The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally...
Transcript of The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally...
The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally18th Annual Executive Oil Conference18 Annual Executive Oil Conference
Jerry Schuyler, President & COOL d P l ILaredo Petroleum, Inc.
April 3, 2012
NYSE: LPIwww.laredopetro.com
Forward‐Looking / Cautionary StatementsThis presentation (which includes oral statements made in connection with this presentation) contains forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”, “Laredo” or “LPI”) assumes, plans, expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward‐looking statements. The words “believe,” “expect,” “may,” “estimates,” “will,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “foresee,” “should,” “would,” “could,” or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward‐looking statements, which are generally not historical in nature. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward‐looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward‐looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include the expectations of plans, strategies, objectives and anticipated financial and operating results of the Company, including as to the Company’s drilling program, production, hedging activities, capital expenditure levels and other guidance included in this presentation. These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on management’s expectations and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward‐looking statements. These include the factors discussed or referenced in the “Risk Factors” section of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K dated March 20, 2012, risks relating to financial performance and results, current economic conditions and resulting capital restraints prices and demand for oil and natural gas availability of drilling equipment and personnel availability of sufficienteconomic conditions and resulting capital restraints, prices and demand for oil and natural gas, availability of drilling equipment and personnel, availability of sufficient capital to execute the Company’s business plan, impact of compliance with legislation and regulations, successful results from our identified drilling locations, the Company’s ability to replace reserves and efficiently develop and exploit its current reserves and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected.
Any forward‐looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward‐looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.
h S i i d h C i i (“S C”) ll i il d i i fili d i h h S C di l d hi hThe Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) generally permits oil and gas companies, in filings made with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves, which are reserve estimates that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions and certain probable and possible reserves that meet the SEC’s definitions for such terms. In this presentation, the Company may use the term “unproved reserves” which the SEC guidelines restrict from being included in filings with the SEC without strict compliance with SEC definitions. The Company does not choose to include unproved reserve estimates in its filings with the SEC. “Unproved reserves” refers to the Company’s internal estimates of hydrocarbon quantities that may be potentially discovered through exploratory drilling or recovered with additional drilling or recovery techniques. Unproved reserves may not constitute reserves within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineer’s Petroleum Resource Management System or SEC rules and does not include any proved reserves. Actual g y g g y y pquantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company’s interests will differ substantially. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals and other factors; and actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates. Estimates of unproved reserves may change significantly as development of the Company’s core assets provide additional data. In addition, our production forecasts and expectations for future periods are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the undertaking and outcome of future drilling activity, which may be affected by significant commodity price declines or drilling cost increases.
This presentation includes financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principals (“GAAP”) including adjusted EBITDA. While management believes that such measures are useful for investors, they should not be used as a replacement for financial measures that are in accordance with GAAP. For a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the nearest comparable measure in accordance with GAAP, please see the Appendix.
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Global Supply and Demand
100Annual World Liquids Supply & Demand
90
95
er Day
Today
85
90
Supply
D dn Ba
rrels P
e
80
Demand
Million
70
75
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
3
Source: EIAYear
The World’s Top Liquids Producers
11 2
Saudi ArabiaRussia
The Top 15 in 2011 (MMb/d)
11.2
20.3USIranChina
10.1
2.1
CanadaFSU OtherBrazil
9.6
2.6
2.5
2.4 MexicoUAEIraq
4.2
43 83
2.82.8
2.6
2.6NigeriaKuwaitVenezuelaAl i3.83.53 AlgeriaAll Others
487.5 MMB/D TOTAL Source: EIA
Domestic Oil Production Growth
11000
U.S. Avg Daily Oil Production (1970‐2015)
9000
10000
day Oil Shale
7000
8000
d Ba
rrels pe
r d Revolution Begins!
