Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Sektor ...

Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Vol 40 No. 1 , 1992

Pengaruh Pertumbuhan Ekonomi terhadap Nilai Tukar Sektor Pertanian: Landasan Teoritis dan

Bukti Empiris

Pantjar Simatupang Brahmantio isdijoso

Abstract

This paper presents a theoretical framework on the dynamics of agriculture sector barter terms of trade in a growing economy.lt is shown that tlie declining trend of the agricultural terms of trend is a natural phenomenon in a growing economy, because the demand for agriculniral product is income inelastic. The income elasticity of the agricultural product generally decreases with real income witch further enforces the declining trend of agricultural terms of trade. Moreover, the declining trend of the agricultural terms of trade is also inhibited by government inter\entions which biased toward high agricultural production, low food prices and high non-agricultural development.

3 3

http://economy.lt

Simatupang dan Isdijoso

I . Pendahuhian

D i s a m p i n g p r o d u k t i v i t a s , n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m e r u p a k a n i n d i k a t o r u t a m a p e n d a p a t a n p a r a p e t a n i . O l e h k a r e n a i t u p e r k e m b a n g a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n s e r i n g k a l i d i p a k a i s e b a g a i i n d i k a t o r k e s e j a h t e r a a n p e t a n i . S e h u b u n g a n d e n g a n i t u p e r k e m b a n g a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t m e n d a p a t k a n p e r h a t i a n y a n g k h u s u s d a r i p a r a p e n g a m b i l k e b i j a k a n m a u p u n p a r a p e n e l i t i .

T i d a k d a p a t d i m u n g k i r i , p e n e l i t i a n t e n t a n g n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e l a h c u k u p b a n y a k j u m l a h n y a . N a m u n p e n e l i t i a n t e r s e b u t p a d a u m u m n y a l e b i h m e n e k a n k a n p a d a a s p e k e m p i r i s n y a d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l , k a l a u a d a , y a n g b e r s i f a t ad-hoc. P e n e l i t i a n s e m a c a m i t u s a n g a t b e r g u n a u n t u k v e r i f i k a s i k e a d a a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n d i s u a t u t e m p a t d a n p a d a w a k t u t e r t e n t u . M e s k i p u n d e m i k i a n , h a s i l d a r i p e n e l i t i a n y a n g m e m p e r g u n a k a n m o d e l ad-hoc t e r l a l u r i s k a n u n t u k d i g e n e r a l i s a s i . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , h a s i l p e n e l i t i a n t e r s e b u t k u r a n g d a p a t d i a n d a l k a n u n t u k d i p a k a i s e b a g a i a c u a n k e b i j a k a n d a n p e r e n c a n a a n p e m b a n g u n a n p e r t a n i a n .

P e n y u s u n a n k e b i j a k a n d a n p e r e n c a n a a n p e m b a n g u n a n p e r t a n i a n m e m e r l u k a n i n f o r m a s i t e n t a n g n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n y a n g c u k u p h a n d a i . U n t u k i t u k i r a n y a p e r l u d i p e r o l e h s u a t u m o d e l p e r k i r a a n y a n g d i b a n g u n d e n g a n l a n d a s a n t e o r i t i s y a n g k u a t , k o n s i s t e n d a n t e r u j i s e c a r a e m p i r i s . M o d e l p e r k i r a a n s e m a c a m i n i t c n t u a k a n l e b i h b e r s i f a t u m u m v a l i d i t a s n y a .

P e n e l i t i a n i n i a k a n m e n c o b a m c n y u s i i n s u a t u k e r a n g k a t e o r i t i s d i n a m i k a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r . s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n b e r d a s a r k a n s u a t u m o d e l p e r e k o n o m i a n d u a s e k t o r . M o d e l t e r s e b u t s e i a n j u t n y a d i p a k a i u n t u k m e n g a n a l i s i s p e r i l a k u n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t d a l a m b e r b a g a i s k e n a r i o . S e i a n j u t n y a m o d e l y a n g d i p e r o l e h i t u d i u j i s e c a r a e m p i r i s d e n g a n m e m p e r g u n a k a n d a t a n d o n e s i a s e c a r a n a s i o n a l .

I I . Analisis Teoritis'

A n a l i s i s t e o r i t i s d i d a s a r k a n p a d a s i s t e m k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m a u p u n s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n ( i n d u s t r i ) . U n t u k m e n y e d e r h a n a k a n f u n g s i p e n a w a r a n d i a s u m s i k a n h a n y a d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h h a r g a p r o d u k - p r o d u k y a n g d i h a s i l k a n d a n t e k n o l o g i . S e c a r a u m u m f u n g s i

1 Bab ini di ambil dari Simatupang (1992)

34

Pengaruh Pembangunan Ekonomi

p e n a w a r a n t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i t u l i s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

Osi = Qsi ( P i , P2. K i ) (1)

d i m a n a : Qsi = P e n a w a r a n u n t u k p r o d u k i i = 1 u n t u k p r o d u k s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , d a n i = 2 u n t u k p r o d u k s e k t o r n o n p e r t a n i a n P i = H a r g a p r o d u k s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n P2 = H a r g a p r o d u k s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n K i = T i n g k a t t e k n o l o g i p a d a s e k t o r i

A p a b i l a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m l a j u p e r u b a h a n m a k a a k a n d i p e r o l e h h u b u n g a n b e r i k u t ^:

