Peak Oil and China haze

Yingchao Chena , Lianyong Feng

a, Jianliang Wanga, Ke Wang

a, Xiaowen Ao

a, Pei

Hea, Jingxuan Feng

a, Willam X. Wei

b

aSchool of Business Administration, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China

bGrant MacEwan University, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada

Abstract: The outbreaks of haze in most cities of China is mainly due to the excessive

consumption of coal and oil, while the changing of coal and oil recent years have driven partly by

the approaching peak of China conventional crude oil. We used a generalized Weng model to

predict the peak of China conventional crude oil and summarized some literature related, we

found the production of China conventional crude oil has been in the peak period and the peak oil

of China is approaching. The implicit impacts of peak oil on China haze mainly include two parts:

(1) the domestic oil supply is shortage and China’s oil import is limited in part, this has stimulated

the rapid growth of coal consumption to some extent; (2) China’s oil import grows swift but poor

quality oil accounts for a large proportion, meanwhile, China has produced more poor quality

crude oil, that is to say, China has consumed much more poor quality oil. China haze is just one of

the impacts of peak conventional oil, the economic growth, net energy for society and carbon

emission maybe worse and worse in the near future.

Keywords: China; Peak oil; Haze; Weng model.

1. Introduction

Serious haze has appeared in China since the beginning of 2013, which almost normalization

[1], affecting the public life, environment and economic activity [2].The main component of haze

is the aerosol which is consisted of minerals, sulfate, organic carbon, nitrate, ammonium and

elemental carbon [3]. From the composition point of view, the outbreaks of haze in most cities of

China recent years is mainly due to the excessive consumption of coal and oil [4, 5, 6].

The haze in Britain was caused by the excessive consumption of coal [7] and the haze in Los

Corresponding author.Tel.: +86 13911236801 E-mail address: fenglyenergy@163.com(L.Feng).

Angeles was mainly due to the large auto emissions [8], but we cannot stop at the surface when

analyzing the causes. The Britain haze appeared in the industrial revolution era. Stimulated by the

rapid development of the economy, the energy demand soared. This eventually led the excessive

consumption of coal which was the main energy resource. The Los Angeles haze happened in the

times of Pacific War, so many people and plants appeared in a short term. With 2.5 million cars at

the time, Los Angeles consumed about 11 million tons gasoline per day. In addition, there are

many emission sources such as refinery plant and oil supply station. The development of

automobile industry consumed so much petroleum, which eventually result in the haze. So what’s

the background and the deep-rooted causes of China haze? From oil age point of view, we tried to

find the implicit impacts of peak oil on China haze. Furthermore, we tried to reveal the possible

influence of peak oil on China.

2. Peak oil of China

Peak oil was proposed by Hubbert in 1949. He thought “the production curve of any given

species of fossil fuel will rise, pass through one or several maxima, and then decline

asymptotically to zero” [9], that is “Bell curve law”. The essence of peak oil theory is the

production of non-renewable energy cannot grow without restriction, but affected by resource

constraints, in a moment, the production reaches maxima and cannot continue to grow or decline.

In 1956, Hubbert predicted the 48 states of America successfully using the theory [10]. From then

on, more and more researchers have begun to study peak oil.

The production of crude oil in China showed a trend of rapid growth before 1979, but after

1979, the growth rate has slowed down significantly although the production continued to

maintain a growth trend as a whole, as shown in fig. 1, the production transformed from

exponential growth to linear growth after 1979. From the perspective of growth rate, the average

annual growth rate has almost been flat and close to 0, as shown in fig. 1. The important reason for

this phenomenon is that the oil production of China has been limited by the resource. In this case,

peak oil of China maybe earlier than we expected.

Fig. 1 The crude oil production and annual growth rate of China.

Date is from National Bureau of Statistics of China [11].

In view of some scholars have point out that predicting the peak oil of China with the

Generalized Weng model is relatively scientific, rational and suited to realities in China [12, 13,

14], we predict the peak conventional crude oil of China with it.

