Performance-Based Fire Safety Engineering: Current ...

Performance-Based Fire Safety Engineering: Current Situation andEngineering: Current Situation and

Thoughts for the Future

Brian J. Meacham, PhD, PE, FSFPE

Worcester Polytechnic Institute

JAssociate Professor

Madrid, del 23 al 25 de febrero de 2010 / Madrid, 23rd to 25th of February of 2011Madrid, del 23 al 25 de febrero de 2010 / Madrid, 23rd to 25th of February of 2011

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgements

• I would like to extend my sincere appreciation to APICI y ppand the organizers of this important international conference for the invitation and for generously

ti ti i tisupporting my participation.

Disclaimer• This talk reflects my observations and opinions. I do

t l i t i l d ll d t th t it ti

Disclaimer

not claim to include all data on the current situation or the ability to predict the future. I offer my perspectives with the hopes of challenging ourselves to continue towith the hopes of challenging ourselves to continue to develop our profession and to seek the support we need to do so.

OverviewOverview

• Current situation with performance-basedCurrent situation with performance based codes, performance-based design and fire safety engineeringsafety engineering

• Are we making reasonable progress?What challenges do we currently face?• What challenges do we currently face?

• What is the outlook for the future, and what role do we play in the process?

Countries Using / Exploring PB CodesCountries Using / Exploring PB Codes• Australia• Austria

• Norway• Poland• Austria

• Canada• China

• Poland• Saudi Arabia• Scotland

• Denmark• Dubai• England

• Singapore• South Africa• South Korea• England

• Finland• France

• South Korea• Spain• Sweden

• Hong Kong SAR• Japan• Kazakhstan

• Taiwan• UAE• UnitedKazakhstan

• Netherlands• New Zealand

United States

Bold denotes association with IRCC (www.IRCCbuildingregulations.org )

Evolution of Process and Design GuidanceEvolution of Process and Design Guidance

GSA A di D 1972• GSA Appendix D, 1972• Warren Centre, 1989• FCRC, 1996• BSI DD240, 1997• ISO TR 13387, 1999, …• SFPE, 2000, 2006, ,• BSI 7974, 2001• IFEG 2005• IFEG, 2005• BSI 9999, 2008

Activities in Nordic countries France Europe Korea• Activities in Nordic countries, France, Europe, Korea

Computational ToolsComputational Tools

mosquepraiseallah commosquepraiseallah.com

http://www.tropolism.com/2007/07/world_building_projects.php

http://www.brooklynpaper.com/stories/31/14/31_14_downtown.html

http://ny.curbed.com/archives/2008/11/26/napolean_complex_for_renzo_shanghai_wins_tallest_building.php

http://www.womansday.com/Articles/Lifestyle/Travel-Tips/9-Astonishingly-Asymmetrical-Buildings.html

Assessing Present and Future StatesAssessing Present and Future States

• It is clear we can do much more in terms of fire safety yengineering analysis than ever before, however:– Are we pleased with our progress?– Are there any challenges and gaps?– Do we have enough funding?g g– What might the future hold if we

a) fail to address the challenges, ) g ,b) move slowly, or c) become more aggressive? ) gg

Characterization of Engineering DisciplineCharacterization of Engineering Discipline

• Infancyy– Uncoordinated relationships between practice and

research, needs and solutions, and the profession and those developing the area itself

– Problems addressed tend to reflect personal tastes, ease of formulation or solution, and simple chance

– Applications tend to be ‘local’ – small parts of larger bl i l t d d l d ith t f tproblems isolated and resolved without reference to

a broader framework, as no framework exitsThe major attention is often given to certain minor– The major attention is often given to certain minor problems that have been popularized only by the internal dynamics of the small research community te a dy a cs o t e s a esea c co u ty


• Maturityy– Smooth interaction between research and practice– A vocabulary has evolved, a general framework y , g

exists, and the capabilities and limitations of the area are widely appreciated

– Most practitioners have received exposure to the subject, are accustomed to recognizing the kinds of it ti i hi h th th d i li bl d tsituations in which the method is applicable, and to

articulating problems in the language of the area Most research is being conducted in response to– Most research is being conducted in response to obvious needs of practice