O m = S i i P j + Si2 P2 + T i ( 2 )

d i m a n a : Qsi = L a j u p e r u b a h a n j u m l a h p e n a w a r a n p r o d u k i • P i = L a j u p e r u b a h a n h a r g a p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n P2 = L a j u p e r u b a h a n h a r g a p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n T i = L a j u p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k i a k i b a t p e r u b a h a n t e k n o l o g i 511 = E l a s t i s i t a s p e n a w a r a n p r o d u k i t e r h a d a p h a r g a p r o d u k

p e r t a n i a n 512 = E l a s t i s i t a s p e n a w a r a n p r o d u k t e r h a d a p h a r g a p r o d u k

n o n - p e r t a n i a n

F u n g s i p e n a w a r a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 ) d i a n g g a p m e m e n u h i p e r i l a k u t e o r i t i s . H a l i n i b e r a r t i b a h w a f u n g s i p e n a w a r a n t e r s e b u t h o m o g e n b e r d e r a j a t n o l d a l a m h a r g a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , j u m l a h p e n a w a r a n t i d a k a k a n m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n a p a b i l a r a s i o h a r g a t e t a p . S i f a t i n i m e m p u n y a i i m p l i k a s i s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

S i i + S|2 = 0 a t a u S n = -812 ( 3 )

K i r a n y a s a n g a t j e l a s b a h w a s e c a r a t e o r i t i s e l a s t i s i t a s p e n a w a r a n t e r h a d a p h a r g a s e n d i r i s e l a l u b e r t a n d a p o s i t i f . J u m l a h p e n a w a r a n s u a t u b a r a n g a k a n m e n i n g k a t a p a b i l a h a r g a n y a m e n i n g k a t . S e b a l i k n y a

2 Untuk seianjutnya dalam tulisan ini setiap peubah yang diberi titik di atasnya berarti peubah tersebut dinyatakan dalam laju perubahan. Laju perubahan didefinisikan sebagai berikut:

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p e n a w a r a n s u a t u b a r a n g a k a n m e n u r u n a p a b i l a h a r g a p r o d u k s a i n g a n n y a m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n . J a d i e l a s t i s i t a s p e n a w a r a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 3 ) m e m p u n y a i k e s a m a a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

S i i > O d a n S i j < 0 - - • ( 4 )

S e b a g a i m a n a d i k e t a h u i , f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n s u a t u b a r a n g d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h h a r g a d a r i b a r a n g - b a r a n g y a n g d i k o n s u m s i d a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n . S e c a r a u m u m f u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n p e r k a p i t a u n t u k p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n d a n n o n - p e r t a n i a n d i t u l i s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

qdi = q i ( P i . P 2 , y ) ( 5 )

d i m a n a : q a i = P e r m i n t a a n p e r k a p i t a u n t u k p r o d u k i y = P e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a

T o t a l p e r m i n t a a n u n t u k s e t i a p p r o d u k a d a l a h h a s i l p e r k a l i a n a n t a r a p e r m i n t a a n p e r k a p i t a d e n g a n j u m l a h p r o d u k : .

Q o i = q d i x P ( 6 )

d i m a n a : Q d i = T o t a l p e r m i n t a a n u n t u k p r o d u k s i P = J u m l a h p e n d u d u k

A p a b i l a p r o d u k b e r t a m b a h d e n g a n l a j u y a n g t e t a p , m a k a d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 5 ) d a n ( 6 ) a k a n d a p a t d i p e r o l e h l a j u p e r t a m b a h a n t o t a l p e r m i n t a a n , y a i t u :

Q o i = E i i P i + E i 2 P 2 + E l y Y + n ( 7 )

d i m a n a : E n = E l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k i t e r h a d a p h a r g a p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n

E i 2 = E l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k i t e r h a d a p h a r g a p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n

n = L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k

F u n g s i p e r m i n t a a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 5 ) d i a s u m s i k a n b e r p e r i l a k u b a i k s e c a r a t e o r i t i s . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p s e t i a p p r o d u k b e r s i f a t h o m o g e n b e r d e r a j a t n o l d a l a m h a r g a - h a r g a d a n p e n d a p a t a n . S i f a t s e m a c a m i n i m e n g a n d u n g a r t i b a h w a p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p s u a t u b a r a n g t i d a k a k a n b e r u b a h a p a b i l a h a r g a p r o d u k - p r o d u k y a n g d i k o n s u m s i d a n t i n g k a t p e n d a p a t a n s a m a - s a m a b e r u b a h s e c a r a p r o p o r s i o n a l ( H e n d e r s o n a n d Q u a n d t , 1 9 8 0 ) . B e r d a s a r k a n s i f a t s e p e r t i i n i , m a k a e l a s t i s i t a s p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 7 ) m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

36

I


E i i + Ei2 + E i y = 0 ( 8 )

K i r a n y a j u g a s a n g a t j e l a s b a h w a u n t u k s u a t u b a r a n g n o r m a l j u m l a h p e r m i n t a a n a k a n m e n u r u n a p a b i l a h a r g a n y a n a i k d a n j u m l a h p e r m i n t a a n a k a n m e n i n g k a t a p a b i l a h a r g a b a r a n g s u b s t i t u s i n y a m e n i n g k a t . D a l a m s u a t u p e r e k o n o m i a n y a n g h a n y a t e r d i r i d a r i d u a s e k t o r , y a i t u s e k t o r p r e r t a n i a n d a n s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n , m a k a w a j a r l a h k a l a u p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n d a n p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n s a l i n g b e r s u b s t i t u s i d a l a m p e r m i n t a a n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n b e s a r a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n j u g a a k a n m e m e n u h i b a t a s a n b e r i k u t :

E i i < 0 d a n E y > 0 ( 9 )