Historical crude oil production date is from China Energy Statistical Yearbook [15, 16, 17, 18,

19, 20], but we remove the date of heavy oil (including extra-heavy oil) and shale oil. Because the

production of heavy oil (including extra-heavy oil) is relatively large and complete and the shale

oil date is relatively complete while the production of oil sands and tight oil is very small and the

date is incomplete. The date heavy oil (including extra-heavy oil) production is from some

literature [21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26], and the production of 2006-2011 is calculated according a

certain proportion. The date of shale oil is from some literature [27, 28, 29, 30, 31] too, and the

production of 2007-2008 is calculated according a certain proportion.

China’s oil companies and science academies have published four official assessments of

URR for oil: 15Gt [32], 15Gt [33], 21.2Gt [34], 23.3Gt [35]. The URR results of the four official

assessments tend to increase over time. Whether this is due to a real increase or due to different

methods for assessing reserves is not clear. Therefore, we gave three scenarios of URR: High

scenario-URR=23.3Gt; Low scenario-URR=15Gt; Reference scenario-URR=19.15Gt (the average

of high scenario and low scenario).

The result of predict is show in Fig. 2 and Tab. 1:

Fig. 2 Forecasted result of China’s conventional crude oil production with three scenarios.

Tab.1 The peak year and peak production of the three forecasted result

Scenario Peak year Peak production (Mt)

Low scenario 2013 164.95

Reference scenario 2021 183.11

High scenario 2028 200.62

The forecasted results of three scenarios are quite different, but we can find that the

production of China conventional crude oil has been in the peak period.

There are many literatures about the peak oil of China, for example, Feng thought the peak

year was 2011 and the peak production was 197.76 Mt [12]; Zhao thought the peak year was 2017

and the peak production was 185.38 Mt [13]; Tao thought the peak year was 2019-2022 and the

peak production was 199.5-228.0 Mt [36]; Hu thought the peak year was 2020 and the peak

production was 205 Mt [37].

In total, we came to the conclusion from the forecasted results in this paper and the current

literatures: the production of China conventional crude oil has been in the peak period and peak

conventional crude oil of China is approaching.

3. The implicit impacts of peak oil on China haze

The emergence of haze is an ongoing process of accumulation of emissions coming from

fossil fuel consumption. The endowments of China’s fossil energy resource determine that China

is “short of oil, less of gas and rich in coal” [38]. It’s in the last two years that China haze outbreak,

so the cause of China haze is not the big energy background but the changing of fossil energy

consumption recent years. Of course, the main cause of China haze is the increasing absolute

amount of fossil energy consumption, but we cannot ignore the implicit impacts of peak oil on the

changing of China fossil energy consumption: (1) The peak oil has stimulated the rapid growth of

coal consumption to some extent; (2) The peak oil results in that China has consumed much more

poor quality oil.

3.1 The peak oil stimulates the coal consumption to some extent

The World Bank date shows that the GDP growth rate of China gradually rises after China’s

accession to WTO in December 2001, even in 2009, the China’s GDP has maintained a growth

rate of 9.20% [39]. The energy demand in China grows quickly with the rapidly development of

enonomy. BP statistics shows that the average annual growth rate of primary energy consumption

in China is 9.45% during 2002-2012 while 3.91% during 1991-2001 [40], that is to say, energy

consumption rate in China has increased by 1.42 times.

It is worth nothing that the growth rate of coal is outstanding among all of the energy

consumption growth. As shown in Fig. 3, the average annual growth rate of coal consumption is

9.46% during 2002-2012 while 2.84% during 1991-2001, the coal consumption reaching 1.87

billion toe in 2012 is 2.7 times of that in 2001. Besides, the ratio of China’s coal consumption

accounts for the world’s has increased from 29.46% in 2001 to 50.22% in 2012 [40].

Fig.3 The changing of primary energy consumption in China.

Date is from BP statistics [40].

Admittedly, coal consumption surged mainly due to the rapid increasing energy demand, but

if we analyze further, we can find that the increasing coal consumption in China has been driven

by peak oil partly.

What can meet the huge energy needs of China effectively in near-time are only coal and oil.

Oil is more efficient and cleaner than coal. The calorific value of oil is 1.58-3.55 times of coal

while carbon emission factor is only 72.46%-74.64% of coal [41]. China became a net oil importer

in 1993, and from then on, as shown in Fig. 4, the net oil imports of China has kept an average

annual growth ratio of 29.27%, and the oil external dependency reaches 58.98% in 2013. But the

average annual growth rate of oil consumption has been almost unchanged, as shown in Fig. 3,

7.06% during 2002-2012 while 6.62% during 1991-2001, rising only 0.44%. The analysis above

maybe reveals a fact that China needs much more oil than they have consumed and China’s oil

imports may be limited partly.

