guidance developed and distributed by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity at the direction of Workforce Florida. Gateway 2 — Achievement of Criteria 4, 5 and 6, which focus on vital outcomes that substantially advance implementation efforts and strongly position the workforce system for the public launch of the CareerSource Florida unified brand. Achievement of Criteria

4, 5 and 6 will result in Regional Workforce Board eligibility to share in the distribution of incentive funding for CareerSource Florida Brand Implementation. The required verification documentation indicating that Criteria 4, 5 and 6 have been met will be outlined in the CareerSource Florida Brand Implementation Guidance developed and distributed by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity at the direction of Workforce Florida.

Schedule: May 22, 2013 — The Workforce Florida Board of Directors approved $1 million for incentive funding for CareerSource Florida Unified Brand Implementation. Consistent with the regional distribution of other state funding to support statewide implementation of the new brand, Regional Workforce Boards will be eligible for a proportionate share of the incentive funding based on workforce region size (small, mid-size and large). At the discretion of qualifying Regional Workforce Boards, this funding may be used to address local costs associated with brand transition and local outreach and public education or directed to other fiscal needs as appropriate for state performance incentives awards. December 31, 2013 — By no later than December 31, 2013, Regional Workforce Boards should submit required verification documentation that Criteria 1, 2 and 3 have been achieved. Early 2014 — The deadline by which Criteria 4, 5 and 6 must be achieved to be eligible for incentive funding will be outlined in the CareerSource Florida Brand Implementation Guidance developed and distributed by the Florida Department of Economic Opportunity at the direction of Workforce Florida. Boards eligible for CareerSource Florida Unified Brand Implementation incentive funding may receive these funds upon state verification that all six criteria have been met.

2013: Quarter Two

April-June 2013

Florida Chamber Foundation-Florida Workforce Scorecard Initiative

Prepared by the Florida Chamber Foundation

in partnership with Workforce Florida, Inc.

Florida Chamber Foundation-Florida Workforce Scorecard Initiative Quarterly Report

April – June 2013

Page 1

Table of Contents

I. National Economic Overview 2

II. Florida Economic Overview 3

III. Trends in 2013:Q1 and Implications for Florida’s Workforce 4

Talent Supply & Education 4

Innovation & Economic Development 5

Business Climate & Competitiveness 7

IV. Overview of Economic and Workforce Indicators 8

Non-Farm Employment 10

Unemployment 11

Real GDP Growth 12

Housing Market 13

Florida Chamber of Commerce Small Business Survey 14

V. Regional Labor Market Analysis 17

Supply-Demand Analysis 17

Demand Characteristics 19


April – June 2013

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Section I. National Economic Overview The U.S. economy has displayed true grit in the aftermath of the Great Recession. Driven by rising home prices, strengthening household balance sheets have provided a much-needed boost in consumer confidence, which in turn has driven a burst of consumer spending throughout the first quarter and well into the second. In spite of the payroll tax hike (that shaved 4% from disposable income growth), consumer spending surged by 3.4% annualized in the first quarter of 2013. The 12% year-over-year April boost in home prices has generated a 9.6% boost in household net worth in the first quarter relative to the same period last year. In fact, household net worth is now 3.4% higher than it was at the pre-recession peak. The resilience of consumer spending is an important element in the post-recession environment, since it in large part helped to mitigate the effects of both higher taxes and reduced government spending. Had government spending not contracted so sharply over the last two quarters, GDP growth would have grown almost 1.2% higher than it did. The tension between rising consumer spending and fiscal drag result in a moderated outlook for GDP growth of 1.9% for 2013. Challenges facing the U.S. economy that could moderate the effects of rising household wealth and consumer confidence are both fiscal and monetary. Beginning this quarter, nearly 680,000 civilian employees working for the Department of Defense began furloughs, along with hundreds of thousands from other agencies. The statutory debt-ceiling will become an issue in October/November, and Congress has still failed to pass a 2014 budget. On the monetary side, the Federal Reserve will be more likely to end its asset-purchases as the employment situation improves. If inflation threatens to creep closer to the Fed’s 2% target, it will be more likely to end its bond-buying in early 2014. As always, financial markets will follow the Fed’s actions closely, so indeed there are potential “land mines” ahead for asset prices if any tightening is perceived. As weakness persists in the European, South American, and developing Asian economies, a substantial uptick in U.S. export growth is unlikely. Add to this a strengthening dollar (over 2% appreciation since January), there is little reason to believe that this sector will be a source of meaningful growth in 2013. However, in spite of the challenges ahead, the U.S. is still expected to out-perform its G7 peers (U.K., France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan) for 2013.

