Paul Papadimitriou - Information And Passion - The Future Of Music (Darker Music Talks June '14)
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Transcript of Paul Papadimitriou - Information And Passion - The Future Of Music (Darker Music Talks June '14)
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#DarkerMusicTalks
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Paul Papadimitriou.Darker Music Talks.June 2014.
Music was my first love
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Innovation.Disruption.Technology.Future.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
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Future.
This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered asa means of communication. The device is of no value.
—Western Union, 1876
Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
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Future.
—Thomas Watson, IBM Chairman, 1943
Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.
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Future.
—Ken Olson, President, Chairman & Founder, DEC, 1977
Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.
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Future.
—Decca Recording Company on the Beatles, 1962
Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
We don’t like their sound, and guitar music in on the way out.
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Future.
The internet.
Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
Flying cars?
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Future.
You cannot connect the dots looking forward.You can only connect them looking them backwards.
—Steve Jobs, 2005
Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology.
Tokyo.New York.
Manila.
Shanghai.
Dubai.
Mumbai.Bangkok.
London.
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Emerging reach.
1995 2000 2005 2010 2012 2020
5000000000
2029000000
201900000101900000411000004400000
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Emerging reach.
Facebook has > 1,000,000,000 users.
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Emerging reach.
YouTube has > 1,000,000,000 uniques per month.
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GOOG
MSFT
FB
YHOO
0 350 700 1050 1400
US World
Emerging markets.
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Emerging markets.
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Share of world GDP (%, PPP basis)
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Emerging computing.
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
1M
10M
100M
1B
10B+
MAINFRAME
Devices/Users (MM, log scale)
MINICOMPUTER
PC
WEB
MOBILE
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Emerging computing.
420,000,000 newspapers.1,000,000,000 cable TV subscriptions.1,500,000,000 PCs.1,800,000,000 active email accounts.2,000,000,000 TVs.2,200,000,000 credit cards.2,800,000,000 internet users.4,200,000,000 FM radio receivers.7,100,000,000 mobile phone subscriptions.
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Emerging computing.
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Emerging computing.
From 1,500,000,000 PCs to 3,000,000,000 smartphones.1,000,000,000 mobile-first and -only.75% of literate population to have a smartphone in 2017.
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Emerging automation.
From ATMs to exoskeletons.Processes are being “codified”.
No flying cars? Self-driven cars.
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Emerging entropy.15 million new books
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Emerging entropy. 15 million new books
52 million new websites
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books
52 million new websites
48,000,000,000 hours on YouTube
Emerging entropy.
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Emerging entropy.
52 million new websites
48,000,000,000 hours on YouTube
182,500,000,000 tweets
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48,000,000,000 hours on YouTube
182,500,000,000 tweets
400,000,000,000 photos
Emerging entropy.
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Emerging entropy.
182,500,000,000 tweets
400,000,000,000 photos
1,000,000,000,000 Facebook Likes
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400,000,000,000 photos
1,000,000,000,000 Facebook Likes
1,500,000,000,000 Google searches
Emerging entropy.
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Emerging entropy.
1,000,000,000,000 Facebook Likes
1,500,000,000,000 Google searches
9,000,000,000,000 SMS
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1,500,000,000,000 Google searches
9,000,000,000,000 SMS
55,000,000,000, 000 emails
Emerging entropy.
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1,500,000,000,000 Google searches
9,000,000,000,000 SMS
55,000,000,000, 000 emails
Emerging entropy.
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Emerging entropy.“The acceleration of information has reached a point!where it’s totally out of control and nobody can stop!it.”— Robert Anton Wilson
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Dynamics.
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Emerging deflation.
Technology disappears for two reasons.1. It gets into the background.
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Emerging deflation.
Technology disappears for two reasons.1. It gets into the background.2. It gets disrupted.
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Emerging deflation.
Technology disappears for two reasons.
Disruption is a deflation game.
1. It gets into the background.2. It gets disrupted.
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Emerging deflation.
Technology disappears for two reasons.
Disruption is a deflation game.
1. It gets into the background.2. It gets disrupted.
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Emerging deflation.
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Emerging pace.
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Emerging efficiency.
On-demand computing.On-demand human capital.
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Emerging adoption.
1870 1900 2000
46 years
35 years
31 years
26 years
16 years
13 years7 years
2014
Elec
trici
ty
Tele
phon
e
Radi
o
Tele
visi
on
PC Cell
Web
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Emerging overlaps.
Piling of value-added platform layers.
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Emerging innovations are happening at an ever-accelerating rate.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Impact.
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Emerging crash of price.
YouTube v. Television
Automation + Accelerated deflation + Accelerated adoption.
Crash of retail.
The “physical” framing is crashing under information.
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Emerging crash of jobs.
Automation + Emerging Markets + Accelerated deflation.
Greece: 57% youth unemployment.Spain: 54% youth unemployment.
Unemployment and under-employment
47% of existing jobs likely be automated in next 20 years.16 years old today? 36 jobs.
The “job” framing is crashing under information.
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Emerging crash of middle-class.
BSing of jobs.
Owners of capital capture the world’s income.
Real wages do not grow anymore.
Rise of 0.01%.Rise of luxury.
The “average” framing is crashing under information.
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Emerging crash of growth.
GDP is flat.
The “traditional” framing is crashing under information.