P a d a u m u m n y a p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n t e r m a s u k k a t e g o r i b a r a n g k e b u t u h a n p o k o k . S e b a g a i b a h a n k e b u t u h a n p o k o k , m a k a p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n b i a s a n y a t i d a k e l a s t i s a t a u s e n a n t i a s a k u r a n g e l a s t i s d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n . B u k a n h a n y a t i d a k e l a s t i s , e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k - p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n j u g a c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n , s e d a n g k a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n c e n d e r u n g n a i k a p a b i l a p e n d a p a t a n m e n i n g k a t . H a l i n i a d a l a h s e s u a i d e n g a n h u k u m E n g c l y a n g t e r k e n a l i t u . O l e h k a r e n a i t u e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 7 ) j u g a a k a n m e m e n u h i :

E h < E i 2 ; E i v < E2V ; ^ < 0 , ^ > 0 6 y 6 y ( 1 0 )

D e n g a n s i f a t - s i f a t f u n g s i p e n a w a r a n d a n p e r m i n t a a n y a n g t e l a h d i u r a i k a n d i a t a s , s e k a r a n g m a r i i a h k i t a l i h a t d i n a m i k a h a r g a k e d u a p r o d u k p a d a t i t i k k e s e i m b a n g a n . T i t i k k e s e i m b a n g a n a k a n d i c a p a i a p a b i l a j u m l a h p e r m i n t a a n s a m a d e n g a n j u m l a h p e n a w a r a n . J a d i , d a l a m k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n , m a k a l a j u p e r t a m b a h a n p e n a w a r a n s e l a l u s a m a d e n g a n l a j u p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r m i n t a a n . B e r d a s a r k a n p e r s a m a a n ( 2 ) d a n ( 7 ) m a k a a k a n d a p a t l a h d i p e r o l e h p e r s a m a a n h a r g a p a d a k o n d i s i k e s e i m b a n g a n p a s a r y a n g b e r k e l a n j u t a n : [

S i i P i + S i2P2 + T i = E i i P ] + E i 2 P 2 + E i v Y + n

( S i 1 - E i , ) P i + ( Si2 - E i , ) P2 = E i y Y + n - T i

a t a u .

( S i i - E i i ) P i + ( S i 2 - E i 2 ) P 2 = E i y Y + n - T i ( 1 1 )

37


( S 2 1 - E 2 l ) P l + ( S 2 2 - E 2 2 ) P 2 = E2y Y + n - T2 ( 1 2 )

S i s t e m p e r s a m a a n ( 1 1 ) d a n ( 1 2 ) d a p a t p u l a d i t u l i s k a n d a l a m n o t a s i m a t r i k s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

( S u - E l l ) S i2 - E12) (S21 - E21) (S22 - E 2 2 )

P i P2

E l y Y + n - T i E2y Y + n - T2 ( 1 3 )

M i s a l k a n A = ( S i i - E l l ) S12 - E12) (S21 - E21) ( S 2 2 - E 2 2 )

U n t u k d a p a t m e n j a w a b s i s t e m p e r s a m a a n ( 1 3 ) d e n g a n m e t o d e C r a m e r m a r i i a h k i t a h i t i i n g d e t e r m i n a n A t e r l e b i h d a h u l u .

| A | = S11S22- S11E22-S22E11 + E11E22 - S12S21 + S12E21

+ S21E12- E12E21

D a r i p e r s a m a a n ( .3) k i t a m e n g e t a h u i b a h w a S u = - Si2, a t a u S u = -S12 d a n S22 = - S21 d e n g a n d e m i k i a n | A | a k a n d a p a t d i s e d e r h a n a k a n m e n j a d i :

| A | = E 1 1 E 2 2 - E 1 2 E 2 1 - S u ( E 2 2 + E 2 1 ) - S 2 2 ( E i i + E 1 2 )

S e i a n j u t n y a , d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 8 ) k i t a m e n g e t a h u i b a h w a E i i + Ei2 = - E i y . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n p e r s a m a a n d i a t a s d a p a t l e b i h d i s e d e r h a n a k a n m e n j a d i :

| A | = E i i E 2 ; - E i 2 E 2 i + S i i E 2 y + S22Eiy ( 1 4 )

S e i a n j u t n y a , d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 8 ) d i p e r o l e h p u l a :

E n E 2 2 = ( E i 2 + E l y ) (E21 + E2y)

= E 1 2 E 2 1 + E l 2 E 2 y + E 2 1 E 1 V + E l y E 2 y

a t a u , E11E22 - E12E21 = E i 2 E 2 y + E 2 i E 2 y + E21 E l y + E iyE2y ( 1 5 )

D e n g a n m e m a s u k k a n p e r s a m a a n ( 1 5 ) k e d a l a m p e r s a m a a n ( 1 4 ) m a k a a k a n d i p e r o l e h :

|A| = (S22 + E21) E ly + (Sll + E12) E2y + ElyE2y (16)

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o l e h k a r e n a S y > 0 , E i j > 0 , E j y > 0 , m a k a j e l a s l a h b a h w a | A | > 0

D e n g a n m e m p e r g u n a k a n m e t o d a C r a m e r , m a k a p e r u b a h a n h a r g a m a s i n g - m a s i n g p r o d u k a k a n d a p a t d i p e r o l e h d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 1 3 ) .