Global growth should accelerate in 2014

Rising prices and falling unemployment could trigger

tightening by the Fed.

High unemployment in the Euro-zone could hamper demand

for U.S. exports.


April – June 2013

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Section II. Florida Economic Overview The momentum that began in the first quarter for Florida’s recovery continued apace into the second quarter of 2013, in fact outpacing the national recovery. The main drivers of success for Florida have been the recovery of the housing market and continued population growth. As residential construction picks up, a broader base is created for economic growth across many other sectors, including tourism and consumer spending. State revenue benefits from this cross-sector boost in spending; receipts are up 6.2% in May over last year. And the national recovery has spilled over into the state. As the net worth of the general population improves, Florida enjoys added visitors and the additional spending associated with tourism. Since the recession ended, Florida visitation is up by 4.7%, accounting for 23% of jobs added in April, as indicated by VisitFlorida. Tourism-related employment has grown for 37 straight months through April 2013.

Population growth has been strengthening, with Florida expected to reach 20 million by 2015/2016, providing the engine for future economic growth and employment. Florida’s annual population growth rate should average 1.4% between 2015-2020, which is higher than the projected U.S. average rate of 0.7% as indicated by the Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Data Research (EDR). This is a positive indicator for continued growth in the housing sector, which already outpaces that of the nation.

Building permits are up 51% for the first four months of 2013, nearly double the national rate, and this can be explained in part by weak construction activity over the past five years. Overall the housing market is improving, both in sales price and volume. By April 2013, the market was nearly 87% of its 2005 peak. Nevertheless, Florida still has the nation’s highest foreclosure rate with 3.1% of all housing units receiving at least one filing (EDR). However, a survey of senior loan officers reveals that, in general, credit conditions have “eased slightly” (EDR).

Sectors that have shown the highest response to this momentum are Leisure and Hospitality, with a 3.2% growth in employment between May, 2012-2013; Construction, up 2.8%, and Trade, Transportation & Utilities, up 2.2%, from data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Overall Florida created nearly 123,000 jobs in May, ranking third in the nation. And, among the 10 largest states, Florida’s 7.1% unemployment rate was the third lowest in the nation.

These trends, as well as the May surge in consumer sentiment to its highest level in six years (as reported by the UF Bureau of Economic and Business Research), are positive indications that Florida might be on a trajectory for 2.5% GSP growth in 2013 (TD Economics), and 3.4% growth in 2014.


April – June 2013

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Section III. Trends in 2013:Q2 and Implications for Florida’s Workforce

Talent Supply & Education and Workforce Florida’s Strategic Projects

The supply of talent in Florida has been recognized by many partners across the public and private sectors as critical to producing an innovation economy that will power the jobs of tomorrow. In order to provide an appropriately skilled labor force for both today’s businesses as well as emerging industries, efforts of Workforce Florida have focused on strategic projects surrounding a Talent Supply Chain for High Performance in the Strategic Plan as well as STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering and Math) Leadership for Florida. An assessment of trend analysis and reports released through June 2013 indicates the following:

In 2010, Florida received a $700 million grant from the 2009 competitive federal stimulus package titled “Race to the Top,” in which states were asked to submit ideas for improving public education. The theory behind Florida’s proposal is that student educational outcomes will be enhanced by improving the effectiveness of teachers and leaders in the educational system. The components of Florida’s strategy cover the following areas: (1) Capacity in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) education; (2) Standards and Assessments; (3) Data Systems to Support Instruction; (4) Great Teachers and Leaders, and; (5) Turning Around Lowest-Achieving Schools.

According to the progress report released in June 2013, results include the following : (1) an increase of 33% since 2009 in STEM accelerated course enrollment; (2) trained more than 7,500 educators in Common Core State Standards, and developed Professional Development toolkits for teachers in Reading Foundational Skills and Mathematics Formative Assessments; (3) provided grants to 50 districts for acquisition of Local Instructional Improvement Systems; (4) implemented both a revised teacher evaluation system and principal evaluation system; and (5) recruited and trained 300 Teach for America Corp members and “turnaround principals” for placement in lowest-achieving schools.

The June report reveals progress in the areas of Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS) and Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS). PIRLS scores for fourth-graders indicate that Florida’s fourth-graders ranked second internationally among 53 other international school systems. Florida’s fourth-graders ranked ninth out of 57 other international systems in TIMSS performance, and eighth-graders’ performance ranked 16th out of 56 other educational systems. In science, fourth-graders ranked seventh, and eighth-graders ranked 17th out of the 56 other systems.