• Adolescence– Stimulated by larger numbers of contributors,

growth is fast, and in some problem areas, is beginning to follow rather than anticipate

– New practice-generated problems for research are being identified – not only by growing numbers of experienced researchers – but also by the engineers in practice who have begun to appreciateengineers in practice who have begun to appreciate which of their old problems the new area can help

– Establishment of certain consensus positions thatEstablishment of certain consensus positions that determine both a framework and a viable set of solutions for some broadly defined problem areas


• Adolescence– Initial reactions from practice are often poorly

articulated and often, unfortunately, too optimistic. – The development and internal coordination of the

area are still largely incomplete: • Some topics are virtually untouched, limits of

effectiveness of the parts or the whole are not ll d t dwell understood

• Some applications are rather naively formulatedS ti l li ti h b t• Some practical applications have begun to address a larger framework but not yet with the confidence or the wisdom of experienceconfidence or the wisdom of experience


• My assessment is that fire safety engineering, y y g g,performance-based fire protection design, and risk-informed performance-based regulations are in the d l t t f d l tadolescent stage of development.– The good news: significant opportunity to continue

to advanceto advance– The bad news: rate of advancement slowing,

funding decreasing new professional and ethicalfunding decreasing, new professional and ethical challenges developing, and making progress becoming more difficultg

FSE Investment and ImpactsFSE Investment and Impacts

In US, from 1973 to 2003, federal funding of university fire researchIn US, from 1973 to 2003, federal funding of university fire research declined approximately 85 percent in real terms (NAP, 2003)

Technical ChallengesTechnical Challenges

• We still lack data in critical areas of hazard, people , p pand risk, we have few global resources, and the resources are not connected or always easy to find

• We have computational tools for fire (e.g., FDS), people (e.g., Legion), structure (e.g., ABAQUS), risk (e g FIRECAM) but there are concerns over validity(e.g., FIRECAM), but there are concerns over validity of tools for the applications in which they are used, availability of input data, incorporation of uncertainty.availability of input data, incorporation of uncertainty. and capabilities of modelers and review authorities

• FSE frameworks remain very broadly defined – no y yanalytical or numerical relationships (such as in Load and Resistance Factor Design), and very little d i l 10advancement in last 10 years

Data Tools and MethodsData, Tools and Methods

Rein, Torero, Jahn, et al. Round-Robin Study of a priori Modelling Predictions of The Dalmarnock Fire Test One, Fire Safety Journal 44 (4), 590 602 2009 d i 10 1016/j fi f 2008 12 008 C il bl t htt // lib d k/h dl /1842/1152pp. 590-602, 2009. doi:10.1016/j.firesaf.2008.12.008 Copy available at http://www.era.lib.ed.ac.uk/handle/1842/1152

Data Tools and MethodsData, Tools and Methods

• US Court ruling (Daubert) defined "scientific g ( )methodology" as basis for expert testimony and established a test:– Empirical testing: the theory or technique must be

falsifiable, and testable.– Subjected to peer review and publication.– Known or potential error rate.– The existence and maintenance of standards and

controls concerning its operation.D t hi h th th d t h i i– Degree to which the theory and technique is generally accepted by a relevant scientific communitycommunity.

Stochastic Nature of FireStochastic Nature of Fire

09

1

0.7

0.8

0.9

Entranceway

0.5

0.6

obab

ility Room of

Origin

0.3

0.4Pro

0

0.1

0.2

00 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 480

Time (s)N t i i K A Th R l f U t i t i I i Fi P t ti R l ti PhD di t ti C i M llNotarianni, K.A., The Role of Uncertainty in Improving Fire Protection Regulation, PhD dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 2005.

Stochastic Nature of FireStochastic Nature of Fire

CDF - Evacuation Time (Office Building)( g)

0.91

0 50.60.70.8

bilit

y

0 20.30.40.5

Prob

a

00.10.2

150 200 250 300 350 400 450

Total Evacuation Time [sec]

Lord, J., Meacham, B.J., Moore, A., Fahy, R. and Proulx, G., Guide for Evaluating the Predictive Capability of Computer y g yEgress Models, NIST GCR 06-886, National Institute of Standards and Technology, Building and Fire Research Laboratory, Gaithersburg, MD, December 2005.

