Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda ...

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Individual Assignment Final Report

Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management

January 2019

CATHERINE MBABAZI

Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda:

Translating Policy into Action

Mentor (s):

Writing Supervisor (s)

Dr. Nelson MusobaProf. Freddie Ssengooba

Dr. Richard Mangwi

Individual Assignment Final Report

Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management

CATHERINE MBABAZI

Ministry of Health of the Republic of Uganda

Makerere University College of Health Sciences – School of Public Health, Kampala, Uganda

Institute of Tropical Medicine, Antwerp, Belgium

February, 2019

Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda:

Translating Policy into Action

Mentor (s):

Writing Supervisor (s)

Dr. Nelson MusobaProf. Freddie Ssengooba

Dr. Richard Mangwi

AcknowledgementsI acknowledge the technical guidance of Dr Nelson Musoba and the Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management Coordination Team (Prof Christopher Orach, Dr Christine Tashobya, Dr Richard Mangwi Ayiasi, Dr Elizabeth Nabiwemba, Dr Valéria Campos da Silveira) for their valuable comments that improved the design and implementation of this study.

My sincere appreciation goes to Prof Freddie Ssengooba for his valuable guidance throughout the conceptualization and review of this study. My appreciation to the Supporting Policy Engagements and Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda Project Team for review of the proposal and catalytic funding, in particular Dr Aloysius Ssennyonjo, Grace Ikirimat and Dr Christine Nabiryo for reviewing my work.

Acknowledgement and appreciation to the National Planning Authority (Dr J. Ssekamatte, J. Mutabazi, S. Nahalamba), the National Population Council (Charles Zirarema, Dr Betty Kyaddondo, Simon Peter Alele), and the UNFPA (Florence Tagoola) technical team for their valued input into the study.

Special recognition to the Institute of Tropical Medicine in Antwerp, Belgium, for technical and financial support to the Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management.

Assessment Report | Pathways to Harnessing the Demographic Dividend in Uganda: Translating Policy into Action Jan 2019

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Operational Definitionsi. Demographic Dividend: is the economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population’s

age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share of the population (14 and younger, and 65 and older (Bloom et al., 2003; Mason 2001). A boost in economic productivity that occurs when there are growing numbers of people in the workforce relative to the number of dependents (Canning et.al, 2015). UNFPA (2015) stated that “a country with both increasing numbers of young people and declining fertility has the potential to reap a demographic dividend.” Four mechanisms for growth in the demographic dividend.

The demographic dividend can accrue through four mechanisms: -

a) Increased labour supply. The magnitude of this benefit appears to be dependent on the ability of the economy to absorb and productively employ the extra workers rather than be a pure demographic gift.

b) Increase in savings. As the number of dependents decreases, individuals can save more. This increase in national savings rates increases the stock of capital in developing countries already facing shortages of capital and leads to higher productivity as the accumulated capital is invested.

c) Human capital. Decreases in fertility rates result in healthier women and fewer economic pressures at home. This also allows parents to invest more resources per child, leading to better health and educational outcomes.

d) Growth in domestic demand brought about by the increasing GDP per capita and the decreasing dependency ratio.

ii. Plan: It is a document detailing intended actions that a country/ an organization/ an institution needs to perform, including all the critical elements, in order to achieve a set of goals. Strategic

iii. Planning System: It is a structured process (a management function) that is designed to organize and coordinate the activities of the managers who do the planning. An effective strategic planning system requires “situational design”. It must take into account the institutional situation to provide solutions (Peter Lorange and Richard F. Vanci, 1976) https://hbr.org/topic/strategic-planning

iv. Integrating/mainstreaming the demographic dividend (DD) in plans: Incorporating the DD drivers, indicators and actions as described in the 2040 Vision (NPA, 2010) the National Development Plan (NPA, 2015), the DD Study Report (NPA, 2014) and the National Road Map for Harnessing the DD (NPC, 2018) into development plans.

v. Demographic Dividend Compliant Plan: A national / sector / agency / local government development plans that addresses indicators approved in the National Standard Indicator Framework & DD driver’s integration compliance guidelines.

vi. Demographic Burden: is the ratio of the number of persons under working age and over working age per 1000 people of working age.

vii. Youth Bulge: A scenario where a country has a population of young people (15-29 years) comprising more than 30 percent of the total population.