As suggested in the previous quarterly report, an opportunity still exists to narrow the gap between Florida’s fourth-graders and its eighth-graders. A July 5, 2013 Bureau of Labor Statistics news release indicates that the unemployment rate for high school graduates with no college was 7.6% in June, compared to 3.9% for persons with a Bachelor’s degree and higher. Higher rates of unemployment affect all Floridians, even those who remain employed. This result suggests the need to accelerate efforts toward preparing middle school-age students for high school and eventually higher and continuing education. A recent study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that a 1% increase in the proportion of the population with a college degree translates into a 2.3% increase in economic growth.


April – June 2013

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Innovation & Economic Development and Workforce Florida’s Strategic Projects

The technological change and increased efficiencies brought about by innovative methods will continue to shape and drive Florida’s economy. Workforce Florida has recognized the importance of meeting the changing workforce demands of an economy which is influenced by innovation through a strategic project that aims to provide real-time information on the Workforce Supply and Demand Analysis in Florida. As new companies form and existing businesses expand they will look to hire workers with the necessary skills to meet their business demand. An assessment of trend analysis through June 2013 indicates the following:

International trade is a significant component of Florida’s Gross State Product (GSP); approximately 18% according to Enterprise Florida’s March 2013 report. In its totality, international trade is a combination of exports, imports, and foreign direct investment, all of which provide direct and indirect economic benefits to the state’s economy. Enterprise Florida estimates that Florida’s international trade sector supports over 1 million jobs in the state, either directly through production of exported goods, or indirectly through the seaports, airports, management and logistics associated with both exports and imports.

Florida’s YTD export value total was 4.9% lower in May 2013 compared to the same time last year. However, total exports for May, 2013 were 1.8% higher than for January. While this is a modest gain, it represents an encouraging reversal of the first-quarter slump. Florida’s import growth YTD is 6.2% higher than the same time last year. Total imports for May 2013 were 1.7% higher than for January, which is slightly slower growth than that in the export sector.

For perspective, 2012 was a record year for Florida exports; a total of $66.4 billion (an increase of 2.3% over 2011). However, export values are expressed in current dollars and the price level between 2011 and 2012 rose 2.2%. This partially offsets the 2.3% nominal gain reported in the report. Still, even a modest growth for the year is encouraging in view of weak overall global economic performance and a strengthening dollar, both of which can suppress export activity.

While the Florida export sector’s performance YTD could not be termed “robust,” the sector possesses important attributes to position it for accelerated growth as the global economy improves. For example:

Florida exporters account for 20% of all U.S. exporters.

The average wage premium in the international trade sector is approximately 30% of average state wages.

High-tech products comprise about 25% of Florida-origin exports, which is where the highest wage premiums are observed.

Florida has the highest level of exports as a share of manufacturers’ shipments in the U.S.

Export-intensive industries tend to employ more highly educated workers.

SMEs (small to medium-sized companies) comprise 96% of Florida’s exporting companies.


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Tourism has been a key driver of Florida’s strong first quarter and YTD performance. By May 2013 employment was up 3.2% in the sector since the same time last year. By March of this year, travel spending was up 7.3% from the same time last year and is up 5.9% YTD compared to 2012. A contributing factor in the sector’s performance is the fact that Canadians comprise the largest segment of international visitors to the state, approximately 3.6 million in 2012. In addition Canada is experiencing relatively low unemployment, with robust economic growth expected for next year.

Nearly 1.5 million Floridians are employed either directly or indirectly in this sector, which comprises 16% of Florida’s labor force. Unfortunately, employees in this sector are among lowest wage-earners in the state. Workers in accommodation and food services earn on average only $9.43 per hour, while those in arts, entertainment and recreation may earn up to $18.23 which is still lower than the average wage of $25.00 for all Florida occupations.

An objective within this category of the Six Pillars is to raise Florida’s research and development capabilities and standing. This initiative covers many areas, including Life Sciences, Cleantech, Infotech, Aviation and Aerospace, Logistics and Distribution, and Manufacturing. According to a recent report by Enterprise Florida, both funding to Florida from the National Institutes of Health and expenditures of its academic institutions on R&D to support these industries exceeds the national average. A very brief profile of Florida’s “Innovation Assets” includes:

Florida is home to 20,700 science and engineering PhDs (2003)

Total R&D funding in 2003 was over $5 billion.

Over 2,200 patents originated from Florida’s R&D in 2005.

Florida was home to over 20,000 high-tech companies in 2004

Science and engineering and technical employment in 2005 was 304,060.

