Peace River Cumulative Impact Study
Transcript of Peace River Cumulative Impact Study
Peace River Cumulative Impact Study
DEP Bureauof Mine Restoration.
SubconsultantsSubconsultants
• HydroGeoLogic
• The Nature Conservancy (Brian Richter)
• EarthBalance
• Longman, Lewis & Walker, P.A.
• Avineon
• W. Dexter Bender (Tom Fraser)
OverviewOverview
• Project Background
• Key Watershed Stressors
• Project Approach
• CHNEP Involvement
Project BackgroundProject Background
• Study mandated in 2003 by the Florida Legislature
• Objective - assess the cumulative impactsof changes in landform and hydrology in the Peace River basin prior to DEP’s development of a Watershed Management Plan
• Plan Goals - enhance and protect the hydrology and ecology of the Peace River watershed– Recovery of baseflows and more natural
hydrology– Preservation and restoration of in-stream and
floodplain habitats
Primary Project ObjectivesPrimary Project Objectives
1. Conduct a thorough analysis of relevant available data and previous work
2. Use analytical tools to characterize status and trends in important watershed parameters
3. Qualify and quantify where possible the relative effects of key watershed stressors
4. Develop recommendations for improved regulatory framework
Analytical ApproachAnalytical Approach
Causative Effects(Flows, Water Quality,
Habitat)Level of
Uncertainty
Time SeriesTemporal / Spatial
Metrics ofChange
MultivariateAnalyses
Water BudgetUncertainty
ManagementAlternatives
DEP Watershed
ManagementPlan
Unique Basin CharacteristicsUnique Basin Characteristics
• Bone Valley Formation• Phosphate Mining
– Loss of large areas on contributing watershed
– Loss of streambed and floodplain habitat
– Reduction in recharge potential– Clay settling ponds and gypsum
stacks• Water quality degradation from spills• Increased losses from ET
Unique Basin CharacteristicsUnique Basin Characteristics
• Water quality characteristic– High natural P concentrations– Increasing Si and K concentrations
• Historic artesian springs• Headwater flow diversions due to
urbanization• Increasing and more intense
agricultural land uses– Rangeland converted to citrus and row
crops– Agricultural runoff to tributaries
Unique Basin CharacteristicsUnique Basin Characteristics
• Reductions in domestic wastewater discharges
• Reductions in mining discharges• Major potable water source for
large and growing population (PRMRWSA)
• Southern-half of the basin is the least impacted area of watershed
• Charlotte Harbor Estuary
Key Watershed StressorsKey Watershed Stressors
• Phosphate Mining– Direct habitat loss– Loss of contributing drainage area– Reduction in recharge potential
• Agriculture– Increases in baseflow to tributaries– Water quality changes
• Urbanization– Increases impervious surface– Increased pollutant loads
• Groundwater Withdrawals– Combined consumptive uses
• Long-Term Variation in Rainfall
Peace River1999 Land Use
Basin CharacteristicsBasin Characteristics
Phosphate Mining up to 1950Phosphate Mining up to 1950
.-, 4
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LAKELAND
PLANTCITY
BARTOW
FORT MEADE
PIERCE
WINTER HEAVEN
ALTURAS
HILLSBOROUGH
POLK
MINEABLE LIMITPEACE RIVER WATERSHEDLAKEROADCITY
COUNTY LINERIVER
MINED NONMANDATORY LANDS
MINED MANDATORY LANDS
ACTIVE CLAY SETTLING AREAS
LANDS TOTALLY/PARTIALLY RECLAIMEDPEACE RIVER MINING AND RECLAMATION HISTORY
Phosphate Mining through 2000Phosphate Mining through 2000
.-, 4
(/27
(/98
"!60
"!37
"!39
(/30 1
"!39
"!674
"!640
"!62 "!6
"!630
"80
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"!60
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LAKELAND
PLANTCITY
BARTOW
FORT MEADE
PIERCE
WINTER HEAVEN
ALTURAS
HILLSBOROUGH
POLK
MINEABLE LIMITPEACE RIVER WATERSHEDLAKEROADCITY
COUNTY LINERIVER
MINED NONMANDATORY LANDS
MINED MANDATORY LANDS
ACTIVE CLAY SETTLING AREAS
LANDS TOTALLY/PARTIALLY RECLAIMEDPEACE RIVER MINING AND RECLAMATION HISTORY
Approximately55% Reclaimed
Basin CharacteristicsBasin Characteristics
Basin Population TrendsBasin Population Trends
Population Trends in Peace River Watershed
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1900 2000
Year
Popu
latio
n CharlotteDeSotoHardeePolkTotal
Groundwater DeclinesGroundwater Declines
Potentiometric Surface DeclinesPotentiometric Surface Declines
20
40
60
80
100
120
Wat
er L
evel
(ft a
bove
NG
VD)
5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80Approximate Distance (miles)
AVERAGE ('88-'92) PREDEVELOPMENT
LakeHancock
Charlotte Harbor
Polk Co. DeSoto Co. Charlotte Hardee Co.
