Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research...
Transcript of Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research...
![Page 1: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
![Page 2: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Patty SilversteinPresident, Development Research Partners
Economist, Metro Denver EDC
![Page 3: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Cycles:2018 Economic Forecast for Metro Denver
January 31, 2018
© Can Stock Photo / kgtoh
In Partnership with:Prepared by:
![Page 4: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Employment Gains/Losses by Year
-120-100
-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
Thou
sand
s of J
obs
Recession Colorado Metro DenverSource: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
2017e=DRP estimate; 2018f=DRP forecast
2018fCO +50,500
Metro Denver +31,400
![Page 5: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Employment growth varies across the state
-0.3%
1.1%1.9%2.0%
3.2%3.9%
1.9%1.5%
-2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Grand JunctionPueblo
Colorado SpringsMetro Denver
GreeleyFort Collins
ColoradoU.S.
Nonfarm Job Growth Rates by Metro Area, preliminary 2017
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics.
![Page 6: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
2016 Jobs Relative to Pre-Recession Peak Recession Years: 2007-2009
Source: Colorado Division of Local Government, State Demography Office.
![Page 7: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Key Metro Denver and Northern ColoradoIndustry Clusters
• Aerospace• Aviation• Beverage Production• Bioscience
• Medical Devices & Diagnostics
• Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology
• Broadcasting & Telecommunications
• Energy• Fossil Energy• Cleantech
• Financial Services• Banking & Finance• Investments• Insurance
• Healthcare & Wellness
• IT/Software
![Page 8: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Metro Denver and Northern ColoradoIndustry Clusters, 2015-2016
Source: Development Research Partners.Full reports at www.metrodenver.org
![Page 9: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Consumer Activity Cycles
© Can Stock Photo / Kzenon
© Can Stock Photo / photograffics
![Page 10: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Metro Denver Annual Change in Population
-10,0000
10,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2018 Population = 3.22 MillionNet Migration Natural Increase
Source: Colorado Division of Local Government, State Demography Office.
![Page 11: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Percentage of In-Migration by those ages18-34 years (roughly, the Millennials)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Atlanta Austin Dallas Denver Phoenix Portland Salt LakeCity
Seattle
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2016 American Community Survey.
![Page 12: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Consumers Are Confident & Spending
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Reta
il Tr
ade
Grow
th R
ate
Cons
umer
Con
fiden
ce In
dex
Metro Denver Retail Trade Growth Mountain Region Consumer Confidence
Sources: Colorado Department of Revenue; The Conference Board.2017e=DRP estimate; 2018f=DRP forecast
![Page 13: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Metro Denver ranked #14 and Boulder #7for highest median home price in 3Q 2017
$197 $172 $173 $166 $177 $197 $209 $224 $236 $247 $260$219 $220 $232 $231 $252 $281 $310
$354 $384 $413 $433$360 $346 $358 $353 $384 $372 $391
$454$512
$563$602
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
Median Home Prices (in thousands)
United States Metro Denver Boulder
Source: National Association of REALTORS.2017e= DRP estimate; 2018f=DRP forecast
![Page 14: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Apartment Vacancy and Rental Rates
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
$1,200
$1,300
$1,400
$1,500
3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Monthly Rental Rate
Vaca
ncy
Rate
Metro Denver Vacancy Rate
Source: Denver Metro Apartment Vacancy & Rent Survey.2018f=DRP forecast
![Page 15: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Multi-family represented 52% of new construction in 2017 (30+ year average = 28%)
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017e 2018f
Metro Denver Building Permits*Multi-Family (5+ units)
* The Census Bureau tracks building permits by the number of housing units in the structure.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Building Permits.
2017e = DRP estimate; 2018f=DRP forecast
![Page 16: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Commercial Real Estate Cycles
© Can Stock Photo / photostocker
© Can Stock Photo / joreks
![Page 17: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Cycle Monitor – Dr. Glenn Mueller,Black Creek Group
![Page 18: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
4Q 2017
Vacancy Rate: 9.8%
Full Service Rent: $26.24
Completed: 3.0 MSF
Under Construction: 5.1 MSF
Source: CoStar Group
Source: Black Creek Group, Cycle Monitor, Third Quarter 2017 Analysis.
Denver Office at 7 for past five quarters,up from 4 during 3Q 2014
![Page 19: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
4Q 2017
Vacancy Rate: 3.9%
NNN Rent Direct: $7.61
Completed: 5.3 MSF
Under Construction: 5.8 MSF
Source: CoStar Group
Source: Black Creek Group, Cycle Monitor, Third Quarter 2017 Analysis.
Denver Industrial moved to 13after being at 11 or 12 since 1Q 2014
![Page 20: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
4Q 2017
Vacancy Rate: 4.3%
NNN Rent Direct: $17.95
Completed: 1.6 MSF
Under Construction: 1.5 MSF
Source: CoStar Group
Source: Black Creek Group, Cycle Monitor, Third Quarter 2017 Analysis.
Denver Retail moved to 11after being at 10 for past six quarters
![Page 21: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
New Commercial Real Estate Added in Metro Denver
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018f
Mill
ions
of S
quar
e Fe
etOffice Industrial Retail
Source: CoStar Realty Information
![Page 22: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
Influences on Metro Denver’s Economic Cycles
Challenges• Hard to find workers• Rising interest rates• Rising inflation rate• Affordable housing
funding, availability• Infrastructure needs
> funding• Anti-growth
initiatives
Opportunities• Continued job growth• Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
influence in CO• Confident consumers• Some tempering in
residential markets• Active commercial real
estate market• Technology driving
major changes
![Page 23: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Questions?
Development Research Partners10184 West Belleview Avenue, Suite 100
Littleton, Colorado 80127(303) 991-0070
www.DevelopmentResearch.net
Patricia Silverstein, [email protected]
![Page 24: Patty Silverstein - Vectra Bank Colorado · Patty Silverstein. President, Development Research Partners. Economist, Metro Denver EDC](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062605/5fc82c0e32aff540c100a3ef/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Thank you!Wishing you a prosperous 2018!
Presentations & Videos delivered to your in-box today and available at vectrabank.com/Denver