viii. Age Dependency Ratio: It is an indicator of the economic burden that the productive population must bear. Populations with very high birth rates coupled with low death rates have a high age dependency ratio. Uganda dependency ratio is 103, implying that for every 100 economically active persons, there are 103 dependents (NHPC, 2014).

ix. Outcome-based budgeting: A budget process that aligns resources/funding with expected results. It increases visibility into how government policies translate into spending and focuses on the outcomes


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of a funded activity, i.e. the quality or effectiveness of services provided based on what matter most to citizens. It is a practice most government ministries do of suggesting and listing programme or scheme estimated outcomes while preparing their budget before submitting it to the Ministry of Finance.

x. Population dynamics are changes that arise from the interaction between fertility, mortality and migration, giving rise to the changes in population size, its age structure and spatial distribution. (Ashraf Q.H. et al, 2013).

xi. Total Fertility rate (TFR) is the number of live births a woman would have if she survived to the end of her child bearing age (15-49 years) and experienced the current observed age specific fertility rates.


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Acronyms and AbbreviationsAU – African Union

AWP - Annual Work Plan

BFP - Budget Frame Work Paper

CNDPF- Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework

DD – Demographic Dividend

FY – Financial Year

ICT- Information, Communication and Technology

JLOS- Justice, Law and Order Sector

LG – Local Governments

LHPUD- Lands, Housing, Planning & Urban Development Sector

MDAs- Ministries, Departments and Agencies

NDP- National Development Plan

NPA- National Planning Authority

NPC – National Population Council

NPPAP - National Population Policy Action Plan

PSA - Population Situation Analysis

POPSEC – Population Secretariat – now National Population Council (NPC)

SDGs – Sustainable Development Goals

SDPs- Sector Development Plans

SIPs- Sector Investment Plans

SPEED- Supporting Policy Engagements and Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda

ICT- Information Communication Technology


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Executive Summary Uganda has one of the most youthful populations in the world with nearly half of the population consisting of children below age 15 (47.9) while young population below 30 years of age account for 78% of the total population (Canning et al., 2015). The current structure of young people presents both an opportunity and a challenge. It is a challenge because of high child age dependency ratio (100:103) but also an opportunity if the country nurtures and takes advantage youthful population “harnessing the population bonus or demographic dividend that accrue from the population bulge”.

The National Development Plan II 2015/16-2019/20 (NDPII) adopted harnessing the DD as one of the strategies for achieving the Vision 2040 development goal “to transform Uganda’s population from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years”, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) increasing from US$ 506 in 2010 to US $9,500 by 2040 (NPA, 2015).

This study examined the extent of responsiveness of the national and local government development plans conscious consideration of the demographic dividend (DD) drivers articulated in NPD II policy objective of enhancing Human Capital Development. We reviewed existing national plans including Vision 2040, NDPII, NBFP and NDPII Certificates of Compliance; Sectoral Plans: ICT, Tourism, Social Development, Health and Agriculture; and Local Government Plans: Yumbe, Dokolo, Lwengo, Kabale, Yumbe, Moyo, Maracha, Nakapiripirit, Adjumani and Fort Portal Municipality

The results show that, while demographic dividend drivers are systematically and consciously mainstreamed in Vison 2040 and NPDII, gaps exist at sectoral and local government level development planning. This finding is consistent with the results of the certificate of compliance for the Annual Budget FY2015/16 (NPA, 2016) conducted every year to strengthen NDPII implementation towards realization of its objectives. The certificate of compliance report showed that Macro level GDP growth and per capita targets are consistent with NPDII objective of attaining a middle-income status. However, at the NDPII national strategic level, the annual budget provided to support employment creation is still below the desired targets. Similarly, major priorities under the objective for enhancing human capital development remained unfunded.

At sectoral and Ministries, Departments & agency (MDA) levels, the analysis of the certificate of expenditure report revealed that only 8 (Tourism SDP, Health, ICT, Public Administration, JLOS, Accountability, LHPUD & Energy Minerals & Petroleum) out of the 17 sectors had sector development plans (SDPs). And only 3 (Public Administration, ICT and Tourism) out of the 8 sector development plans were aligned to NDP II objectives content and time frame.

As a part of the process to standardise measures for DD mainstreaming, process of developing DD compliance criteria for assessing development plans at national, sectoral and local government levels was initiated. A draft theory of change, results framework and indicators were proposed. In the subsequent steps, the theory of change and results areas as well as indicators were presented to national stakeholders for approval. The criteria were approved and adopted as DD standardized criteria to guide mainstreaming and assessment of DD drivers in policies, plans, programmes and initiatives at all levels.