In fact, although China’s oil imports accounts for only 13.63% of world’s total trade in 2013

[40], EIA date [38] shows that the growth amount of China’s crude oil net imports from 2001 to

2010 accounts for 96.52% of the growth amount of world’s total crude oil trade and BP statistics

date [40, 42] shows the ratio of 2001-2013 is 114.41%, furthermore, the growth amount of China’s

oil imports from 2001 to 2013 accounts for 47.05% of the growth amount of world’s total oil trade

[40]. The growth part of world’s oil (crude oil) trade mainly exports to China, especially crude oil.

Besides, the oil price has increased rapidly after 2002, as shown in Fig. 4, but the oil imports

amount and its growth rate show that China’s net oil import was little affected by the increasing

oil price. That is to say China has bought oil from the world without thinking about the price and

the important is China has bought almost all of the growth part of world’s crude oil during

2001-2013. The analysis above confirms the truth: China needs much more oil than they have

consumed and China’s oil import has been limited partly.

Fig. 4 The oil consumption and production in China and the trend of Brent oil price.

Date is from BP statistics [40]

Under the background of that coal and oil are the only two options for meeting the huge

energy demand in near-time, the peak conventional crude oil is approaching and China’s oil

import is limited, so this stimulates the increasing coal consumption. Although the surging coal

consumption in China is not mainly resulting from peak oil, we should recognize that the

approaching of peak conventional crude oil has stimulated the coal consumption in China.

3.2 The peak oil results in China consuming much more poor quality oil.

The oil China has consumed comes from two parts: (1) The domestic production; (2) The

imports. With the approaching of conventional crude oil, China has produced more poor quality

oil than before, at the same time, the oil imported mainly came from the country whose oil quality

is poor and some oil imported affected by the development of unconventional oil.

The oil quality standard is from “World Oil and Gas Review 2013” [43], API level equal to or

greater than 10° and less than 26° and sulphur content equal to or greater than 1% are both poor

quality oil. Consuming poor quality oil means more emissions (such as sulfur dioxide) which is

related to the formation of haze directly.

The sulphur crude oil produced in China accounts for a small proportion of the total, as

shown in Tab. 2, the ratio is about 1% but increasing. The heavy crude oil produced in China has

increased from 110 thousand barrels per day in 1995 to 712 thousand barrels per day and the ratio

heavy oil accounts for total crude oil has increased form 3.68% to 17.21% as well, as shown in

Tab. 2. In addition, some literatures also show that the production of heavy oil (including

extra-heavy) has increase from 14.31 million tons in 2005 to 23.93 million tons in 2012 [44, 45].

In total, China has produced much more poor quality crude oil than before.

Tab. 2 The production of poor quality crude oil in China from 1995 to 2012.

Year

Heavy Sour

Production

(Thousand barrels per day)

Ratio

(%)

Production

(Thousand barrels per day) Ratio (%)

1995 110 3.68 17 0.57

2000 267 8.21 17 0.52

2005 463 12.76 19 0.52

2010 773 18.87 53 1.29

2012 712 17.21 53 1.28

Date is from “World Oil and Gas Review 2013” [43]

The quality of crude oil imported is poor, as shown in Tab. 3. Generally, the crude oil quality

in a country changes little, so we estimated that the poor quality crude oil accounts for about 60%

of the accumulation crude oil imported during 2000-2013. Besides, the growth of crude oil

imported mainly came from countries whose crude oil quality is poor, we estimated that the poor

quality crude oil accounts for about 70% of the growth crude oil imported during 2000-2013.

Tab. 3 The crude oil imported of China during 2000-2013.

