Patrick Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

Patrick Kelly

National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

October 29, 2009

Making Place Matter

The National Goal

“By 2020, America will once again have the highest proportion of college graduates

in the world”President Obama, February 24, 2009

Percent of Adults with a College Degree by Age-Group (2006)

AK

AR

DE

GA

HIIL

IN IAKS

LAME

MDMA

MTNE

NV NJNY

NC ND

OHOK

ORPARI

SCSD

VT

VAWA

US

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MIMN

MS

MONH

NMTN

TX

UTWV

WI

WY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

Personal Income

Per Capita

Percent of Adults 25 to 64 with Bachelors Degrees

1980

Correlation = 0.64

Educational Attainment and Personal Income

AK

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN IAKS

LA

ME

MD MA

MT

NE

NV

NJNY

NC

ND

OHOR

PA RI

SC SD

VT

VAWAUS

AL

CA

CO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WIWY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

1990

Personal Income

Per Capita


Correlation = 0.76

OK


AK

AR

DE

GA HI

IL

IN IAKS

LA

ME

MD

MA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC

ND

OH OR

PA RI

SCSD

VT

VAWA

US

AL

CACO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TN

TX

UT

WV

WIWY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

AZ

2000

Personal Income

Per Capita


Correlation = 0.80

OK


AK

AZ

AR

DE

GA

HI

IL

IN IAKS

LA

ME

MDMA

MT

NE

NV

NJ

NY

NC NDOH

OK

OR

PA RI

SC

SD VT

VA

WAUS

AL

CACO

CT

FL

IDKY

MI

MN

MS

MO

NH

NM

TNTX

UTWV

WI

WY

$15,000

$22,000

$29,000

$36,000

$43,000

$50,000

10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

2005

Personal Income

Per Capita


Correlation = 0.83


1

2

3

4

5

76

8

9

10 1112

13

14

15

1. Northwest/Panhandle2. Southwest3. South Central/Lawton4. El Reno/Chickasha5. Enid/Ponca City6. Oklahoma City Metro7. Guthrie/Shawnee8. Norman/Moore9. Southern10.Osage/Stillwater/Seminole11. Tulsa County12. Rogers/Waggoner13. Northeast14. Eastern15. Southeast

Oklahoma Regions for “Making Place Matter” Data

U.S. Census Bureau’s Public UseMicrodata Samples

Logan

Cleveland

Pottawatomie

Atoka

PittsburgHughes

Seminole

Okfuskee

Okmulgee

Greer

Roger Mills

Ellis

Woodward

Major

Mcclain

JeffersonCarter

Murray

Love

Le Flore

Haskell

Sequoyah

Muskogee

CherokeeAdairWagoner

Tulsa

Rogers

WoodsAlfalfaBeaver

Beckham

Blaine

Bryan

Caddo

Canadian

Choctaw

Cimarron

CoalComanche

Cotton

Craig

Creek

Custer

Delaware

Dewey

Garfield

Garvin

Grady

Grant

Harmon

Harper

Jackson

Johnston

Kay

Kingfisher

Kiowa Latimer

Lincoln

Marshall

Mayes

Mccurtain

Mcintosh

Noble

Nowata

Oklahoma

Osage

Ottawa

Pawnee

Payne

Pontotoc

PushmatahaStephens

Texas

Tillman

Washington

Washita

Northeastern State University – Counties that Account for 80% of In-State First-Time Students (Fall 2008)

Source: Oklahoma State Regents for Higher Education

County First-Time Students

% of All FT

Cherokee 197 21.8%Muskogee 99 11.0%Tulsa 92 10.2%Adair 72 8.0%Wagoner 62 6.9%Delaware 55 6.1%Rogers 47 5.2%Sequoyah 42 4.7%Mayes 39 4.3%

Educational Attainment of 18 to 24 Year Olds, 2005-07

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (ACS) Three-Year Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) File.

Educational Attainment of 25 to 64 Year Olds, 2005-07


Educational Attainment (%) of 25 to 64 Year Olds by Race/Ethnicity, 2005-07 (Eastern Region)


Sources: NCES: Common Core Data; IPEDS Enrollment, Completions, and Graduation Rate Surveys, U.S. Census Bureau

White African-American Hispanic

Target Populations Participation and Completion Cohort Graduation Rate

High SchoolGraduates, 2001-

2002 (ServiceArea)

% 18-24 YearOlds with Just a

High SchoolDiploma or

Equivalent, 2000(Service Area)

First-TimeFreshman, Fall

2005 (Institution)

All OtherUndergraduates,

Fall 2005(Institution)

Bachelors DegreesAwarded 2004-05

(Institution)

Graduation Rates(Completers within

150% of ProgramTime), 2005(Institution)

University in Missouri – Racial/Ethnic Representation of a Public Four-Year University’s Target Population: Participation, Completion, and Graduation Rates

The Circular Argument

Degree Production

Economic Strength Workforce Demand

A more educated citizenry leads to more entrepreneurship, small business development, and ability to attract outside business.

The current industry base has shortages that need to be filled in certain areas. But overall workforce demand may not call for that many more college graduates.

A stronger economy creates more demand for educated workers.

Note: The above ignores all of the other benefits associated with an educated population – larger tax base, better health, greater civic engagement, fewer incarcerations, etc.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (ACS) Three-Year File.

Percentage Employment by Industry, 2005-07

Percentage Employment by Occupation, 2005-07

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (ACS) Three-Year File.

Median Earnings by Degree-Level, 2005-07


Increase in Earnings from a High School Diploma to a College Degree, 2005-07


Average Annual Net Migration by Degree-Level (2005-2007) 22-64 Year Olds (Eastern Region)


Bachelors Degree or Higher

Age 16+ Average Annual Migration by Occupation Group, 2005-07(Eastern Region)


Management & Professional

Patrick KellyNCHEMS

[email protected]

21

Patrick Kelly National Center for Higher Education Management Systems

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