Florida produced 1,410 doctorates in Science and Engineering in 2010, a rank of 7th in the nation, and an increase of 42% since 2004. Florida’s expenditures on academic R&D is ranked 11th in the nation in all of the sciences.

According to the Department of Education, jobs in the R&D sector are expected to grow an average annual rate between 2012 and 2020 as follows:

All occupations, state average – 1.55%

Computer-related occupations – 1.80%

Mathematical science occupations – 3.77%

Biomedical engineers – 5.93%

Life science occupations – 2.40%

Biochemists and biophysicists – 4.50%

Physical scientists – 1.24%

Aerospace engineers – 0.24%


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Business Climate & Competitiveness and Workforce Florida’s Strategic Projects

Communication and sharing of knowledge between Florida’s industries and workforce development partners is critical to ensure a business climate that is competitive regionally, nationally and internationally. To help meet the informational need, this initiative serves to provide detailed analysis to support Workforce Florida’s strategic project producing The Best Informed Target Industry Cluster-specific Task Forces.

An assessment of trend analysis and reports released through June, 2013 indicates:

Of the four most populous states in the U.S., Florida has been ranked highest by the Tax Foundation in terms of the favorability of its business climate to business growth (“2013 State Business Tax Climate Index”, or “Index”). And, it was ranked 5th in the entire nation. Among many factors that must be in place to attract new businesses (new infrastructure, transportation, access to health care) the tax structure is but one component. However, unlike the other components, tax code changes can be legislated and implemented relatively quickly, and thus produce results quickly.

The state rankings are based on many subsets of the following general tax-issue categories: Corporate tax base, Tax credits, Individual income taxes, Credit for taxes paid, Inflation indexing of taxes, Sales taxes, Excise taxes, Property taxes, and Unemployment insurance taxes. While the full details of the Index are beyond the scope of this report, it is highly informative to note Florida’s ranking in terms of evaluation of current and proposed policies. Since the Index is an important resource for businesses that are considering new or re-location, maintaining this ranking suggests direction for future policy discussion.

In view of the impact of the Great Recession on Florida’s economy, it would be useful to understand how Florida’s businesses are likely to respond to increases in unemployment. According to a study published in June of this year by the National Bureau of Economic Research, firms’ response to business cycles depends both upon their size and their age, whereas the prevailing assumption has been that small firms in general are most vulnerable. A contributing factor is that small, young firms are often financed with home equity and personal financial capital, whereas the older, more established small firms have developed financing channels that leave them less vulnerable to declines in home prices.

Of note is that in the U.S. overall, about 35% of firms are young/small, and about 50% are old/small, with the rest being large/mature. So even though most firms are small, large/mature firms account for more employment. During the period 2006-2009, both young and old small firms accounted for a disproportionate share of the decline in employment.

Another valuable conclusion from this research is that location matters; in states such as Florida, where housing prices declined the most, the drop in net employment growth for young/small businesses was the most severe.

As Florida attempts to attract new business to the state, it is important to bear in mind that these companies will be particularly vulnerable to housing price shocks due to the nature of their financial structure.


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Section IV. Overview of Economic and Workforce Indicators

Economic Indicators 2013: Q1

Current

Quarter Year Ago Over the Year

Quarter

Ago Over the Quarter 2013 Q1

2013 Q1 2012 Q1 Level Percent 2012 Q4 Level Percent US Value

Per Capita Personal Income $40,831 $40,300 $531 1.32 $41,860 - $1,029 -2.46% $43,338

Real US GDP (in billions) $13,725.7 $13,506.4 $219.3 1.62% $13,665.4 $60.3 0.44% $13,725.7

Housing Sales 114,583 107,255 7,328 6.83% 115,359 -776 -0.67% 791,347

Non-Agricultural Employment 7,481,067 7,352,500 128,567 1.75% 7,444,400 36,667 0.49% 135,108,000

Unemployment Rate 7.5% 8.9% -1.4% - 7.9 -0.4 - 7.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Zillow Real Estate Network

Footnote: Per Capita Personal Income = Total Personal Income/Annual Population.


