Monitoring Household Coping strategies in Kenyastrategies in Kenya

Mary Amuyunzu-Nyamongo & Alice Sereti Sinkeet9th PEP Research Network General Meeting 3-9 December 2011

CBMS Kenya Team

Outlinek d1. Background

2. Objectives3. Methods4. Limitations45. Results6. Conclusions6. Conclusions7. Implications

Background

• Kenya was involved in the CBMS-coordinated study in 2009/10 in response to the GFC/ p

• The study was conducted in Murang’a, Kenya in November 2009 involving 2,256 householdsR l h d h h h ld h i d• Results showed that households that experienced declines in remittances and job losses were markedly affected in terms of access to food andmarkedly affected in terms of access to food and other basic services

• The impacts of the crisis were compounded by other p p yadverse conditions - drought, post-election violence and an escalation in food prices

Objectives

1. Assess the impact of internal and external shocks to phouseholds

2. Document the coping strategies adopted by households during crises periodsduring crises periods

3. Determine the consequences of the coping strategies adopted by households to cope with complex crises and shocksand shocks

4. Assess the relevance of CBMS in monitoring households’ coping strategies during impacts on complex crises and shockscomplex crises and shocks

5. Determine how national policies could best support and protect children, women and poor households d i i d i dduring crises and recovery periods

Methods

• Data collection was conducted using a standard CBMS household questionnaire that was adjusted to capture experiences of shocks and household coping strategies

• 719 households were involved in the study (the same households took part in the initial study p yconducted in 2009)

Study site (1)• The major criteria for inclusion: (i) households had a

CBMS house number; and (ii) the name of household h d t d ihead as captured in 2009

• Data were collected in Njoguini Ward of Murang’a county• Through the Ministry of Planning Njoguini has been• Through the Ministry of Planning, Njoguini has been

provided with a borehole to solve water problem that was identified as a key problem during the initial studyidentified as a key problem during the initial study

• The community is very supportive of the project

Study site (2)

Njoguini poverty map – access to water

Limitations• Limited timeframe during which the data were

collected and processed (the current presentation is thus based on preliminary results)

• Movement of households which made it difficult to trace the same households since the last survey (2009) and the current survey

• Data processing is still ongoing (therefore a p g g g (comprehensive/coherent report will be available at a later date))

Results (1) – Experience of severe shock

National level inflation

Nominal food prices

Source: FEWSNET, August 2011

Results (2)

• When asked to describe the quality of life relative to how it was 12 months prior to the census, majority (94.4%) reported that it was “worse”

• The study was conducted when the country was grappling with high fuel and food prices

• Inflation rate that was estimated to stand at 19.72 percent in November 2011 http://www.tradingeconomics.com/kenya/inflation-cpi)

Impact of shocks

• 93.7% of those households that experienced increase in food prices also reported increased household expenditure

• 56.4% of the households affected by drought 5 4 y gsaw a decline in income

• 92.5% of households that were affected by an 9 5 yincrease in fuel prices also saw an increase in household expensesp

• Serious illnesses also led to 5.4% of the affected households experiencing job losseshouseholds experiencing job losses

Coping strategies

Further analysis

• Compare reported experiences of shocks and coping strategies among the 719 households between the 1st (2009) and 2nd (2011) datasets

• Assess the coping strategies to the main shocks p g gand the differentials (for instance, what is the predominant response to high fuel prices?)p p g p )

• Assess the impacts of shocks based on the main shocks (for instance, which shocks lead to school ( ,drop out?)

Study implications

• The shocks cited by the respondents (food prices and fuel prices impact the poor more and areand fuel prices impact the poor more and are driven by external factors

• The negative impacts of the coping strategiesThe negative impacts of the coping strategies adopted by the households could be ameliorated by increasing access to waivers, subsidies and targeted support during crisis

• Considering use of CBMS as a targeting tool for i l i i ( h k isocial protection in Kenya (the key question to

ask is whether the Government is able to vary transfers based on shocks)transfers based on shocks)

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