Innovation Outpacing ReadinessInnovation Outpacing Readiness

• Example: Leaky Buildings in New Zealandp y g– Performance building regulatory system 1992– Promoted innovation – often good resultsg– However, sometimes challenges

• Inadequate design rigor, evidence basis,Inadequate design rigor, evidence basis, building methods or material applied and lack of effective supervision

• Qualitative performance requirements, lacking in specificity, relied heavily on expert interpretation


• Example: Leaky Buildings in New Zealandp y g– Significant changes

• BIA abolished, DBH established,• Revision to Building Act• Review of the Building CodeReview of the Building Code

– All areas – fire, structural, weatherproofing, etc

– Call for better quantification of performance –better ties to levels of tolerable risk

• Quality system for Territorial Authorities• Practitioner licensing


• Lessons learned / steps takenp– New framework for PB fire in regulations proposed

• Risk-informed but not risk-based

– Categories of building performance / tolerable risk (follows ICCPC approach)

– Defined fires (NFPA and ICC), defined criteria (BSI primary basis) and defined

th d f l ti (i )methods of evaluation (in some cases)• http://www.dbh.govt.nz/consultingon-protection-from-fire• http://www dbh govt nz/UserFiles/File/Consulting/pdf/C-• http://www.dbh.govt.nz/UserFiles/File/Consulting/pdf/C-

consultation-appendix-B-proposed-verification-method.pdf

Unethical Behavior a ThreatUnethical Behavior a Threat

• Aneha scandal in Japanp– More and more reliance on computational methods– Falsification of structural calculations in Japanp

• Ran the calculations with the correct input values, but which yielded an unacceptable youtcome (calculation A),

• Ran another set of calculations with incorrect inputs, but which yielded acceptable outcomes (calculation B)C bi d th fi t t f l l ti A ( t• Combined the first part of calculation A (correct inputs) with the second part of calculation B (safe outcome)(safe outcome).

Several buildings had to be demolished -percentage is that of code requiredrequired resistance to forces

Images courtesy of MLIT

Unethical Behavior a ThreatUnethical Behavior a Threat

• Outcomes– Significant

regulatory change

– Tighter control– More oversight

Challenges Associated with “Green”Challenges Associated with Green

• Natural ventilation vs• Natural ventilation vs. smoke managementNew materials for thermal• New materials for thermal performanceFi fi h d• Fire fighter access and operations

• External and internal fire threats

• Water restrictions / availabilityy

Possible FuturesPossible Futures

• If we refuse to take up the challenges, the discipline p g , pcould stagnate– More regulatory and legal challenges to FSE and

PBD due to lack of data and scientific basis– Increased risk of significant loss because we don’t

address data, tools and methods, need for holistic framework, education across the sector, and ethicsPBD b ‘ ib d f ’ th– PBD becomes more ‘prescribed performance’ than ‘objective-based’ performanceLimits to resolving stochastic problems with– Limits to resolving stochastic problems with deterministic means

– No growth in educational or funding for research– No growth in educational or funding for research


• Slow and incremental growthg– “Business as usual”– Incremental addition to data, but no global resource, g– We make progress on defining components such

as fire scenarios, design basis fires, performance gcriteria, etc, but slow to incorporate probabilistic methods

– Education continues to lag, but new programs open, and more FSEs are employed by research entities regulatory and enforcement agencies andentities, regulatory and enforcement agencies, and industry

– Begin to develop holistic approach– Begin to develop holistic approach


• Transformational changeg– Collaborate with other disciplines to develop holistic

framework - FSE part of BIM and integrated design– Advance probabilistic basis to reflect stochastic

nature of fire– Create internationally-linked databases with access

for all– Create widely accessible virtual education

environmentsC ll b t l b ll f h i t t– Collaborate globally for research investment on order of 100s of millions of EurosFocus on eradicating not just controlling fire threat– Focus on eradicating, not just controlling, fire threat

More Holistic FrameworkMore Holistic FrameworkSustainable and Resilient Building Design

