People Centered Initiatives Feb 18, 2010

MegaWatts on Main StreetA Carbon Finance Speaker Series at Yale

Presenting Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez in“People Centered Initiatives: Estimating the Potential for Behavior-Related Energy Savings

and why they are Necessary”

Brought to you by the Center for Business and the Environment at Yalethrough the generous support of the Emily Hall Tremaine Foundation

http://e2ma.net/go/6545109311/208047796/209609799/32870/goto:http:/students.som.yale.edu/sigs/energy/

Human Dimensions Research Associates Smart Energy Initiatives through Applied Social Science Research

People-Centered Initiatives:

Estimating Potential Behavior-Related Energy Saving

Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, Ph.D.Megawatts on Main Street Webinar, February 18, 2010


Opening Thoughts

• Leading an Energy Revolution• “Science and technology can

create much better choices.” (Chu 2009)

• We won’t get there unless we bring people back into the process.


Creating an Energy Revolution

A revolution doesn’t happen when society adopts new tools, it happens when society adopts new behaviors.

Clay Shirky, Digital Guru


Traditional Approaches to Efficiency

The “official future”

Add more productive technology

With a little behavioral change

And with a little imagination. . .

Imagine a U.S. economy in 2030 that is 70% larger than today


Saving Energy in a Hurry

• What is Possible?• In 6 weeks Juneau Alaska cut it’s electricity

consumption by more than 30 percent.• A dramatic conservation campaign resulting

from a sense of urgency and efficacy.• Post-repair electricity consumption

remained 10 percent lower than one year earlier.

• Juneau’s experience represents the effectiveness of broad mobilization to save energy.


Estimating the Behavioral Resource

• Current Consumption: Residential energy use and household use of personal vehicles = 38% of total U.S. energy consumption today.

• The Question: What is the scale of potential energy savings assuming people-centered approaches?

• The Method: – Identifying more than 100 separate conservation and

energy efficiency measures (all cost-effective) that could be taken in a short period of time.

– Apply a Monte Carlo probability simulation – allowing a random distribution of eligibility, participation, and saving magnitudes – we found an energy savings potential on the order of about 9 Quads compared to current use.


U.S. Residential Energy End Uses (2008)

End Use CategoryEnergy

Consumed (Quads)

Percent of Total

Space Heating 6.2 16.1%

Air Conditioning 2.4 6.1%

Lighting 2.3 6.0%

Hot Water 2.5 6.3%

Refrigeration 1.4 3.8%

Consumer Appliances 3.3 8.6%

Other Uses Not Specified 4.0 10.4%

Personal Transportation 16.5 42.8%

Total End Use Energy 38.5 100.0%


Categories of Household Behaviors that Impact Residential End Use

Ener gy Stoc k tak ing BehaviorHabitual Behavior s and

Lifestyl es

Install CFLs Slower Highway DrivingPull fridge away from wall Slower Acceleration

Inflate tires adequately Air Dry LaundryInstall Weather Stripping Turn Off Computer and Other Devices

Consumer Behavior

New EE WindowsNew EE AppliancesAdditional Insulation

New EE CarNew EE AC or Furnace

Cost

Higher cost / Investment

Low-cost / no cost

Infrequent Frequent

Frequency of Action


Range of Participation Rates and Savings by End Use Category

Major End Uses

Range ofPotential Savings

Range ofPolicy-drivenParticipation

ExpectedSavings

Space Heating 18-36% 3-40% 27%

Air Conditioning 19-47% 2-75% 33%

Lighting 10-53% 20-80% 32%

Hot Water 6-26% 3-75% 16%

Refrigeration 17-55% 5-75% 36%

Consumer Appliances 6-20% 40-80% 13%

Other Uses 12-24% 30-50% 18%

Personal Transport 14-33% 30-80% 24%

Total End Use Impacts 18-28% n/a 23%


Potential Near-Term Household and Personal Transportation Energy Savings

Category of ActionsPotential National

Energy Savings (Quads)

Conservation, Lifestyle, Awareness, Low-Cost Actions

4.9 (57% of total savings)

Investment Decisions 3.7 (43% of total savings)

Total Energy Savings~8.6 +/- 1.5 (22% of HH

energy)


How Much is 9 Quads of Energy Savings?

• ~9% of total U.S. energy consumption in 2008;• ~600 gallons of gasoline equivalent per household;• ~240 medium coal-fired power plants; and• Roughly equal to total annual energy consumption

of either Brazil or South Korea, and just slightly less than total annual energy consumption in the UK (~10 Quads), France (~11 Quads) and Germany (~14 Quads)

Conclusion? Even these conservative estimates indicate that a people-centered approach could result in significant energy savings – but they would require a meaningful shift in policy.


What are Behavior-Savvy Strategies?

•Targeting - people and actions•Informing - energy, technologies,

and programs•Motivating - norms, networks, goals

and commitments•Empowering - removing financial

and structural barriers and providing better choices


Targeting – People and Actions

•Social Marketing •Community-Based Social Marketing

• Home Weatherization?• Smaller Houses?• CFLs?• Air drying laundry?• Public Transportation?• Anti-Idling?


Informing – Energy Consumption, Technologies, and

Programs•Energy Consumption Feedback

The Energy Detective

Power Cost MonitorSavings: 5-15%


Motivating – Norms, Networks, Goals,

and Commitments•Communicating Social Norms

Savings: 2.5-3.0%


Empowering – Removing barriers and providing better choices•Choice Architecture

• Choice architecture is about creating a context in which people are likely to make better decisions – decision that will make choosers better off, as judged by themselves. (Thaler and Sunstein 2008)

• Inertia and the Status Quo Bias

• BECC Low-Carbon Lunch Experiment


BECC Low-Carbon Lunch

ACEEE Conference Standard

BECC 2007

BECC 2009

Meat-Based Lunch 90-95% 83% 20%

Veg. Lunch 5-10% 17% 80%

Meat production is responsible for 18% of GHG emissions – around 40% more than the entire transport sector (Pew Commission 2008)

Omnivores contribute 7 times the GHG emissions than vegans Large Indirect

Savings


Closing Thoughts

Revolutions don’t Happen without popular support and widespread participation.

Large Energy Savings can Come from Addressing the Social and Behavioral Dimensions of Energy.

Understanding the Human Dimensions of Energy Savings is Essential for Meeting Climate Change Goals.

More Social Science Needs to be Integrated into Energy and Climate Change Policy.


For Further Information Contact:

Karen Ehrhardt-Martinez, [email protected]

People Centered Initiatives Feb 18, 2010

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