Pdr.supp Final Paper

7/30/2019 Pdr.supp Final Paper

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PoPulation and develoPment review 38 (SuPPlement) : xxxxxx (2012) 1

Peak Farmland andthe Prospect or LandSparing

Jesse H. Ausubel

Iddo K. WernIcK

PAul e. WAggoner

epcg h ch pp h , c-

g s, ggg ss, pssg n, cs -

y. th ps h-cy scp zg

s c s cg hp h hys

pss h n. Bgg h h ps cps

h g s-pg cs i Ch s s h

u Ss, h c h-cy. w s k bck

h ps 150 ys h gs k ep h u Ss bc h

bcs chc, bgc, chc s

gc h is r. ogzg yss h h

ImPACT identity, h s cbg h s

cp pc, cg pp, fc, , h pc

gc pcs.

India and China

i 1960 h pp i s b 450 . i 1961, i f-

c, s s by GdP, q b 65 b c uS s (w

Bk 2012). th g i cs 2,030 cs (kcs)

p y, h ppchs c hshs hg.1

i s 161 hcs (mH) g cps, h

h cy p 4 10 s2 y c gs,

6 pc s g g h c h 1960s (F

agc ogz [Fao] 2012). i h u Ss 1960,ygss sh sh h ps b g h hs

s h h hgy ch i.


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2 P e a k F a r m l a n d a n d t h e P r o s P e c t F o r l a n d i n g s P a r i n g

th ys b 1960 2010 s bbs, fc,

b . is pp s h s, h

c s 15 s. By 2010, h g i sh

cs h 1960. wh jy is s h cy-s, y h cs, h hy p ss s scs

(Ch 2011; msy e Fss, G

i 2009). th 15 mH i ss h 1960s 2000

cs h sz h s i h uS.th s shs ssc pk .

i, hch h ps h hgh h 1960s, h

ps ys b 1970 1989 11 ys b 1990

2009 (Fao 2012). Bcs gc chgs c h

1960s 1970s pss s s ys sc, cp ccpy 5 pc , 170 mH, 2009 (Fao 2012).

as pc Fg 1, h c hs h i ss

s p gs Hy-k bckg, h h

h b hs bs h pcy gs sc 1960. th 65

mH sp s h sz Fc h is.

a h G r c s g h 1960s, h sp-

g c h y-s cy. uk s h s

h , hs hs p g ps h cg b

cg cp ps hs.

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

mllohecres(mH

)

Sp

ac

FIGURE 1 Actual and potential land used or wheat production,India 19612010upp sg shs h hcs s hv pch c hvs h ys sy h 1960 v.

SourCe: Fao (2012).


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J e s s e h. a u s u b e l / id d o k. We r n i c k / P a u l e. W a g g o n e r 3

a cps Fao ps csp h GdP p cp

shs h is, k Pkss Jps, csg

h fc (Fao 2012). d h y gs i b

h c hcs h cps, by, cps ? th sp-g z (c) pc Ch, h -hs h

z s s, ss h cssy gs spg. as

i, Chs pp c g, y h cs

sc 1961. dg h s h-cy, Chs pp b, h

GdP p 45 s (w Bk 2012). as hy p ps-

p, h g Chs cs c s y cs, cg cs

8 s ggs 14 s k . ahgh sg

csp Ch cs h h i, h pc

csp s s h h pc fc: 45 s fc g s y 14 s csp.

wh h hs Chs c b g h h-

cy, ch hs hc bc h h s

pc (Fg 2). th 120 mH sp s h q

2 Fcs 8 is. wh scp css c s

s h ps cp , h Chs ss -

py p 30 pc 1990 2010 (Fao 2010, 2010b).

dsp h hs , i Chs -

s h pps h sg h ps c .

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

mllohecres(mH)

Sp

ac

FIGURE 2 Actual and potential land harvested or maize production,China 19612010upp sg shs h hcs s hv pch c hvs h ys sy h 1960 v.

SourCe: Fao (2012).


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rsg cs bgh b , b g h csp-

g ch sy h sg cs bg p. e

h pp Ch g sy h fc. i bh

cs, gc chqs p h ys cps sg hgh-yg s s, cp schs, syhc zs,

g, h css, b g. as hs s b-

c chgcy cp, b

pcs gc g sc ccy.

a k p cp 1700 y h -

h cy shs h y s i Ch s

h sbsh cp s g y sc (rky

Fy 1999). Cp p s gc

p. uk sh s as, s nh ac sp-p sps h pp b 1700, b s p

cq, spc p cs. nh ( Sh) ac

s y chgs sch s hss cs -

h ch, pcg g cps g s h g

ys. G pcy nh ac s h .