Human FactorsDecision-makingResponse to HazardsMaterials

g g

PeopleResponse to HazardsRisk Tolerance

MaterialsConstructionSystemsA ibilit BuildingAccessibilityAestheticsComfort

FireUseability

FuelIgnition sourcesVentilation

Stochastic FrameworkStochastic Framework

Decision VariableDecision Variable•• Collapse & CasualtiesCollapse & Casualties Decision VariableDecision Variable

•• Direct Financial LossDirect Financial Loss

•• DowntimeDowntime

Damage MeasureDamage Measure

Engineering Demand Engineering Demand ParameterParameterdrift as an EDPdrift as an EDP

Intensity MeasureIntensity MeasureIntensity MeasureIntensity MeasureSource: Source: DeierleinDeierlein

Stochastic FrameworkStochastic Framework

LLossoss functionsfunctions

E [ L E [ L jj| DM ]| DM ]

P ( L i | DMi )

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0

DM1

DM2

DM3

EvaluateEvaluate

Fragility functionsFragility functions

P( DM = dm | P( DM = dm | EDPEDPjj )) 0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

DM1

P (DM | EDP)

Normalized LossEvaluate Evaluate E(E(LLjj | | EDPEDPjj = = edpedp))

Evaluate Evaluate EE [[ LLjj | IM = im| IM = im ]]

ResponseResponse simulationsimulationStory

5

6

7Sd = 4 in Sd = 8 inSd = 12 in Sd = 16 in

( |( | jj ))0.0

0.2

0 0.025 0.05 0.075

IDR

DM2 DM3 DM4

E E [ [ LLjj | IM im| IM im ]]

ΣΣResponse Response simulationsimulationP( P( EDPEDPjj > > edpedp | IM )| IM )

1

2

3

4

5

0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07

median EDP1(IDR)

Sd = 16 in Sd = 20 in Sd = 24 in

E [ LE [ LTT | IM] = | IM] = ΣΣ E [L E [L j j | IM ]| IM ]

E d L f IM S iE d L f IM S iExpected Loss for IM ScenarioExpected Loss for IM Scenario

Source: Source: DeierleinDeierlein

Stochastic FrameworkStochastic FrameworkDecision VariableDecision Variable•• Collapse & CasualtiesCollapse & Casualties

•• Direct Financial LossDirect Financial Loss

•• DowntimeDowntimeDamage MeasureDamage Measure

Engineering Demand Engineering Demand

8 0 0

9 0 0

1 0 0 0

G a s

g gg gParameterParameter

0 3 0 6 0 9 0 1 2 0 1 5 0 1 8 0 2 1 0 2 4 00

1 0 0

2 0 0

3 0 0

4 0 0

5 0 0

6 0 0

7 0 0

8 0 0 G a s U n p o r t e c t e d S t e e lIn s u la t e d S t e e l

Intensity MeasureIntensity Measure

COMPARTMENT TIME COMPARTMENT TIME –– TEMP. TEMP. CURVESCURVES

Source: Source: DeierleinDeierlein


In US, from 1973 to 2003, federal funding of university fire researchIn US, from 1973 to 2003, federal funding of university fire research declined approximately 85 percent in real terms (NAP, 2003)

ConclusionsConclusions

• Fire safety engineering, performance-based design, and y g g, p g ,performance-based regulation continues to evolve, but at a slow, under-funded pace

• We face challenges associated with data, reliability of analysis, comprehensiveness of evaluation, ethics and education this translates into market confidenceeducation – this translates into market confidence

• To advance, we need to work together – internationally to increase funding develop more holistic engineering– to increase funding, develop more holistic engineering

frameworks, be explicit about stochastic nature of fire, develop global databases, demonstrate reliability of or p g , yanalytical and computational tools, and expand education for all sectors

Gracias por su atenciónGracias por su atenciónGracias por su atenciónGracias por su atenciónThanks for your attentionThanks for your attention

Brian J. Meacham, PhD, PE, FSFPE

Worcester Polytechnic InstituteAssociate Professor

Madrid, del 23 al 25 de febrero de 2010 / Madrid, 23rd to 25th of February of 2011Madrid, del 23 al 25 de febrero de 2010 / Madrid, 23rd to 25th of February of 2011

Performance-Based Fire Safety Engineering: Current ...

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