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Florida’s Workforce Indicators 2013: Q2

Current

Quarter

Year Ago

Over the Year

Change

Quarter

Ago

Over-the-Quarter

Change

2013 Q2 2012 Q2 Level Percent 2013 Q1 Level Percent

Average Number of Reemployment Assistance Claimants per

Month 268,545 347,677 -79,132 -22.76 284,057 -15,512 -5.46%

Number of Reemployment Assistance Claimants placed into jobs 33,042 19,704 13,338 67.69 30,454 2,588 8.50%

Average Number of Job Openings Available per Month 308,625 330,034 -21,409 -6.49 290,066 18,559 6.40%

Number of Individuals Placed in Jobs 116,999 85,177 31,822 37.36 108,613 8,386 7.72%

Average Percentage of Job Openings Filled per Month 12.63% 8.66% 3.97 - 12.52% 0.11% -

Average Percentage of Reemployment Assistance Claimants

Placed into Jobs per Month 4.10% 1.89% 2.21 - 3.57% 0.53% -

Source: Florida Department of Economic Opportunity, Monthly Placement Reports Footnote: Quarterly statistics are calculated as the monthly average of the quarter.


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Reemployment claimants continued to decline in the second quarter of 2013 when compared to the first quarter, 2013, and the fourth quarter of 2012. This is consistent with the decrease in unemployment and the increase in non-agricultural employment in both Florida and the nation. While jobs available increased between quarters, the number of jobs available when compared to the second quarter of 2012 decreased by nearly 6.5%. This can be partially explained by the substantial improvement in employment experienced through the duration of 2012 and into early 2013, as well as the impact of higher payroll taxes and fiscal uncertainty. These negative economic factors could have contributed to a slowdown in the job placement rate as businesses may have been hesitant to employ.

Florida Non-Agricultural Employment:

As illustrated in the chart below, Florida’s non-agricultural employment rose to 7,511,200 in May 2013 (an increase of 122,500 or 1.7 percent) since the same time last year. Year-to-date, Florida is up 59,100, adding an average of 15,400 per month for the first quarter, with a major boost in April of 19,000 new jobs, a one-quarter percent gain for that one month. However, job growth slowed in May, showing a small net loss of 6,200. More indicative of the economy’s direction is the increase since last year and the fact that although job growth is modest, it is overall positive. And, as unemployment levels fall as they have in Florida to below the national rate, job growth will typically tend to slow somewhat.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7,250

7,300

7,350

7,400

7,450

7,500

7,550

Florida Non-Farm Employment (in thousands)


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With Florida’s economic expansion expected to accelerate in 2013, non-agricultural employment should continue to rise. Non-agricultural employment is an important indicator of economic health for the state as the chart below provides more information about economic activity when compared to the unemployment rate (which is subject to sudden changes in the labor force participation rate). In general, faster job creation indicates that more goods and services are being produced by Florida’s firms, while slow growth or job losses indicate that an economic contraction may be occurring.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rate:

Florida’s seasonally adjusted unemployment rate decreased from 7.7% in February of last quarter, to 7.1% for May in the second quarter of 2013. Florida has improved its unemployment rate dramatically since May of last year, when the rate was 8.8%. While the unemployment rate may continue to fall as the economy expands, the decrease may slow as the rate drops further.

Fortunately, the decrease in the unemployment rate is partially a result of job creation and not merely a result of discouraged workers leaving the labor force. While the labor market is recovering, Florida’s jobs market will likely need a few additional years to regain pre-recession employment levels. The unemployment rate will be important to monitor for Florida’s economic progress, but we must consider the individual employment components of the unemployment rate. In certain circumstances, the unemployment rate may decrease if unemployed workers drop out of the labor force even if no new jobs are created by Florida businesses.


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Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

Real GDP:

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of the total value of economic output of the national economy adjusted for inflation over time. In contrast with the standard measurement of GDP, real GDP is a preferable measure because it accurately reflects economic conditions and output. Q1:2013 was $13,725.7 (in billions), compared to $13,665.4 in Q4:2012 and $13,506.4 in Q1:2012. Real GDP has increased 1.6 percent and 0.4 percent over-the-year and over-the-quarter, respectively. The first quarter’s performance was substantially more impressive than the last quarter of 2012 when the quarterly growth from the prior quarter was only 0.1 percent. The positive news in housing prices, consumer spending, and improvements in household balance sheets all played a role.

As mentioned in the last report, U.S. real GDP growth was expected to remain near 2.0% for 2013 (partially a result of sequestration), and should accelerate to 2.4% in 2014, based on projections from Wells Fargo Securities. However, the ongoing tension between fiscal policy and economic resiliency requires moderation of that forecast. Accordingly, the outlook for 2013 has been changed to real GDP growth closer to 1.9%.

