P/C Insurance Industry Overview & Outlooklosscontrolforum.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Dr... ·...

P/C Insurance Industry Overview & Outlook

Alexander & Schmidt Loss Control Forum 2016 Portland, ME

September 14, 2016

Steven N. Weisbart, Ph.D., CLU, Senior Vice President & Chief Economist Insurance Information Institute ♦ 110 William Street ♦ New York, NY 10038

Tel: 212.346.5540 ♦ Cell: 917.494.5945 ♦ [email protected] ♦ www.iii.org

2

2013-15 Were Three Good Years in a Row

2016 Could Be the Fourth

12/01/09 - 9pm

2

First, the Good News about the P/C Insurance Industry:

12/01/09 - 9pm eSlide – P6466 – The Financial Crisis and the Future of the P/C

3

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Net Premium Growth: Annual Change, 1971—2016F

1975-78 1984-87 2000-03

Shaded areas denote “hard market” periods Sources: A.M. Best (historical and forecast), ISO, Insurance Information Institute.

Net Written Premiums Fell by 0.7% in 2007, by 2.0% in 2008, and by 4.2% in 2009, the First 3-Year Decline Since 1930-33.

2016F: 4.5% 2015: 3.4% 2014: 4.2% 2013: 4.6% 2012: 4.3%

16 Years 16 Years?

2016-19


4

P/C Insurance Industry Combined Ratio, 2001–2015*

* Excludes Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers 2008--2014. Including M&FG, 2008=105.1, 2009=100.7, 2010=102.4, 2011=108.1; 2012:=103.2; 2013: = 96.1; 2014: = 97.0. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO.

95.7

99.3

100.8

106.3

102.4

96.7 97.2 97.8

101.0

92.6

100.8

98.4

100.1

107.5

115.8

90

100

110

120

01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Best Combined

Ratio Since 1949 (87.6)

Higher CAT Losses, Shrinking Reserve Releases, Toll of Soft Market

Insurers Paid Nearly $1.16 for Every $1 in

Earned Premiums

Heavy Use of Reinsurance Lowered Net

Losses


5

$13.0

$11.3

$3.9$14.8

$11.9

$6.3

$35.8

$7.8 $1

6.8

$34.7

$10.9

$7.7

$30.1

$11.8

$14.9

$34.6

$36.1

$13.1

$15.5

$15.2

$4.9

$75.7

$14.4

$5.0 $8.2

$38.9

$9.1

$27.2

$0

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

89 92 95 98 01 04 07 10 13 16:Q1

U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses

*Estimate through 3/31/16 in 2015 dollars. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01 ($25.9B 2011 dollars). Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B ($15.6B in 2011 dollars.) Sources: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

2013/14/15 were welcome respites from 2011/12—the latter being among the costliest years for insured disaster losses in US history.

The longer-term trend is for more costly events.

2012 was the 3rd most expensive year ever for

insured CAT losses

($ Billions, $ 2015)

12/01/09 - 9pm

5

12/01/09 - 9pm

6

Combined Ratio Points Associated with Catastrophe Losses: 1960 – 2015E*

*2010s represent 2010-2015E. Notes: Private carrier losses only. Excludes loss adjustment expenses and reinsurance reinstatement premiums. Figures are adjusted for losses ultimately paid by foreign insurers and reinsurers. Source: ISO (1960-2009); A.M. Best (2010-15E) Insurance Information Institute.

0.4 1.2

0.4 0.8 1.3

0.30.4 0.7 1.5

1.0

0.4

0.4 0.71.8

1.1

0.6 1.4 2.0

1.3 2.0

0.5

0.5 0.7

3.0

1.2 2.1

8.8

2.3

5.9

3.3

2.8

1.0

3.6

2.9

1.6

5.4

1.6

3.3

3.3

8.1

2.7

1.6

5.0

2.6

4.6

9.6

8.0

3.5 4.0

3.13.6

0.9

0.11.1

1.1

0.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960

1962

1964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

The Catastrophe Loss Component of Private Insurer Losses Has Increased Sharply in Recent Decades

Avg. CAT Loss Component of the Combined Ratio

by Decade

1960s: 1.04 1970s: 0.85 1980s: 1.31 1990s: 3.39 2000s: 3.52 2010s: 5.46*

Combined Ratio Points Catastrophe losses as a share of all losses

reached a record high in 2011

P/C Industry Net Income After Taxes 1991–2015

n  2006 ROE = 12.7% n  2007 ROE = 10.9% n  2008 ROE = 0.1% n  2009 ROE = 5.0% n  2010 ROE = 6.6% n  2011 ROAS1 = 3.5% n  2012 ROAS1 = 5.9% n  2013 ROAS1 = 10.2% n  2014 ROAS1 = 8.4% n  2015:ROAS = 8.4%

• ROE figures are GAAP; 1Return on avg. surplus. Excluding Mortgage & Financial Guaranty insurers yields a 8.2% ROAS in 2014, 9.8% ROAS in 2013, 6.2% ROAS in 2012, 4.7% ROAS for 2011, 7.6% for 2010 and 7.4% for 2009. Sources: A.M. Best, ISO; Insurance Information Institute.