Contents

Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 04

Operational Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 05

Acronyms and Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 07

Executive Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 08

INTRODUCTION

1.1 Problem Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

1.2 Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

1.2.1 Overall objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

1.2.2 Specific objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2

2 PERSPECTIVE

3. Methodological Approach (Process)

3.1 Phase I Conceptualization, problem identification, synthesis of problem analysis and prioritization of the problem to be tackled . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

3.1.1 Development of the research protocol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .8

3.1.2 Development of assessment criteria for evaluating DD compliance in national and local government development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .9

3.1.2.1 Draft tool and assessment criteria for evaluating the development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

3.2 Application of the tool and criteria on selected national, sectoral and local government development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14

4. FINDINGS

4.1 Availability of development plans at national and subnational levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

4.2 Planning guidelines at national and subnational levels . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

4.3 The Certificate of Compliance for 2015-16 Annual Budgets for Uganda on mainstreaming population issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15

4.4 Extent of mainstreaming DD within overarching national development frameworks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

4.5 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in sector development plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . 16

4.6 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in Local Government Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

4.7 Expert review of findings of the draft report . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

5.0 Phase II: Solution Design and Implementation: Development of a standardised national DD compliance assessment criteria . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .20

5.1 Drafting the Theory of Change (TOC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20

Lessons Learnt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23

5. CONCLUSIONS

6. RECOMMENDATIONS

7. REFERENCES

ANNEXES

Annex 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29

Annex II . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Annex III . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31

RECOMENDATIONS

APPENDICES

Appendix 1: Work plan for study activities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Appendix 2: Planned Study Budget for phase 1- Funding source anticipated (SPEED Project) . . . . . . . . . . . 33

Appendix 3: Questionnaire for both members and never joined/ non-members of ICOCARE scheme . . . . 33

Appendix 4: Study questionnaire: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37

Appendix 5: Focus Group Discussions Guide- Mobilisers and staff ICOCARE . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Appendex 6: key informant interview Guide with scheme managers and providers . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Appendix 7: Focus Group Discussion Guide with scheme drop outs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Appendix 8: Focus Group Discussion Guide with community mobilisers and staff of ICOBI . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Appendix 9: Key Informant Interview Guide with service provider’s managers and Administrators . . . . . 40

Appendix 10; FGD Guide with ICOCARE scheme drop outs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41

Appendix 11: Sample calculation and selection of respondents . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42

APPENDIX 5: MAP OF SHEEMA DISTRICT-STUDY AREA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43

REFERENCES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46


List of Tables

Table 1: Methodological Approach (steps, Methods & outputs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5

Table 2: Draft Assessment Criteria for Evaluating the Development plans. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11

Table 3: Approved Assessment Criteria for Evaluating Development plans . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Table 4: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in National Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16

Table 5: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in Sector Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17

Table 6: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in District Development Plans for Uganda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

Table 7: Criteria for selecting the possible solution for your priority problem- Priority Matrix . . . . 29


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List of Figures

Figure 1:The current Structure of National Population Council Structure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Figure 2: Value Proposition for the Demographic Dividend Framework, 2015 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9

Figure 3:The Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) 2007 . . . . . . . . 10

Figure 4:Draft Theory of Change to guide mainstreaming the implementation of the DD drivers in Development Plans, Programmes & Initiatives at National & Subnational levels.(Adapted from Demographic transition, human capital formation, and social and economic change— A framework, Reher D.S (2011) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

Figure 5: Priority Problem-Fish born technique analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30

Figure 6: Diagrammatic presentation of the methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31


1INTRODUCTION

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Recent global debates defining the agenda for Population and Development Programme of Action beyond 2014 (“ICPD Beyond 2014 Review Process,” n.d.) and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (UN, 2015) have underscored the importance of harnessing the Demographic Dividend (DD) in providing an opportunity for advancing multiple SDG and targets. In 2017, the African Union (AU) endorsed a road map for realizing the DD through investments in the youth population (“AU 2017 DD ROADMAP Final - EN_2.pdf,” n.d.) as a foundation for improving the quality of life of the population through investments in human capital development, especially the youth.

