PCIC reported on the results of itshydrological modelling project withBC Hydro during a recent jointworkshop held in Burnaby April 20,2010.The PCIC­BC Hydro jointworkshop "Assessing HydrologicImpacts on Water Resources inBC: Current Accomplishments andFuture Direction" featured technicalpresentations by PCIC as well asthe University of Washington'sClimate Impacts Group, theWestern Canadian CryosphericNetwork, Ouranos and HydroQuébec. In addition to presenting PCIC preliminary project results, the workshopalso offered a venue for exploring the implications of this research on the utilitycompany's future adaptation and resource planning activities.Chris O'Riley, BC Hydro's Senior Vice­President of Engineering, Aboriginal Relationsand Generation, said in his opening remarks that BC Hydro needs to take a long­term view towards its operations and remain aware of the potential impacts ofclimate change on the delivery of its services. He also noted that the collaborativerelationship between BC Hydro and PCIC has been a productive one and a sourceof pride for the crown utility.PCIC hydrologic modelling has centred on three major BC watersheds: the PeaceRiver (at W.A.C Bennett Dam), the Campbell River (at Strathcona Dam) and theUpper Columbia River (at Mica Dam). Preliminary results indicate a projectedincrease in streamflow and an earlier spring runoff for the Peace and ColumbiaRivers. A shift to increased rainfall in the Campbell River in response to highertemperature and seasonal precipitation changes is also projected. However, there isconsiderable uncertainty involved with these future projections, a critical issue thatrequires further investigation of the hydrological processes involved as well as thedevelopment of higher resolution climate models.Based on these results, BC Hydro is building on the project's success to­date byextending the agreement with PCIC for a second phase lasting another four yearsbeyond December 2010.

PCIC UPDATE Volume 3 Number 4 • June 2010

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 1

INSIDE THISISSUEPCIC Staff Listing .... 2Perspective: Messagefrom the Director................................. 2Thanks, Dave! ......... 3Project Focus:Research Plan forRegional ClimateImpacts................................. 4FutureGrid 2010................................. 5PNW Climate ScienceConference ............. 6Ben KangasniemiRetires from BCEnvironment................................. 6Other PCIC News................................. 7

PCIC­BC Hydro Joint Workshop Held

PCIC Lead Hydrologist Markus Schnorbus presentspreliminary project results during the joint workshop withBC Hydro April 20, 2010.

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 2

PCIC STAFFDave Rodenhuis, President & CEO/Director250­472­5174; dhuis@uvic.caAndrew Weaver, Senior Scientist250­472­4006; weaver@ocean.seos.uvic.caCassbreea Dewis, Administrative Officer250­472­4791; cdewis@uvic.caLeslie Gallacher, Administrative Assistant250­472­4682; lgallach@uvic.caKatrina Bennett, Hydrologist250­472­4484; kbennett@uvic.caAnne Berland, Research Assistant250­472­5591; ajrb@uvic.caDavid Bronaugh, Programmer/Analyst250­472­4291; bronaugh@uvic.caGerd Bürger, Analyst, Regional Climate Impacts250­472­4683; gbuerger@uvic.caHailey Eckstrand, Research Assistant250­472­5591; haileye@uvic.caJames Hiebert, Programmer/Analyst250­721­4521; hiebert@uvic.caGreg Maruszeczka, Webmaster/Editor250­472­5592; gmarus@uvic.caTrevor Murdock, Climate Scientist250­472­4681; tmurdock@uvic.caPaul Nienaber, Programmer/Analyst250­472­4291; phox@uvic.caMarkus Schnorbus, Hydrologist250­853­3502; mschnorb@uvic.caAndres Soux, Climatologist250­472­5225; asoux@uvic.caDerek van der Kamp, Research Assistant250­472­4003; derek.vanderkamp@gmail.comArelia Werner, Hydrologist250­853­3246; wernera@uvic.ca

Pacific Climate Impacts ConsortiumC173 Sedgewick BuildingUniversity of VictoriaPO Box 1700 STN CSCVictoria, British ColumbiaCanada V8W 2Y2

TELEPHONE (250) 721­6236FAX (250) 721­7217

EMAIL climate@uvic.caWEBSITE www.PacificClimate.org

PCIC UPDATE is issued quarterly inSeptember, December, March and June.

