Patterns for PredictiveBusiness(TM)

Processing Patterns for PredictiveBusinessTM

Event Processing Symposium March 14, 2006

Tim Bass, CISSP Principal Global Architect TIBCO Software Inc.

© 2006 TIBCO Software Inc. All Rights Reserved. Confidential and Proprietary.2

Our Agenda

Introduction Event-Decision Architecture

Traditional vs. State-of-the-Art Processing Architecture Capstone Constraints and Requirements Inference and Processing Architecture


Open Discussion


Introduction

Event-Decision Processing is Computationally Intensive CEP requires a Number of Technologies:

Distributed Computing, Publish/Subscribe and SOA Hierarchical, Cooperative Inference Processing High Speed, Real Time Processing with State Management Event-Decision Architecture for Complex Situations and Events

There is no single “CEP Solution” or “CEP Product” CEP needs a Common Vocabulary and Functional Architecture

based on Mature, Industry-Standard Inference Models Processing and Integration Patterns for CEP need to be

Developed and Formalized


Resource Management

Data Fusion

Sensor Fusion

InformationFusion

Tracking

Data Mining

Correlation

Planning Complex Event Processing

ProcessingManagement

SensorManagement

Control

Estimation

Event StreamProcessing

A Vocabulary of Confusion (Work in Progress)

Adapted from: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., CRC Press, 2001


US Legislation - Monitoring Requirements

The Predictive Enterprise


PredictiveBusinessTM

Source: Ranadivé, V., The Power to Predict, 2006.


Example PredictiveBusinessTM Scenarios

Finance Program (Opportunistic) Trading and Execution Risk Management Pricing and Consumer Relationship Management Fraud and Intrusion Detection

Business Process Management Process Monitoring Exception Management and Outage Prediction Scheduling

Sensor Networks Reliability of Complex, Distributed Systems RFID Applications Manufacturing Floor – “Sense and Respond” Power Grid Monitoring Military


PredictiveBusinessTM & Complex Event Processing (CEP)

More CEP Scenarios:Stock Trading

Automatic identification of buy/sell opportunities.

Compliance Checks Sarbanes-Oxley detection.

Fraud Detection Odd credit card purchases

performed within a period. CRM

Alert if three orders from the same platinum customer were rejected.

Insurance Underwriting Identification of risk.

"Events in several forms, from simple events to complex events, will become very widely used in business applications during 2004 through 2008"

--- Gartner July 2003

Graphic Sources: TIBCO Software Inc & IBM

CEPSituationManager

Event Streams

Historical Data

Real-time Detection and Prediction


Our Agenda




Open Discussion


HTTP request / response

Structured messages

Screen Audit events

Message Audit events

Screen/ message Audit events

FraudDetectionRules

A Traditional Event-Driven Architecture (Fraud)

FraudDetectionRules

Queue Client/ServerChanne

lQueue Fraud

DetectionRules

EMSChanne

l

Queue FraudDetectionRules

Screen Based

Channel Fraud Event

Network TAPSe

nsor

Pre

proc

essi

ng

ServiceAPI

Queue FraudDetectionRules

HTTPChanne

lQueue Fraud

DetectionRules

APIChanne

l

…1234Joe01021970…..

Fraud Event

Fraud Event

Fraud Event

Fraud Event

Structured messages

QueueUnix/ VTChannel

FraudDetectionRules

FraudEvent


Emerging Event-Decision Architecture

CustomerProfiles

Purpose-BuiltAnalytics

Distributed Multisensor Infrastructure

Internet/Extranet Sensors

Human Sensors

Edge/POCSensors

OperationsCenter

OtherReferences

Complex EventProcessors Sensors are Everywhere!


Capstone Constraints & Requirements

22

Constraints: Distributed, heterogeneous Internet and Intranet environments Purpose built systems and analytics, compartmentalization and specialization Data-at-rest (databases and warehouses) and data-in-motion (real time, event driven)

Infrastructure Requirements: Service-oriented architecture Event-driven, zero-latency, distributed message-oriented middleware Support for both standards-based interfaces and purpose-built (proprietary) interfaces Real-time event-decision processing Specialization, data warehousing, data mining, analytics Human interaction with computers and networks

Processing Requirements Layered knowledge / inference and analytics processing Complex event processing, state and temporal management, state estimation Progressive hierarchical inference – data, event, complex event, situation, impact, prediction

Adaptive control and resource management Enterprise processing model (architecture)


Event-Inference Hierarchy

22

Impact Assessment

Situational Assessment

Relationship of Events

Identify Events

Location, Times and Ratesof Events of Interest

Existence of PossibleEvent of Interest

Data/Event Cloud

Analysis of Situation & Plans

Contextual and Causal Analysis

Causal Analysis, BayesianBelief Networks, NNs,

Correlation, State Estimation,Classification

Use of DistributedSensors for Estimations

Raw Sensor Data(Passive and Active)

HIGH

LOW

MED

Adapted from: Waltz, E. & Llinas, J., Multisensor Data Fusion, 1990


Event-Decision High Level Architecture

22

EVENT CLOUD(DISTRIBUTED DATA SET)

KS

KS KS KS KSKS KS KS

KS KS KS KS KS KS

Adapted from: Engelmore, R. S., Morgan, A.J., & and Nii, H. P., Blackboard Systems, 1988 &Luckham, D., The Power of Events, 2002


Sensors• Systems that provide data and events to the inference models

and humans

Actuators • Systems that take action based on inference models and human

interactions

Knowledge Processors• Systems that take in data and events, process the data and

events, and output refined, correlated, or inferred data or events

HLA - Knowledge Sources

KS

KS

KS


Event-Decision Architecture

24

EVENT PRE-PROCESSING

EVENTSOURCES

EXTERNAL

. . .

