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Transcript of Penrith Group Services
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PENRITH GROUPFinancial Advisory Services
and
CEO Luncheon DiscussionNet Worth ~ Loss Reserves ~ Compliance
June 23, 2010
6/28/2010 1Penrith Confidential
present
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Current Context
Regulatory Compliance (meet NCUA requirements); FAS 5 & FAS 114
Net worth & CapitalizationRequirements
Portfolio Rebalancing for Risk-Based Net Worth requirements;
achieving required capitalization classification; resumption and
growth in lending activities
Objectives Benefits
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 2
Portfolio Valuation
Advisory Services
comp ance; an ar za on o prac ces
Determine portfolio and loan-level pricing based on Industry standard
practices
Participation in Board, Audit and Regulatory reviews; financial
engineering services
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Penrith Group
Financial AdvisoryFirm Specializing in
Risk Assessment andValuation of
Commercial,Residential &
About Us Focus Areas
Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses(ALLL); Compliance to FAS5 and
FAS114Risk Assessment
Portfolio StrategyTime based Analysis; Stress Testing;
Portfolio Benchmarking
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 3
Consumer Debt
Clients comprising of
Banks, Credit Unions,Private Equity Firmsand Other Financial
Institutions
Portfolio Valuation
Net Worth &Capitalization Analysis
Hedging Strategies
Transaction & DealAdvisory
Time and Scenario based Analysis;Portfolio Stress Testing
Risk Based Net Worth Analysis;Portfolio Rebalancing
Hedging Strategies to manageexposure to fixed or floating rate
assets & liabilities
Deal Structure Analysis, Cash-flowwaterfalls, Calculation of IRR
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Recent Engagements
Credit Union
Las Vegas
Private Equity Firm
New York
Federal Credit Union
Los Angeles
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 4
Risk Assessment of $440
mm Residential plus $300
mm Auto and Consumer
Loan Portfolio
Jun 2010
Deal Advisory for bid on
$1.3 bn Residential Loan
portfolio
Aug 2009
Risk Assessment of $500
mm Commercial,
Residential & Consumer
Loan portfolio
Sept 2009 - Present
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Net worth & Capitalization Analysis
Net worth Ratio (Net Worthto Assets)
Net worth Ratio & Risk BasedNet worth (RBNW)
Well Capitalized or Adequately Capitalized Credit Unions are
subject to fulfilment of both requirements
7% or more is considered well capitalized ; 6-6.99% isconsidered adequately capitalized
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 5
RBNW Calculation
RBNW (8 types of Risk BasedAsset Classification)
Long Term Real Estate Loans, MBL outstanding, Investments,
Loans with recourse, Low Risk Assets, Average Risk Assets,
Unused MBL commitments and Allowances
Weighted average of the corresponding risk based Net Worth
requirement of the individual components
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Net worth Analysis Process
Asset Segmentation
based on Risk
Classification
RBNW based
Stratification
(e.g., Maturity)
RBNW Calculation &
Comparison based on
Standard Component
and AlternativeComponent Methods
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 6
Look at Weighted Avg.impact of
assets/segments on
RBNW
Portfolio Rebalancingstrategies for achieving
required capitalization
classification
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Risk Assessment (1 of 2)
Portfolio
Composition
Analysis
Forward Looking
Analysis of Credit
Risk & Interest
Rates
Cash Flow Analysis
(Loan Level)
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 7
Statistical Analysis
ALLL
Recommendations
(FAS5 and FAS114
Compliance)
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Risk Assessment (2 of 2)
Consumer Loans (Auto,
Credit Card, HELOC and
Unsecured)
Type of Loans Treatment
FAS 5 treatment: Aggregate loans and
use historical statistics & other
composite measures for evaluatingimpairment
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 8
Commercial andResidential Mortgages
FAS 114 treatment: Measure
impairment based on present value ofexpected future cash-flows discounted
at effective interest rate
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Portfolio Strategy
Time based Analysis &Stress Testing
Portfolio Benchmarking& Risk vs. Return
Portfolio Strategy
0.20
0.40
0.60
LS
Base Case
Market Snapshot
National Trends
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 9
Time basedAnalysis
PortfolioBenchmarking
Stress Testing
Risk vs. Return
Analysis
Penrith
0.00
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40
DR
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40
LS
DR
Recession
PortfolioSegmentation
Delinquency Trends
Ranking based onComp Set, MSA andregion
Growth & LiquidationStrategies
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Portfolio Valuation
Portfolio AnalysisStochastic Analysis of
Credit Risk Vectors
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
20-40 40-50 50-60 60-80 80-100 100-110
Price(%o
fCB)
Price Distribution
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 10
Cash Flow Analysis
(Loan Level)
Statistical Analysis
(based on standard
normal distribution)
OAS Pricing at
multiple spreads to
benchmark yield
(e.g., 400, 800, 1200
bps)
400 bps 600 bps 800 bps 1000 bps
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Hedging Strategies
2.00%
2.50%
3.00%
3.50%
4.00%
4.50%
5.00%
Treasury 5-Year
Hedge Size
Basis Risk
WAL and Duration
Hedging Parameters
Notional Amount / Optimal
Hedge Ratio
Frequency of Payment Stream
Matching Hedge Instrument
with Asset or Liability
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 11
1.00%
.