Editor: Greg Maruszeczka

PERSPECTIVE:Message from the Director

(Continued on Page 3)

As I face the summer season, there istime to think about the future of PCIC. Themajor PCIC Themes have beenaddressed and there is now a track recordand resident expertise in Regional ClimateImpacts and Hydrologic Impacts. A starthas been made in Climate Analysis andMonitoring. PCIC is focused onquantitative estimates of the impacts ofclimate change for adaptation while oursister organization, the Pacific Institute forClimate Solutions (PICS), is focused on

policy issues and climate solutions. In this context I want toacknowledge and thank Ben Kangasniemi, who is the Chair of ourProgram Advisory Committee (PAC) as well as PICS Liaison.During the past five years Ben has been a valuable colleague andpathfinder as PICS and PCIC came to life. So far, so good. Butwhere do we go from here? What’s the long­term view?First, PCIC needs to maintain its focus on the physical climatesystem in BC and Pacific North America, and support planning andactions that seek adaptation to the impacts of climate variabilityand change. The collaboration with the academic researchcommunity and our location at the University of Victoria is anessential part of that objective.Having built that concept, PCIC needs to strengthen its deliverysystem to users who need climate information, climate data, andclimate impact scenarios that extend out into the next 100 years.These users are the businesses, organizations, and institutionswhose investments will be affected by future climate variability andchange. Mother Nature has made them climate stakeholders.These stakeholders exist in every major socio­economic sector ofthe province, starting with water resources and power generation,and including ecosystems and community infrastructure. Theseare identified in the Research Plan for Regional Climate Impacts(see page 4).Where is this taking us? I believe our effectiveness at conveyingour estimates of climate impacts depends increasingly on anevaluation of the economic consequences of these changes. Thisis not a new direction; it is an extension of what PCIC is doing now,and it is a way of communicating our message on the necessity ofadaptation. If so, PCIC will need to expand the consortium andresident expertise without losing its focus.

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 3

(Continued from Page 2)Finally, I would like to state a concern. PCICstrength lies in its unique position in the gapbetween academic research and practicalapplications. PCIC must resist the allure ofacademic research, as well as avoid a dependenceon short­term contract work. It is something in­between. Our commitment is to targetedresearch—the application of climate researchtechnology to create benefits that protectinvestments—to prepare for adaptation to climatevariability and change.

With all this in mind, the time has come to look fornew leadership at the PCIC consortium. Seniorstaff members know what can be achieved with afocused effort and they know what is needed tomove forward. A new President and CEO will takethe lead in September. Together with a change inleadership of the Program Advisory Committee andthe continued interest of the corporate Board ofDirectors, he will guide the evolution of PCIC intothe future.

As we transition now to new leadership in September we want you to remember that we are all sincerelygrateful for the energy and dedication you’ve brought to PCIC and to our professional lives — PCIC Staff

Thanks, Dave!

Dave Rodenhuis

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 4

Project Focus: Research Plan for Regional Climate ImpactsPCIC’s Regional Climate Impacts (RCI) Themereached an important milestone recently with thepublication of the Research Plan for RegionalClimate Impacts, co­authored by Trevor Murdockand Gerd Bürger. The research plan is a blueprintof PCIC’s targeted research under the RCI Theme,structured around the following four components:1) User Needs Assessment; 2) Regional ClimateChange; 3) Impacts on Communities, Ecosystemsand Water Resources; 4) Products and Services.The objective of the RCI Theme is to deliverregional projections of future climate for thepurpose of aiding adaptation to climate changeimpacts affecting communities, ecosystems andwater resources. The research questions that areaddressed through projects in this theme aremotivated by the specific needs of an identifieduser­stakeholder.This stakeholder­driven focus has been aprominent feature of all PCIC projects to­date, butin the RCI Theme it takes on an addedimportance. The theme targets a wide range ofstakeholder groups with a diverse set of needsthat tend to change over time.For this reason, the RCI Research Planemphasizes User Needs Assessment as animportant starting point in the implementation of