Al l

P2=

AT

A 2

• J A i j =

AT -.1 A2I

E l y y + n - T i (S12-E12) E l y Y + n - T2 (S22- E22)

( S i i - E i i ) E l y Y + n - T i ( S 2 1 - E21) E l y Y + n - T 2

| A i j = [ E l y (S22 - E22) + E2y ( S u + E12)] Y + n (S22 +S11+E l 2 - E 2 2 ) - T l ( S 2 2 - E 2 2 ) - T 2 ( S u + E l 2 ) ( 1 7 )

| A 2I = [E2y ( S l l - E u ) + E l y (S22 + E21)] Y + n ( S u +S22+E 21- E u ) -T2 ( S u - E u ) - T i ( S 2 2 + E 21) ( 1 8 )

N i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d e n g a n s e k t o r i n d u s t r i d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i r a s i o a n t a r a h a r g a p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n d e n g a n p r o d u k i n d u s t r i • 3

T O T = P2 ( 1 9 )

T O T = N i l a i T u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n

L a j u p e r u b a h a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r t e r s e b u t a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

T O T = P i - P2 A :

( 2 0 ) A2I

N i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n m e n u r u t w a k t u j i k a T O T < 0 , a t a u j i k a ( | A i | -IA2I)) / | A | < 0 . D a r i u r a i a n s e b e l u m n y a t e l a h d i b u k t i k a n b a h w a | A | > 0 D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , s y a r a t a g a r n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n a d a l a h | A i | - | A 2I < 0 . D a n p e r s a m a a n ( 1 7 ) d a n ( 1 8 ) a k a n d a p a t d i p e r o l e h h u b u n g a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t i n i :

3 Berbagai definisi dari nilai lukar dapal dibaca dalam Scandizco and Diakoswas, 1987 dan Reksasadharma. 1989

39


| A i | -IA2I = (E2y - E i y ) n - E2y T i + E i y T a

a t a u

| A i | -IA2I = E i y ( T 2 - n ) - E 2 y ( T i - n ) = E i y y 2 - E 2 y y i ( 2 1 b )

d i m a n a : y i = T i - n = P e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i p e r t a n i a n r e a l p e r k a p i t a y2 = T2 - n - P e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i n o n - p e r t a n i a n r e a l p e r

k a p i t a

J a d i . s y a r a t a g a r n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n a d a l a h | A i | ' - \ A2\ < 0 .

T O T < 0 < - > Eivy2 - E2yyi < 0 a t a u Eiyy2 < E2yyi

a t a u ( E 2 y - E i y ) n + E i y T 2 - E 2 y T i < 0

S e k i l a s m e m a n g t i d a k t a m p a k a p a k a h n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n a k a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n a t a u t i d a k . A r a h p e r u b a h a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t s a n g a t d i t e n t u k a n o l e h p e r b e d a a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n t e k n o l o g i , e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k k e d u a s e k t o r s e r t a l a j u p e r m i n t a a n p e n d u d u k . N a m u n , d a r i p e r s a m a a n ( 2 1 a ) - ( 2 1 b ) d a p a t l a h d i t a r i k b e b e r a p a k e s i m p u l a n u m u m s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

1 . N i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n s e m a k i n membaik a p a b i l a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k ( n ) s e m a k i n b e s a r ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 1 a ) .

2 . N i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n s e m a k i n membaik a p a b i l a l a j u p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n a k i b a t p e r b a i k a n t e k n o l o g i (T2) s e m a k i n b e s a r ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 1 a ) .

3 . N i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n s e m a k i n memburuk a p a b i l a l a j u p x / n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k i b a t p e r b a i k a n t e k n o l o g i ( T i ) s e m a k i n b e s a r ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 1 a )

4 . A p a b i l a l a j u p e r b a i k a n t e k n o l o g i d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n s a m a d e n g a n d i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n , m a k a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k a n c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n t e r u s s e l a m a l a j u p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i a k i b a t p e r b a i k a n t e k n o l o g i t e r s e b u t l e b i h t i n g g i d a r i p a d a l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k . D e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n , p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i p e r k a p i t a a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n ( p e r s a m a a n 2 1 b ) .

5 . P e r b a i k a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n h a n y a t e r j a d i j i k a l a j u p e r b a i k a n t e k n o l o g i d i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n j a u h l e b i h t i n g g i d a r i p a d a d i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n .

( 2 1 a )

4 0

I


A g a r l e b i h j e l a s m a r i i a h k i t a l i h a t p e r u b a h a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n i t u p a d a b e r b a g a i s k e n a r i o :

Skenario I

Perekonomian mengalami stagnasi, baik sektor pertanian maupun sektor non-pertanian tidak mengalami perubahan teknologi. Hal ini berarti bahwa T I = T 2 = 0

D e n g a n s k e n a r i o I i n i m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 1 a ) a k a n m e n j a d i : | A 1 | -| A 2 I = ( E 2 y - E l y ) n . O l e h k a r e n a e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k p e r t a n i a n l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p a d a u n t u k p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n , m a k a E 2 y > E i y ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n ( 1 0 ) . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a l a m k o n d i s i s k e n a r i o I nilai tukar barter sektor pertanian akan terus meningkat (membaik) selama penduduk mengalami pernimbuhan :

| A i | - I A 2 I = ( E 2 y - E i y ) n > 0 < - > T O T > 0 , k a r e n a

E 2 y > E l y d a n n > 0

P e r b a i k a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d a l a m s k e n a r i o I i n i d a p a t d i j e l a s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t . A p a b i l a p e r e k o n o m i a n m e n g a l a m i s t a g n a s i s e d a n g k a n p e n d u d u k t u m b u h t e r u s m a k a p e n d a p a t a n r i i l p e r k a p i t a m e n u r u n . O l e h k a r e n a e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n u n t u k p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p a d a u n t u k p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n , m a k a p e r m i n t a a n u n t u k p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n m e n u r u n l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p a d a p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n . A k i b a t n y a , h a r g a p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n m e n u r u n p a d a l e b i h c e p a t d a r i p a d a h a r g a p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n m e n g a l a m i p e r b a i k a n .

