John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University ... - … W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University Texas...
Transcript of John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University ... - … W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University Texas...
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Dealing with Water in
Texas’s Climate
John W. Nielsen-Gammon, Texas A&M University
Texas State Climatologist
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Topics
• Heavy rain
• Annual rain
• Drought
• Next year’s rain
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Dec-14
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PercentDroughtCoverage,TexasOct.7,2014toPresent
D4
D3
D2
D1
D0
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PercentDroughtCoverage,TexasOct.7,2014toJan.5,2016
D4
D3
D2
D1
D0
Weekly number of flood reports
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1/1/50 1/1/60 1/1/70 1/1/80 1/1/90 1/1/00 1/1/10
NumberofTop-25One-DayRainEventsPerDecade
Freestone Leon Madison Limestone Robertson Brazos
Milam Burleson Lee Bastrop Average
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All county-
average one-
day rainfall
totals >5”
since 1950
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All county-
average two-
day rainfall
totals >6.5”
since 1950
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All county-
average two-
day rainfall
totals >6.5”
plus
Washington
County
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All county-
average two-
day rainfall
totals >6.5”
plus
Washington
County and
Thrall
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All county-
average two-
day rainfall
totals >6.5”
plus
Washington
County,
Thrall, and
Hearne
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ChangeinFrequencyofVeryHeavy*Rainfall
Atenthascommon
Afi hascommon
Athirdascommon
Halfascommon
Almostascommon
Morecommon
Twiceascommon
Three mesascommon
Six mesascommon
Waymorecommon
*about once every 5000 days
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Summary: Heavy Rain
• Heavy rain is increasing in general
• Heavy rain is expected to increase
• Local trends are more random
– Don’t trust the local trends!
• Have a plan for Thrall and Hearne
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020
WaterYearRainfall,PostOakSavannahGCD
Freestone Leon Madison Limestone Robertson
Brazos Milam Burleson Lee Bastrop
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WaterYearRainfall,PostOakSavannahGCD
Milam Burleson North-Central East South-Central
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1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015
ClimateDivisionWater-YearPrecipita on
North-Central East South-Central
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ClimateDivisionWater-YearPrecipita on
North-Central East South-Central
Linear(South-Central) Linear(North-Central) Linear(East)
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ClimateDivisionWater-YearPrecipita on
North-Central East South-Central NewYorkState
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Summary: Annual Rain
• Observed upward trend: 10% per century
• Trend tentatively not expected to continue
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1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015Differencefrom20thCenturyAverage(°F)
TX07SeasonalTemperatureAnomalies
Tmaxplus,TminminusTmaxsmoothedsolid,Tminsmootheddo ed
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
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1895 1915 1935 1955 1975 1995 2015Differencefrom20thCenturyAverage(°F)
TX03SeasonalTemperatureAnomalies
Tmaxplus,TminminusTmaxsmoothedsolid,Tminsmootheddo ed
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
DJF MAM JJA SON DJF MAM JJA SON
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ClimateDivisionWater-YearPrecipita on
North-Central East South-Central NewYorkState
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ClimateDivisionWater-YearPrecipita on
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Summary: Drought
• Texas is unusually drought-prone
• Drought depends on:
– Rainfall, increasing so far (good)
– Temperature, increasing (not so good)
– Carbon dioxide (good for plants)
• Drought tentatively expected to become
more severe
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El Niño
La Niña
Neutral
2016 2017
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Normal(1981-2010)
TopTwoElNiños
TopSixElNiños
TopTwelveElNiños
2015-2016
AccumulatedPrecipita
on(inches)
TexasPrecipita onDuringStrongerElNiñoEvents
May
April
March
February
January
December
November
October
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Normal(1981-2010) TopSixLaNiñas TopTwelveLaNiñas
TexasLaNiñaRainfall
March
February
January
December
November
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Next Year’s Rain
• We’ll see
• Odds tilted toward drier than normal winter
• Strong La Niña very unlikely
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Contact Info
• John Nielsen-Gammon
– 979-862-2248
– http://climatexas.tamu.edu
– Climatexas on Facebook