United States

th u Ss ps g, cy--h jcy h -

b . dg h g sp, pg s sp

cs g h s hs cps c h cs

gc pc. icsg h g h p,

h u Ss h hy cs pc ch h s

sppy y. F p, 2007, C, h ep u,

h u Ss cc b h gb z h gb

h pc (Fao 2012).

B h 1860s 2010, h pp h u Ss g

s. ic, s s by GdP, g 130 s. C pc

h u Ss s 17- 1866 2010 (uS B h Css1975 2012). Y, s p h c 1925 h 2010

(Fg 3). n h c h c hs spg h c

pc sc 1940. F s cs b h 1970s, h

s c c h u Ss c bsy, -

sp gg pc. th s h s s cs h

h uS c hs ccp sg bs

c. th pcg uS c s h g b 2 pc

sg 1990 20 pc by 2006/07 (ts 2008) y 40

pc 2011(agc mkg rsc C 2012).3

Gby 2006/07 12 mH c s hs h, hch ppchs h

i -q h Fc.


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1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

a

reproucorelveo186

6

FIGURE 3 Area o corn harvested and corn production,United States 18662010 (indexes, 1866 = 1)

C hvs

C pc

SourCe: uS B h Css (1975, 2012).

F b 1850 1910, pg bs s, hp by

gc ggs g s s, c uS

ss pc . l h h cy, h

uS ss sbz h h b sg uS ss

cs ppcby 1952 2007 (Sh . 2009).o h cs h cs ep s, g-

c h u Ss sp py pg

pps, scy gby. Sbsqy, s s ,

gc cy sh h pc ggphc gs,

ys cs, h ps cp s s. P-

c cp s sp ys Fc, Ch,

egyp h h cy Fc y ssy h h

sp h u Ss, , Ch egyp, h -

cs (Fg 4).

The ImPACT identity

a h jcs h cs s ypc? C g-

z h sbzg, phps g, cp ccps sg

pp fc gs? t b h yss by

h sp cs, ps pc by

h w Bk Fao, gy h ys 1961 2010.4 w

sz pcs h h ps y h spscs by ps, ks, css, s (wgg

asb 2002). th y s qs h cp s


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h h pc pp, fc, cs cs p GdP,

cp pc p c, q p pc. ths

cs c b pss s s:

Im = ipc = P A C1

C2

T

h:

Im = Cp ( hcs) k s h b

p cps5 (psg cy s cp c,

h s py cb), s p by h Fao.

BBBB

BBBBBBBB

BBBBBBBB

JJ

JJJJJ

JJJJJ

J

J

J

J

J

J

JJ

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

mllos

a(hcs)

Pc (s)

FIGURE 4 Area harvested and production or wheat in France 18202010,rice in China 19202010, and wheat in Egypt 18902010

France (wheat)

SourCeS: mch (1992, 1993, 1995); Fao (2012).

B

BBB

BBBBBB

JJ

JJ

J

J

JJJ

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

mllos

China (rice)

BBBBBBBBBB

BBBJJ

J

J

J

JJJ

J

JJ

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

mllos

Egypt (wheat)


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P = Pp (pss)

A = afc ( GdP p cp)

C1

= Csp 1 ( kc/GdP), h kc s h

gb sppy kcs bh g scs. C

1cks h y sps fc cs, c

bh hg css.

C2

= Csp 2 ( Cp Pc i [Pin]/kc) sg h

Fao Cp Pc i, hch ss h ggg

gc cp pc bs y. C2

cks h

cp pc , , , b, bcc h sppy

cs. i s s pg chcs cc sp-

py.