$14,178

$5,840

$19,316

$10,870 $20,598

$24,404 $36,819

$30,773

$21,865

$3,046

$30,029

$62,496

$3,043

$35,204

$19,456 $3

3,522

$63,784

$55,501

$56,600

$38,501

$20,559

$44,155

$65,777

-$6,970

$28,672

-$10,000

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

$ Millions

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Profitability Peaks & Troughs in the P/C Insurance Industry, 1975 – 2016F

*Profitability = P/C insurer ROEs. 2011-14 figures are estimates based on ROAS data. Note: Data for 2008-2014 exclude mortgage and financial guaranty insurers. Source: Insurance Information Institute; NAIC, ISO, A.M. Best, Conning

1977:19.0% 1987:17.3%

1997:11.6% 2006:12.7%

1984: 1.8% 1992: 4.5% 2001: -1.2%

10 Years

9 Years

History suggests next ROE peak will be in 2016-2017,

but that seems unlikely

ROE

1975: 2.4%

2013 9.8%

2014 8.4%

2015=8.4% 2016F=6.3%

9

Return on Net Worth (RNW) Largest Lines: 2005-2014 Average

6.2

3.8

8.0

6.3 6.4 6.9

12.8

6.7

15.6

11.9

2.2 2.8

0

4

8

12

16P

P A

uto

Tota

l

Hom

eow

ners

MP

Oth

er L

iabi

lity

Wor

kers

Com

p

Com

mer

cial

MP

Com

m A

uto

Tota

l

Inla

nd M

arin

e

Alli

ed L

ines

Fire

Med

Pro

f Lia

b

A &

H

Farm

MP

Source: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.

Room for improvement:

Can Loss Control help?

Percent

Commercial lines have tended to be more profitable than personal lines over the past decade


10

RNW All Lines, 2005-2014 Average, Vary Widely by State and Region

11.0%

10.6%

7.3%

7.3%

7.1%

6.3%

8.9%

1.7%

6.8%7.5%

11.9%

11.3%

8.3%

6.9%

11.5%

7.8%

13.2%

8.8%

7.5%

7.4%

3.4%

7.0%

10.5%

10.0%

6.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

NM TX AZ

OK

WY ID UT

MT

CO

WA

OR

CA

NV

OH

WI IL IN MI

ND

SD IA MN

KS

NE

MO

Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute

Southwest Mountain Far West Great Plains Great Lakes


11

RNW All Lines, 2005-2014 Average, Vary Widely by State and Region

13.0%

11.7%

11.1%

10.8%

10.6%

7.1%

6.5%

6.2%

5.1%

4.1%

-7.4%

-9.4%

8.9%

7.8%

5.5%

5.1%

4.7%

14.0%

13.3%

11.7%

10.9%

9.9%

9.6%

19.0%

19.9%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%FL VA

NC

SC

WV

AR

KY

TN GA

AL

MS

LA MD

PA NJ

NY

DE

VT

ME

NH

MA RI

CT

AK HI

Sources: Sources: NAIC; Insurance Information Institute.

Southeast Mid-Atlantic New England


12

Policyholder Surplus, 2006:Q4–2016:Q1

Sources: ISO, A.M .Best.

($ Billions) $487.1

$496.6

$512.8

$521.8

$478.5

$455.6

$437.1 $463.0 $490.8 $511.5 $540.7

$530.5

$544.8

$559.2

$559.1

$538.6

$550.3

$567.8

$583.5

$586.9

$607.7

$614.0

$624.4 $653.4

$671.6

$673.9

$674.7

$671.7

$672.4

$663.9

$673.7

$676.4

$662.0

$570.7

$566.5

$505.0

$515.6

$517.9

$400

$450

$500

$550

$600

$650

$700

$750

06:Q4

07:Q1

07:Q2

07:Q3

07:Q4

08:Q1

08:Q2

08:Q3

08:Q4

09:Q1

09:Q2

09:Q3

09:Q4

10:Q1

10:Q2

10:Q3

10:Q4

11:Q1

11:Q2

11:Q3

11:Q4

12:Q1

12:Q2

12:Q3

12:Q4

13:Q1

13:Q2

13:Q3

13:Q4

14:Q1

14:Q2

14:Q3

14:Q4

15:Q1

15:Q2

15:Q3

15:Q4

16:Q1

2007:Q3 Pre-Crisis Peak

Surplus as of 12/31/15 stood at

$673.7B

2010:Q1 data includes $22.5B of paid-in capital from a holding company parent for one insurer’s investment in a non-insurance business.

The industry now has $1 of surplus for every $0.75 of NPW, close to the strongest claims-paying status in its history.

Drop due to near-record 2011 CAT losses

The P/C insurance industry entered 2016 in very strong financial condition.

Modest Economic Growth in 2016-17

Should Increase the Exposure Base and Premium Volume

13

12/01/09 - 9pm

13

Both Commercial and Personal Lines Should Benefit

12/01/09 - 9pm

14

Real U.S. Quarterly GDP Growth Since the “Great Recession

Data are quarterly changes at annualized rates. Sources: US Department of Commerce, at http://www.bea.gov/national/index.htm#gdp ; Insurance Information Institute.

-1.5%

2.9%

0.8%

4.6%

2.3%

1.6% 2.5%

0.1% 0.8%

3.1% 4.0%

-1.2%

4.0% 5.0%

2.3%

2.0% 2.6%

2.0%

0.9%

0.8% 1.2%

3.6%

2.5%2.7%3.9%

1.7%3.9%

1.3%

2.8%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

09:3Q

09:4Q

10:1Q

10:2Q

10:3Q

10:4Q

11:1Q

11:2Q

11:3Q

11:4Q

12:1Q

12:2Q

12:3Q

12:4Q

13:1Q

13:2Q

13:3Q

13:4Q

14:1Q

14:2Q

14:3Q

14:4Q

15:1Q

15:2Q

15:3Q

15:4Q

16:1Q

16:2Q

16:3Q

Since the Great Recession ended, even 3% real growth (at an annual rate) in a quarter has been unusual. Through 2016:Q2, it happened only 7

times in 28 quarters—and not once in the most recent 7 quarters.