The demographic dividend or demographic window of opportunity describes the economic benefit earned by a country as a result of changes in a population’s age structure (Canning et.al, 2015) due to a relatively large proportion of working age people, and effective investment made in their health, education as well as employment. The changes in age structure results from a demographic transition, which is a period when a country experiences rapid decline in child mortality, followed by decline in fertility, thus producing a “bulge” generation (Ashraf et al., 2013). The bulge ushers a country into a period of having a large number of working-age people and a smaller number of dependents. Having a large number of workers per capita gives a boost to the economy provided if there are labor opportunities provided for the workers (Karra et al., 2015)

A demographic window of opportunity is not automatic, its earned and time bound. One of the major drivers of realizing the DD is reducing the rapid fertility rate which should be done alongside implementing interventions to increase child survival and increasing girl’s education. Equally important is human capital development through quality education, skills development, and enhancing a healthy and productive labour force. Job creation as well as employment through industrialization and value addition should be guaranteed to absorb the working population.

Evidence available in Uganda (UDHS, 2016 and

UNHPC, 2014) shows that fertility is declining at a much slower rate to reduce the level of dependents for the DD to occur. In Uganda, the total fertility rate (TFR) declined from 7.1 children per woman in 1991 to 5.8 in 2014. There is thus need to rapidly reduce fertility to at least 2.2 children per woman by 2040. The persistent high fertility rates have contributed to a rapid population growth rate of 3.0 percent per year and associated age dependency ratio of 103, implying that for every 100 economically active persons, there are 103 dependents, an indicator of economic burden. Consequently, nearly half (48 %) of Uganda’s population are children below age 15 while young population below 30 years of age account for 78% of the total population. The potential of harnessing the DD lies in improving the quality of this segment of the population, the future labour force.

To realise the potential of DD in Uganda, strategic planning and preparation is required to facilitate reduction of child /youth dependency through an effective family planning program, child survival strategies and keeping girls in school at all levels. In addition, promote economic policies that take advantage of the changing population age structure to benefit from the increasing labour force. But also continuously formulate, review and implement policies that strengthen financial institutions and encourage savings to channel the rising incomes into domestic savings and investments that further fuel economic growth and development (Canning et.al, 2015).

The National Development Plan II 2015/16-2019/20 (NDPII) adopted harnessing the DD as one of the strategies for achieving the Vision 2040 development goal “to transform Uganda’s population from a peasant to a modern and prosperous country within 30 years”, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) increasing from US$ 506 in 2010 to US $9,500 by 2040 (NPA, 2015). This is articulated under the human capital development pillar. It is cognizant of the importance of developing human capital especially the young population, who are a major input into sustainable and inclusive economic development.


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The FY 2015/16 Budget marked the first year of implementation of the NDPII. Therefore, government sectors, ministries, and agencies had a responsibility to operationalise the human capital development objective through strategic and systemized processes that allow a holistic approach to address the growing population and associated drivers in the sector development plans. This should further be cascaded to local government development plans and planning guidelines. However, harmonised and common understanding of what constitute the demographic dividend, how it should be cascaded in the plans and budgets is limited. This study focus on assessing the readiness and responsiveness of government development plans for 2016/2020 in providing a firm foundation and mechanisms to enhance accelerated demographic transition and realizing the demographic dividend in Uganda

1.1 Problem StatementIn-spite of the on-going initiatives on popularization of the demographic dividend concept at national and district levels, the extent which on-going initiatives have been translated into actions and interventions in plans, programmes and initiatives is not systematically documented. According to Dalton (1989), development plans remain one of the planner’s primary tools to influence future growth and development. Planning documents are indicative of the commitment of action by government authorities (Saatvika Rai, 2016). However, research in the field of policy implementation is still uncommon (McDonald et al, 2003) while there is an increasing expectation that development plans should deliver on national priorities.

The NDPII Certificate of Compliance (2016) recommends alignment to NPDII priorities of all sectors, it did not include demographic dividend specific indicators. There is need to document the extent which the demographic dividend drivers have been mainstreamed and to understand how the on-going initiatives included the DD objectives in sectoral and local government development plans. The extent the various actors (state and non-state) are aware of their roles and responsibilities is not systematically organized, coordinated or communicated. Tools to guide and assess mainstreaming of DD drivers specific to Uganda situation are not well developed.

1.2 Objectives

1.2.1 Overall objectiveThe overall objective of this study is to assess the integration of DD drivers in national, sectoral and Local Government Development Plans, programmes and initiatives.