T = tchgy ( hcs/Cp Pin) cks h ch ss cp .

o y hs cs ss h

Im [hcs] = P[pss] A [GdP p cp] C1

[kc/GdP]

C2

[Pin/kc] T[hcs/Pin]

Chgs hs cs cpss pc. Sgh-

hc css6 sg h chgs

hs pc by g gh h ghc chgs, hc pp-

pcg chgs, h cs. rpsg h chgs bycs s, c

im =p + a + c1

+ c2

+ t

w cgz h pc, spcy h g , h -

cs h bs. F p, s pspyA chc

chg T; h sch p cp, y T

s. epg g gg cps C1

s C2.

wh h PACTbs p h, ycy

c s h b h g cbs pcpc, sch s s cps. th ss h pcgs

chg p csb c b cp, q-

, , sbc.7

Global patterns

th s h chgs h g h p 1961

2010 h iPaCt cs s, b ps -

p cc pc. Fg 5 spys h ps c by ps,ks, css, s h -y g gs.

a 1970, h cs gb pp bg s.

Pp c g h , b sy s s h


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ps, b g, p Fg 5. ag h sg c,

pp gh pp b 2 pc c 1970

b 1.3 pc c 2004. ahgh ps h chs s

gh, s cc pp gh

0.7 pc h h-cy ccg s un css.

th c a, fc, fc b ys g 12 pc p y

g h h-cy gs sy c pp gh. th

cc bgg 2008 sp h g s fc,

b h s pss.

th chg b cs p GdP, c1, b 1 pc

y g g h p. i h s, css cscc csp sp h css GdP. is cgss c

cg c1z. ecss s h z

chgg fc, c1/a, ps 1, g h hy c c sc-

y. i hs cs, h gb scs 0.25 1961 2010 y

0.12 1995 2010, bh s chcsc sps.

a cps h cps Fg 5 h h g

cs gs h g y h c h h p s

c cs, h h hy sp s-

h. msg egs l, cy cy cs -c s, cc k ss, ss, y y

s fc gs. th g ch Fg 6 Ch 1961

h u Ss 2007 cs s GdP p cp 498-

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Percent/year

FIGURE 5 Annual change of ImPACT factors in global croplandshown by ten-year moving averages 19612010The thick impact (im) line sums the other five. Population (p) and affluence(a) raise impact, while technology (t) lowers it, and forms of consumer behavior(c) may lower or raise it. When the value of the impact line falls below zero,cropland is released for other uses.

SOURCES: FAO (2012); World Bank (2012).

pa

c2

im

c1

t


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p kc/GdP 187-, hch gh csp gb c

scy 0.16.8

o cs, h g , css pss y cc. a h

g s fc, p cg fc sg cscy cs r, y Cs cy

h ep gs h S u. dg h c 1989

1999, h fc s ch s 24 pc r, h -

b cs p ps h 3 pc, C1, h

cs p GdP, cy s 33 pc. th s, hgh s sk,

pcs Hgy, P, Bg s h h -

z cs ss h fc cs. rg pspy

ss h z.

Pcg g sch s z s pss gg cp sch s h h cy s cs h h

sppy. Gg g css h C2

cp pc p

c h sppy bcs h cs cs h

pc. m y s y h h sp, fc

css csp h css c csp. as

h Chs g f b 1970, h csp

g py h z. By h 1990s, h, h Fao

p Chs csp sg ss h h s s s fc

zg 6 pc p y 1995 2007. as i cs-

s g f, hy bh y. thy sccy cs h

csp g h h-cy 2010, csg p -

z hbg c scs b z. Gby, g

FIGURE 6 Dematerialization o ood, 19612007th p kc/GdP s c GdP p cp Ch, i,h u Ss, h shs gby css bhvv g cs cs.

SourCeS: Fao (2012); w Bk (2012).

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

FF

TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

TTTT

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

10

100

1000

10000

10 100 1000 10000 100000

kcl/GdP

GdP p cp ($)

Chi

uSs

w


10/28


csp p cp z 1980 1995, b

h s Ch, s y h s s s fc 1995 2007.

th chg cp pc p c h sppy c2

hs s

cy. Sg 1990, s bg sg cp pc py h h cs h sppy s, g h c c

2, c-

g h s pc hgh-, -c cps,

cps, spcy cps, ph s sh

(Js m 2011).

F cs i sg c ps Bz -

c p ss is, s h h c

cp gy cps, pcy h s c. ecg by -

ps by g pcs, gb cps p 4

25 mH c z ys, s b. lkg h, h, cc bjcs s s scg ps

gy cps (mch 2012; n rsch Cc 2011).

Fy, h s h-cy, s h gb h css-

y sqz cp h s , y g h hc-

s cp p pc, t, by 2 pc. a cb

gc chgs s ys, kpg pss h

cp, spg n.

