Russ Brown (ICF International) and

Lucas Sharkey (SWRCB)

Daily Reservoir Operations Models for Exploring

Increased Multi-Purpose Benefits

Daily Reservoir Model Ingredients

Inflow-Full Natural Flow or Upstream Reservoir Releases

Reservoir Geometry (Elevation-Area-Volume)

Maximum Flood-Control Storage and Release Flows

Water Supply Diversion Targets (Seasonal x Allocation)

Minimum Release Flow Targets (Fish Flows and Downstream Diversions)

Downstream Flow Benefits (Energy, Temperature, Inundation)

Carryover Storage Benefits for drought protection and cool temperatures (Minimum storage, maximum drawdown)

Daily Historical Reservoir Operations Data for Calibration and Comparison

Daily Inflow Patterns (storm events)

Merced River Inflow and FNF

10,000

9,000

8,000

7,000

6,000 ...... l?'

~ u 5,000 ......

I.'

lllH

~ 0 4,000 -u.

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

~~ ~ ) !"> /

I"'·} Ill Im\ ,,.. '

~ I[~ I ,,.. ail. IA.. I ... u .. '

' ~~ · ~ ~, \ " A~ .1

' \ I IHI' -

~ ~J L Jif.rr:rJl ,,

~ .I , ~ - ~ r ~ ;Ill; M M ~I • •- · ~~ ,,_ .. ~ _;.;; ,.._.. ,, -::.•

I I I I I I I

Oct-69 Apr-70 Oct-70 Apr-71 Oct-71 Apr-72 Oct-72 Apr-73 Oct-73 Apr-74 Oct-74 Apr-75 Oct-75 Apr-76 Oct-76 Apr-77 Oct-77 Apr-78 Oct-78 Apr-79

- Calculated Inflow - Merced Falls - Cumulative Inflow DWR Annual Runoff

2,500

2,250

2,000

1,750

1,500 ~ M

1250 ~ I U.

z 1,000 u.

750

500

250

0

Parameters that can be Specified in the Daily Reservoir Operations Model:

Maximum flood-control storage (4 date-storage points)

Maximum release and days for release (above FC)

Water-Year Index (5 year-types by runoff)

Minimum releases (month x year-type)

Percent of full natural flow releases (month x year- type)

Reservoir evaporation (daily maximum, shape)

Seasonal Diversion targets (begin, end, min, max, shape)

Monthly Downstream Riparian Diversions

Minimum carryover storage

Water allocation (%target) forecast (March 1) as fraction of runoff and available storage (above minimum carryover)

Flood control storage buffer (taf) and fish habitat target flow (for extended inundation benefits)

Here are the Model Controls

Target Fish Flows Switch year type in march Flow at Shaffer Bridge or Stevinson Maximum Flow C-H to

Fraction of Unimpaired Flow (Range=FRUN) Minimum Flow (Range = MinQ) (Range = MaxQ) Shaffer

Month C D BN AN W Month C D BN AN W Month Maximum Diversions

1 0 0 0 0 0 1 150 150 150 150 150 1 1500 0

2 0 0 0 0 0 2 150 150 150 150 150 2 1500 0

3 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.4 3 150 150 150 150 150 3 1500 25

4 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.4 4 150 150 150 150 150 4 1500 100

5 0 0 0.4 0.4 0.4 5 150 150 150 150 150 5 1500 125

6 0 0 0 0 0 6 150 150 750 750 750 6 1500 150

7 0 0 0 0 0 7 150 150 150 150 150 7 1500 150

8 0 0 0 0 0 8 150 150 150 150 150 8 1500 125

9 0 0 0 0 0 9 150 150 150 150 150 9 1500 100

10 0 0 0 0 0 10 300 300 300 300 300 10 1500 25

11 0 0 0 0 0 11 150 150 150 150 150 11 1500 0

12 0 0 0 0 0 12 150 150 150 150 150 12 1500 0

13 1 1 1.25 1.25 1.25 13 0 0 0 0 0

Starting Volume (af) 118 118 154 154 154 48

700,000 taf/yr taf/yr taf/yr taf/yr taf/yr taf/yr

Day for allocation Spill (af) WSE2 includes river diversions in total

60 Canals 1025000 Flow Objective Location

Min Delivery Fraction Maximum Flood 1

0.25 2000 Release 0=Shaffer This case has no additional target flow in C and D years.

begin day 6000 1=Stevinson and no target flow in Feb; 750 in June of BN AN and W years.