5000
6000
Thou
sand
3000
4000
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
5Source: EIA, Raymond James
Sources of US Domestic Supply
10000
U.S. Oil Production by Major Play 2006 ‐ 2015
7000
8000
9000
Williston
5000
6000
Eagle Ford
Permian
MBp
d
Miss. Lime, Granite Wash, Niobrara, Barnett Shale, Anadarko Basin
2000
3000
4000agle Ford
GOM
0
1000
2000
Rest of U.S.
6
Source: Raymond James
Permian Basin Oil ProductionPermian Basin Avg Daily Oil Production
2,500
r day
2,000
and Ba
rrels pe
1,500
Thou
sa
1,000
500
7Source: TRCC and NMOCC, Forecast based Raymond James growth model
01970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Supply Available to Meet U.S. Demand
U.S. Domestic and Canadian Import Daily Production Forecast (MMb/d)
31%20%
13%24%
2010 2015
24%41%
25%
41%22%
10 5 MMb/d 16 4 MMb/d
Other U.S.
Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford
Canada
U.S. NGL
10.5 MMb/d 16.4 MMb/d
8Source: CAPP, Raymond James, EIA, Bentek
How Much do we Close the Gap?
2005 2010 2015
Imports
U.S. Demand ‐ 21 MMBbl/D U.S. Demand ‐ 19 MMBbl/D U.S. Demand ‐ 20 MMBbl/D
Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford
Canada
US Other 1US Other
58%45% 82%% of Demand Supplied by U.S. & Canada
91 US Other includes GOM and NGLs along with all other basins Source: CAPP, Raymond James, EIA, Bentek
Is the Permian Production Forecast Underestimated?
A Hypothetical Upside Case
Assumptions:
G d illi i i 10%/• Grows drilling activity 10%/year
• Assumes drilling locations are not limited
• Maintains current ratio of horizontal to vertical drilling rigs
• Assumes no well performance improvements in the futureAssumes no well performance improvements in the future
10
Permian Hypothetical Upside Scenario
700
Permian Texas Total Rig Count
500
60010% Annual Growth Forecast
400
500
Permian (TX) Total
200
300
Permian (TX) Total
10% Growth Forecast
100
0
Jan‐00
Jul‐0
0
Jan‐01
Jul‐0
1
Jan‐02
Jul‐0
2
Jan‐03
Jul‐0
3
Jan‐04
Jul‐0
4
Jan‐05
Jul‐0
5
Jan‐06
Jul‐0
6
Jan‐07
Jul‐0
7
Jan‐08
Jul‐0
8
Jan‐09
Jul‐0
9
Jan‐10
Jul‐1
0
Jan‐11
Jul‐1
1
Jan‐12
Jul‐1
2
Jan‐13
Jul‐1
3
Jan‐14
Jul‐1
4
Jan‐15
Jul‐1
5
Jan‐16
11
Source: Baker‐Hughes
Permian Rig Activity by Operator
Source: Bentek
Rig count includes Texas and New Mexico
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Permian: Geologically Complex & Historically Prolificy
13
Bone Spring, Avalon Shale, Wolfbone, Wolfberry, Wolffork, Wolfcamp Shale, Penn Shale, Cline Shale, etc.
Permian: Sample of Multiple Opportunities
MULTIPLE IDENTIFIED3,900’‐5,700’
MULTIPLE IDENTIFIEDPOTENTIAL HORIZONAL TARGETS
STACKED VERTICAL PAYS
RT
ICA
LFB
ER
RY
RG
ET
S5,000’‐7,500’
’ ’
VE
RW
OLF
TAR6,000’‐8,000’
7,000’‐8,300’
9,000’‐9,500’
9,500’‐10,000’
141 Formation depths are approximate.
Permian: Hypothetical Growth Potential
2500
3000Permian Basin Avg Daily Oil Production (2005‐2015)
2000
r day
150010% Increase In Rig Actvity Case
Raymond James Forecast
TRCC & NMOOC Data
and Ba
rrels pe
1000Thou
sa
0
500
02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
15
Source: TRCC, NMOCC, Raymond James, Laredo
Is U.S. Energy Independence Achievable by 2020?y
2020
21 MMBbl/D Demand
C ib iContributing Factors:
• Permian Basin• Bakken/Eagle Ford• Bakken/Eagle Ford• Other Oil Shales• GOM Deepwater• Canadian Production• Diesel Fleet Conversion to CNG• Natural Gas Vehicles
H th ti ll Y !Hypothetically… Yes!
