The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally...

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The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally 18 th Annual Executive Oil Conference 18 Annual Executive Oil Conference Jerry Schuyler, President & COO L d P l I Laredo P etroleum, Inc. April 3, 2012 NYSE: LPI www.laredopetro.com

Transcript of The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally...

Page 1: The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally ... and demand for oil and natural gas, availability of drilling ... and de ‐

The Importance of Permian Oil Production Nationally18th Annual Executive Oil Conference18 Annual Executive Oil Conference

Jerry Schuyler, President & COOL d P l ILaredo Petroleum, Inc.

April 3, 2012

NYSE: LPIwww.laredopetro.com

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Forward‐Looking / Cautionary StatementsThis presentation (which includes oral statements made in connection with this presentation) contains forward‐looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All statements, other than statements of historical fact included in this presentation that address activities, events or developments that Laredo Petroleum Holdings, Inc. (the “Company”, “Laredo” or “LPI”) assumes, plans, expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future are forward‐looking statements. The words “believe,” “expect,” “may,” “estimates,” “will,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “foresee,” “should,” “would,” “could,” or other similar expressions are intended to identify forward‐looking statements, which are generally not historical in nature. However, the absence of these words does not mean that the statements are not forward‐looking. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, forward‐looking statements contained in this presentation specifically include the expectations of plans, strategies, objectives and anticipated financial and operating results of the Company, including as to the Company’s drilling program, production, hedging activities, capital expenditure levels and other guidance included in this presentation. These statements are based on certain assumptions made by the Company based on management’s expectations and perception of historical trends, current conditions, anticipated future developments and other factors believed to be appropriate. Such statements are subject to a number of assumptions, risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond the control of the Company, which may cause actual results to differ materially from those implied or expressed by the forward‐looking statements. These include the factors discussed or referenced in the “Risk Factors” section of the Company’s Annual Report on Form 10‐K dated March 20, 2012, risks relating to financial performance and results, current economic conditions and resulting capital restraints prices and demand for oil and natural gas availability of drilling equipment and personnel availability of sufficienteconomic conditions and resulting capital restraints, prices and demand for oil and natural gas, availability of drilling equipment and personnel, availability of sufficient capital to execute the Company’s business plan, impact of compliance with legislation and regulations, successful results from our identified drilling locations, the Company’s ability to replace reserves and efficiently develop and exploit its current reserves and other important factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected.

Any forward‐looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward‐looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law.

h S i i d h C i i (“S C”) ll i il d i i fili d i h h S C di l d hi hThe Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) generally permits oil and gas companies, in filings made with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves, which are reserve estimates that geological and engineering data demonstrate with reasonable certainty to be recoverable in future years from known reservoirs under existing economic and operating conditions and certain probable and possible reserves that meet the SEC’s definitions for such terms. In this presentation, the Company may use the term “unproved reserves” which the SEC guidelines restrict from being included in filings with the SEC without strict compliance with SEC definitions.  The Company does not choose to include unproved reserve estimates in its filings with the SEC. “Unproved reserves” refers to the Company’s internal estimates of hydrocarbon quantities that may be potentially discovered through exploratory drilling or recovered with additional drilling or recovery techniques. Unproved reserves may not constitute reserves within the meaning of the Society of Petroleum Engineer’s Petroleum Resource Management System or SEC rules and does not include any proved reserves. Actual g y g g y y pquantities that may be ultimately recovered from the Company’s interests will differ substantially. Factors affecting ultimate recovery include the scope of the Company’s ongoing drilling program, which will be directly affected by the availability of capital, drilling and production costs, availability of drilling services and equipment, drilling results, lease expirations, transportation constraints, regulatory approvals and other factors; and actual drilling results, including geological and mechanical factors affecting recovery rates. Estimates of unproved reserves may change significantly as development of the Company’s core assets provide additional data. In addition, our production forecasts and expectations for future periods are dependent upon many assumptions, including estimates of production decline rates from existing wells and the undertaking and outcome of future drilling activity, which may be affected by significant commodity price declines or drilling cost increases.

This presentation includes financial measures that are not in accordance with generally accepted accounting principals (“GAAP”) including adjusted EBITDA.  While management believes that such measures are useful for investors, they should not be used as a replacement for financial measures that are in accordance with GAAP.  For a reconciliation of adjusted EBITDA to the nearest comparable measure in accordance with GAAP, please see the Appendix.