Country

Cumulative imports Growth of imports Ratio of poor

quality (%)

Amount (Ten

thousand tons)

Ratio

(%)

Import Growth (Ten

thousand tons)

Ratio

(%) 2012 2000

Saudi Arabia 41172.56 18.08 4816.88 22.73 97.22 97.49

Angola 32312.96 14.19 3137.67 14.81 16.20 8.19

Iran 24268.41 10.66 1444.07 6.82 100.00 100.00

Oman 20047.12 8.80 982.10 4.64 100.00 100.00

Russia 17502.45 7.69 2296.90 10.84 90.57 97.64

Sudan 10176.61 4.47 -- -- 8.85 0.00

Iraq 8226.04 3.61 2033.06 9.60 100.00 100

Venezuela 7292.39 3.20 1574.78 7.43 100.00 83.21

Kazakhstan 7145.85 3.09 1125.64 5.31 0.00 0.00

Kuwait 6539.95 2.87 891.35 4.21 100.00 100.00

Congo 5864.41 2.58 562.36 2.65% 0.00 0.00

Yemen 5467.89 2.40 -- -- 0.00 0.00

United Arab 5147.57 2.26 984.53 4.65 46.81 50.27

Brazil 4095.90 1.80 501.30 2.37% 72.44 72.12

Date is from some literature [43, 46, 47, 48, 49].

Driven by peak oil of the world, unconventional oil has been developed rapidly [50]. The

production of extra-heavy crude oil in Venezuela has increased from 0.16 million barrels per day

in 2000 to 0.81 million barrels per day at an annual speed of 15.9% [51]. At the same time, the

crude oil imported from Venezuela has increased from 55.6 thousand tons in 2001 to 15.75 million

tons in 2012 [46, 48, 52]. Although not all of the crude oil imported from Venezuela is extra-heavy

crude oil, the rapid development of extra-heavy crude oil in Venezuela and the increasing crude oil

imported from Venezuela largely reflect that the crude oil quality consumed in China is declining.

4. The impacts of peak oil are more than China haze.

Throughout the major oil-consuming countries and regions of the world, the rapid

development of shale resource in American has greatly eased its oil supply shortage state [53, 54,

55]; Europe is transforming to low-carbon society [56], the oil consumption has declined

significantly since the conventional crude oil in 2006 [40, 57]; The oil consumption in Japan is

small relatively [40]. The oil dependency in those countries and regions has dropped or low

relatively, this has eased the impacts of peak oil. On the contrary, energy intensive industries in

China and India, especially in China, have developed rapidly [58]. With the rapidly increasing oil

consumption in China, the oil dependency is higher and higher [59]. The impacts of peak oil are

more than China haze, as shown in the following:

(1) Economy of China is affected by the oil price severely.

IEA predicted that, in the new policy scenario, the oil demand in China during 2011-2035

will increase at an annual ratio of 2.20% while the production will decline at an annual ratio of

1.70%, and the oil imported will increase from 4.9 million barrels per day in 2011 to 12.3 million

barrels per day in 2035, the oil external dependency of China will reach 82% in 2035 [59].

The huge oil imported and high oil external dependency make the economy of China subject

to the international oil price. There exists a significant unidirectional Granger-Causality from

change rate of international oil prices to inflation rate of China, but no significant unidirectional

Granger-Causality from inflation rate of China to change rate of international oil prices, China can

only accept changes in the international oil prices passively and have no say in international oil

prices [60]. If international oil prices rose 10 dollar per barrel, the price index rose 0.46%, real

GDP reduced 0.53%; the real disposable income of rural residents and urban residents reduced

0.78% and 1.16%, the consumer spending of rural residents and urban residents reduced 0.33%

and 0.72%, respectively [61]. World crude oil prices rose by 1% would result in 0.188% decline in

GNP [62]. According to the Supply Shocks theory of Rasch and Tatom [63], Barro [64], Brown

and Yucel [65] and the Income Transfer theory of Fried and Schulze [66], the rise in world oil

price will lower the importers’ demand for Chinese export products and improve the production

cost of domestic goods in China, which reduces the competitiveness of China’s export products; In

addition, textile industry, light industry, agricultural and sideline products and processing trade

which are labour-intensive industries are the main export products of China. The profit margins of

those industries is small and the risk-resisting ability is week, in that case, export profits and trade

surplus decline because of the increasing production cost and transportation cost driven by high oil

price.

(2) EROI of oil and gas industry in China declines.

EROI (Energy Return on Investment) is a method to calculate the energy returned to the

economy and society compared to the energy required to obtain that energy [67, 68]. The

declining EROI of oil and gas industry is one of impacts of peak conventional oil in China. There

is a certain dependency between the peak EROI of oil and peak production of oil [69], peak

production of oil occurs earlier than the peak net energy [70]. In terms of fossil energy resources,

it is net energy that has the real significance [70], while EROI is the method measuring net energy.