1.2.2 Specific objectivesThe specific objectives are the following:

i. To develop criteria for assessment of DD drivers mainstreaming in development plans;

ii. To apply the criteria to selected national, sectoral and local government plans and guidelines including the 2016/17 Budget Frame Paper (BFP);

iii. To contribute to the development of national standardised DD compliance criteria for integration in the NDPII Certificate of compliance for evaluating development plans alignment with NDP objectives


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2The National Population Council (NPC) is a government institution responsible for guiding the mainstreaming of the DD drivers and other population concerns in development plans, programmes and initiatives at all levels of government (ministries, departments and agencies, local governments (LGs), including civil society organizations (CSOs), faith based organizations (FBOs), cultural Institutions, private sector and development partners.

The NPC and its secretariat, subject to the provisions under the 2014 Population Act, is headed by the Chair of the Council, a technical Director General and five directors (see Figure 1). The author holds the position of Senior National Programme Officer in the Policy, Planning and Programmes Directorate.

Figure 1:The current Structure of National Population Council Structure

National Population Council (NPC) Chair & Comittee Members

Director General

Policy, Planning, Programmes

Information & Communication

Monitoring & Evaluation

Finance & Adminstration

Family Health

Source: The National Population Council Act, 2014

NPC business and management operations are working with sectors, local governments and other partners to: (i) influence integration or mainstreaming of population variables such as the DD in strategies, programmes and development plans; (ii) ensure active participation of the population in all steps of development planning processes; (iii) ensure that specific population segments are targets of actions for development; (iv) integrate research in interactions between demographic system and social, cultural, economic systems and environment; and (v) set coherence of population policies and other development policies (social, etc.).

The NPC and the National Planning Authority (NPA) are the lead institutions for the oversight, the coordination and guiding efforts towards DD mainstreaming in development plans. The NPC has the mandate of providing technical frameworks to guide mainstreaming populations issues, including the DD. The NPA is responsible for enhancing national compliance of plans and guidelines in the overall development planning framework.

2 PERSPECTIVE

3. Methodological Approach (Process) 3The methodological approach to this study involved a mix of methods and actions. The approach followed guidelines from the Fellowship Programme in Health Systems Management (FPHSM) under which this task was undertaken. The study adopted a sequential approach in addressing the objectives. Each of objective had different methods. Findings of one stage informed the subsequent one. It is structured into two phases:

• Phase I: Initial conceptualization of the problem, identification, prioritization of strategic issues to be addressed and analysis.

• Phase II: Designing the solution (or the intervention) and its implementation.

The research questions in this study are (i) how have the national, sector and LG development plans addressed the DD drivers? (ii) Have the plans explicitly taken into consideration the sector specific DD drivers in the situation analysis? (iii) How have the DD issues identified in the situation analysis been mainstreamed in sector interventions to seize the once in a lifetime opportunity of harnessing the DD for the benefit of transformation of Uganda?

The sampling of the development plans was based on availability of approved plan by NPA or Local Government Council. Four national plans: Vision 2040, NDPII, NBFP and NDPII Certificates of Compliance; Five sectoral plans: ICT, Tourism, Social Development, Health and Agriculture and Ten Local Government plans: Yumbe, Dokolo, Lwengo, Kabale, Yumbe, Moyo, Maracha, Nalapiripirit, Adjumani and Fort Portal Municipalities. The compliance study conducted by the NPA, only 8 sectors had approved plans (NPA, 2016); the rest of the sectors had either draft development plans or none. A similar pattern existed for the local governments. This affected the sampling procedure. As a result, this study utilized available plans only.

The methodological approach to the study is summarized in table 1 below and brief discussion in detail in the sections that follows.


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Table 1: Methodological A

pproach (steps, Methods &

outputs)

StepsM

ethod/process

ToolsO

utput

Phase I: Initial conceptualization of the problem, identification, prioritization of strategic issues to be addressed and analysis

A) D

evelopment of the

research protocol Conducted Situation A

nalysis of (NPC) &

how it relates to health

system. Th

e purpose was to identify issues/gaps for further

assessment

Conducted Initial consultations with key individuals from

N

PC & N

PA to build consensus on the relevance of the study.