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The Importance of the Permian to Laredo Petroleum
NYSE: LPIwww.laredopetro.com
Permian‐Driven Oil / Liquids Growth
29 040
35,000 Increased oil production
driven by expansion in
Boe/d
23,709
29,040
25,000
30,000
41%
driven by expansion in Vertical Wolfberry, Horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline Shales drilling in the Permian Basin
20,000
Oil
2011 FY Production: 8.7 MMBoe
9,762
14,278
10,000
15,000
59% PermianGraniteWash
Other12%
4,226 5,000
Liquids‐rich gas
Permian 62%
Wash26%
‐FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12E
1 FY 2011 production includes production from Broad Oak Energy, Inc. on a combined basis for 2011 and for periods prior to July 1, 20112 Company released guidance on January 18, 2012 based on 2011 estimated production of 8.5 MMBoe
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Significant PDP Growth Potential
Other10 MMB
2011 Year‐End Reserves: 156.5 MMBoe1 Laredo’s current drilling program is concentrated on exploring and exploiting hi h t ti l i th P i /
Granite Wash
45 MMBoePermian
101 MMBoe
10 MMBoe6%
high‐potential acreage in the Permian / Midland Basin with multi‐year PUD‐to‐PDP conversion phase underway
21 825.0
29% 65%
(MMBbl) Year over Year Oil + Condensate PD Growth
12.4
21.8
15.0
20.0 Increase in PD Oil Reserves
RESERVES (NET MMBOE)
PDP PDNP PUDTotal Proved % DEV
5.0
10.0Oil / Condensate (MMBbl) 20.9 0.9 34.5 56.3 39%Natural Gas (MMcf) 232.5 16.1 352.5 601.1 41%Total (MMBOE) 59.6 3.6 93.3 156.5 40%
0.02010 2011
Oil / Condensate (MMBbl)1 Proved reserves reported on a two‐stream basis. Gas price is adjusted to reflect NGL benefit. Proved reserves and value as of 12/31/11, Ryder Scott evaluation, SEC pricing. 19
Years of Growth Embedded in Extensive Drilling Inventory
Total Gross Laredo’s inventory of high‐quality
drilling locations is identified and de‐
Granite Wash335 locations
Identified Potential Drilling Locations1 = 6,004(94% Permian)
risked through…
Drilling Results: Laredo has over 600 vertical & horizontal wells on its
Permian acreage
PermianHorizontal
Permian acreage
Vertical well single zone testing
Core Samples: More than 2,200 ft of 2,243
locationsPermianVertical3,426
locations
whole cores, 400+ sidewall cores taken
3D Seismic Library: Over 470 sq. miles of data in‐house, another 250+ sq. miles
being acquiredlocations being acquired
Advanced logging / stimulation technologies employed
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Verification of upside potential supported by Industry activity
1 Company estimates. See page 35and 36 for details.
Focused Capital Program
$35 MM L d & S i i
$10 MM Pipeline $15 MM
h
Approximately 80% of 2012 drilling capital directed to vertical Wolfberry, horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline Shale
$20 MM Other
Land & Seismic Other horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline Shale drilling in the Permian Basin
Drilling Capital Plan Summary
$120 MM Granite Wash$700 MM
Drilling
Drilling Capital Plan Summary
Currently 16 operated rigs Permian
― 4 horizontal
$560 MM Permian Basin
Drilling ― 8 vertical Anadarko Granite Wash
― 3 horizontal― 1 vertical
$760 MM Capital Budget
$700 MM Drilling
Exit 2012 with 19‐20 operated rigs 1
gBudget
1 The mix of Laredo’s planned capital deployment (rig count, area, and horizontal and vertical well type) is driven by continuously emerging data and is subject to change. 21
NYSE: LPIwww.laredopetro.com