“Advance” estimate

“GDP now” estimate as of August 16

Quarterly US Real GDP for 2016-17: August 2016 Forecasts

2.1

1.8 1.7

1.8 1.7

1.6

2.8

2.3 2.2

2.3 2.2

2.1

3.8

2.8

2.6 2.6 2.5

2.6

1.5

1.75

2

2.25

2.5

2.75

3

3.25

3.5

3.75

4

2016:Q3 2016:Q4 2017:Q1 2017:Q2 2017:Q3 2017:Q4

10 Most Pessimistic Median 10 Most Optimistic


15

Real GDP Growth Rate (%)

Many of the 53 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey expect good growth in the third quarter of 2016 and slower growth in 2017.

Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/16); Insurance Information Institute

State-by-State Leading Indicators through December 2016

Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia at www.philadelphiafed.org/index.cfm , released August 1, 2016; Insurance Information Institute. Next release is August 29, 2016

12/01/09 - 9pm

16

Near-term growth forecasts

vary widely by state.

Strongest growth =

dark green (1.5%-4.5%);

then light green; then gray;

weakest = red

ISM Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), January 2010-July 2016

Sources: Institute for Supply Management; Insurance Information Institute.

The Manufacturing Sector Expanded for 68 of the 72 Months from January 2010 Through December 2015.

Manufacturing Contracted in 2015:Q4 and 2016:Q1 but is Expanding Again.

58

.3

57

.1

60

.4

59

.6

57

.8

55

.3

55

.1

55

.2

55

.3 56

.9 58

.2

58

.5

60

.8

61

.4

59

.7

59

.7

54

.2 55

.8

51

.4

52

.5

52

.5

51

.8

52

.2

53

.1

54

.1

51

.9 53

.3

54

.1

52

.5

50

.2

50

.5

50

.7

51

.6

51

.7

49

.9

50

.2

53

.1

54

.2

51

.3

50

.7

49

.0

50

.9

55

.4

55

.7

56

.2

56

.4

57

.0

56

.5

51

.3 5

3.2

5

3.7

5

4.9

5

5.4

5

5.3

57

.1 5

9.0

5

6.6

5

9.0

5

8.7

5

5.5

5

3.5

5

2.9

5

1.5

5

1.5

52

.8

53

.5

52

.7

51

.1

50

.2

50

.1

48

.6

48

.0

48

.2 49

.5

51

.8

50

.8

51

.3 5

3.2

5

2.6

45

50

55

60

65

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

Jan

11

Jul 1

1

Jan

12

Jul 1

2

Jan

13

Jul 1

3

Jan

14

Jul 1

4

Jan

15

Jul 1

5

Jan

16

Jul 1

6

As of July, 5 Consecutive

Months of Expansion

Index

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), January 2010-July 2016

Sources: Institute for Supply Management via https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/NMFCI.txt; Insurance Information Institute.

The Non-Manufacturing (Services) Sector Expanded in Every Month After January 2010. Compared to 2014-15,

the Pace of Expansion Has Slowed in 2016 But Not Ended.

49

.6

50

.8

53

.2

55

.6

55

.5

54

.6

54

.8

52

.7 53

.6

55

.3 5

6.7

5

7.0

5

7.2

5

7.3

5

5.8

5

5.3

5

5.0

5

4.3

5

3.6

5

3.6

5

2.4

5

2.8

5

3.1

5

2.8

5

5.7

5

5.5

5

5.5

5

4.5

5

4.4

5

3.8

5

2.4

5

3.0

5

4.7

5

4.2

55

.1 56

.0

55

.1

55

.6

55

.1

53

.8

54

.0

54

.1 55

.0

56

.7

53

.8

54

.6

54

.1

53

.4 54

.4

52

.6 5

3.9

55

.2 56

.3

56

.7

57

.3

58

.0

57

.9

56

.3

59

.3

56

.9

56

.9

57

.1

56

.9

57

.5

55

.9

56

.2

59

.6

58

.3

56

.7

58

.3

56

.6

55

.8

53

.5

53

.4 54

.5 55

.7

52

.9

56

.5

55

.5

47

50

53

56

59

62

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

Jan

11

Jul 1

1

Jan

12

Jul 1

2

Jan

13

Jul 1

3

Jan

14

Jul 1

4

Jan

15

Jul 1

5

Jan

16

Jul 1

6

Index

455

654

423

555

834

277

514

524

636

556 59

4

525

627

829

736

823

570

752

576

846

587

460

765

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2011

:Q1

2011

:Q2

2011

:Q3

2011

:Q4

2012

:Q1

2012

:Q2

2012

:Q3

2012

:Q4

2013

:Q1

2013

:Q2

2013

:Q3

2013

:Q4

2014

:Q1

2014

:Q2

2014

:Q3

2014

:Q4

2015

:Q1

2015

:Q2

2015

:Q3

2015

:Q4

2016

:Q1

2016

:Q2

2016

:Q3

*

Nonfarm Employment, Quarterly Change, 2011 – 2016*

Thousands

After a strong 2014-15, the pace of job growth has slowed somewhat. *Seasonally adjusted; 2016:Q3 is July projected to the full quarter. June and July 2016 data are preliminary Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute

12/01/09 - 9pm

19


20

Unemployment and Underemployment Rates: Still Falling

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan00

Jan01

Jan02

Jan03

Jan04

Jan05

Jan06

Jan07

Jan08

Jan09

Jan10

Jan11

Jan12

Jan13

Jan14

Jan-15

Jan-16

"Headline" Unemployment Rate U-3

Unemployment + UnderemploymentRate U-6

“Headline” unemployment was 4.9% in July

2016. 4.5% to 5.5% is

“normal.”

