Paul Scherrer Institut 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK) Assessment of...

Paul Scherrer Institut • 5232 Villigen PSI NewExt-Project, 13./14.09.2001, Bath (UK)

Assessment of externalities from major accidents

in non-nuclear fuel chains(Work Package 5)

S. Hirschberg & P. Burgherr

Paul Scherrer Institute, Switzerland

EESD Energy Project NewExt: first progress meeting

Bath (UK), 13 and 14 September 2001


Content

• Summary of work progress

- Current status of PSI database ENSAD

- Extension needs

• Issues

- Importance of smaller accidents

- Probabilistic analysis for hydropower

- Economic valuation

• Tasks for next 6 months (+)


Risk assessment – scope and goals

• Assessment of major accidents in non-nuclear fuel chains with

focus on the severe ones. The basis for this work is PSI’s database

ENSAD.

• In addition, an extension of the database including identification

and acquisition of new sources will be performed.

• Specific survey of historical data considering smaller accidents.

• Development of a concept for experience- and prediction-based

dam risk assessment.


Severe Accident Definition(as used in ENSAD)

One or several of the following consequences:

• At least 5 fatalities

• At least 10 injured

• At least 200 evacuees

• Extensive ban on consumption of food

• Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes

• Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2

• Economic loss of at least 5 million USD


Some methodological issues

• Definition of a severe accident that could be consistently applied to various

energy chains.

• Distinction between the estimates based on actual experience and on

predictions utilizing logical system models.

• Treatment of source data and the rational for screening.

• Accounting for contributions from all stages of fuel cycles.

• Role of risk perception/risk aversion.

• Presentation of results.


Code Name

Country of Origin

Time Geographical Area

Type of Accidents Covered

OFDA USA 1900-1995 Worldwide Man-made and Natural Catastrophes

MHIDAS UK 1900-1995 Worldwide Industry

FACTS Netherlands 1920-1995 Worldwide Industry

RfF USA 1945-1991 Worldwide Man-made and Natural Catastrophes

ICOLD France 1850-1992 Worldwide Dam Accidents

SIGMA Switzerland 1969-1995 Worldwide Man-made and Natural Catastrophes

WOAD Norway 1970-1995 Worldwide Offshore

HSUB Germany 1900-1983 Worldwide Industry

SONATA Italy -- Worldwide Industry

MARS European Community

1980-1991 Europe Industry

Major accident Databases Used by ENSAD


• Major commercial and non-commercial accident databases

• Journals, periodicals and books on specific energy systems

• Technical reports issued by manufacturing and insurance companies, or by research institutes

• National and international newspapers

• Other publications, e.g. Conference Proceedings, Encyclopaedias, Annual Reports etc.

• Plant operators

• Consular authorities

• International organisations (UN, OECD, European Community, etc.)

• Organisations providing emergency services (Red Cross, UN, etc.)

• Governmental organisations having an internal reporting system, such as police, fire brigades, labour and environmental inspectorates

The most important information sources forPSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD)


Implementation

• Acquisition of relevant databases.

• Implementation of the acquired databases on a personal computer.

• Merging of the contents of the various databases within Microsoft’s Access.

• Elimination of overlapping events and harmonisation of non-consistent information.

• Identification of energy-related accidents and among them of accidents considered as severe.

• Allocation of energy-related accidents to specific fuel cycles and subsequently to specific stages within each fuel cycle.

• Searches utilising supplementary sources.

• Application of PSA.

• Implementation of the additional evidence into the database.

• Evaluation.


PSI's Energy-related Severe Accidents Database (ENSAD) and its Merits

• 13914 accidents, of which

10064 (72.3%) man-made

3850 (27.7%) as natural

• 4290 energy-related accidents, corresponding to:

30.8% of all accidents

42.6% of man-made accidents

• Among the energy-related accidents 1943 (45.3%) are severe, of which 846 have 5 or more fatalities

• In the period 1975‑1996 typically about 30 energy-related accidents with at least five fatalities occurred each year; among them 1‑5 had consequences exceeding 100 fatalities.

• Nearly 93% of the energy-related accidents occurred in the time period 1945‑1996

• 62% of all energy-related severe accidents with at least 5 fatalities occurred in the western world

• Much improved coverage and balance between reporting levels for individual countries


0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

4019

45

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Year

Nu

mb

er o

f Acc

iden

ts

more than 100

51-100 Fatalities

21-50 Fatalities

5-20 Fatalities

Energy-related Severe Accidents (1945-1996)

Source: Hirschberg et al., 1998


A B C D E F G H

Man-made Non-energy-relatedMan-made Energy-related

Man-madeNatural

All Accidents

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

Number ofAccidents

Damage Category

Accident Type

ENSAD Number of Accidents by Type and Damage Category

A: No threshold B: C or D or E or F or G or HC:at least 5 fatalities, D: at least 10 injuries, E: at least 200 evacueesF: at least 10,000 t of pollutives releases of hydrocarbons and chemicalsG: at least 25 km2 area of enforced clean up of land+water H: at least 5 Million US$ of economic loss