PCIC projects. This involves a series of outreachactivities to identify the particular vulnerabilities ofeach sector and discover how best to addressuser requirements and inform adaptationstrategies. At the same time these events alsoprovide opportunities for direct knowledge transferto users, so that stakeholder groups have achance to learn more about climate change. Whatis learned through these activities will beexpanded upon by conducting user needsassessment workshops.Another important outcome of User NeedsAssessment is the identification of ‘extramuralchampions’: local experts in a particular sectoraffected by climate change who act as a primaryinterface for conducting collaborative work withPCIC.The second component identified in the RCIResearch Plan is an assessment of the varioustools and techniques to generate future climateprojections from global climate models, regionalclimate models and statistical techniques.Numerous research groups produce methods fordownscaling (e.g., EDS, TreeGen, BCSD). TheRCI Research Plan details projects to evaluateand inter­compare these available techniques forunderstanding regional climate change impacts. Acrucial part of this component is quantifying the

Figure showing PCIC and stakeholder engagement through the four Regional Climate Impacts Theme components defined inthe RCI Research Plan.

(Continued on Page 5)

PCIC’s sister organization, the Pacific Institute forClimate Solutions (PICS), hosted its annual forum inVancouver June 14–15. This year's forum featuredconstructive debate surrounding BC's futureelectricity regime.The two­day forum titled “FutureGrid: BC’s EnergyOptions in a Changing Environment” provided anopportunity for informed debate among energyexperts, climate change researchers and the public.A key question was raised: should BC expand itselectricity production and become a major energyexporter, as laid out in the province’s Clean EnergyAct?Much discussion centred on the related question:under what conditions should BC become a majorexporter of electricity? Led by UBC ProfessorGeorge Hoberg, the session’s findings were distilledinto six principles: conditions would have to be 1)economically advantageous, 2) reliable, 3) lead togreenhouse gas reductions, 4) respectful of FirstNations rights and title, 5) foster public legitimacyand promote sustainability, and 6) be reversible.These concepts formed the basis of intensediscussion at a special public panel event, attendedby over 230 people.Alan Hamlet of the University of Washington’sClimate Impacts Group co­authored a presentation

with PCIC on “Effects of Climate Change onStreamflow and Energy Supply and Demand in thePacific Northwest: Implications for TransboundaryWater Management”.FutureGrid is the second annual forum in the PICSforum series. Last year’s forum was “DecodingCarbon Pricing: Achieving a Low Carbon Society inBritish Columbia.”

PICS Hosts FutureGrid 2010 Forum in Vancouver

Public Forum – BC: A Clean Energy Exporting Powerhouse?Panelists (Left to Right) Vaughn Palmer (Columnist, VancouverSun), Josh Paterson (Staff Counsel, WestCoast EnvironmentalLaw), Judith Sayers (Hupacasath First Nation), Paul Kariya,(Executive Director, Independent Power Producers Associationof BC), George Hoberg (Professor, UBC) and Tyseer Aboulnasr(Dean of Science, UBC). Photo courtesy of Ivan Watson.

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 5

uncertainty inherent in model projections to ensurescientific credibility as well as relevance to risk­based decision­making.The third component, Impacts on Communities,Ecosystems and Water Resources, producesquantitative estimates of climate change throughthe collaborative targeted research from the UserNeeds Assessment while considering the efficacyof the techniques evaluated during the RegionalClimate Change component. The primary goal isto “build capacity” within stakeholder groups foraddressing their own needs and making effectiveuse of PCIC products and services.Finally, the delivery of Products and Services is alogical extension to the quantification of regional

climate change and the culmination of thisprocess. This final component to RCI projectsgoes beyond projections of future temperature andprecipitation, seeking to estimate the impacts oncommunities, ecosystems and water resources insupport of stakeholder needs for planning anddecision­making.“PCIC consistently focuses on the physicalsciences,” notes PCIC’s Trevor Murdock, “but inorder to take this to the next stage, impacts, weneed involvement and contributions from thestakeholders themselves. The RCI Theme is not arestaurant where you can sit down and order aplate of future impacts with a side of downscaling.It’s more like a community kitchen.”

(Continued from Page 4)

Ben Kangasniemi, Acting Manager of the Scienceand Adaptation Section of the BC Climate ActionSecretariat, has retired after a successful careerspanning 34 years with the BC Ministry ofEnvironment.Through his position at the Climate Action Secretariatand also as Chair of PCIC's Program AdvisoryCommittee (PAC) Ben has exerted an extraordinaryinfluence on PCIC since its inception. In fact, heconceived of and has been a tireless advocate forthe "consortium of stakeholders" organizationalmodel on which PCIC is based, recognizing the needfor a single entity around which the diverse andscattered users of climate information couldcoalesce.Ben was also instrumental in the development of thePCIC Strategic Plan and the recently publishedResearch Plan for Regional Climate Impacts. He has

a stakeholder's perspective, advising PCIC tocontinue engaging with users and further developingthe resident capacity to prepare them for climatechange adaptation.