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

U-6 was 9.7% in July 2016.

January 2000 through July 2016, Seasonally Adjusted (%)

Based on the latest readings, it appears that the job market is now close to “normal”

12/01/09 - 9pm

20

U-6 went from 8.0% in March 2007 to 17.5%

in October 2009

For U-6, 8.0% to 9.5% is “normal.”

Labor Market Slack: Elevated Number of Involuntary Part-time Workers


21

In less than 18 months, 4.5 million additional people were involuntarily working part time

The “normal” range

(since 1992)

July 2016: 5.94 million


22

Number of “Discouraged Workers”: Elevated, but Dropping Jan 1994 – July 2016

Notes: Recessions indicated by gray shaded columns. Data are seasonally adjusted. Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates).

0100200300400500600700800900

1,0001,1001,2001,3001,400

'94 '97 '00 '03 '07 '10 '13In recent good times, the number of discouraged workers ranged from

200,000-400,000 (1995-2000) or from 300,000-500,000 (2002-2007).

Latest reading: 591,000

in July 2016.

Thousands A “discouraged worker” in a month did not actively look for work in the prior month for reasons such as --thinks no work available, --could not find work, --lacks schooling or training, --thinks employer thinks too young or old, and other types of discrimination.

Normal

Full-time vs. Part-time Employment, Quarterly, 2003-2016:Q2

110

112

114

116

118

120

122

124

2003

.120

03.2

2003

.320

03.4

2004

.120

04.2

2004

.320

04.4

2005

.120

05.2

2005

.320

05.4

2006

.120

06.2

2006

.320

06.4

2007

.120

07.2

2007

.320

07.4

2008

.120

08.2

2008

.320

08.4

2009

.120

09.2

2009

.320

09.4

2010

.120

10.2

2010

.320

10.4

2011

.120

11.2

2011

.320

11.4

2012

.120

12.2

2012

.320

12.4

2013

.120

13.2

2013

.320

13.4

2014

.120

14.2

2014

.320

14.4

2015

.120

15.2

2015

.320

15.4

2016

.120

16.2

24.0

24.5

25.0

25.5

26.0

26.5

27.0

27.5

28.0

28.5

Full-time Part-time

Data are seasonally-adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.

The Great Recession shifted employment from full-time to part-time. Full-time employment is finally above its pre-recession peak,

but part-time hasn’t receded.

Full time, millions

Part-time, millions

Recession

Recession shifted

employment growth from full-time to part-time

Pre-recession, most new jobs were full-time

New full-time peak

24

Special Topic: When Does the Next Recession Start?


25

Length of US Business Cycles, 1929–Present*

10 1116

616

8 819

50

80

3745

39

24

106

36

58

12

92

120

73

86

43

138 11 10 8

0102030405060708090

100110120

Aug1929

May1937

Feb1945

Nov1948

Jul1953

Aug1957

Apr1960

Dec1969

Nov1973

Jan1980

Jul1981

Jul1990

Mar2001

Dec2007

Month Recession Started

Contraction Expansion Following

*Through August 2016. ** Post-WW II period through end of 2001-2007 expansion. Sources: National Bureau of Economic Research; Insurance Information Institute.

Average Duration** Recession = 10.4 Mos Expansion = 60.5 Mos

Length of Expansions Greatly Exceeds

Contractions Duration (Months)

When Will the Next Recession

Start? 2018?

GDP-based Recession-Indicator Index, with data through 2016:Q1

12/01/09 - 9pm

26

Index

Source: https://www.frbatlanta.org/cqer/research/gdpbased_RII.aspx (updated May 11, 2016); I.I.I.

Likelihood of a recession remains

low (15.7%)

The plotted value for each date is based solely on information as it would have been publicly available and reported as of one quarter after the indicated date, with 2015:Q4 the last date shown on the graph. Shaded regions represent NBER-dated recessions; which were sometimes not reported until two years after a recession was determined to have ended, and were not used in any way in constructing the index.

NBER-dated recessions tend to

follow when the Index reaches 40%

The Fed’s Labor Market Conditions Index Combines 19 Labor Market Indicators

Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FRBLMCI#0

Since 1976, we’ve had a recession whenever the Index drops below -17.6. As of June 2016 the Index was at -1.9 and appeared to be heading up.


28

Labor Market Conditions Index Since the Recession Ended

Notes: Data are seasonally adjusted. The entire dataset is subject to revision, but that usually affects only the most recent 6 months. Sources: https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/FRBLMCI

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jul-09

Jan-10

Jul-10

Jan-11

Jul-11

Jan-12

Jul-12

Jan-13

Jul-13

Jan-14

Jul-14

Jan-15

Jul-15

Jan-16

Based on history of the last 40 years, there’s no recession in sight.

Decline began in November 2015.

Index Value

29

Forces Affecting Commercial Lines

ISM Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), January 2010-July 2016

Sources: Institute for Supply Management; Insurance Information Institute.

The Manufacturing Sector Expanded for 68 of the 72 Months from January 2010 Through December 2015.

Manufacturing Contracted in 2015:Q4 and 2016:Q1 but is Expanding Again.