Number of fatalities in severe accidentsby oil chain step (1969-1996)

Extraction12.5%

Transport to Refinery

28.9%

Refinery2.1%

Regional Distribution

50.7%

Exploration5.5%

Heating0.4%




Severe Accidents Indicators for OECD and Non-OECD Countries

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

OECD Non-OECD

OECD Non-OECD

OECD Non-OECD

OECD Non-OECD

OECD Non-OECD

OECD Non-OECD

Num

ber

of A

ffect

ed P

erso

ns p

er G

We*

a

Immediate FatalitiesInjuredEvacuees

Coal Oil Nat. Gas LPG Hydro Nuclear


Energy-related Severe Accidents (1969-1996)Economic Losses


1.E-3

1.E-2

1.E-1

1.E+0

1.E+1

1.E+2

World-wide OECD World-wide OECD

Mo

net

ary

Dam

age

per

pro

du

ced

En

erg

y (M

illio

n 1

996

US

$/G

We*

a)

Max. Damage/GWe*a (1969-1996)

Min. Damage/GWe*a (1969-1996)

Coal Oil Nat. Gas LPG Hydro Nuclear


1.E-9

1.E-8

1.E-7

1.E-6

1.E-5

1.E-4

1.E-3

1.E-2

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Number of Fatalities, X

Fre

qu

ency

of

Eve

nts

cau

sin

gX

or

mo

re F

atal

itie

s p

er G

We*

a

Coal

Oil

Natural Gas

Hydro

Nuclear(Mühleberg,PSA-based latent fatalities)

Nuclear(Chernobyl, range ofestimated latent fatalities)

Nuclear (Chernobyl,immediate fatalities)

Severe Accidents in the Electricity Sector World-wide 1969-96 (ENSAD)



Extension needs

OSH-ROM (Health & Safety Publishing) 2000 CHF per year

ICOLD world register of dams Free year 2000 update

Bibliography of the history of dam failures 369 EUR

PC Facts (1996-2000) n.a.

WOAD (Worldwide Offshore Accident Database) 305 USD

Lloyd‘s casualty archive(online database since Jan 1991) 1135 USD

Oil spills:

CONCAWE (oil companies' European organisation forenvironment, health and safety) Free

ITOPF (Int. Tanker Owners Pollution Federation) Free

International oil spill statistics (Cutter Information Corp.) 205 USD

IEA world energy statistics update 2000 1200 USD

(data normalization)


Severe vs smaller accidents

• A severe accident should have one or several of the following consequences:

- At least 5 fatalities

- At least 10 injured

- At least 200 evacuees

- Extensive ban on consumption of food

- Release of hydrocarbons exceeding 10000 tonnes

- Enforced clean-up of land and water over an area of at least 25 km2

- Economic loss of at least 5 million USD

A smaller accident does not match any of the above criteria


Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996)

15

7047

1122

3

9

8677

334

187

1

10

100

1000

10000

Coal Oil LPG Natural Gas Hydro

Nu

mb

er o

f ac

cid

ents

Smaller Accidents

Severe Accidents


Smaller vs severe accidents in ENSAD (1969-1996)

2

295

26

50

14

8272

15623

3175

1482

5140

31

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Coal Oil LPG Natural Gas Hydro Nuclear

Nu

mb

er o

f fa

tali

ties

Smaller Accidents

Severe Accidents



Smaller accidents 1996-2000

• Initial survey of OSH-ROM (MHIDAS, CISDOC, HSELINE etc) yielded a total of 28

fatalities and 48 fatalities.

2

21

5

8

32

8

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Coal Oil Natural Gas

Nu

mb

er o

f ac

cid

ents

or

fata

liti

es

Accidents Fatalities


Smaller accidents in China‘s coal chain 1994-1999

18871401

1613

3254

15102197

1346

43604998

4662

2772

39854190

5551

0

20

40

60

80

100

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Mean

Fat

alit

ies

(%)

Severe Accidents Smaller Accidents

Source: CETP-Project


Smaller accidents in coal mining in the USA (1995-2000)

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Nu

mb

er o

f ac

cid

ents

or

fata

liti

es

Accidents Fatalities

Analysis based on MSHA statistics


Treatment of smaller accidents

• Use of extended ENSAD database as a starting point

• Use of additional sources:

- Occupational Health & Safety statistics

- NEWCRONOS database by EUROSTAT

- International Labour Organization statistics

- etc


Economic valuation

• To what extent are non-nuclear accidents already internalized?

- Differences between specific energy chains

- Occupational vs public accidents

- Small vs large accidents

• Basis for monetisation

- Value of statistical life

- Damages other than loss of life


Tasks for next 6 months (+)

1. Implementation of database extension up to year 2000

2. First evaluations based on extended database

3. Data acquisition for smaller accidents

4. Initialization of hydropower analysis

5. Partner contributions to monetisation

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