Arcadia Fort Meade Bartow
Potentiometric Surface of the Upper FloridanAquifer along the Peace River
Upper Watershed - Losing RiverUpper Watershed - Losing River
Southern Water Use Caution AreaSouthern Water Use Caution Area
Study area lies wholly within the SWUCA region
Long-term Hydrologic PatternsLong-term Hydrologic Patterns
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Central Florida Rainfall by DecadeCentral Florida Rainfall by Decade
Changes in Flow PercentilesChanges in Flow Percentiles
Changes in Water QualityChanges in Water Quality
Water Quality vs. Time - ConductanceWater Quality vs. Time - Conductance
Peace River at Arcadia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
8/1/
63
8/1/
66
8/1/
69
8/1/
72
8/1/
75
8/1/
78
8/1/
81
8/1/
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8/1/
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8/1/
90
8/1/
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8/1/
96
8/1/
99
Cond
ucta
nce
(um
hos/
cm)
Watershed Stressor and MetricsWatershed Stressor and Metrics
Stressors• Mining• Agriculture• Urbanization• Climate Change
Metrics• Streamflow• Water quality• Groundwater
elevations• Miles of streambed• Acres of floodplain• Acres of wetlands• Acres of mined lands• Acres of agricultural
lands• Acres of urban lands
Sub-basin Based StudySub-basin Based Study
GIS Time Series Analysis ToolsGIS Time Series Analysis Tools
Tools used extensively by PBS&J for watershed time series analysis and modeling
ArcGIS 9.0 Time Series Time series tool for land
use, contributing area, etc.Attribute time series for
streamflow
Spatial Analyst:Zonal statistics for tracking
land use/cover through time.Summary statistics for
studying changing relationships through time.
Tracking Analyst:Animates/correlates
multiple layers changing through time.
Spatial Analyst Time SeriesSpatial Analyst Time Series
1945 1979
1990 1999
’45 to ’79= -33%
’90 to ’00 = -4%
’79 to ’90 = +4%
Task 1- Literature Review and Data Collection
Task 1- Literature Review and Data Collection
• Collect, check and organize existing information and create standardized data bases
• Develop comprehensive Access based bibliography
• Use previous and ongoing studies to develop basin specific conceptual surface and groundwater models
Task 2 – Description of Historical ChangesTask 2 – Description of Historical Changes
• Time series estimates of subbasin-specific changes in:– Rainfall patterns– Streamflow– Water quality– Point and non-point discharges– Drainage alterations– Consumptive surface and groundwater
uses– Land use/habitat
• Estimate regional changes in groundwater withdrawals
Task 3 – Identification and Analysis of Factors Causing Changes
Task 3 – Identification and Analysis of Factors Causing Changes
• Development of subbasin-specific water budgets to differentiate key hydrologic processes
• Effects of stressors are not distributed evenly among the various subbasins
Statistical analysis to assess relative magnitude of changesin response to watershed stressors
.
Task 4 – Evaluate Regulatory EffectivenessTask 4 – Evaluate Regulatory Effectiveness
• Old mined lands reclamation rules – pre 1975
• New mined lands reclamation rules
• CUP/WUP• ERP• CWA Section 404/10• TMDLs• Mitigation banking rules
Evaluating Regulatory EffectivenessEvaluating Regulatory Effectiveness
1. Select and review indicatormetrics and desired values– e.g., miles of streambed
2. Develop a consensus about gaps between indicators and desired values
3. Relate gaps to regulatory programs and authorizations
Evaluating Regulatory EffectivenessEvaluating Regulatory Effectiveness
4. Review program trends and how they may be closing gaps
5. Review benefits of non-regulatory approaches by resource agencies
6. Draft and test inferences (public involvement) and develop recommendations
Evaluate Use of BuffersEvaluate Use of Buffers
• Environmental benefits– Hydrology
• storage and attenuation of peak flows– Water quality
• assimilation of sediments and nutrients
– Habitat• wildlife corridors and habitat
connectivity– Recreation and aesthetics
Buffers IssuesBuffers Issues
• Legal Issues– Review SJRWMD buffer rules on Wekiva
and Econlockhatchee Rivers– Review legislative authority and make
recommendations
• Economic Impacts– Costs minus benefits = impacts– Use of IMPLAN model– Calculate buffer value as mitigation using
UMAM
Analytical ApproachAnalytical Approach
Causative Effects(Flows, Water Quality,
Habitat)Level of
Uncertainty
Time SeriesTemporal / Spatial
Metrics ofChange
MultivariateAnalyses
Water BudgetUncertainty
ManagementAlternatives
DEP Watershed
ManagementPlan
Task 5 - Public InputTask 5 - Public Input
• End of Tasks 1 and 2 – Agency and Stakeholder Workshop
• Task 3 – Technical Workshop of Causal Relationships
• Task 3 – Agency and Stakeholder Workshop on draft Technical Memorandum
• Task 4 – Agency and Stakeholder Workshop on draft Report
Project TimelineProject Timeline
• Project initiated in January 2005
• 12 month duration
• DEP Management Plan in January 2007
Peace River Cumulative Impact Study
DEP Bureauof Mine Restoration.