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Global Supply and Demand

100Annual World Liquids Supply & Demand

90

95

er Day

Today

85

90

Supply

D dn Ba

rrels P

e

80

Demand

Million

70

75

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

3

Source: EIAYear

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The World’s Top Liquids Producers

11 2

Saudi ArabiaRussia

The Top 15 in 2011 (MMb/d)

11.2

20.3USIranChina

10.1

2.1

CanadaFSU OtherBrazil

9.6

2.6

2.5

2.4 MexicoUAEIraq

4.2

43 83

2.82.8

2.6

2.6NigeriaKuwaitVenezuelaAl i3.83.53 AlgeriaAll Others

487.5 MMB/D TOTAL Source: EIA

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Domestic Oil Production Growth

11000

U.S. Avg Daily Oil Production (1970‐2015)

9000

10000

day Oil Shale 

7000

8000

d Ba

rrels pe

r d Revolution Begins!

5000

6000

Thou

sand

3000

4000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

5Source: EIA, Raymond James

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Sources of US Domestic Supply

10000

U.S. Oil Production by Major Play 2006 ‐ 2015

7000

8000

9000

Williston

5000

6000

Eagle Ford

Permian

MBp

d

Miss. Lime, Granite Wash,  Niobrara, Barnett Shale, Anadarko Basin

2000

3000

4000agle Ford

GOM

0

1000

2000

Rest of U.S.

6

Source: Raymond James

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Permian Basin Oil ProductionPermian Basin Avg Daily Oil Production

2,500

r day

2,000

and Ba

rrels pe

1,500

Thou

sa

1,000

500

7Source:  TRCC and NMOCC, Forecast based Raymond James growth model

01970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

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Supply Available to Meet U.S. Demand

U.S. Domestic and Canadian Import Daily Production Forecast (MMb/d)

31%20%

13%24%

2010 2015

24%41%

25%

41%22%

10 5 MMb/d 16 4 MMb/d

Other U.S.

Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford

Canada

U.S. NGL

10.5 MMb/d 16.4 MMb/d

8Source: CAPP, Raymond James, EIA, Bentek

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How Much do we Close the Gap?

2005 2010 2015

Imports

U.S. Demand ‐ 21 MMBbl/D U.S. Demand ‐ 19 MMBbl/D U.S. Demand ‐ 20 MMBbl/D

Permian, Bakken, Eagle Ford

Canada

US Other 1US Other 

58%45% 82%% of Demand Supplied by U.S. & Canada 

91 US Other includes GOM and NGLs along with all other basins Source: CAPP, Raymond James, EIA, Bentek

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Is the Permian Production Forecast Underestimated?

A Hypothetical Upside Case

Assumptions:

G d illi i i 10%/• Grows drilling activity 10%/year

• Assumes drilling locations are not limited

• Maintains current ratio of horizontal to vertical drilling rigs

• Assumes no well performance improvements in the futureAssumes no well performance improvements in the future

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Permian Hypothetical Upside Scenario

700

Permian Texas Total Rig Count 

500

60010% Annual Growth Forecast

400

500

Permian (TX) Total

200

300

Permian (TX) Total

10% Growth Forecast

100

0

Jan‐00

Jul‐0

0

Jan‐01

Jul‐0

1

Jan‐02

Jul‐0

2

Jan‐03

Jul‐0

3

Jan‐04

Jul‐0

4

Jan‐05

Jul‐0

5

Jan‐06

Jul‐0

6

Jan‐07

Jul‐0

7

Jan‐08

Jul‐0

8

Jan‐09

Jul‐0

9

Jan‐10

Jul‐1

0

Jan‐11

Jul‐1

1

Jan‐12

Jul‐1

2

Jan‐13

Jul‐1

3

Jan‐14

Jul‐1

4

Jan‐15

Jul‐1

5

Jan‐16

11

Source: Baker‐Hughes

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Permian Rig Activity by Operator

Source: Bentek

Rig count includes Texas and New Mexico

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Permian: Geologically Complex & Historically Prolificy

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Bone Spring, Avalon Shale, Wolfbone, Wolfberry, Wolffork, Wolfcamp Shale, Penn Shale, Cline Shale, etc. 