Cg h gb s pp fc by ps

ks, css s s h ps b by

chgg ss g ys. th cb shkg h

cp s c h Cp Pc i sc 1990 (Fg 7)

ps cg h s c spg .

III

II

IIII

III

IIIII

IIIIII

IIIIIIII

IIII

IIIIIII

IIII

III

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

a

rblel/CropPin(ex1961

=1)

FIGURE 7 Arable land/Crop PIN, T, or the world, 19612009t pc qv ggg cp pc (Pin) 2009q y b 35 pc h 1961.

SourCe: Fao (2012).


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wh h b p cp pc shs -

p ccy s, h b hcs cp hs sccy

chg sc 1990. abs h 3.4 pc b gy

cps (ts 2008), bs cs h bg g h sc.

Looking back and looking forward

i hy hs y pss s pk s , ?

tb 1 pss chgs iPaCt cs cspg ps

pjcs. a cps h s s h b

shs b cs b h h-cy h s c

15 ys. Pp gh s cssy g h c p.ays h fcs, fc c g, b sy h

c p. th sppy c, h b

cp pc bh c sghy sp s. upc-

y, h cp pc sppy sp p. th s

h chgs s s c h gh s cp

pc, hch s 0.24 pc p y 19612010 0.04

pc p y 19952010. F h cg h-cy, 2010 2060,

g h gzg pcp h iPaCt y,

chgs h c b y pjc.

Pp, chgg gy sy, s h s sb

h cs cg cp. th2010 Revision h uns World Population

TABLE 1 Actual and projected changes o global ImPACT actors, percentper year

ImPACT actor

Crop ArableAfuence: Food PIN/ land/GDP per supply/ Food Crop Arable

Population capita GDP supply PIN land(P) (A) (C

1) (C

2) (T) (Im)

d 19612010 1.68 1.67 1.20 0.24 2.15 0.24

d 19952010 1.24 1.53 1.35 1.04 2.42 0.04

2001 pjc 19972050 +0.91 +1.80 1.26 0.0 1.70 0.25

2012 pjcs ( +0.9 +1.8 1.6 +0.4 1.7 0.2vs) 20102060b (+0.7) (+1.5) (1.4) (0.0) (2.1)

noteS: rs 1 2 sh c vg chgs g h h-cy 1961 2010 g s c-cg 15 ys 1995 2010. r 3 shs pjcs h h-cy 1997 2050 by hhs g Population and Development Review(wgg asb 2001). Fy, c xpcsc 2001, r 4 shs p pjc 20102060, h v pjcs phss.i h 2001 pjc (wgg asb 2001) C

1 C

2 sghy hs s h. i h pbc,

C1

s F Pin/GdP, F sppy/GdP s h; C2

s Cp Pin/F Pin, h Cp Pin/Fsppy s h.

bS x bss v pjcs.


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Prospects (u ns dp ecc Sc as 2012)

pjcs sg h 19952010 1.2 pc p y 0.7

pc cs g h 40 ys, s pjc 0.9

pc h h-cy ss cs. th un pjc 0.7 pc h 40 ys ps sc .

afc, fcg bs bss, chgs pjc

yhg b g . F 1961 2010 1995 2010, f-

c s b h 1.5 pc y g. th g p

Fg 5 h ps h-cy sggss h pjcg

1.8 pc h ss sb ps g sy

h pc h g cps. th c

1.5 pc g h 19952010 b css ps sc

.tgh, pp fc ps chg h -

. o pjcs 0.9 pc 1.8 pc cb y

cs hs chg by h GdP gh 2.7 pc. th cs

sg pssby cg s s b h g cs, C1,

C2, T, by h s css h s.

F 1961 2007, p cp sppy s 27 pc, h

sghy csg s sh h h (tb 2). Chgs h c C1

s h y cs pp s h c ss. Gby

1961 2010 h fc s 1.67 pc y g, h

b kcs p cp s y 0.5 pc

(Fg 5). Bcs h g gb cz y s ch, pc h

cs h c, sg

scy 0.1, js b h 0.12 19952010. a c scy

0.1 cb h fc sg 1.8 pc p y csps c1

1.6 pc. th fc sg y 1.5 pc p y

c scy 0.1 csps c1

1.4 pc.