58

.3

57

.1

60

.4

59

.6

57

.8

55

.3

55

.1

55

.2

55

.3 56

.9 58

.2

58

.5

60

.8

61

.4

59

.7

59

.7

54

.2 55

.8

51

.4

52

.5

52

.5

51

.8

52

.2

53

.1

54

.1

51

.9 53

.3

54

.1

52

.5

50

.2

50

.5

50

.7

51

.6

51

.7

49

.9

50

.2

53

.1

54

.2

51

.3

50

.7

49

.0

50

.9

55

.4

55

.7

56

.2

56

.4

57

.0

56

.5

51

.3 5

3.2

5

3.7

5

4.9

5

5.4

5

5.3

57

.1 5

9.0

5

6.6

5

9.0

5

8.7

5

5.5

5

3.5

5

2.9

5

1.5

5

1.5

52

.8

53

.5

52

.7

51

.1

50

.2

50

.1

48

.6

48

.0

48

.2 49

.5

51

.8

50

.8

51

.3 5

3.2

5

2.6

45

50

55

60

65

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

Jan

11

Jul 1

1

Jan

12

Jul 1

2

Jan

13

Jul 1

3

Jan

14

Jul 1

4

Jan

15

Jul 1

5

Jan

16

Jul 1

6

As of July, 5 Consecutive

Months of Expansion

Index

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Values > 50 Indicate Expansion), January 2010-July 2016

Sources: Institute for Supply Management via https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/NMFCI.txt; Insurance Information Institute.

The Non-Manufacturing (Services) Sector Expanded in Every Month After January 2010. Compared to 2014-15,

the Pace of Expansion Has Slowed in 2016 But Not Ended.

49

.6

50

.8

53

.2

55

.6

55

.5

54

.6

54

.8

52

.7 53

.6

55

.3 5

6.7

5

7.0

5

7.2

5

7.3

5

5.8

5

5.3

5

5.0

5

4.3

5

3.6

5

3.6

5

2.4

5

2.8

5

3.1

5

2.8

5

5.7

5

5.5

5

5.5

5

4.5

5

4.4

5

3.8

5

2.4

5

3.0

5

4.7

5

4.2

55

.1 56

.0

55

.1

55

.6

55

.1

53

.8

54

.0

54

.1 55

.0

56

.7

53

.8

54

.6

54

.1

53

.4 54

.4

52

.6 5

3.9

55

.2 56

.3

56

.7

57

.3

58

.0

57

.9

56

.3

59

.3

56

.9

56

.9

57

.1

56

.9

57

.5

55

.9

56

.2

59

.6

58

.3

56

.7

58

.3

56

.6

55

.8

53

.5

53

.4 54

.5 55

.7

52

.9

56

.5

55

.5

47

50

53

56

59

62

Jan

10

Jul 1

0

Jan

11

Jul 1

1

Jan

12

Jul 1

2

Jan

13

Jul 1

3

Jan

14

Jul 1

4

Jan

15

Jul 1

5

Jan

16

Jul 1

6

Index


32

Private Nonresidential Fixed Investment, Quarterly: Recently, a New Peak

*Quarterly, at seasonally adjusted annual rate Sources: Federal Reserve Board at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/data/PNFIC96.txt . National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

1999:Q1

2000:Q1

2001:Q1

2002:Q1

2003:Q1

2004:Q1

2005:Q1

2006:Q1

2007:Q1

2008:Q1

2009:Q1

2010:Q1

2011:Q1

2012:Q1

2013:Q1

2014:Q1

2015:Q1

2016:Q1

Recession

This is a measure of the growth of the commercial property exposure base. Business investment dipped in 2016:1H but is expected to rebound in 2016:2H. If so, commercial insurance premium volume will grow with it.

12/01/09 - 9pm

32

2016:Q1 at $2167.3 B

Many economists expect business investment to

rise in 2016

$ Billions*


33

Construction Employment, Jan. 2003–July 2016

Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. June and July are preliminary Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

The “Great Recession” and housing bust destroyed 2.3 million constructions jobs

The construction sector was a growth leader in 2014 with recovery in the housing market, private investment, and government spending. WC insurers will benefit.

Construction employment trough at 5.435 million in Jan. 2011, a 29.7% plunge from the April 2006 peak

12/01/09 - 9pm

33

Construction employment

peaked at 7.73 million in April 2006

(Thousands) Construction

employment as of July 2016 totaled 6.65

million


34

Manufacturing Employment, Jan. 2003–July 2016

Notes: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. July and June are preliminary. Sources: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Insurance Information Institute.

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Manufacturing employment shrank by 2.03 million during

the “Great Recession”

Employment in the manufacturing sector has grown slowly since the Great Recession ended. This is partly due to productivity improvements.

Manufacturing employment trough at

11.46 million in Jan. 2010.

12/01/09 - 9pm

34

Manufacturingemployment in Jan. 2003: 14.86 million

(Millions)

Manufacturing employment as

of July 2016 was 12.3 million


35

Nonfarm Payroll (Wages and Salaries): Quarterly, 2005–2016:Q2

Note: Recession indicated by gray shaded column. Data are seasonally adjusted annual rates. Sources: http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/WASCUR; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.

Billions

$5,500

$5,750

$6,000

$6,250

$6,500

$6,750

$7,000

$7,250

$7,500

$7,750

$8,000

$8,25005:Q1

05:Q2

05:Q3

05:Q4

06:Q1

06:Q2

06:Q3

06:Q4

07:Q1

07:Q2

07:Q3

07:Q4

08:Q1

08:Q2

08:Q3

08:Q4

09:Q1

09:Q2

09:Q3

09:Q4

10:Q1

10:Q2

10:Q3

10:Q4

11:Q1

11:Q2

11:Q3

11:Q4

12:Q1

12:Q2

12:Q3

12:Q4

13:Q1

13:Q2

13:Q3

13:Q4

14:Q1

14:Q2

14:Q3

14:Q4

15:Q1

15:Q2

15:Q3

15:Q4

16:Q1

16:Q2

Prior Peak was 2008:Q3 at $6.54 trillion

Latest (2016:Q2) was $8.06 trillion, a new peak--$1.83T above 2009 trough

Recent trough (2009:Q1) was $6.23 trillion, down

5.3% from prior peak

Y-o-Y Growth rates 2011:Q2 over 2010:Q2: 3.9% 2012:Q2 over 2011:Q2: 4.0% 2013:Q2 over 2012:Q2: 3.3% 2014:Q2 over 2013:Q2: 4.3% 2015:Q2 over 2014:Q2: 5.4% 2016:Q2 over 2015:Q2: 3.3%

12/01/09 - 9pm

35

36

Inflation & Claims

12/01/09 - 9pm

36

Overall Inflation Has Been Low, but Prices for Some Items that Affect Claims Are Rising Notably Faster


37

Change* in the Consumer Price Index, 2004–2016

*Monthly, year-over-year, through July 2016. Not seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institutes.