P e r l u k i r a n y a d i c a t a t b a h w a s k e n a r i o I t e r s e b u t j a r a n g s e k a l i t e r j a d i . P r o d u k s i d i s a l a h s a t u s e k t o r p e r e k o n o m i a n b i a s a n y a m e n g a l a m i p e r u b a h a n s c i r i n g d e n g a n u p a y a - u p a y a m e m b a n g u n d a n i n o v a s i t e k n o l o g i . S e k a r a n g m a r i i a h k i t a l i h a t s k e n a r i o b e r i k u t .

Skenario II

Perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan dan pembalian teknologi yang terjadi di kedua sektor perekonomian berjalan seimbang sehingga T I = T 2 = T > 0 . ^

D e n g a n k o n d i s i s e p e r t i p a d a s k e n a r i o I I i n i m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 1 ) a k a n b e r u b a h m e n j a d i :

41


| A i | - I A 2 I = ( E l y - E 2 y ) ( T - n )

D a r i p e r s a m a a n d i a t a s j e l a s l a h b a h w a p e r u b a h a n n i l a i t u k a r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n s a n g a t t e r g a n t u n g p a d a l a j u p r o d u k s i p e r k a p i t a . A p a b i l a p r o d u k s i p e r k a p i t a m e n g a l a m i k e n a i k a n , m a k a ( T - n ) > 0 , s e h i n g g a | A i | - I A 2 I < 0 k a r e n a ( E i y - E 2 y ) < 0 , y a n g b e r a r t i T O T < 0 .

D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a p a t l a h d i s i m p u l k a n b a h w a apabila perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan real per kapita dan dengan laju yang sama antarsektor, maka nilai tukar barter sektor pertanian akan mengalami penurunan (memburuk).

P e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n p a d a s k e n a r i o I I d a p a t d i j e l a s k a n s e b a g a i b e r i k u t . P e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r k a p i t a a k a n m e n y e b a b k a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e r m i n t a a n d i k e d u a s e k t o r . N a m u n p e n i n g k a t a n p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p a d a p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n , k a r e n a e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n n y a l e b i h b e s a r . D i s i s i l a i n , p e r u b a h a n p e n a w a r a n p a d a k e d u a s e k t o r s a m a . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e n i n g k a t a n p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k n o n - p e r t a n i a n y a n g l e b i h b e s a r m e n y e b a b k a n p e n i n g k a t a n h a r g a n y a r e l a t i f l e b i h b e s a r p u l a . I t u l a h s e b a b n y a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n ( m e m b u r u k ) .

Skenario III

Perekonomian mengalami pertumbuhan dan peningfatan produksi per kapita di sektor pertanian akibat perubahan teknologi lebih besar daripada peningkatan produksi per kapita sektor non pertanian. Hal itii berarti bahwa: T i - n = y i > 9 , y2 = T 2 - n > 0 d a n T 2 < T i .

A g a r d a p a t t e r l i h a t d e n g a n j e l a s , m i s a l k a n T 2 = ( 1 - t ) T i , t > 0 . P e r s a m a a n ( 2 1 a ) a k a n d a p a t d i t u l i s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

| A i | - I A 2 I = ( E l y - E 2 y ) y i - E i y T i

O l e h k a r e n a ( E i y - E 2 y ) < 0 . y i > 0 , E i y > 0 , T i < O m a k a | A i | -| A 2 I < 0

J a d i , a p a b i l a p r o d u k s i p e r k a p i t a p e r t a n i a n m e n i n g k a t m e l e b i h i l a j u p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i p e r k a p i t a d i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n , m a k a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n . D a l a m s k e n a r i o i n i p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r f i e r t a n i a n b e r j a l a n d a r i d u a s i s i y a n g s a l i n g m e m p e r k u a t :

4 2


1 . P e n a w a r a n p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n m e n i n g k a t l e b i h c e p a t s e h i n g g a c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n k a n h a r g a r e l a t i f n y a .

2 . P e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n m e n u r u n l e b i h c e p a t k a r e n a l e b i h e l a s t i s t e r h a d a p p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n , s e h i n g g a h a r g a r e l a t i f n y a j u g a c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n .

B e r d a s a r k a n h a s i l s k e n a r i o I I I d a p a t l a h d i k a t a k a n b a h w a u p a y a u n t u k m e m a c u p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i p e r t a n i a n c e n d e r u n g m e m p e r b u r u k n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t . H a l i n i t e n t u a k a n m e m p e r s u l i t p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n p e t a n i . D a p a t l a h d i k a t a k a n b a h w a p e m a c u a n p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i p e r t a n i a n t i d a k l a h c u k u p u n t u k m e n j a m i n p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n p e t a n i .

I I I . Temiian Empiris : Kasus Indonesia

S e t e l a h m e n g u r a i k a n n y a s e c a r a t e o r i t i s , s e k a r a n g m a r i i a h k i t a l i h a t s e c a r a e m p i r i s b a g a i m a n a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i m e m p e n g a r u h i n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . P e n g u j i a n e m p i r i s i n i d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n m e m p e r g u n a k a n r e g r e s i l i n e a r s e d e r h a n a . A d a p i i n m o d e l u j i y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t :

T O T ? = a + b ( G S P ) + c ( G S N P ) + d T ( 2 2 )

T O T P = N i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r h a d a p s e k t o r n o n p e r t a n i a n

G S P = L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n G S N P = L a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n T = T a h u n a , b , c , d = P a r a m e t e r

B e r d a s a r k a n p r a k i r a a n t e o r i t i s s e p e r t i y a n g t e l a h d i u r a i k a n s e b e l u m n y a , n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k a n b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f d e n g a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d a n b e r h u b u n g a n p o s i t i f d e n g a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n . H a l i n i b e r a r t i b a h w a n i l a i d u g a a n u n t u k p a r a m e t e r b & c p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 2 ) b e r t u r u t - t u r u t d i h a r a p k a n b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f d a n p o s i t i f . D i s a m p i n g i t u , s e c a r a t e o r i t i s j u g a t e l a h d i b u k t i k a n b a h w a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k a n m e n u r u n a p a b i l a s e k t o r p r o d u k s i p e r t a n i a n d a n n o n p e r t a n i a n m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n l a j u y a n g s a m a . I n i b e r a r t i b a h w a d u g a a n ( b + c ) h a r u s l a h b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f .