LEVEL ONE

EVENTREFINEMENT

USERINTERFACE

COMPLEX EVENT PROCESSING (CEP)

DB MANAGEMENT

HistoricalData

Profiles &Patterns

DISTRIBUTED

LOCAL

EVENTSERVICES

.

.EVENT

PROFILES..

DATABASES

.

.OTHER DATA

LEVEL TWO

SITUATIONREFINEMENT

LEVEL THREE

IMPACTASSESSMENT

LEVEL FOUR

PROCESSREFINEMENT

Adapted from JDL: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., Handbook of Multisensor Data Fusion, CRC Press, 2001


Structured Processing for Event-Decision

Multi-level inference in a distributed event-decision architectures Level 5 – User Interface

Human visualization, interaction and situation management Level 4 – Process Refinement

Decide on control feedback, for example resource allocation, sensor and state management, parametric and algorithm adjustment

Level 3 – Impact Assessment Impact threat assessment, i.e. assess intent on the basis of situation

development, recognition and prediction Level 2 – Situation Refinement

Identify situations based on sets of complex events, state estimation, etc. Level 1 – Event Refinement

Identify events & make initial decisions based on association and correlation Level 0 – Event Preprocessing

Cleansing of event-stream to produce semantically understandable data

Level of Inference

Low

Med

High


CEP Level 0 – Event Preprocessing

Cleanse/Refine/Normalize Data for Upstream Processing Calibrate Raw Event Cloud:

Web Server Farm Event Stream Example - Group HTTP REQUESTS and RESPONSES Reduce and Extract Required Data from Transaction Format into Event for Upstream Processing

Intelligent Agent Fraud Detection Event Steam Example - Receive Event Stream from Purpose-Built FD Application Reduce and Extract Required Event from Event Stream Format for Upstream Processing

Reduces System Load by Preprocessing Events Enables Upstream to Concentrate on Most Relevant Events Focuses on Objects/Events


CEP Level 1 – Event Refinement

Problem: Which Events in the Event Stream Are “Interesting”? Event Refinement Example (Association & Classification):

Hypothesis Generation (HG) Processing incoming events, data and reports Hypothesis: This Group of Events May Represent Fraud Output: Fraud Detection Scorecard or Matrix

Hypothesis Evaluation (HE) Evaluates Scorecard/Matrix for likelihood comparison Rank Evaluation: These Events have a Higher Likelihood of Fraud Output: Fills Scorecard/Matrix with relative likelihood estimation

Hypothesis Selection (HS) Evaluates Scorecard/Matrix for best fit into “badges of fraud” Evaluation: Provide an Estimate (Name) of the Fraudulent Activity Output: Assignment of fraudulent activity estimate to event


CEP Level 2 – Situation Refinement

What is the Context of the Identified Events? Focuses on Relationships and States Among Events Situation Refinement

Event-Event Relationship Networks Temporal and State Relationships Geographic or Topological Proximity Environmental Context

Example: Brand currently used by phishing site in Internet increasing probability of fraud and identity theft

Event / Activity Correlation – Relational Networks Pattern, Profile and Signature Recognition Processing Question: Do “Complex Events” == “Situations”?


CEP Level 3 – Impact Assessment

Predict Intention of Subject (Fraudster example) Make changes to account identity information? Transfer funds out of account? Test for access and return at later time?

Estimate Capabilities of Fraudster Organized Gang or Individual Fraudster? Expert or Novice?

Estimate Potential Losses if Successful Identify Other Threat Opportunities


CEP Level 4 – Process Refinement

Evaluate Process Performance and Effectiveness Exception Detection, Response Efficiency and Mitigation Knowledge Development

Identify Changes to System Parameters Adjust Event Stream Processing Variables Fine Tune Filters, Algorithms and Correlators

Determine If Other Source Specific Resources are Required

Recommend Allocation and Direction of Resources


CEP - Database Management Examples

Reference Database User Profiles Activity and Event Signatures and Profiles Environmental Profiles

Inference Database Subject Identification Situation and Threat Assessment Knowledge Mining

Referential Mapping Database Examples Mapping Between IP Address and Domain Mapping Between Known Anonymous Proxies


CEP Level 5 – User Interface / Interaction

Operational Visualization at all “Levels” Dynamic Graphical Representations of Situations Supports the Decision Making Process of Analytics Personnel

Process and Resource Control Supports Resource Allocation and Process Refinement

Display Control & Personalization Different Operator Views Based on Job Function and Situation


Our Agenda




Open Discussion


Processing Patterns

BusinessContext

InferenceProcessingTechniques



Inference Algorithms for Event-Decision Processing

A sample of event-decision processing algorithms relevant to CEP:

Rule-Based Inference Bayesian Belief Networks (Bayes Nets) Dempster-Shafer’s Method Adaptive Neural Networks Cluster Analysis State-Vector Estimation

Key Takeaway: Analytics for CEP exist in the art & science of mature multi-sensor data fusion processing - these analytics can be mapped to recurring business patterns.