Workforce professionals will want to track U.S. real GDP growth rates as they tend to be highly correlated with Florida’s labor market performance, although there is an approximate one-year lag.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GDP

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Output_(economics)


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Source: Florida Legislature Office of Economic and Demographic Research

Florida’s Housing Market:

The housing recovery in Florida continues to show signs of improvement, in both sales prices and volumes. Florida’s building permits are up 51% through April, far outpacing the overall U.S performance. New building permits are a key leading indicator for future state economic performance as it provides information about the level of construction activity we can expect in the months ahead. Home prices have generally increased – according to Florida Realtors the median home price for May 2013 was $171,000 – a 16% increase from May 2012, which should provide consumers with a wealth effect to spending on goods and services. Improvement in the housing market is a key driver of direct and indirect job creation, as housing has a large multiplier effect on other industries.

Improvements in the housing market create a momentum that first affects household balance sheets by increasing the value of most households’ largest asset. This deleveraging effect lowers the risk that homeowners will not qualify for refinancing, if it is needed, and also contributes to their ability to borrow for other purchases.


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Florida Chamber of Commerce Small Business Survey – April – June 2013

Survey Results

Top five important issues facing Florida small businesses today:

1. Access to Capital – 25% 2. Economic Uncertainty – 22% 3. Other – 17% 4. Growth Management Process – 10% 5. Government Regulations – 9%

The top two issues of concern to Florida small businesses in the second quarter results were “access to capital” and “economic uncertainty.” This reflects a growing trend from previous quarters, and can be attributed to the fact that as businesses see recovery coming and seek to expand, they are increasingly likely to seek out capital in a continued tight financial market. Banks and other lenders have not eased up on lending, continuing the perception of a credit crunch in the business capital markets.

4%

24%

50%

3%

4%

19%

Employment Plans During the Next Six Months

Hire many new employees

Hire few new employees

Maintain current workforce

Lay off few employees

Lay off many employees

Not sure


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Asking Florida businesses about their employment plans can help gauge the strength of hiring in the months ahead. The first quarter survey indicated that most Florida’s small businesses expect to maintain the current workforce level at their firms.

Layoffs – 4% plan to lay off employees, down from 7% the first quarter.

Hire Many New Employees – 4% of firms plan to hire many new employees over the next six months, unchanged from the first quarter.

Hire Few New Employees—24% of firms plan to hire few new employees over the next six months, down from 28% in the fourth quarter.

Consistent with our “top five important issues” results, small businesses claim that economic uncertainty is a significant obstacle to hiring new employees. 24% of small businesses surveyed cited economic uncertainty as the largest obstacle to hiring; 32% said the largest obstacle was lack of sales; and 7% referenced the requirements of the federal health care bill. This indicates that among the surveyed firms, economic uncertainty remains a large issue for Florida’s employers. Yet, the outlook for Florida’s economy appears to be more optimistic when compared to 2013. We should expect survey results to improve in the months ahead.

24%

32% 5%

7%

3%

27%

2%

What obstacles are preventing you from hiring new employees?

Economic uncertainty

Lack of sales

Too much regulation

Requirements of federal health care bill

Uncertainty about what state government will do next

Not applicable

Other


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Sales activity can be used to help assess overall production in the economy, but it is also a useful leading indicator for future employment. As firms see sales activity increase from higher consumer demand, they will be pressed to increase the number of hours their existing employees work in a given week. Once firms are more certain that strong sales are the new normal, they will often require additional employees to handle increased production and/or sales for end users. The majority of our small business respondents stated that their companies’ sales were either unchanged or higher in the second quarter when compared to the same period in quarter one. Unfortunately, 24% of firms reported having lower sales. However, it is a positive sign economically that more surveyed firms are observing higher sales than lower sales in the second quarter of 2013.

30%

24%

44%

2%

Higher Lower No Change No Answer

Company Sales over the Last Six Months Compared to Period Last Year


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Section V. Regional Labor Market Analysis Understanding Florida’s labor market is necessary for identifying opportunities and challenges for economic development and workforce operations. In 2012, non-agricultural employment increased by 135,400, helping close the employment gap created during the Great Recession. However, the state’s labor market remains tight, with more unemployed individuals than job openings or Help Wanted Online Ads (HWOLs). Our analysis attempts to determine the supply and demand characteristics of the state’s labor market while identifying the regional differences in labor market tightness.

The ratio of Help Wanted Online Ads and unemployed individuals by region allows us to determine supply and demand characteristics at the state and regional level. While this study is limited to help wanted online ads, the proliferation of help wanted online ads is expected to increase; therefore better serving as a proxy for labor demand. The measurement of the Labor Market Ratio is the number of unemployed individuals per job. A decrease in the number of unemployed individuals or an increase in the number of online ads would lower this ratio, therefore suggesting more employment opportunities.