43


P e u b a h t a h u n ( T ) d i h a r a p k a n u n t u k n i e n a n g k a p f a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g s e c a r a s e k u l e r m e m p e n g a r u h i n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n y a n g t i d a k d i c a k u p o l e h p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m a u p u n s e k t o r n o n p e r t a n i a n . H i p o t e s i s b a h w a n i l a i t u k a r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m e n u r u n s e c a r a s e k u l e r ( S c a n d i z z o a n d D i a k o s w a s , 1 9 8 7 ) d a p a t d i u j i d a r i t a n d a k o e f i s i e n d u g a a n T , y a i t u h a r u s l a h b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f .

I n d e k s h a r g a y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n d a l a m p e n g u j i a n e m p i r i s i a l a h h a r g a i m p l i s i t P r o d u k s i D o m e s l i k B r u t o ( P B D ) y a n g d i d e f i n i s i k a n s e b a g a i P D B p a d a h a r g a y a n g b e r l a k u d i b a g i d e n g a n P D B p a d a h a r g a k o n s t a n 1 9 8 3 . P e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i d i u k u r s e b a g a i l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n P D B s e k t o r y a n g b e r s a n g k u t a n p a d a h a r g a k o n s t a n 1 9 8 3 . D a t a y a n g d i p e r g u n a k a n m e n c a k u p k e a d a a n s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 6 5 - 1 9 9 0 y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i B i r o P u s a t S t a t i s t i k .

H a s i l d u g a a n r e g r e s i p e r u b a h a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n , s u b s e k t o r t a n a m a n p a n g a n d a n s u b - s e k t o r p e r k e b u n a n d e n g a n s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n d a p a t d i l i h a t p a d a T a b e l 1 . M o d e l r e g r e s i t e r n y a t a c u k u p b a i k m e n j e l a s k a n v a r i a s i k e t i g a n i l a i t u k a r y a n g d i t e l i t i . S e b a g a i m a n a d i t u n j u k k a n o l e h k o e f i s i e n d e t e r m i n a s i ( R ^ ) d i a t a s 0 . 8 . S e l u r u h k o e f i s i e n d u g a a n p a l i n g t i d a k d e n g a n d u g a a n p e l u a n g 0 . 9 5 .

S e p e r t i p e r k i r a a n t e o r i t i s , a n a l i s i s e m p i r i s m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n b e r h u b u n g a n p o s i t i f d e n g a n l a j u

T a b e l 1 K o e f i s i e n d u g a a n R e g r e s i N i l a i T u k a r B a r t e r S e k t o r P e r t a n i a n d e n g a n S e k t o r N o n - P c r t a n i a n

Peutiah Sektor Pertanian Sub Sektor tanaman Pangan

Sub Sektor Perkebunan

Konslanta 1.8801 (15.037)

1.9214 • (16.627)

1.9750 (14.368)

Tahun 0.0364 (8 .119)

-0,0109 (7.919)

-0.0496 (4.623)

Perlumbuhan Sckloi Non-Peilanian

0.0167 (2.7.';5) •

0.0175 (2.509)

0.0412 (4.623)

Perlumbuhan Seklor Pertanian

-0.0343 (2.803)

Pertumbuhan Sub sektor tanaman pangan

-0.03184 (2.903)

Pertumbuhan Sub sektor perkebunan

-0.0037 (0.318)

Koefisien determinasi (R2)

0.8283 0.8019 0.8307

Keterangan: angka dalam tanda kurung adalah statistik t

4 4


T a b e l 2 K o e f i s i e n D u g a a n R e g r e s i N i l a i T u k a r B a r t e r S e k t o r P e r t a n i a n d e n g a n S e k t o r I n d u s t r i P e n g o l a h a n

Peubah Seklor Pertanian

Konslanta 1.3352 (25.624)

Tahun -0.0078 (-2.783)

Pertumbuhan Sektor Industri Pengolahan 0.0007 (0.292)

Perlumbuhan Sektor Pertanian -0.0376 (-4.627)

Koefisien Determinasi (R2) 0.6112

Keterangan: Angka dalam Tanda Kurung adalah Statistik T

p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n d a n b e r h u b u n g a n n e g a t i f d e n g a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k s i s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . P e r u b a h a n s t r u k t u r p e r e k o n o m i a n y a n g m e n g a r a h k e p e n i n g k a t a n p a n g s a s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n d a l a m G D P ( y a n g b e r a r t i p e r t u m b u h a n s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n l e b i h p e s a t d a r i p a d a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n ) a k a n d a p a t m e n g e r e m p e n u r u n a n s e k u l e r n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . K o e f i s i e n d u g a a n p e u b a h l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n s e k t o r i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a h a n d a l a m m o d e l r e g r e s i u n t u k n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r h a d a p s e k t o r i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a h a n p a d a T a b e l 2 j u g a m e n d u k u n g p e n d a p a t i n i . D i s a m p i n g i t u , n i l a i k o e f i s i e n y a n g k e c i l d a n t i d a k n y a t a s e c a r a s t a t i s t i k u n t u k p e u b a h l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n s e k t o r i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a h a n m e r u p a k a n i n d i k a s i b a h w a k a l i a n a n t a r a s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n d e n g a n i n d u s t r i p e n g o l a h a n s a n g a t r e n d a h . A t a u d e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n s e k t o r a g r o - i n d u s t r i b e l u m b e r k e m b a n g d e n g a n b a i k .