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Recession CPI

Over the last decade, prices generally rose about 2% per year.

12/01/09 - 9pm

37

For two months in 2008, led by gasoline, the

general price level was rising at a 5.5% pace

When gas prices dropped, the general price level was

briefly lower than a year prior

Lately, the CPI is rising at a 0.8%

y-o-y pace


38



-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Recession CPI CoreCPI


12/01/09 - 9pm

38

Since 2004, the core CPI never rose faster than a 3% y-o-y pace

Lately, core CPI is rising at a 2.2%

y-o-y pace


39



-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Recession CoreCPI


12/01/09 - 9pm

39

Since 2004, the core CPI never rose faster than a 3% y-o-y pace

Lately, core CPI is rising at a 2.2%

y-o-y pace


40

Price Changes* for Medical Care (the Medical CPI): 1998–2016

*Percentage change from same month in prior year; through July 2016; seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

'98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Recession MedicalCPIPrices for all medical services rose at an annual rate of 4% (and sometimes more)

until the Great Recession; since then it’s generally risen at 3% or less

July 2016: +4.0%

4.7%4.0%

4.4% 4.2% 4.0%4.4%

3.7%3.2% 3.4% 3.7%

2.5% 2.4% 2.6%2.2%

8.8%

7.7%

5.4%5.8%

6.9%

4.0%

3.0%

2.4%

7.8%

5.9%

0.5%

4.0%3.2%

-1.0%

2.4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16:1H

Change in Medical CPIChange Med Cost per Lost Time Claim

WC Medical Severity vs. the Medical CPI Rate, 2002-2016

Sources: Med CPI from US Bureau of Labor Statistics, WC med severity from NCCI based on NCCI states.

Is a 4% increase an outlier vs. recent trend?

2.7%

4.3%3.5%

4.7% 4.6%

2.7%

1.1%

4.6%

1.0%

3.1%

5.9%

2.9%

1.1%

3.0%2.3%

2.9%2.3%

2.3%2.8%

1.1%

1.5%1.0%

-2.2%

-0.1%0.9%

3.1%

6.6%

9.3%

0.6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16:1H

Change in CPS Wage Change in Indemnity Cost per Lost-Time Claim

WC Indemnity Severity Growth vs. Wage Inflation, 2002 -2015p

2014: Indemnity cost is preliminary based on data valued as of 12/31/2014; 1991-2010: Based on data through 12/31/2010, developed to ultimate. Based on the states where NCCI provides ratemaking services. Excludes the effects of deductible policies. CPS = Current Population Survey. Source: NCCI; Insurance Information Institute

Since 2009, WC indemnity severity growth has been slower than wage gains,

except in 2013

15 2.3%


43

Prices for Hospital Services: 12-Month Change,* 1998–2016

*Percentage change from same month in prior year; through July 2016; seasonally adjusted Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

'98 '01 '04 '07 '11 '14

Recession OutpatientServices InpatientServicesPrices for Hospital Services have risen at an annual rate of 4% (and often more) for the last 15 years, while the general price level rose by 2%/year.

July 2016 Inpatient services +5.3%

July 2016 Outpatient services +2.9%

Investment Performance: a Key Driver of Profitability

44

Depressed Yields Influence Underwriting & Pricing

12/01/09 - 9pm

44


45

US Treasury Note 10-Year Yields: A Long Downward Trend, 2000–2016*

*Monthly, constant maturity, nominal rates, through July 2016. Sources: Federal Reserve Bank at http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/data.htm; National Bureau of Economic Research (recession dates); Insurance Information Institute.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16

Recession

10-YrYield

Yields on 10-Year US Treasury Notes have been below 3% for 5 years: bonds bought in 2006 at 5% will be reinvested

at 1.5% for 10 more years

Since roughly 80% of P/C bond/cash investments are in 5-to-10-year durations, most P/C insurer portfolios will have low-yielding bonds for years to come.

US Treasury yields plunged to historic lows in

2013, then rebounded but

are sinking again

12/01/09 - 9pm

45

12/01/09 - 9pm

46

P/C Insurer Portfolio Yields, 2002-2015

4.20%

3.93%

3.73%

3.83%

3.68%

3.43%

3.65%

3.18%

4.49%

4.50%

4.59%

4.03%

4.44%4.85%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15

Sources: NAIC, via SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.

P/C carrier yields have been falling for over a decade, reflecting the long downtrend in prevailing interest rates. Even as prevailing rates rise in the

next few years, portfolio yields are unlikely to rise quickly, since low yields of recent years are “baked in” to future returns.