RWB Unemployed Help Wanted Labor Market Unemployment Average Quarterly

Individuals Ads Ratio Rate (May 2013) Wage (Q4 2012)

1 13,885 5,241 2.65 6.70% 9,955

2 6,297 4,569 1.38 7.90% 9,772

3 3,033 649 4.67 6.10% 8,046

4 6,326 3,195 1.98 7.70% 9,273

5 10,982 5,967 1.84 7.10% 10,272

6 3,386 600 5.64 7.40% 8,204

7 3,240 750 4.32 7.80% 8,409

8 48,887 24,695 1.98 7.30% 11,646

9 7,840 5,081 1.54 6.30% 10,812

10 16,338 5,160 3.17 6.70% 8,905

11 21,156 6,529 3.24 6.40% 9,084

12 78,238 36,340 2.15 8.50% 10,660

13 20,053 6,251 3.21 6.60% 11,373

14 30,402 12,168 2.50 4.60% 11,719

15 42,372 26,262 1.61 6.60% 12,392

16 20,389 3,837 5.31 5.30% 8,774

17 21,025 5,961 3.53 8.50% 9,631

18 20,657 11,155 1.85 5.70% 10,221

19 4,820 1,046 4.61 6.80% 7,860

20 23,170 5,517 4.20 6.60% 9,805

21 44,612 17,979 2.48 6.90% 13,052

22 59,202 22,137 2.67 7.00% 11,964

23 114,504 35,041 3.27 6.10% 12,599

24 36,803 14,217 2.59 6.50% 10,194

State 657,617 260,347 2.53% 7.10% 10,193


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According to this analysis, there were 2.5 individuals per online ad in the month of June at the state level; equating to approximately 25 unemployed individuals per 10 online ads. Region 2 (Okaloosa and Walton counties) had the lowest level of labor market tightness, with a labor market ratio of 1.38. Region 6 (Hamilton, Jefferson, Lafayette, Madison, Suwannee and Taylor Counties) had the highest level of labor market tightness, with a labor market ratio of 5.6. Despite having the lowest number of unemployed individuals, region 6 had the lowest number of online ads reported in the month of February, contributing to a significantly higher value. Region 23 (Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties) had the highest number of unemployed individuals in the month of June, but not the highest number of online ads reported; that was seen in Region 12 (Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Sumter).

Regions 14, 16, and 18 had the lowest unemployment rates amongst all regions in the month of June, with all three regions experiencing unemployment rates under 6 percent. Regions 17, 12 and 2 had the highest unemployment rates amongst all regions, with both regions 17 and 12 at 8.5 percent. This disparity in unemployment does suggest that while Florida’s labor market has been improving since the depths of the Great Recession, certain regions are lagging behind. In addition, this measure does not include those who are marginally employed or those who have been discouraged from the workforce due to the lack of employment opportunities. Considering region 17’s high labor market tightness relative to the state, it is possible that any improvements in its labor market may incite more individuals into the labor force, therefore prolonging its recovery.

Regions 21, 23 and 15 had the highest average quarterly wage with workers earning on average more than $12,000 throughout the second quarter of 2013. Regions 3, 9 and 19 had the lowest average quarterly wage, with workers earning on average, just over $8,000 second of 2013. Differences in wages between regions can be explained by several different factors; two such factors include the industrial organization of the region and the cost of living within the region. The industrial compositions between regions differ, therefore adjusting the demand for labor to individuals with specific skills, training and education levels. A rural county may have less demand for individuals with specialized engineering skills, therefore lowering the quarterly wage. However, this does not suggest that regions with lower quarterly wages are worse off. The costs of living between regions vary, adjusting for differences in labor demand. Therefore, it is important that workforce professionals focus on ensuring regional labor forces have the necessary training and skills to meet regional labor demand.


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Labor Demand:

In order to better align regional workforce to the needs of businesses, it is important to know what occupations are in high demand. Based on the Department of Economic Opportunity’s Help Wanted Online Ads summary, the following occupations were identified as being in high demand (3,500+ ads) at the end of June:

Registered Nurses

Retail Salespersons

First-line Supervisors of Retail Sales Workers

Customer Services Representatives

First-Line Supervisors of Food Preparation & Serving Workers

First-Line Supervisors of Office & Admin. Support Workers

Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers

Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing, Ex. Tech. & Scientific

Medical and Health Services Managers

Web Developers

Throughout the state, the top advertised occupation is that of the registered nurse, as was the case for the previous quarterly report. As a result of current labor market trends and projections of employment patterns for Florida’s economy, Workforce Florida Inc. can help alleviate the skills-mismatch by focusing on service sector training programs.