P e n c e g a h a n p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n i n i a k a n l e b i h b e r h a s i l l a g i a p a b i l a y a n g b e r k e m b a n g l e b i h p e s a t a d a l a h s u b s e k t o r a g r o - i n d u s t r i . A g r o - i n d u s t r i a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n m e l a l u i p e r b a i k a n m u t u d a n d i v e r s i f i k a s i p r o d u k . D i s a m p i n g i t u , p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n o l a h a n j u g a m e m p u n y a i e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p e n d a p a t a n y a n g l e b i h b e s a r d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n p r i m e r . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n , p e r k e m b a n g a n a g r o - i n d u s t r i a k a n d a p a t m c n c e g a h t e n d e n s i p e n u r u n a n , a t a u b a h k a n d a p a t m e n i n g k a t k a n , p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n , w a l a u p u n p e r e k o n o m i a n m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m b u h a n pesa t .

T a b e l 1 j u g a m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a k o e f i s i e n d u g a a n p e u b a h t a h u n s e l u r u h n y a b e r t a n d a n e g a t i f . H a l i n i m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n s e c a r a s e k u l e r . N i l a i t u k a r s e k t o r

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T a b e l 3 E l a s t i s i t a s P e n g e l u a r a n u n t u k K o m o d i t i B e r a s d i I n d o n e s i a pada T a h u n 1 9 7 6 d a n 1 9 8 7 '

Lokasi Th 1976- Tahun 1987-' Kecenderungan

Double Log Semi Log (- : Turun) Log Inverse (+ : naik)

Desa 0.69 0.33 0.29 0.34

Kota 0.27 0.05 0.04 0.04

Indonesia 0.5.3 0.25 0.19 0.27

Keterangan: ^ Fao (1991), D e m a i u i Prospects for Rice and O i l i e r F o o d G r a i n s i n Selected Countries ~ Timer & Adelman (1979). dengan menggunakan data S U S E N A S tahun 1976 dan model Log Linear

F A O , dengan menggunakan data S U S L N A S 1987

p e r t a n i a n t e t a p m e n u r u n w a l a u p u n s e l u r u h s e k t o r d a l a m p e r e k o n o m i a n m e n g a l a m i s t a g n a s i ( t i d a k m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m b u h a n ) . D e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n , p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m e r u p a k a n s u a t u f e n o m e n a a l a m i a h k a l a u t i d a k a d a u p a y a u n t u k m e n c e g a h n y a . K e c e n d e r u n g a n n i l a i t u k a r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n u n t u k m e n u r u n s e c a r a s e k u l e r d a p a t d i s e b a b k a n o l e h b e r b a g a i h a l s e p e r t i p e n u r u n a n k e k u a t a n t a w a r m e n a w a r p e t a n i d a n p e n u r u n a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k - p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n s e i r i n g d e n g a n p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n r e a l , p e n i n g k a t a n u r b a n i s a s i d a n p e r u b a h a n s c l e r a .

F a k t a p a d a T a b e l 3 m e n u n j u k k a n t e r j a d i n y a p e n u r u n a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n g e l u a r a n ( p e n d e k a t a n K o e f i s i e n D e t e r m i n a s i ( R 2 ) u n t u k e l a s t i s i t a s p e n d a p a t a n ) u n t u k p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n , b e r a s , d i I n d o n e s i a s e l a m a m a s a p e m b a n g u n a n e k o n o m i . E l a s t i s i t a s p e n g e l u a r a n t e r s e b u t c e n d e r u n g t u r u n d a r i t a h u n k e t a h u n s e i r i n g d e n g a n m e n i n g k a t n y a p e n d a p a t a n r e a l p e n d u d u k d e s a d a n k o t a . S e l a i n i t u , p e r b e d a a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e n g e l u a r a n a n t a r a d e s a d e n g a n k o t a j u g a c e n d e r u n g s e m a k i n b e s a r , s e h i n g g a p e r p i n d a h a n p e n d u d u k d a r i d e s a k e k o t a a k a n s e c a r a n y a t a m e n g u r a n g i p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p k o m o d i t i b e r a s . O l e h s e b a b i t u s e i r i n g d e n g a n p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n r e a l p e n d u d u k I n d o n e s i a d a n l a j u u r b a n i s a s i s e l a m a k u r u n w a k t u t e r s e b u t , m a k a d a p a t d i p a s t i k a n b a h w a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r k o m o d i t i b e r a s t e l a h m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n . I n i m e r u p a k a n s a l a h s a t u c o n t o h y a n g m e n d u k u n g p e n d a p a t t e r j a d i n y a p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n s e c a r a s e k u l e r .