Chgs h c C2, cp pc p kc sppy,

s h ch s pc h sppy. Spy

kg h cs pc hs b csp- c s cps shs h g c b h

TABLE 2 Global ood supply in kilocalories per person per day anddistribution by major category, 1961 and 2007

Percent distribution

Total Animal OtherYear (kcal) Total Cereals products vegetal

1961 2,201 100 49 15 362007 2,798 100 46 17 37

SourCe: Fao (2012).


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s pc h css . i 2007, h Fao p h

s pc 2.35 b s cs 0.79 b s ss.

a 4,000 kc p kg, hs ss h pc 12.57 b

cs y 5,000 kc/ps/y 7 b pp cs ss . Bcs h Fao p 2,798 kc/ps/y h

sppy 2007, s h y h h cs hs

cps ss h h cs cps h sppy.

th C2

fcs h chgs h c chg h sppy.

tb 1 shs h h p 19612010 C2

s sy, h

p 19952010 s shpy.

Kg h css h s 15 ys sg C2

p -

pjc s cs. Gby, ccs s cs

pg bc by hs pg . a cs,pc cps k c, hp, bcc, s -

ky cs sg cp pc p kc sppy bcs

Faos n Pin s sy h s Cp Pin, bh b 1961

2010 b 1995 2010. th Faos lsck Pin s s

sy h s Cp Pin, g cs pc s

ky sc h p s.

tyg y h cs h shp s C2, -

ss cps, p hscy by Gg wshg Cs

scy 202 pcs h p (m 1929) chgy, h -

s s cps. th pcs ks bsb h

by pc by s. m cy, ps p, h s

gy pc, c s cb h cb cc-

g h cg b s spp pcs. ths pcs

cg pc h h csq s cp, s y

s g h cps (w, Css, ncks 2011). Sg

bs ss h 4 mH 1995, by 2007 ccg h uSda

Fao, y 25 mH cps s s

(ts 2008).9 ths b cs h s b gby

1995 2010, sggsg h ch h cp hs p s s g s.

i Fg 5 s h b 1990, c2

sc z,

h g y. th y bs s j

cps h -1990s hps p h cs c2 0.24

pc h 19612010 p 1.04 h s 15 ys h p.

Chp , p gs h k by h

cy hgh ccy, sbss

css c scg bs, hs spg n,

z h z gh c2 pc h tb 1. as hshcgs bs bc gs chps

h k, csy pjc c2s sg 0.4 pc


14/28


y, sghy ss h h h 19952010 . ths

h gh cp pc s c gh h

sppy by h 20 pc. a bs bs g

. ay, h cp pc sppy c y s s sc z, bs ks cps

pb gb sc. th sy cp pc

s sc z b 1990, s Fg 5, spp c2

pjc 0.0 pc.

ahgh h gb g h cc sppyhch Fao ss

c hghs s h q ss b h

q 2,000 kc/ps/y, h Fao s s s

ac cs sh. i s ps ac cs,10

ch hg sppy ss h 2,000 kc/ps/y h y1990s, cs cs p ps cs cp pc

s h pp sc S p h ks 1992 (S

1994). dsp ps, h, h Fao ps sh h p

pb hs cs, h h csg

fc cp pc s h b kcs p ps

p y 2,100. lg cs s pp cs

s k h gb gs pjcs (a-

s Bs 2012). Bcs gphs pc h

pp gh s ac b spsb ch h

cs gb pp, h h sch ac cs s n-

g, Cg, ehp s ys, h s, p ,

p czs s by hs cc b s. th

cs bh h sb h sppy s h cs

cpss. ahgh c sy hh sb b q

h , gb pjcs cs a ps c1

s g sp-

py b 3,100 kc/ps/y 50 ys, csby b h

q b 2,000.

Fc T, h cp p cp pc Pin, ss

s sy ss sp, s h s s p hc, y. i h u Ss, s y c ys 1.53

s/h 1866 s 1.47 s/h g h 1930s.

th hy h ys s cs (Fg 3) 10.07 s/h

h bp y 2004. accgy, h sc h hc-

s p , c T, 0.65 1866 0.68 h 1930s 0.10 2004

(uS B h Css 1975 2012). th ps h-cy tch Fg 5 shs h c sc (.., spg), gb-

y cps. th j ogs ecc C-p

dp (oeCd)/ Fao k 20112020 cps gcpc gg 1.7 pc y, s h h 2.6 pc h

ps c (oeCd/Fao 2011).