60 Buffer Additional delivery in BN AN and W if Delivery fraction is > 0.8

Carryover (af) end day Release [Specified in Model cell O6] Delivery Fraction is in row 13 of FRUN (above)

300,000 300 1500

Delivery Target (af) Total Delivery Buffer (af)

584,089 606,104 25000

Annual Drawdown Northside Days for Release

0.50 0.05 10 (Used for flood release and buffer release)

Year Type Basis Main Canal Fish Flows

3 0.95 1

1=Based on combination of monthly minimum flows and percent unimpaired

1=SJ Valley Index 2=Based on daily NMFS RPA requirements

2=Index based on SJ Valley unimpaired flow

3=Index based on Merced unimpaired flow

4=Mar 1 Storage + Mar through Sep unimpaired flow - Carryover

Examples of Daily Variations Calculated from Model Parameters

"ii ~ :soo ~~r----.~~_,_~~~--:~~--~~~~~--,,._­.. g ;;

~ !lllD -;-~~---7-~f-c-:.,._----~-'---'~---'-~~~,-\-~~~~__.. 0

o ---~~~~-+-~+-~~----'~~~~~-+----'.;_~~.....:. Qm

1-!an l-~b :-Mir l-1« 1-\\rt U.11 Hul 1-kog :-Sep Uh 1-Na~ 1-Dec

Elevation from Volume 1,000

900

800

700

600

500

400

250 500 750 1,000 1,250 1,500

Volume (taf)

~ ~ i

L200.000

l.000.000

800.000

wo.ooo

400.000

200000

1.000

6,000

5.000

J •. ooo " !

3.000

2.000

l.000

New E><chequer Volume

fl•~''°"',, .. ,, • daia - fs11mated

New Exchequer Area

Elevation [feet)

• Data - En.rnattd

•

Reservoir Operations are a Daily Decision-Making Process

Lake McClure Storage

1)00 ....------.--..----.---....-----..,.---.-----,.--..-------..,.--..----r--r-...------.---..---r---.-------.------..---r---..- 6,000

1)00 +-----+---+-----+---+-----+--+----+---+------i---+---f--+--+---+-------+--+-----+--+-----+---+-------i

11000 ~-----t~-t----t-~~-t-------t---t-t-t---t--t-.-t--t----t--1H-1'"---t--t-t--t----t--iH-t--t--f"T----t---t--ftt--T- 5,000

900 +-----t-it---++-----Hl-++-----Hl-++-----H~+----+-l~+-----+-tfl-1-+-----+-t-+-+-----+-t-+-t-----+-t---t-----+-ll~

800 +-----+l'-+-+--\1---1+-1-'1.---H------+t-+--+-t-------~--------___......____. ___ H+- 4,000

700 -14----1¥-+-14-~---~~-~--1.-1-~~--------.u.-<--~----~-~-~---~--4-~------- ~ 't

600 +-++-t--\t--..,._~~--hf-T--t--tt--t---+-t--+--t-dl--t---=-·\----t--+---+---1rl-+-t-"d----t-ilt--+ 3,000 i 0

500 u.

400

300

200 -....----~·__........_.......,,_...__-+--i.--.....+-IP-

100 _.......... __ _

0 -1--""-l---F''"'--'--+---F--=-+---11--'

Oct-69 Apr-70 Oct-70 Apr-71 Oct-71 Apr-72 Oct-72 Apr-73 Oct-73 Apr-74 Oct-74 Apr-75 Oct-75 Apr-76 Oct-76 Apr-77 Oct-77 Apr-78 Oct-78 Apr-79

- Historical - Flood Control - Release - River

2,000

Improved Reservoir Operations are based on a Comparison of Storage Benefits

Lake McClure Storage

1)00

1)00

11000

900

800

~ 700 ta ~ 600 ~ tlO ta 500 .. 0 ~ 400

300

200

100

0 Oct-69 Apr-70 Oct-70 Apr-71 Oct-71 Apr-72 Oct-72 Apr-73 Oct-73 Apr-74 Oct-74 Apr-75 Oct-75 Apr-76 Oct-76 Apr-77 Oct-77 Apr-78 Oct-78 Apr-79

- Historical Flood Control -Calcu~ted - Baseline

Improved Reservoir Operations are based on a Comparison of Water Supply Benefits

Merced River Diversions

2,500

2,000

1,500

~ ~ 1,000

A fJ ~ {\, ,... fr, ~ r: "~' ~ " "

f l1

~ J I

,I

11 11

1

(\,1 /\ , I I (\ ,\

ti I ~

, I ~

~ \ -

I ~ ~

500 /'\. II

I ' ~ ' ' r

~ " ~ L - 1\--1 ' ~ 0 Oct-69 Apr-70 Oct-70 Apr-71 Oct-71 Apr-72 Oct-72 Apr-73 Oct-73 Apr-74 Oct-74 Apr-75 Oct-75 Apr-76 Oct-76 Apr-77 Oct-77 Apr-78 Oct-78 Apr-79

- Historical Delivery Target Delivery - Cal Delivery - Base Delivery

Improved Reservoir Operations are based on a Comparison of River Flow Benefits

Merced River at Crocker-Huff man (Hatchery) Flows

5,000

4,500

4,000

3,500

3,000 ..... : u 2,500 ..... ~ 0

2,000 -LI. .....