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 6

PCIC co­sponsored the first Pacific NorthwestClimate Science Conference on June 15­16, hostedby the Portland State University in Portland, Oregon.PCIC's Trevor Murdock and Gerd Bürger presentedthree papers: "Regional Climate Model Results in thePacific Northwest and the Upper Columbia Basin"authored by Trevor Murdock, "Modelling 2050sClimate Impacts to Streamflow and Snowpack inBritish Columbia Watersheds" authored by KatrinaBennett, Markus Schnorbus and Arelia Werner, and"Present and Future Steamflow of the ColumbiaRiver Above Donald" authored by Gerd Bürger.The conference was the most comprehensiveconference to­date concerning the science of climatevariability and change in the Pacific Northwest andfeatured some 50 presentations in following general

topic areas:• Past, Present, Future Climate in the PacificNorthwest;• Climate Impacts on Hydrology and Fresh Water,Terrestrial/Aquatic/Marine Species and Ecosystemsas well as Managed Resources and HumanSystems;• Greenhouse Gas Sinks and Fluxes;• Human Responses and Policy Initiatives.Other conference sponsors included several USfederal and state agencies as well as a number ofclimate­related research institutions such as theUniversity of Washington’s Climate Impacts Group,Idaho’s EPSCoR Program and Oregon StateUniversity’s Oregon Climate Change ResearchInstitute.

PCIC Co­sponsors First PNW Climate Science Conference

Ben Kangasniemi Retires from BC Environment

(Left to Right) Dave Rodenhuis, Cassbreea Dewis, BenKangasniemi and Trevor Murdock during Ben's farewell party inVictoria June 30, 2010. Photo courtesy of Meghan Stothers.

Thank you for your continued interest in the Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium. We are committed tomaintaining PCIC as a stakeholder­driven consortium, rooted in the academic research community, yetlooking outward. Hence, we welcome and value feedback from researchers and stakeholders either throughour online feedback form at http://www.pacificclimate.org/aboutus/contactus/feedback/ or by contacting usdirectly via email at climate@uvic.ca, or telephone (250) 721­6236.

PCIC UPDATE ­ Page 7

New Staff Member at PCICLeslie Gallacher has joined PCICfor one year as administrativeassistant while MelissaNottingham is on maternity leave.She is responsible for preparingadministrative forms and travelexpense reports, maintaining andreconciling financial records,supporting the Pacific ClimateSeminar Series and visitors to PCIC as well as thegeneral administrative functions of the office.Leslie has extensive experience in administrativeroles, most recently with the federally funded non­profit organization Canadian Council on Learning.

PCIC Departing HydrologistAfter a four­year term as PCIC Hydrologist, KatrinaBennett will be leaving in September 2010 topursue doctoral studies at the University of AlaskaFairbanks.Based in the department of Civil andEnvironmental Engineering, Katrina will be advisedby Prof. John Walsh and Prof. Jessica Cherry atthe International Arctic Research Centre. The focusof her research will be on the impacts of climatechange on the hydrology of northern watersheds,with particular emphasis on changing snowpatterns and processes. Katrina's studies willinclude coursework in the areas of Permafrost,Arctic Engineering, Groundwater Dynamics,Numerical Modeling and ParameterizationMethods, Arctic Hydrology and more.

July 9 Party Honouring PCIC DirectorPCIC is hosting an open­house celebration at theUniversity of Victoria’s University Club on July 9,2010 in honour of PCIC Director Dave Rodenhuisfor his four years of leadership and service.Festivities start at 3:30 pm Pacific Time, withhonorary remarks at 4:00 pm. R.S.V.P. to Leslie atPCIC by email (lgallach@uvic.ca) or telephone(250) 472­4682.

Other PCIC News

Katrina Bennett in front of instrumentation at Marmot Creekbasin, Alberta. Photo courtesy of Scott Jackson.