Business Context Inference Processing Techniques

Classical InferenceBayesian Belief Networks

Hidden Markov Models Dempster-Shafer’s Method

Self-Organizing Feature MapsState-Vector Estimation

Adaptive Neural NetworksRule-Based Inference

Sensor OptimizationComplex DiagnosticsFraud Detection Intrusion DetectionNetwork ManagementCounterterrorismOpportunistic TradingCompliance MonitoringSupply Chain Optimization

Map Business Context to Classical MethodsNote: For Illustrative Purposes Only


Bayes Net: Identity Theft Detection / Phishing

UsesProxy

AlertService

Account

Lockout

ProfileMismatchBrand

Phishing

AlertSecurity

AlertCustomer

KnownFraud

IP

IdentityTheft

LoginSuccess

PhishingAlert

BrandMisuse

Source: Bass, T., TIBCO Software Inc., January 2006


Bayes Net: Simple Web-Click Behavior

Click Pg

Subtype

ClickElapse

d

Associate Session ID

StoresVisited

Click Pg

Type

Click toPurchase

SessionTime

# ItemsPurchased

IDBrowser

RecognizeSession

IDOS

TotalPurchase

Session IDCode

ClickPrice

Price

ClickCount

Source: Ambrosio, B., CleverSet Inc., December 2004


Recurring Pattern(s) for PredictiveBusinessTM

Bayesian Techniques for Complex Event Processing in: SPAM Filtering Telecommunications Fraud Other Behavior-Based Fraud & Intrusion Detection Financial Risk Management Credit Approval and Credit Limit Automation Medical Diagnosis Military ID, Command and Control

BNs dominate many other areas in Complex Event Processing Graphical representation of your domain knowledge Both causality and probability reside in the models Well established as a knowledge processing technique


Event-Decision Processing Characteristics

JDL Model Levels

Association Process

Estimation Process

Entity Estimate

Activity

(L4) Process Refinement

Planning (Control) (Action) Decision Making

(L3) Impact Assessment

Aggregation Plan Interaction

Effect (situation, given plan)

Impact Assessment

(L2) Situation Refinement

Aggregation Relational Aggregation (situation)

Situation Assessment

(L1) Event Refinement

Assignment Attribution Individual Event Event Processing

(L0) Event Preprocessing

Assignment Detection Sensor Output Sensor Processing

Adapted (this and the next slide) from: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., Handbook of Multisensor Data Fusion, CRC Press, 2001


Comparison of Event-Decision Models

JDL Model Levels

Waterfall Model

Boyd Loop

Sense & Respond

Intelligence Cycle

Activity

(L5) Visualization

Act Respond Disseminate Decision Execution

(L4) Process Refinement

Decision Making

Decide Decide Disseminate Decision Making

(L3) Impact Assessment

--- Orient Analyze Evaluate Impact Assessment

(L2) Situation Refinement

Situation Assessment

Orient Analyze Evaluate Situation Assessment

(L1) Event Refinement

Pattern Processing /

Feature Extraction

Orient Detect Collate Event Processing

(L0) Event Preprocessing

Sensor Processing

Orient Detect Collate Sensor Processing

--- Sensing Observe Sense Collect Sensor Acquisition


Key Takeaways

Event Processing can be a Computationally Intensive CEP Requires a Number of Technologies:

Distributed Computing, Publish/Subscribe and SOA Hierarchical, Cooperative Inference Processing High Speed, Real Time Rules Processing with State Management Event-Decision Architecture for Complex Events / Situations

CEP Community Needs Common Vocabulary and Functional Architecture based on Established Inference Models

Processing Patterns for CEP Need to be Developed based on using a Common Vocabulary and Functional Architecture

Thank You!

Tim Bass, CISSPPrincipal Global [email protected]

Complex Event Processing at TIBCO

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.tibco.com/software/business_optimization/cep.jsp


JDL Example: Inference ScoreCards

Event Stream

Raw

Dat

a

Level 0Pre-Processing

Fraud Events

Even

t Str

eam

Level 1Event

Refinement

ScoreCard

Fraud Situations

Frau

d Ev

ents

Level 2Situation

Assessment

Business Impact

Frau

dSi

tuat

ionsLevel 3

ImpactAssessment

ScoreCard

ScoreCard

ScoreCard

Event Source

Task

Level 4Process

RefinementScoreCard

Modified from: Steinberg, A., & Bowman, C., CRC Press, 2001

Patterns for PredictiveBusiness(TM)

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