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Emerging crash of institutions.
Education doesn’t deliver the promise of a job.Government can’t provide for the people.
The “top-down” framing is crashing under information.
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No jobs.No growth.No institutions.No future?
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Maps.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Maps.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Maps.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Compass.
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Emerging trust.
Networks enable openness, transparency and trust.We know institutions can’t provide anymore.We substitute for those institutions.We fight protectionism.We look for meaning in information.
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Emerging jobs.
On-demand work.Rise of the freelancers.Rise of entrepreneurs.Rise of startups.Rise of nodal networks.
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Emerging information.
Rise of information as a substitute for capital.Rise of information as a substitute for market research.Rise of information as pre-purchase mechanism.Rise of information as validation, ledger.
Rise of extreme flattening of means of production.
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Emerging values.
Rise of ownership leveraging.Rise of ownership for access trade-off.Rise of experience over ownership.Rise of new marketplaces.
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Emerging identities.
Tribal.Nomad.Singular.
Differentiated. Shared actualization.
Self-constructed. Nodal.Mobile. Augmented.
Rise of new identities.
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Emerging reality.
The peer-to-peer age.The people-to-people age.
We all are creators.We all are producers.
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Emerging values.
The internet is a city.The internet is a community.The internet is an experience.
The internet is an agora.
The internet is a home.
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Emerging reality.
The world is flat(ter)
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Emerging reality.
The world is flat(ter)The world is efficient(er)
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Emerging reality.
The world is flat(ter)The world is efficient(er)The world is capitalist(er)
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Music(er).
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Emerging fallacy.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009
8-track LP/EP Tape CD
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Emerging fallacy.
iTunes?-24% YoY spending per user.
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Emerging fallacy.
Spotify?100 self-pressed CDs = 900 iTunes album downloads= 4,000,000 Spotify plays per month
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Emerging fallacy.
Music was never owned.We value what we touch.
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Emerging virtuality.
Music was never owned.We value what we touch.
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Emerging reality.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we touch.We value what has meaning.
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Emerging reality.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we touch.We value what has meaning.
Music always had meaning.
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Emerging reality.
Music always changed the world.
Music always had meaning.
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Emerging reality.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what touches us.
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Emerging reality.
Tribal.Nomad.Singular.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what touches us.
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Emerging reality.
Tribal.Nomad.Singular.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what touches us.
Music was always an identity.
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Emerging reality.
Music was always an identity.
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Emerging reality.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we experience.
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Emerging reality.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we experience.Rise of luxury.Crash of ownership.Rise of experience.
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Emerging reality.
Music was never owned. It can’t be devalued.We value what we experience.Rise of luxury.Crash of ownership.Rise of experience.Music was always an experience.
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Music was always an experience.
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Emerging reality.
The world is finally adopting the dynamics of music.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Musicpreneurs.
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Emerging qualities.
The amount of progress computers will make in the next few yearsis equal to the progress they have made since the very beginning.We are not the computers anymore.
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Emerging qualities.
Adaptability, lateral thinking, emotional intelligence & creativity.
We are the creators.
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Emerging hope.
Average is over.
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Emerging qualities.
Adaptability, lateral thinking, emotional intelligence & creativity.
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Emerging qualities.
Adaptability, lateral thinking, emotional intelligence & creativity.Qualities of entrepreneurs. Qualities of musicians.
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Emerging experiences.
Technology innovation is the main process by which luxury items become produced, packaged, and made affordable for everyone.
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Emerging experiences.
Luxury also means uniqueness.
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Emerging experiences.
Luxury means uniqueness.Luxury means scarcity.
Create scarcity.
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Emerging experiences.
Luxury means uniqueness.Luxury means scarcity.
Transform music into a “luxury” experience.Create scarcity.
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Emerging unbundling.
Unbundle the product (content) from the experience.Repurposable content to achieve unique experiences.
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Emerging experimentation.
Experiment experience.Experiment overlaps.Experiment with other entrepreneurs.
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Emerging experimentation.
Experiment experience.Experiment overlaps.Experiment with other entrepreneurs.
Lady Gaga and Studio XO.
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Emerging leverages.
Leverage reach of networks.Leverage information as capital.Leverage people-to-people marketplaces.Leverage communities.Leverage flat means of productions.
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Emerging pace.
Experiment fast. Experiment often.Fail fast. Fail often.Rework fast. Rework often.
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Emerging pace.
Do crazy shit.
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Future.Innovation.Disruption.Technology. Unlocked.
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Emerging hope.
“Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I’m not sure about the former.”
— Albert Einstein
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Emerging hope.
The internet is not going away.
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Emerging hope.
“…the idea of the future being different from the present is so repugnantto our conventional modes of thought and behavior that we, most of us,
— John Manyard Keynesoffer a great resistance to acting on it in practice.”
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Emerging hope.
The album was the framing.The EP was the framing.The jukebox was the framing.
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Emerging hope.
The album was the framing.The EP was the framing.The jukebox was the framing.
Do not think inside the box.
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Emerging hope.
The album was the framing.The EP was the framing.The jukebox was the framing.
Do not think inside the box.Do not think outside the box. There’s no box.
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Hello. I’m Paul from Intelligenc #DarkerMusicTalksr.
Music was my first love…and it will be my last.
I’m a bad musician.