1,500 ~

-

1,000

500

0

-- -

a 1 ~ 1111

- ' I

~ I~ " . tlli'~ ~ -. h ~ ~ ~ :I ~ ~ :Ji It 111 I , L ... ....... ,, -- ' ~

"" I I I I

Oct-69 Apr-70 Oct-70 Apr-71 Oct-71 Apr-72 Oct-72 Apr-73 Oct-73 Apr-74 Oct-74 Apr-75 Oct-75 Apr-76 Oct-76 Apr-77 Oct-77 Apr-78 Oct-78 Apr-79

- Historical C-H Flow - Base Release - Calculated

Monthly Storages are a good way to Summarize Daily Reservoir Operations

Lake McClure Storage 1)00

1,000

i:-ta .e 800 GI llO ta .. 0 ~

600 GI .. = -u u ~ 400 GI

.lie ta

..,j

200

J J j j j j j ~ j j j j j j 11 • 11 ' f • • ~

4 • ·~

1 ~· , • ~ ' .. n t

~ : ~ . • • ~ 1 4 ~ • 1

~ u ·w ~ w1 ~ ~ ·~ ~ w w "" . J l ...... '~ .w ~

u w - - -. ' .. ~' 0 ... I.A.

T

7; w. § u ;\ I ~ .. IY ~ J • ~ •

~ ~ ~

. ~. 1 A ~ ~

~ ~

j ~ I ~ ~~ ~ 1 "' 1 J:4' t v I ~,,. ~ ~~ J. • 8 ·~ ~

~, • l.J •• ~ ~- ~

I 0 Oct-69 Oct-70 Oct-71 Oct-72 Oct-73 Oct-74 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-80 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88

- Flood Control + Historical - Daily Base - Daily Case

Monthly Deliveries are a good way to Summarize Daily Reservoir Operations

Merced ID Deliveries

~ • ~

~

• . ~ I • I ~

• • • ~ t • .ft. ~ • • • • I • • ~ • • I • ~ • ~ • ... "

~ ' • • "'" \ • • • • • I ~ 1 • ~ ,,, .

·~ ' • • • ~ n I

500

~ n ' • ' ~ JI ~ ~ • • • • ' ~ ~ '

· ~ +. " • ~ ~ • • . ~ ~ Ill ,., • • , • • ~ n • • •

' • t

• l.4 .... i... lilii • 11111111 ~ ....... ~ 1 ... d Wit l.t.J ........ to.. ..... """ .. ... lllilli liMi • IM.I ...... IM.I •

"' Tr .... """" ,.. .. ..... rn ......... ,......, 0

Oct-69 Oct-70 Oct-71 Oct-72 Oct-73 Oct-74 Oct-75 Oct-76 Oct-77 Oct-78 Oct-79 Oct-80 Oct-81 Oct-82 Oct-83 Oct-84 Oct-85 Oct-86 Oct-87 Oct-88

+ Historical - Daily Base - Daily Case

Annual Summary of Daily Reservoir Model Results- with historical data

c;-

1! "' ""

·~ .I: 0 ., l! 1 :I

800

700

bOO

500

1100

100

200

100

0 1970

1,000

900

800

700

GOO

500

400

300

200

100

0 1970

1975

1975

Merced River Diversions

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 --Historical Dally 011se ---Dally Model Case A rull Demands

Lake McClure Carryover Storage

19RO 19RS 1990 1995 1000 1005 1010

Reservoir and River Benefits can be Estimated using Simple Relationships with Storage and Flow

Hydropower energy is calculated from reservoir elevation and release flow (maximum capacity)

Recreation benefits are calculated from reservoir elevations and river flows [and fish abundance for fishermen!]

Salinity benefits are calculated from Merced river flow and upstream San Joaquin River flow and EC conditions

Fish benefits are calculated from river inundation area and velocity [growth, survival, habitat capacity]

Fish benefits and impacts are calculated from reservoir release temperatures and downstream temperatures (warming) effects on eggs, growth, smoltification, survival

Hydro-Electric Energy Generation is a Substantial Reservoir Benefit

Salinity Benefits Contribute to Real-Time Management for the SJR Salinity TMDL

Riparian Habitat Inundation is a Major Juvenile Fish Benefit in January-June

Water Temperatures are important habitat conditions controlling several fish life-stage benefits

Water Temperature calculations can be confirmed (calibrated) with measured data

Flow benefits might be increased by using an “inundation flow” target of 1,500 cfs and a flood control buffer of 25 taf

Conclusions and Recommendations for Daily Reservoir Operations Models

Daily reservoir operations models for the Merced, Tuolumne, and Stanislaus Rivers can be used to explore adaptive management for alternative SJR flow objectives

Daily reservoir operations Models provide more accurate and more flexible operations that can be adjusted to explore increased fish flow benefits while preserving the important beneficial uses for flood control, irrigation, energy generation and recreation.

Daily reservoir operations models should be developed for all Central Valley rivers with major reservoirs that flow to the Delta. A daily operations model for the Delta (including San Luis and Los Vaqueros reservoirs) should also be developed. Upstream reservoir operations should be included for rivers with >100 taf of upstream storage.

Additional development of calculations for fish benefits using daily tracking of fish life-stage (age, length) effects from river flows and water temperatures should be encouraged.

Please contact me: Russell.Brown@icfi.com