Forecasts of Avg. Yield of 10-Year US Treasury Notes

1.6 1.7

2.6 2.8

3 3.2

1.7

2.1

3.4

3.7 3.8

3.9

1.8

2.5

4.2 4.4

4.5 4.5

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

10 Most Pessimistic Median 10 Most Optimistic


47

Yield (%)

Virtually every one of the 53 forecasts in the Blue Chip survey anticipates that long-term interest rates

will stay at unusually low levels through 2017 Sources: Blue Chip Economic Indicators (8/16); Insurance Information Institute


48

Distribution of Bond Maturities, P/C Insurance Industry, 2006-2015

16.0%

15.2%

15.7%

15.6%

16.0%

14.9%

16.6%

16.5%

16.8%

16.3%

29.5%

30.0%

32.4%

36.4%

39.5%

41.2%

40.4%

38.8%

37.1%

35.8%

34.1%

33.8%

31.2%

29.0%

27.1%

27.3%

27.6%

29.3%

30.8%

33.7%

13.1%

12.9%

12.7%

11.9%

11.2%

10.4%

9.8%

9.8%

9.6%

9.0%

7.4%

8.1%

8.1%

7.1%

6.2%

6.2%

5.7%

5.7%

5.7%

5.1%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Under 1 year

1-5 years

5-10 years

10-20 years

over 20 years

Sources: SNL Financial; Insurance Information Institute.

Two main shifts over these years. From 2008 to 2011-12, from bonds with longer maturities to bonds with shorter maturities. But beginning in 2013, the reverse. Note,

however, that the percentages in bonds with maturities over 10 years continues to drop.

49

And Finally,…

12/01/09 - 9pm

49

Changing Demographics


50

Giant Age Cohort (Millenials) Is Approaching Home-Buying Stage

Sources: Census Bureau; CoreLogic; Insurance Information Institute.

4.22 4.25 4.30

4.40 4.50

4.57 4.69

4.78 4.77

4.58 4.48

4.40 4.41 4.44

4.30 4.36 4.35

4.30 4.39

4.12 4.03 3.99

3.87

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

If prior patterns hold, the number of homes bought by current renters, and the number of new homes built, will rise in coming years

Number of People in 2015 (Millions)

Average Age, 1st Time

Homebuyer

Average Age, Repeat

Homebuyer

Millennial Generation


51

Growth in Number of Households => Increased Demand for Housing

Sources: Census Bureau; CoreLogic; Insurance Information Institute.

753

1,196

865

2,028 1,878

415

824

-247

776 986

569

978

409

2,213

191

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

If prior patterns hold, the number of homes bought by current renters, and the number of new homes built, will rise in coming years

Net Change in Number of Occupied Residences (Thousands)

A spike, not a trend Housing

bubble

Bubble burst

Labor Force Participation Rate, Ages 65-69, Quarterly, 1998:Q1-2016:Q2

25.2%

25.2% 26.3%

26.5%

26.2%

27.9%

27.2%

27.4%27.9%

27.3%27.8%

27.6%

26.8% 27.6%

29.3%

29.5%

27.9% 28.5%

28.7%

30.8%

29.3% 30.1%

29.1%30.3%

30.1% 30.9%

31.0%

30.7%

31.0%

31.4%

30.9%

31.2%

31.6%

31.3%

31.5%

31.4%32.8%

32.3%

31.1% 32.2%

32.2%

32.5%

31.8%

31.8%

31.7%32.9%

32.1%

31.8%

31.6%

31.9%

31.3%

31.5% 32.1%

32.2%

31.8%

32.2%

32.6%

32.3%

27.0%

22.9%

23.0%

22.8%

23.0%

22.3%

22.5%

22.1%

23.5% 24.4%

24.4%

24.3% 24.9%

24.4%

24.4%

24.8%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

32%

34%

1998.1

1998.3

1999.1

1999.3

2000.1

2000.3

2001.1

2001.3

2002.1

2002.3

2003.1

2003.3

2004.1

2004.3

2005.1

2005.3

2006.1

2006.3

2007.1

2007.3

2008.1

2008.3

2009.1

2009.3

2010.1

2010.3

2011.1

2011.3

2012.1

2012.3

2013.1

2013.3

2014.1

2014.3

2015.1

2015.3

2016.1

Not seasonally adjusted. Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.

The brown bars indicate recessions.

Labor Force participation rate

The switch from DB pension plans (with early-retirement incentives) to DC plans (with, in effect, later-retirement incentives) might be partly responsible for raising this rate.

1 in 3 in this age group are working.

Very few of them are “baby boomers.”


14.2%

13.8% 14.2%

14.0%

14.0% 14.4%

14.4% 14.9%

14.9% 15.4%

15.6%

15.3%16.4% 17.0%

15.8% 16.2% 16.7%

16.9%

17.2%

17.0%

16.7%

16.8%

18.0%

17.5%

17.3%

16.9%

18.6%

18.2%

17.7%

17.9%18.9%

19.2%

18.0%

18.1%

17.4%18.4%

18.0% 18.4%19.3%

19.5%

19.2%

19.1% 19.9%

19.6%

18.8% 19.3% 19.7%

19.0%

19.0%

19.0%

18.9%

18.8%

18.6%

18.8%

18.4%

18.5%

18.7% 19.3%

14.6%

13.1%13.6%

12.4%12.9%

12.4%

12.2%

12.5% 13.1%

13.3%

13.5%

13.6%

13.8% 14.4%

13.7% 14.2%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

1998.1

1998.3

1999.1

1999.3

2000.1

2000.3

2001.1

2001.3

2002.1

2002.3

2003.1

2003.3

2004.1

2004.3

2005.1

2005.3

2006.1

2006.3

2007.1

2007.3

2008.1

2008.3

2009.1

2009.3

2010.1

2010.3

2011.1

2011.3

2012.1

2012.3

2013.1

2013.3

2014.1

2014.3

2015.1

2015.3

2016.1

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor; Insurance Information Institute.