Recom

mendations m

ade informed the fram

ing of the topic and problem

analysis.o D

efinition of the Problem. W

hat is DD

, is it understood the same

way &

what is extent of m

ainstreaming in D

evelopment Plans

o Idea of developing a tool/criteria for assessing the plans conceived

o Conducted Review

of technical literature on the harnessing the dem

ographic dividend; the plan evaluation criteria, components

of a quality plan and components of planning fram

eworks.

o Gov’t Planning D

ocuments

o The 2014 R

eport on Harnessing the D

D in U

ganda

o Literature on phases of the demographic transition, global &

regional experiences on w

hat has worked and w

hat has not w

orked

o Literature on Population Situation Analysis tools (PSA

); H

ealth in all policies. These inform

ed the draft evaluation tool/criteria for assessing D

D integration in the plans

Discussion check list

Key inform

ant interviews

Desk review

using check list and google search U

RL

Problem

identified, protocol developed and approved.

Ideas and outlook of evaluation criteria checklist generated


6

B) T

o de

velo

p as

sess

men

t/ev

alua

tion

cri

teri

a fo

r mai

nstr

eam

ing

and

eval

uati

ng

DD

com

plia

nce

in n

atio

nal a

nd

loca

l gov

ernm

ent

deve

lopm

ent p

lans

The

met

hods

use

d w

ere

desk

lite

ratu

re re

view

usi

ng G

oogl

e se

arch

en

gine

.a)

R

espo

nse

Plan

ning

lite

ratu

re; Th

e ev

alua

tion

cri

teri

a th

eore

tica

l fr

amew

orks

and

pop

ulat

ion

inte

grat

ion

tool

s; G

over

nmen

t doc

umen

ts

(ND

PII,

Vis

ion

2040

; DD

Rep

ort;

DD

Roa

dmap

; ND

PII C

erti

ficat

e of

co

mpl

ianc

e; N

atio

nal B

FP)

b) S

ynth

esis

e th

e co

mm

ents

and

upd

ate

the

crite

ria

Che

cklis

t of t

heor

etic

al

fram

ewor

ks o

n pl

an e

valu

atio

ns

crite

ria,

DD

and

pop

ulat

ion

inte

grat

ion

tool

s

Expe

rts’

mee

ting

s in

clud

ing

the

acad

emic

men

tor f

rom

Uga

nda

Aid

s Co

mm

issi

on (U

AC),

Nat

iona

l Po

pula

tion

Cou

ncil

Staff

, Nat

iona

l Pl

anni

ng A

utho

rity

, Mak

erer

e U

nive

rsit

y –

Popu

lati

on a

nd

appl

ied

stat

isti

cs D

epar

tmen

t (C

PAS)

and

Exp

ert o

pini

on fr

om

Scho

ol o

f Pub

lic H

ealth

& S

PEED

te

am

DD

ass

essm

ent

crite

ria

draf

ted

and

the

pre-

test

ed

Crite

ria

and

tool

up

date

d &

fina

lised

C) T

o ap

ply

the

asse

ssm

ent c

rite

ria

to s

elec

ted

nati

onal

, se

ctor

al a

nd lo

cal

gove

rnm

ent p

lans

, pl

anni

ng g

uide

lines

in

clud

ing

2016

/17

BFP

and

ND

PII

Cert

ifica

te o

f Co

mpl

ianc

e.

• D

esk

asse

ssm

ent o

f the

dev

elop

men

t pla

ns w

as d

one

• A

naly

sis o

f the

extr

acte

d da

ta u

tilis

ed th

e fra

mew

ork f

or a

naly

sing

in

ter-

sect

oral

act

ions

in th

e Afr

ica

Reg

ion

to ex

amin

e im

plem

enti

ng

of H

ealth

in a

ll Po

licie

s by

WH

O R

egio

nal O

ffice

201

3) se

e ta

ble

of

findi

ngs.

• Th

e fir

st d

raft

of

repo

rt s

ubje

cted

to

the

NPC

/NPA

for

rev

iew

, va

lidat

ion

and

appr

oval

in a

mee

ting

at

NPC

, in

a pa

rtic

ipat

ory

proc

ess,

obs

erva

tion

s m

ade

incl

ude.

a)

App

ropr

iate

ness

cri

teri

a us

ed fo

r ass

essm

ent o

f pla

ns w

as li

mite

d in

ch

arac

teri

stic

s of

a g

ood

crite

ria.