15/28


ahgh s pssy c pcs, js s h 1995

2010 pc c pcs 1.7 pc 2001,

sh p h 1.7 pc s s, b h c s

g c ys 1.8 pc p y ch b 1983 2011(Fg 8). a p 1.7 pc ss 2060

py pc p by 2.3 s. F c, h g gb

y 2060 sb h g uS y 2010 (Fg 8). F-

s g h 19612010 gs h pjc

2.1 pc p y.

lkg h, s sk hh bgc phsy-

hss s cs h s ys ccgy s h c

T s spg . th cs pc Fg 4 sggs

s S-cs. H, hs sh pc, y, pb-by pss ck pb ks h cs pc bgg

cps. Spss h g s. (thy y gy p h -

s h hbg sc h 1950s, s s sgh ks h

c.) a c b bgc s s h s g i ys

h n C Gs assc cs, hch c s

h g b bh h uS g ys hs

p cp (Fg 8).11 F, sy, h h-cy, hs c sggss

FF

F

F

F F

FF F

F

F

F

F

F

FF F

F

FFFF

FF

FF F

F

H

H H H HHH H H

HHHHH H

H H H H H HH H H H

H H HI

I

I I I

I

I I

I

I

I

I

I

I II I I

II

I

I

I I II

I

I

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

tosperhec

re

Cs s0.91%/y

uS vg1.72%/y

w vg1.80%/y

FIGURE 8 Corn yields, 19832011th hghs z ys i h n C Gsassc cs cp h uS vgs. th pcgs shvg css.

SourCeS: rch Jg, g, n C Y Cs, Chs, mo, pscc 2012; Fao (2012).


16/28


ppchg bgc spps pjc ps

Tsh 4 tb 1.

th chgs gb iPaCt cs sh 4 tb 1

pjc jcy gb cp chg h 50 ys. Fg- 9 shs h cb csqc h pc s ch

h iPaCt cs h gb b p cps. o

cs, cs y c pjcs, b c h s-

sps cs, sp, bs hsc jcs.

a g yss, as Bs (2012) s h

h by s gh pc s

h pk . accg pjc, by 2060 s 146

mH c b s n, q h s h

sz egyp, h s Fc, s i.th s h s tb 1, by , s h

pc 146 mH s cp. Sg pp gh

0.7 pc s h 0.9 pc p z

1.4 pc 1.6 pc ch sp 132 mH. u-

p y gh, 2.1 pc s 1.7 pc, h s

cp s gc pc, c sp -

252 mH.

S pp gh, s s phps fcg cc

b bsy h csg ppy g , b-

bs, c p chgy s s

. Ss 50 ys, sch pc k

hy s c pk s spg.

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 20600

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

mllohecres(mH)

d 19612009 Pjc 20102060(im = 0.02)

FIGURE 9 Peaking armland: Extent o global arable land andpermanent crops 19612009 and our projection or 20102060

SourCe: F 19612009: Fao (2012).


17/28


Gb b p cps sp 1,371 mH 1961

1,533 mH 2009, pjc 1,385 mH 2060.

uby, h s g z hs h gh

ys. th s hs g c h s h-cy spcy h s 20 ys. th g g c b s

s h qpp g s hcs, s h

cs cbc ks. Gby, g p 1.4

pc p y 1900 1950, cc 2.1 pc p y

1950 1995, h s 0.5 pc p y 1995 2003

(Fyk Sb 2008). i 2010, h cy g s

253 mH gby, csp g s 1,277 k3/

y(Sb . 2010). Hsc g s c

, b ccg h Fao h gh h-s s b 1.4 pc (Fao 2012; u ns e P-

g 2002). i h u Ss, h h g pk

1980, hs sc c cp pc by g 2.0

pc p y (Ky . 2009). w-csg pccs sh-

g g h c s ch hs p,

hch y sh gb p sb g h s

g h c c cp p cp , T.

ng z, k , ss ys shks h

pc pc qy cp. a w w ii, c-

c syhc g bc b g, s csg c-

sp c cp pc h 1960s by s ch s 10 pc,

b h cs s by h 1980s b 0.5 pc

2.5 pc. Gb sh h z csp p

cp pc s y 0.72 pc y 1970 2009 (i-

Fz assc 2012; Fao 2012). Bcs g cpss

16 pc p, h hs h s ps g

s ss s c h s, pcss h s hss

s scks. th 50 g p y p h ch ps qs qs 3 kg

p y g. r g pcs ss s gppc c b c h c h, gby, h g z

ppc p cp 14.6 kg p y s cs h h q-

g p.