The labor force participation rate for workers 70-74 grew by about 50% since 1998. Growth in the participation rate has stalled at about 18-19% since 2013.

Nearly 1 in 5 in this age group is working.

15 years ago it was 1 in 8.


8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

1998.1

1998.3

1999.1

1999.3

2000.1

2000.3

2001.1

2001.3

2002.1

2002.3

2003.1

2003.3

2004.1

2004.3

2005.1

2005.3

2006.1

2006.3

2007.1

2007.3

2008.1

2008.3

2009.1

2009.3

2010.1

2010.3

2011.1

2011.3

2012.1

2012.3

2013.1

2013.3

2014.1

2014.3

2015.1

2015.3

2016.1



The labor force participation rate for workers 70-74 grew by about 50% since 1998. Growth in the participation rate has stalled since 2013.

Nearly 1 in 4 men in this age group is working.

Nearly 1 in 7 women in this age group is working. The percent of

women working has nearly doubled.

Labor Force Participation Rate, Ages 75 and over, Quarterly, 1998-2016:Q2

5.4%

5.1%5.1% 5.2%

5.0%

5.5%5.9%

5.8% 5.9% 6.0% 6.1%6.5%

6.1%

6.6%

6.3%6.7%

6.4% 6.6%

6.0%

6.5%6.5%

7.1%

7.0%

6.9%6.9%7.2% 7.4% 7.6%7.6%

7.0% 7.2%7.3%7.3%

6.9%

7.7%

7.5%

7.1%7.5% 7.6% 7.7%

7.6%7.6%

7.4%7.8%

8.6%

7.9%

7.4%7.7%

8.3%

8.0%

7.6%8.0%8.3%

8.1% 8.2%8.2%

8.1%

8.6%

5.8%

5.4%

5.1%

4.8%5.0%

4.6%4.6%

4.5%

5.2% 5.4%

5.3%

5.2% 5.3%

5.2%5.2%

5.1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

1998.1

1998.3

1999.1

1999.3

2000.1

2000.3

2001.1

2001.3

2002.1

2002.3

2003.1

2003.3

2004.1

2004.3

2005.1

2005.3

2006.1

2006.3

2007.1

2007.3

2008.1

2008.3

2009.1

2009.3

2010.1

2010.3

2011.1

2011.3

2012.1

2012.3

2013.1

2013.3

2014.1

2014.3

2015.1

2015.3

2016.1


In the last 15 years, the labor force participation rate for workers 75 and over grew from 4.5% to 8.6% (in 2013:Q1), but has since fallen slightly.


The labor force participation rate for workers 75 and over could hit 10% soon. This is

close to what the rate was for the 70-74 group a decade ago.

Labor Force Participation Rate, Ages 75 and over, Quarterly, 1998-2016:Q2

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

1998.1

1998.3

1999.1

1999.3

2000.1

2000.3

2001.1

2001.3

2002.1

2002.3

2003.1

2003.3

2004.1

2004.3

2005.1

2005.3

2006.1

2006.3

2007.1

2007.3

2008.1

2008.3

2009.1

2009.3

2010.1

2010.3

2011.1

2011.3

2012.1

2012.3

2013.1

2013.3

2014.1

2014.3

2015.1

2015.3

2016.1



The labor force participation rate for workers 75 and over has doubled since 1998, but growth in the participation rate has slowed recently.

The percent of women in this age group that is

working has doubled.

1 in 8 men in this age group is working.

57

Fatal Work Injury Rates Improved Slightly Since 2006 but Still Climb Sharply With Age

2014 data are preliminary Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, at http://www.bls.gov/iif/oshwc/cfoi/cfch0012.pdf

Fatal Work Injury Rate per 100,000 full-time-equivalent workers

2.8

2.7 3.

3 3.7 4.

2

5.0

11.2

2.4 2.6 2.7 3.

2 3.7

4.5

12.2

2.8

2.2 2.

7 2.9 3.

6

4.7

11.9

2.9

2.3

2.3 2.

6

3.4 3.

9

9.8

2.0 2.

3

2.3 2.

7

3.5 4.

1

10.2

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

18-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

The fatality rate for workers 65 and older was 4 times that of workers age 25-34. The workplace of the future

will have to be completely redesigned to accommodate the

surge in older workers.

58

Older Workers Lose More Days from Work Due to Injury or Illness

5 6

9 10

12

15

5 6

8 10

13 15

4 6

9

12 14 14

5 6

9

12

15 17

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

2008 2010 2012 2014

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Nonfatal Occupational Injuries and Illnesses Requiring Days Away From Work, 2014 (Table 9), released November 19, 2015.

Median Days Away From

Work

Youngest baby boomer was

age 50 (in 2014)

Median lost time of workers age 65+ is 2-3X that of workers age 25-34. These numbers are pretty stable—they haven’t changed much since 2008.

Oldest baby boomer was

age 68 (in 2014)

59

Older Workers Are Much More Likely to Break a Bone

7.5 6.3 6.7

9.6

13.1

18.2

2.1 2.6 3.3 3.4 4.8 5.1

0 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18 20

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Fractures Multiple Traumatic Injuries

*per 10,000 full-time-equivalent workers Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/osh2.pdf Table 12

Incidence Rate* (2014)

60

Older Workers Are More Likely Than Younger Workers to Slip/Fall, but Less Likely to Overexert Themselves

18.8 19.7

25.7

34.1

44.3

49.5

29.4

38 42.3

37.5

21.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Falls, slips, trips Overexertion

35.2

Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, US Department of Labor at http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/osh2.pdf Table 12

Incidence Rate (2014) Source/Nature of Injury:

www.iii.org

Thank you for your time and your attention!

Insurance Information Institute Online:

12/01/09 - 9pm

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