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Permian: Sample of Multiple Opportunities

MULTIPLE IDENTIFIED3,900’‐5,700’

MULTIPLE IDENTIFIEDPOTENTIAL HORIZONAL TARGETS

STACKED VERTICAL PAYS

RT

ICA

LFB

ER

RY

RG

ET

S5,000’‐7,500’

’ ’

VE

RW

OLF

TAR6,000’‐8,000’

7,000’‐8,300’

9,000’‐9,500’

9,500’‐10,000’

141 Formation depths are approximate.

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Permian: Hypothetical Growth Potential

2500

3000Permian Basin Avg Daily Oil Production (2005‐2015)

2000

r day

150010% Increase In Rig Actvity Case

Raymond James Forecast

TRCC & NMOOC Data

and Ba

rrels pe

1000Thou

sa

0

500

02005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

15

Source:  TRCC, NMOCC, Raymond James, Laredo

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Is U.S. Energy Independence Achievable by 2020?y

2020

21 MMBbl/D Demand

C ib iContributing Factors:

• Permian Basin• Bakken/Eagle Ford• Bakken/Eagle Ford• Other Oil Shales• GOM Deepwater• Canadian Production• Diesel Fleet Conversion to CNG• Natural Gas Vehicles

H th ti ll Y !Hypothetically… Yes!

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The Importance of the Permian to Laredo Petroleum

NYSE: LPIwww.laredopetro.com

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Permian‐Driven Oil / Liquids Growth

29 040

35,000  Increased oil production 

driven by expansion in

Boe/d

23,709

29,040 

25,000 

30,000 

41%

driven by expansion in Vertical Wolfberry, Horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline Shales drilling in the Permian Basin

20,000 

Oil

2011 FY Production: 8.7 MMBoe

9,762 

14,278 

10,000 

15,000 

59% PermianGraniteWash

Other12%

4,226 5,000 

Liquids‐rich gas

Permian 62%

Wash26%

‐FY 08 FY 09 FY 10 FY 11 FY 12E

1 FY 2011 production includes production from Broad Oak Energy, Inc. on a combined basis for 2011 and for periods prior to July 1, 20112 Company released guidance on January 18, 2012 based on 2011 estimated production of 8.5 MMBoe

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Significant PDP Growth Potential

Other10 MMB

2011 Year‐End Reserves: 156.5 MMBoe1 Laredo’s current drilling program is concentrated on exploring and exploiting hi h t ti l i th P i /

Granite Wash

45 MMBoePermian

101 MMBoe

10 MMBoe6%

high‐potential acreage in the Permian / Midland Basin with multi‐year PUD‐to‐PDP conversion phase underway

21 825.0

29% 65%

(MMBbl) Year over Year Oil  + Condensate PD Growth

12.4

21.8

15.0

20.0 Increase in PD Oil Reserves

RESERVES (NET MMBOE)

PDP PDNP PUDTotal Proved % DEV

5.0

10.0Oil / Condensate (MMBbl) 20.9 0.9 34.5 56.3 39%Natural Gas (MMcf) 232.5 16.1 352.5 601.1 41%Total  (MMBOE) 59.6 3.6 93.3 156.5 40%

0.02010 2011

Oil / Condensate (MMBbl)1 Proved reserves reported on a two‐stream basis. Gas price is adjusted to reflect NGL benefit. Proved reserves and value as of 12/31/11, Ryder Scott evaluation, SEC pricing.   19

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Years of Growth Embedded in Extensive Drilling Inventory

Total Gross Laredo’s inventory of high‐quality 

drilling locations is identified and de‐

Granite Wash335 locations

Identified Potential Drilling Locations1 = 6,004(94% Permian)

risked through…

Drilling Results: Laredo has over 600 vertical & horizontal wells on its 

Permian acreage

PermianHorizontal

Permian acreage

Vertical well single zone testing

Core Samples: More than 2,200 ft of 2,243 

locationsPermianVertical3,426 

locations

whole cores, 400+ sidewall cores taken

3D Seismic Library: Over 470 sq. miles of data in‐house, another 250+ sq. miles 

being acquiredlocations being acquired

Advanced logging / stimulation technologies employed

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Verification of upside potential supported by Industry activity

1 Company estimates. See page 35and 36 for details.

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Focused Capital Program

$35 MM L d & S i i

$10 MM Pipeline $15 MM 

h

Approximately 80% of 2012 drilling capital directed to vertical Wolfberry, horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline Shale

$20 MM Other

Land & Seismic Other horizontal Wolfcamp and Cline Shale drilling in the Permian Basin

Drilling Capital Plan Summary

$120 MM Granite Wash$700 MM 

Drilling

Drilling Capital Plan Summary

Currently 16 operated rigs Permian

― 4 horizontal

$560 MM Permian Basin

Drilling ― 8 vertical Anadarko Granite Wash

― 3 horizontal― 1 vertical

$760 MM Capital Budget

$700 MM Drilling 

Exit 2012 with 19‐20 operated rigs 1 

gBudget

1 The mix of Laredo’s planned capital deployment (rig count, area, and horizontal and vertical well type) is driven by continuously emerging data and is subject to change.  21

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NYSE: LPIwww.laredopetro.com