PCCP Market Commentary Q3 2017...
Transcript of PCCP Market Commentary Q3 2017...
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PCCP Market Commentary
Demographic Shifts Create Winning and Losing Markets
Third Quarter 2017
For the last fifty years, a growing working age population and significant technological advancement have provided substantial tailwinds for the U.S. economy. An analysis of recent economic data reveals the beginning of a shift in these long‐term trends, with two key demographic changes poised to significantly impact real estate markets: the slowing growth of the U.S. working age population and the continued movement of the population from rural to urban areas. With populations declining in more than half of all U.S. counties, these larger forces are leading to increased growth in some U.S. markets, while leaving others flat or in decline. Understanding how these demographic changes will affect submarkets across the country is essential for developing an effective real estate strategy.
In the last half century, a working age population boom and rapid technological development drove the U.S. economy to unprecedented heights. The country’s working age population nearly doubled in the period, expanding from 108 million in 1965, to 205 million in 2016. Labor supply growth was particularly strong in the 1970’s, as baby boomers and women entered the work force. Although growth of the working age population began to taper in the 1990’s, advances in technology countered any negative effect on the economy by increasing productivity. Thus, despite slowing population growth in recent decades, a technology‐driven increase in productivity continued to fuel a strong economy.
Recent economic data indicate a change in these favorable trends. For the first time since World War II, the working age population is experiencing substantially slower growth as baby boomers retire at a faster rate than Millennials are entering the workforce. This sluggish growth is expected to continue for the foreseeable future, with working age population growth projected to average only 0.5% through 2024 (assuming constant levels of immigration). In addition, the skills of today’s labor force are unable to keep pace with technological development, lowering worker productivity, and eliminating the technology‐driven increase in productivity that had counteracted slower population growth in recent decades.
While working population growth stagnates, a second demographic change is also impacting the U.S. Continuing a shift that began more than 100 years ago, a substantial number of workers are moving from rural areas to urban and suburban areas. Since 2010, over 54% of U.S. counties have experienced a decline in population, resulting in a large percentage of the nation’s real estate markets facing challenging demographics.
Births Underlying Each Generation
PEW Research Center / U.S. Dept. of Health and Human Services National Center for Health Statistics
Net Population Change by County (2010-2016)
U.S. Census Bureau
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At PCCP, we believe that population redistribution, along with flat working age population growth, will create predictable advantages/disadvantages for real estate markets. Markets such as Raleigh, Austin, Charlotte and Atlanta will have an opportunity to outperform, as the working age population continues to grow, and continued net migration into these areas spurs demand for all real estate asset classes. More mature, gateway markets, such as Boston, Los Angeles, and New York City are projected to remain flat with respect to population growth and age changes. Finally, markets such as Chicago and Philadelphia are projected to underperform on our measures, as these cities will face headwinds from slower or declining working age population growth.
While identifying growth markets is a foundation for investment planning, investing in real estate is not quite as simple as picking a growing market. Although investing in a market with strong growth prospects generally allows investors to take more risks, a deep dive into the data shows that working age population growth varies significantly by county or submarket within each specific market. For example, Atlanta is projected to experience strong working age population growth over the next eight years, but several individual counties in the Atlanta metro are still expected to face a decline in working age population growth. On the other hand, the Chicago
metro as a whole is expected to experience a decline in working age population growth, but certain counties such as Kane and Kendall will continue to grow.
Although it is clear these demographic shifts will benefit some markets more than others, investment strategies can be tailored to find success in a variety of market conditions. In high growth markets, it is possible to add less relative value and still make attractive returns as economic growth lifts the entire market. On the other hand, investors can also find compelling investment opportunities in flat or even declining markets, where assets with best‐in‐class potential may be able to bear the weight of softer economic conditions, and still generate attractive returns. In these flat or declining markets, we believe that quick and efficient execution of a value‐add business plan is key to a successful outcome.
As real estate investors, we believe that while the old adage of “location, location, location” remains true, it is more important to have a thorough understanding of the larger demographic and economic trends at work in particular real estate markets. Consideration of the two demographic trends described above not only reveal specific high growth markets and those in decline, but indicate the investment potential of submarkets within those larger markets as well. At the same time, when evaluating markets affected by these larger trends, investment strategy should be considered carefully as well. While investment in growth markets can lower risk, with the right strategy, compelling investments can also be found in static or down markets.
SOURCES: “US Census Bureau”, CoStar’s Location Quotient tool; CNBC “Here’s why Trump’s 3 percent growth target doesn’t add up”, The CRE “2016‐2017 Top Ten Issues Affecting Real Estate”; FRED Economic Data; Bureau of Labor Statistics; Moody’s Analytics. Our thanks to PCCP’s Matt Cochran for his help in drafting this quarterly newsletter.
Bryan Thornton Greg Eberhardt Steve Chase K.C. Kriegel [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] (415) 732‐7649 (310) 414‐2004 (646) 308‐2101 (646) 308‐2102
Legal Notice: The information contained herein is not to be construed as investment advice. Past performance is not an indication of future results. This information does not constitute an offer, or the solicitation of an offer, of any investment. Such offers are made only by the Private Placement Memorandum(s) related to such investment and only to persons and in circumstances in which such offers may legally be made without violation of U.S. federal or state securities laws or applicable laws and regulations. PCCP, LLC is registered as an investment adviser under the United States Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended.
Projected Working Age Population Growth by Metro (2017-2025)
CoStar Portfolio Strategy / Moody’s Analytics As of 16Q4