The EROI of production of crude oil and natural gas for the Daqing oil field, the largest oil

field in China, was 10:1 in 2001 but has declined to 6.5:1 in 2009, and will decline to 4.7:1 in

2015 [71]. China’s oil and natural gas extraction declined from a maximum value of 14:1 in 1996

to 10:1 in 2010, an annual rate of decline of 2.6%, and the average EROI will be about 10:1 in

2015, 9:1 in 2020 [37].

The value of EROI of China’s oil and gas industry has been declining [37] and this decline is

irreversible [72]. The most direct impact of the declining EROI is that the energy consumed in

production process increases and the net energy for economic system decreases, which means the

net energy from the production of oil and gas in China is declining. The sustained and stable

economic growth requires the security of energy supply, otherwise it will inevitably lead to

restrictions and limitations on economic growth [73]. The impact of declining EROI of oil and gas

in China on economic growth cannot be ignored [74]. The economic growth rate of China will be

5.71% and 3.66% during the Thirteenth Five-year Plan and Fourteenth Five-year Plan period

because of the declining EROI, which means China’s economic growth will break down [73]. In

addition, the declining EROI also means that the transformation ability for products and service of

per unit thermal equivalent of oil and gas falls. The declining EROI of oil and gas will worsen the

energy consumption in China.

(3) The carbon emission problem will be more prominent.

The average annual growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil energy consumption

was 9.18% during 2002-2012 while 3.51% during 1991-2001, as shown in Fig. 5, the growth rate

has changed a lot after 2002. China has been the country emitting more carbon than any other

country.

Fig. 5 The carbon dioxide from fossil energy consumption of main counties and regions

Date is from BP Statistics [40]

The application of EOR (Enhanced Oil Recovery) and the development of coal-to-liquids and

unconventional oil are the main measures for improving the oil production in China. The EOR has

been applied in many oilfields in China [75], the oil increment results from EOR was 12 million

tons in 1995 while 30 million tons in 2010 [76, 77]; The coal-to-liquids industry has developed

rapidly recently, coal-to-liquids capacity is expanding and reached1.6 MT/year in2009, Capacity is

forecast to reach12 MT/year in2015, 50 MT/year in 2020, and expand further after 2020 [78]. In

terms of the unconventional oil production in China, shale oil was 755 thousand tons in 2011 [30],

oil sands oil was 500 thousand tons in 2010 [79], heavy oil (including extra-heavy oil) was 23.93

million tons in 2012 [21], and tight oil will reach 1-2 million tons in 2015 [80]. Besides, with the

increase of oil imports, China will consume much more unconventional oil in the future because

of the development of unconventional oil. The carbon emission factor of different kinds of oil is

shown in Fig. 6, and it is easy to find that the conventional oil is much cleaner than others. In this

case, the carbon emission problem will be more prominent in China.

Fig.6 The carbon emission factor of different kinds of oil.

Date is from Brandt et al. [81] and IPCC [41].

5. Conclusion

The conclusions of this paper are shown blew:

(1) We used a generalized Weng model to predict the peak of China conventional crude oil

and summarized some literature related, we found the production of China conventional crude oil

has been in the peak period and the peak oil of China is approaching.

(2) China haze was caused by the worsening fossil energy consumption recent years. The

worsening fossil energy consumption is affected largely by the approaching of peak conventional

crude oil in China. The implicit impacts of peak oil on China haze mainly include two parts: 1>

peak conventional crude oil has stimulated the rapid growth of coal consumption to some extent; 2>

China has consumed much more poor quality oil.

(3) The impacts of peak oil are more than China haze. The economic growth of China will be

affected by the changing oil price, the declining in EROI of oil and gas will worsen the energy

consumption and limit the economic growth, and the carbon emission problem will be more

prominent in the future.

In total, the approaching of peak conventional crude oil worsens the energy consumption,

which leads to the outbreak of China haze. But the impacts of peak oil are more than China haze.

China should take peak oil into consideration before establishing and adjusting the energy

strategy.

Acknowledgements

This research has been supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.

71373285). We wish to thank the anonymous reviewers and editor for their helpful suggestions.

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