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36
Flat Falling Double Dip Moodys
Amortization
Hedge Term
Hedge
Static vs. Rollover Positions
Interest Rate Derivatives
Swaps
Futures
Can be customized; minimal basis risk; subject to counterparty credit risk;can result in negative net cash-flows
Exchange Traded; Established settlement process; virtually no counterpartycredit risk; High basis risk; Variability in Optimal Hedge Ratio; can result in
negative net cash-flows
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Transaction & Deal Advisory
Deal Evaluation
Term-Sheet AnalysisSenior-Subordination, Leverage, Embedded Call
Options
Credit, Capacity, Collateral Risk Analysis and DealPricing
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 12
Returns Analysis
Cash-Flow WaterfallCash Flow Priority, Performance Triggers, StepDowns & Step Ups, Principal & Interest Payoffs
B/E Analysis and IRR at different economicscenarios
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Proven Track Record
Extensive MortgageBackground
Cross-Functional Expertise
Expertise spanning Origination, Servicing (SpecialServicing), REO Property Preservation and Secondary
Marketing
File Reviews & Due Diligence; Financial Modeling;Statistical Analysis; Risk Management; Data
Management Systems
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 13
Strong Partnerships
Impeccable Credentials
Diverse Asset Expertise
Partnerships with Standard & Poors, PPR Compassand TREPP for highly discounted pricing to Penriths
Credit Union clients
In the Mortgage Banking Industry for more than 15
years with solid reputation and long-lasting clientele
Experience in handling Multiple Asset Types(Commercial, Residential 1st TD and 2nd TD,
Consumer Auto, Credit Card, Unsecured and HELOC)
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Leadership Team (1 of 2)
Mr. Meiswinkel is the President of Penrith Group. Prior to joining Penrith, Mr.
Meiswinkel founded Lucre International Corporation, a national due diligence and
software development firm. Mr. Meiswinkel successfully managed the sale of Lucres
due diligence platform, an acquisition by Clayton Holdings.
Prior to founding Lucre, Mr. Meiswinkel co-founded The Bohan Group and acted as
President and COO 1995-2004 where he managed all aspects of nation wide
operations in San Francisco, New York, and Irvine. He oversaw more than 2,500transactions between originators and investment banks totaling over 5 million loans
Carl MeiswinkelPresident
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 14
an manage more an na ona au eams wee y.
Mr. Narayanan is co-head of the Portfolio Management Team and specializes in
valuation and risk management of mortgage assets. Prior to joining Penrith, Mr.
Narayanan was co-founder and managing partner of 14e Capital Advisors.
Previously, Mr. Narayanan was a Capital Markets consultant at a top Mortgage
Company and a JSDA licensed trader at Lehman Brothers in Japan. Mr. Narayanan is
also a regular speaker at national mortgage conferences.
Mr. Narayanan has an MBA from Indian Institute of Management and UCLA,
Anderson School of Management.
Anand NarayananVP, Risk Management
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Leadership Team (2 of 2)
Sanjay RaghavanVP, Portfolio Strategy
Mr. Raghavan is co-head of Penriths Portfolio Management and specializes in
portfolio strategy and risk assessment of mortgage assets. Prior to joining Penrith,
Mr. Raghavan was co-founder and managing partner of 14e Capital Advisors.
Previously, Mr. Raghavan was a consultant at a top Mortgage Company and an
analyst at Kothari Pioneer Asset Management Company. Mr. Raghavan is also a
regular speaker at national mortgage conferences.
Mr. Ra havan holds a MBA from The Wharton School, Universit of Penns lvania
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 15
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Contact Us
Carl Meiswinkel
Office: (949) 347-7700
Mobile: (949) 933-9803
Kara Harrington
Managing [email protected]
Office: (336) 510-9901
Mobile: (336) 324-7173
6/28/2010 Penrith Confidential 16
nan arayanan
VP, Risk [email protected]
Office: (949) 347-7700
Mobile: (714) 658-6053
an ay ag avan
VP, Portfolio [email protected]
Office: (949) 347-7700
Mobile: (714) 922-0230
28202 Cabot Road, Suite 225
Laguna Niguel, CA 92677
T 949.347.7700 F 949.347.7701
www.penrithgroup.com
7 Corporate Center, Suite B
Greensboro, NC 27408
T 336.510.9901 F 336.510.1405
www.penrithgroup.com
10 G Street NE, Suite 710
Washington, DC 20002
T 202.248.5012 F 202.558.5210
www.penrithgroup.com