IV. Kesimpulan

D a l a m t u l i s a n i n i t e l a h b e r h a s i l d i t u n j u k k a n s e c a r a t e o r i t i s b a h w a n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n s e i r i n g d e n g a n

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p e n i n g k a t a n l a j u p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , k a r e n a p e r m i n t a a n t e r h a d a p p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t t i d a k e l a s t i s . B a h k a n e l a s t i s i t a s p e r m i n t a a n p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n c e n d e r u n g m e n u r u n a p a b i l a p e n d a p a t a n r i i l p e r k a p i t a m e n g a l a m i p e n i n g k a t a n , s e h i n g g a l a j u p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t j u g a s e m a k i n c e p a t d a r i t a h u n k e t a h u n . D e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n , p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n i t u m e r u p a k a n s u a t u f e n o m e n a a l a m i a h y a n g a k a n t e r j a d i s e c a r a o t o m a t i s d a l a m s u a t u p e r e k o n o m i a n y a n g m e n g a l a m i p e r t u m b u h a n .

F a k t o r - f a k t o r y a n g d a p a t m e m p e r b u r u k p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u t d i a n t a r a n y a a d a l a h :

1 . p e r u b a h a n s t r u k t u r e k o n o m i y a n g d i s e b a b k a n o l e h p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g b i a s k e s e k t o r n o n - p e r t a n i a n ;

2 . p e m b a n g u n a n a g r o - i n d u s t r i b e r j a l a n l a m b a t ;

3 . k e m a j u a n t e k n o l o g i p e r t a n i a n y a n g d a p a t m e n d o r o n g p e n i n g k a t a n p r o d u k s i d e n g a n p u s a t ;

4 . p e r u b a h a n s t r u k t u r pasar,^ d i m a n a k e k u a t a n t a w a r - m e n a w a r p e t a n p e n j u a l p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n s e m a k i n m e n u r u n r e l a t i f t e r h a d a p e m b e l i n y a ;

5 . k e b i j a k a n p e m e r i n t a h y a n g b i s a m e l i n d u n g i k o n s u m e i p r o d u k - p r o d u k p e r t a n i a n ;

6 . p e r u b a h a n s t r u k t u r d e m o g r a f i d i m a n a p e n d u d u k p e r k o t a a i s e m a k i n b a n y a k a k i b a t u r b a n i s a s i ;

H a s i l p e n g u j i a n e m p i r i s d e n g a n m e m p e r g u n a k a n d a t a I n d o n e s i t e r n y a t a m e n d u k u n g s e m u a k e s i m p u l a n t e o r i t i s . O l e h k a r e n a i t u , k e r a n g k k a n a l i s i s d a n k e s i m p u l a n t e o r i t i s y a n g d i u r a i k a n d a l a m t u l i s a n i n i d a p t t d i p a k a i s e b a g a i a c u a n d a l a m p e n y u s u n a n k e b i j a k a n p e m b a n g u n a n m a u p u i u n t u k m e m p e r k i r a k a n d i n a m i k a d a r i n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n c i I n d o n e s i a .

D a l a m u p a y a m e n i n g k a t k a n p e n d a p a t a n p e t a n i , p e m e r i n t a h a r u s l a h t u r u n t a n g a n m c n c e g a h a t a u , p a l i n g l i d a k , m e m p e r l a m b t p e n u r u n a n s e k u l e r n i l a i t u k a r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n . S a l a h s a t u c a r a y a n l g d i p a n d a n g p a l i n g t e p a t u n t u k i t u i a l a h d e n g a n m e n g e m b a n g k a n a g r o - i n d u s t r i y a n g t e r k a i t e r a t d e n g a n s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n t e r s e b u P e m b a n g u n a n e k o n o m i m e l a l u i i n d u s t r i a l i s a s i y a n g t i d a k t e r k a i t e r i t d e n g a n s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n a k a n s e m a k i n m e m p e r e e p a t p e n u r u n a n n i l a i t u k i r b a r t e r s e k t o r p e r t a n i a n m y a n g b e r a r t i j u g a a k a n s e m a k i n m e m p e r l a m b i t p e n i n g k a t a n p e n d a p a t a n p e t a n i .

'\1


D A F T A R P U S T A K A

A n d e r s o n , K . 1 9 8 7 . " O n W h y A g r i c u l t u r e D e c l i n e s w i t h E c o n o m i c G r o w t h " .AgriculturalEconomics 1 : 1 9 5 - 2 0 7

D a r , A . K . 1 9 6 8 . " D o m e s t i c T e r m s o f T r a d e a n d E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t o f I n d i a " . Cornell International Agricultural Development Bulletin. No. n.

H e n d e r s o n , J . H . a n d K . E . Q u a n d t . 1 9 8 0 . " M i c r o e c o n o m i c T h e o r y : A M a t h e m a t i c a l A p p r o a c h " . M c G r a w - H i l l B o o k C o m p a n y .

J a c k s o n , B . 1 9 7 9 . " I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f C o s t P r i c e R a t i o s " . Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics. 4 7 ( 2 ) : 1 0 7 - 1 1 7

R e k s a s u d h a r m a , C . 1 9 8 9 . " S i s t e m P e n g u k u r a n N i l a i T u k a r P e r t a n i a n S u b S e k t o r T a n a m a n P a n g a n " . Jurnal Ekonomi Analisis Ilmiali FE-UKI l ( 3 ) : l - 2 3

S c a n d i z z o , P . L . a n d D . D i a k o s w a s . 1 9 8 7 . " I n s t a b i l i t y i n t h e T e r m s o f T r a d e o f P r i m a r y C o m m o d i t i e s , 1 9 9 0 - 1 9 9 2 ". FAO Economic and Social Development Paper N o . 6 4 .

S i m a t u p a n g , P . 1 9 9 2 . " P e r t a m b a h a n E k o n o m i d a n N i l a i T u k a r S e k t o r P e r t a n i a n " . P u s a t P e n e l i t i a n S o s i a l E k o n o m i P e r t a n i a n , B o g o r

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