Demographic patterns over the next decade should increase demand for skills in health and social assistance services.


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This report was made possible through a partnership between

of 1

Performance Council August 28, 2013

Florida Workforce Integrated Performance Reporting System (FWIPRS)

The FWIPRS is an enterprise reporting system sanctioned by Workforce Florida Incorporated (WFI) and created by the Department of Economic Opportunity. This web-based system provides performance metrics at three different levels. They are:

Level 1 – Includes the WFI Board, stakeholders, and the general public.

Level 2 – Provides performance metrics that are germane to Regional Workforce Board Executive Directors, upper management and mid-level management.

Level 3 – Provides performance metrics and granular level data to the case managers.

This system features an integrated approach to performance reporting. While more common performance metrics will be included, this web-system measures cross-program performance metrics. It leverages the data resources of Wagner Peyser, Workforce Investment Act, Welfare Transition, Food Stamp Employment and Training, Reemployment Assistance services (Unemployment Compensation data), New Hire, and a few additional data resources to create cohesive, coherent, and useful performance metrics.

This past quarter (June-August), over a hundred Regional Workforce Board Directors, One-Stop staff and others participated in one of the two, 3-4 day intense training sessions on the FWIPRS system and related data systems/elements. Training sessions spanned the levels of depth from very high level strategic information (Level 1) to very in-depth day-to-day operational data (Level 3). In addition to FWIPRS, the training also covered the Monthly Management Report, Governor’s Daily Job Placement, Common Measures’ Report Regression Model, and other state and federal reports. Attendees got a better understanding of how the various data elements comprise the state’s performance management system and how imperative the collection of accurate and timely data has become. Sessions were held in Orlando and Tallahassee with other sessions to be scheduled in the coming months and will include opportunities for individuals at all levels (front-line workers to state board members) to participate.

Common Measures

Performance

2009-2010

Performance

2010-2011

Performance

2011-2012

Performance

2012 -2013

1st Quarter

Performance

2012 -2013

2nd Quarter

Performance

2012 -2013

3rd Quarter

Performance

2012 -2013

4th Quarter

State Goals

2012-2013

USDOL

Approved

Performance

Goals

2013-2014

Adults:

1 Entered Employment Rate 82.90% 79.90% 74.20% 73.30% 73.10% 77.70% 79.80% 82.00% 79.00%

2 Employment Retention Rate 90.70% 92.40% 91.80% 90.90% 91.20% 91.10% 91.00% 92.00% 91.50%

3 Average 6-Months Earnings $21,064.20 $22,671.20 $20,479.20 $20,088.30 $19,883.30 $19,727.00 $19,503.30 $22,755 $21,500

Dislocated Workers:

4 Entered Employment Rate 79.70% 84.50% 84.20% 84.30% 84.60% 86.10% 87.00% 93.00% 90.00%

5 Employment Retention Rate 87.40% 89.00% 90.00% 90.40% 90.90% 91.20% 90.90% 90.00% 90.00%

6 Average 6-Months Earnings $16,715.40 $17,292.50 $16,835.70 $16,552.80 $16,302.80 $16,109.30 $15,864.60 $18,706 $17,621

Youth Common Measures:

7

Placement in Employment or

Education 52.70% 49.30% 47.70% 52.90% 53.50% 56.70% 64.60% 53.00% 53.00%

8

Attainment of a Degree or

Certificate 58.90% 61.50% 69.80% 75.40% 74.50% 72.30% 68.60% 70.00% 70.50%

9 Literacy and Numeracy Gains 41.10% 37.70% 45.30% 48.50% 49.80% 50.20% 47.10% 51.00% 50.00%

Wagner-Peyser:

10 Entered Employment Rate 46.00% 50.00% 55.00% 57% 58% 58% Not Available 61.00% 61.00%

11 Employment Retention Rate 76.00% 79.00% 80.00% 81% 81% 81% Not Available 89.00% 85.00%12 Average 6-Months Earnings $12,275.00 $12,948.00 $12,874.00 $12,902 $12,996 $12,901 Not Available $14,283.00 $13,598

2012 - 2013 FLORIDA WORKFORCE COMMON MEASURES - STATEWIDE PERFORMANCE

July 1, 2012 - June 30, 2013 Outcomes

Not Met (less than 80% of negotiated)

Met (80-100% of negotiated)

Exceeded (greater than 100% of

negotiated)

Updated: 8/22/2013

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