Conclusions

o yss cpsss h g cp by ps, k-

s, css, s. Sc 1960, h cb bhs h

sp s h s h cp h h c- bh s, pps, ys, h cs gh h s

pc. i Ch h sp h h s h


18/28


sz Fc z s i. abs h sg pp gh,

g ss, pg gc pccs, gb sc-

n h cc.

th ps 50 ys h y ss p pks - scs. th cs pp pk

1970 hs s csby sc h. Pks s sc s

h pss h s ss ss y cs

gs. By h 1980s s j p b -

ss pg. a 1990, gg sck p y s

cs (Kpp . 2006), g 19902010 h sy ss

g gs, b y (r . 2011). lk s

h cps, h pcy ss pg pcs hs s.

mh csp hs s -s pc pp s h pcs, sch s s ph ps, hs -

c. as h b, pks s s g y

s h pss.

th pk cp cp Fg 9 s p-

h sc. th s cp pk ss p h

pk, h h pp gh. whh fc pk

ps h cg cp b sgy bss s

ccpc h ss pssb.

i y cs, h cs h sppy p GdP, h s fc

, bgs h y s c h

chg pp fc. a k hys sg

fc, s sg hs s h hp h chg. th

s 2,000 kc/ps/y ss . th pp

, sy, 4,000 s by bsy s h h s h GdP.

wh h z c sps sch s cs hps

c h chg pp fc, h bsy s

h c. Pcg g s pss

cps h cy s cs h sppy s css h

cp pc p c h sppy. Fy h spg cp, csp s sg y h s s s fc.

w sps by h cy sg cp pc

cs h sppy. th gh bs ss h cs

h c sp pjcs. i g pcy ppy c-

gs s g cps h ch h sppy, ss

cp b sp h cp by hkg y cs

cp. C f s h cps . i h

ps, pps h cg cps spss

pss pcs.ths b sp sh bsc h cc, ys

h shkg hcs p cp pc. th s


19/28


h G r h 1960s, b p b z,

sppy, cp pc, cc h shkg cp. Pcs

s dna, z, g, ps c, h css

pg s hp c g ys.ag, h, cs p h g, bh

gs spg. as scss, h c bs c

pcs h ps 15 ys. ms cs pbby c

c css. w pp chs ch ? i

s, b b, hch qs h py sh, hch

q ss? w pp bc g g? B hy

bc g, hy s chs chg , hp,

c, hch q hcs? w h g h c g

hs q cs? w s by ccp bsy hs hgh g cs p cp? w gb pp h

g 40 ss h h g 28? w c

s pc hy cs ss gc-

(asb 2010)? w hg s c-

g cp ps ac Sh ac? (Cp y,

cs, shk s cs h pg hs s h gb

s cs.) a h sps ck h gb

gs, pc sps hg css g gs

s?

ag cs, b h pjcg cs -

s pp, fc, css, chgy shs hy

pkg h s . o h 50 ys, h pspc s h

hy s ky s s 146 mH, h s h sz

egyp, h s h Fc, is, pssby -

ps hs .

nhsg h bs cs, h s h ps 15 ys gy

sb hs h ps 50 150. w s c hs

h cs h h pkg cp h sbsq s

n.o yss cp, ccg spg n,

ks yhg b s cp h c chc cps

y. wss s jyg n c c h, phps

h c sg by, ssg s hps sh by

sps cps.

ah 50 ys , h G r y b c

y h gb s hgh-y c pccs y

cps, b s h h pk h s s cgs

n. as 20 ys g ss b spg(wgg 1994). n c h s h pk cp-

s, gzg ps h b sp n.


20/28


Notes

1 th Fao ss chc hg

by cs: th g gyq p ps s b 1800 kc

p y. th c q s

by pss g, by sz, cy

physgc cs sch s ss, c-

, pgcy c. hp://.

.g/hg//.

2 thgh hs ssy, s s

c s.

3 wh c s pcss h,

csb c s s y s-

s gs sbs (ddGS), p g. Ccg h 40

pc h c pc s h-

pc hs g s

h pcg b 31 pc c

pc 2011, ss h c -

s b 48 pc, s

h h pc s qg

h c s. S h agc

mkg rsc C eh usg

Pjcs & C Bc Sh hp://

.s.s./g/cps/-

k/cbcsh.p.

