PCWA MFP Operations Model All Models are Wrong But Some Models are Useful.
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Transcript of PCWA MFP Operations Model All Models are Wrong But Some Models are Useful.
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PCWA MFP Operations Model
All Models are WrongBut
Some Models are Useful
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What is a Model?A Simulation Model is a mathematical representation of a physical system that includes:
RiversReservoirsConveyance and Release Facilities
Tunnels, Penstocks & Powerhouses,
Streamflow release valves
Operating Rules, Licenses and Agreements
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What is a Model?
The Model routes water (Input Hydrology) through the System (mathematical representation of the physical world) according to Rules
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What is a Model?
A model chooses how water is routed through the system in order to meet certain criteria and goals.
A model allows us to measure the impact that changes to the input set will have on the output set.
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What are the Rules?
Rules are inputs to the Model
Rules represent decisions made by the operators
Rules fix operating parameters that can vary from run to run
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Examples of Rules
Instream flow requirements
Storage level requirements and targets
Use of discretionary water supplies
Meet Consumptive Demands
Generate Power
Provide Recreation
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Other Model Inputs
Flow (Hydrology) - PCWA believes that it has a reasonably accurate record of Project flows since the project began operation in 1968
For each different set of inputs, we intend to generate output using the same identical set of historic hydrology
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Other Model Inputs
Fixed Criteria - project parameters that cannot be changed without physical alteration of the Project. Fixed Criteria include:
Tunnels and Turbine capacities
Outlet capacities
Elevations
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Other Model Inputs
Water Supply Demands - special class of Rules
Consumptive demands at Folsom Reservoir
Consumptive demands at Auburn Pump Station
Environmental Demands (Water Forum Agreement)
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Model Outputs
Tables to verify that the Rules are met
Rules guide the operation of the model, but may not be met 100% of the time. For example, minimum instream releases will not be met if a reservoir runs dry. Having the flexibility to violate rules helps provide information.
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Model Outputs
Reservoir Level Trace
Identify excursions from “preferred” operation - too high (spills and loss of generation) or too low (risk of failure to meet consumptive demand)
Power Generation
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Benchmark and Baseline
A Benchmark Run is used to verify that the model reasonably represents actual historic operations
The Baseline Run is the run against which all Alternative Model Runs are compared to determine the impacts of proposed conditions on the MFP operation
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Benchmark and Baseline
PCWA proposes that the difference between the Benchmark and the Baseline Runs is that the Benchmark Run uses historic consumptive water demands and the Baseline Run uses buildout consumptive water demands
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Using the Model
Model
Consumptive Demands
Hydrology
Operating Rules
Fixed Criteria
Verification Tables
Reservoir Levels
Input
Output
Baseline Study
Generation
Model
Consumptive Demands
Hydrology
Operating Rules (Changes)
Fixed Criteria
Verification Tables
Reservoir Levels
Input
OutputGeneration
Alternative Study
Assess Impacts
Assess Impact
s
Compare
Outside Model
Inside Model
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Assessing Impacts
The Model Does Not assess environmental impacts
The model only provides comparative information on water supply and power generation for Alt Model Runs
Assessment of the full impacts of any Model Run is done by people
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Assessing Impacts
An analysis of the benefits and costs of each alternative may be viewed differently by each person
To develop alternatives based upon environmental parameters requires completion of the 1st year of field studies. March 2009.
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Alternative Model Runs
The desire to create a given environmental condition leads stakeholders to suggest changes to the rules
The resulting model run shows the impact of the rule change on water supply and power generation
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Where are we now?
The Model is operational
Benchmark input set has been assembled for testing
A draft users manual has been prepared
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What do we do until 2009?
Verification
Education
Development (betterments, hourly)
Investigate physical limitations
Find our sideboards: Dry year issues, Ralston Afterbay flexibility
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How do we get there?
Process: We need good process around our group understanding of how Modeling Alternatives are developed, run and assessed