4 t ch 2010, s cssy

s cp 2010 s q

2009 kcs p ps p y

20082010 s h g 20022007.

5 F h s hs ssy, h s

cp b h

Fao cgy ab P

cps.

6 t s chgs

by cs s, s h cx = (Xf/X

i)/(f i) h X

f X

i

h X ys h

p bg yz (f i) s h b

ys h . ths p s js-

s chgs (..,x


21/28


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_________. 1993. International Historical Statistics: The Americas 17501988. n Yk: SckPss.

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1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

Millionhectares(MHa)

Spared

Actual

FIGURE 1 Actual and potential land used for wheat production,India 19612010Upper segment shows the hectares farmers would have tilled to producethe actual harvest had yields stayed at the 1960 level.

SOURCE: FAO (2012).

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Millionhe

ctares(MHa)

Spared

Actual

FIGURE 2 Actual and potential land harvested for maize production,China 19612010Upper segment shows the hectares farmers would have tilled to producethe actual harvest had yields stayed at the 1960 level.

SOURCE: FAO (2012).


24/28

1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Areaandproductionrelativeto1866

FIGURE 3 Area of corn harvested and corn production,United States 18662010 (indexes, 1866 = 1)

Corn harvested area

Corn production

SOURCE: US Bureau of the Census (1975, 2012).


25/28

BBBB

BBBBBBBB

BBBBBBBB

JJ

JJJJJ

JJ

JJJJ

J

J

J

J

J

JJ

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

10

20

30

40

50

Millions

Area(hectares)

Production (tons)

FIGURE 4 Area harvested and production for wheat in France 18202010,rice in China 19202010, and wheat in Egypt 18902010

France (wheat)

SOURCES: Mitchell (1992, 1993, 1995); FAO (2012).

B

BBB

BBBBBB

JJ

JJ

J

J

JJJ

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

50

100

150

200

250

Millions

China (rice)

BBBBBBBBBB

BBBJJ

J

J

J

JJJ

J

JJ

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Millions

Egypt (wheat)


26/28

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Percent/year

FIGURE 5 Annual change of ImPACT factors in global croplandshown by ten-year moving averages 19612010The thick impact (im) line sums the other five. Population (p) and affluence(a) raise impact, while technology (t) lowers it, and forms of consumer behavior(c) may lower or raise it. When the value of the impact line falls below zero,cropland is released for other uses.


pa

c2

im

c1

t

FIGURE 6 Dematerialization of food, 19612007

The plot of kcal/GDP as a function of GDP per capita for China, India,the United States, and the world shows globally consistent behaviorover a range of incomes and cultures.


FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

FFFFFFFF

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF

TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT

TTTT

HHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH

IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII

10

100

1000

10000

10 100 1000 10000 100000

kcal/GDP

GDP per capita ($)

ChinaIndia

UnitedStates

World


27/28

III

II

III I

III

I IIII

I I IIII

II I I III I

I II I

I I II I I I

II II

III

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Arableland/CropPIN(

index1961=1)

FIGURE 7 Arable land/Crop PIN, T, for the world, 19612009To produce an equivalent aggregate of crop production (PIN) in 2009required only about 35 percent of the land needed in 1961.

SOURCE: FAO (2012).

FF

F

F

F F

FF F

F

F

F

F

F

FF F

F

FFFF

FF

FF F

F

H

H H H HHH H H

HHHHH H

H H H H H HH H H

H H HHI

I

I I I

I

I I

I

I

I

I

I

I II I I

II

I

II I I

I

I

I

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Tonsper

hectare

Contest winners0.91%/year

US average1.72%/year

World average1.80%/year

FIGURE 8 Corn yields, 19832011

The highest maize yields in Iowa entered in the National Corn GrowersAssociation contest compared with US and world averages. The percentages showaverage annual increases.

SOURCES: Rachel Jungermann, manager, National Corn Yield Contest, Chesterfield, MO, personalcommunication 2012; FAO (2012).


28/28

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Millionhectares(MHa)

Data 19612009 Projection 20102060

(im = 0.02)

FIGURE 9 Peaking farmland: Extent of global arable land andpermanent crops 19612009 and our projection for 20102060

SOURCE: For 19612009: FAO (2012).

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