A g

ood

crite

rion

sho

uld

be te

stab

le

(ver

ifiab

le) c

lear

(con

cise

, sho

rt, s

impl

e, p

reci

se, u

nder

stan

dabl

e,) a

nd

relia

bilit

y (c

onsi

sten

t).

b) B

ased

on

the

abov

e ob

serv

atio

ns a

gree

d to

revi

ew a

nd re

fine

the

crite

ria

to m

eet c

hara

cter

isti

cs o

f a g

ood

crite

ria.

A te

am o

f 4 re

sear

cher

s pr

ogra

mm

e offi

cers

of f

rom

NPC

an

d M

akCP

AS

appl

ied

the

crite

ria

to s

elec

ted

nati

onal

, sec

tora

l &

dist

rict

dev

elop

men

t pla

ns.

Expe

rts

mee

ting

Dat

a ex

trac

ted,

fir

st d

raft

repo

rt

pres

ente

d to

NPC

/N

PA fo

r val

idat

ion.

The

repo

rt a

ppro

ved

wit

h m

odifi

cati

on.

Phas

e II

: D

esig

ning

the

solu

tion

and

its

impl

emen

tati

on :

Dev

elop

a s

tand

ardi

sed

nati

onal

DD

com

plia

nce

asse

ssm

ent t

ool


7

To

revi

ew a

nd re

defin

e ap

prop

riat

enes

s of

DD

as

sess

men

t cri

teri

a

Thro

ugh

a pa

rtic

ipat

ory

and

cons

ulta

tive

pro

cess

wit

h se

lect

ed

seni

or te

chni

cal s

taff

from

the

NPC

, NPA

& S

PEED

sup

port

team

ad

vise

d on

the

step

s to

be

unde

rtak

en to

revi

ew D

D c

rite

ria.

i)

D

evel

opm

ent o

f DD

theo

ry o

f cha

nge.

The

purp

ose

of th

e th

eory

was

to il

lust

rate

the

path

way

s fo

r har

ness

ing

the

dem

ogra

phic

div

iden

d in

Uga

nda.

It a

lso

prov

ided

gui

danc

e re

sults

are

as fo

r int

egra

ted

DD

mul

ti-s

ecto

ral r

esul

ts fr

amew

ork

and

defin

ing

area

s fo

r ass

essm

ent.

ii)

Dev

elop

of a

DD

mul

ti-s

ecto

ral r

esul

ts F

ram

ewor

k. Th

e pu

rpos

e of

the

resu

lts fr

amew

ork

was

to fa

cilit

ate

syst

emic

and

ho

listi

c ap

proa

ch o

f sec

tora

l eng

agem

ent a

nd c

olla

bora

tion

in

mai

nstr

eam

ing

DD

dri

vers

in d

evel

opm

ent p

lans

.iii

) D

eter

min

e a

pack

age

of D

D in

dica

tors

bas

ed o

n th

e re

sults

ar

eas.

The

indi

cato

rs in

form

the

DD

ass

essm

ent c

rite

ria,

an

inpu

t to

ND

P II

com

plia

nce

asse

ssm

ent t

ool.

iv)

Dev

elop

DD

com

plia

nce

asse

ssm

ent c

rite

ria

(DD

sco

re c

ard)

v)

App

ly th

e ap

prov

ed to

ol o

n al

l tar

gete

d pl

ans.

vi)

Dev

elop

impl

emen

tati

on p

lan

on o

rien

tati

on o

f the

tool

and

DD

re

sults

fram

ewor

k.

Exp

ert O

pini

on

Che

cklis

t wit

h ar

eas

for

disc

ussi

on R

evie

w o

f con

cept

ual

unde

rpin

ning

s on

con

diti

ons

for h

arne

ssin

g th

e de

mog

raph

ic

divi

dend

suc

h as

Exi

stin

g th

eore

tica

l fra

mew

orks

on

dem

ogra

phic

tran

siti

on;

the

Com

preh

ensi

ve N

atio

nal

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

nnin

g Fr

amew

ork

(CN

DPF

); hu

man

ca

pita

l for

mat

ion

& s

ocia

l an

d ec

onom

ic c

hang

e (D

avid

S.

Reh

er, 2

011

; Eug

ene

Bard

ach,

20

12 &

Ken

t Bus

e et

.al)

Exp

ert d

iscu

ssio

n m

eeti

ngs

(NPA

, NPC

, S

ecto

ral &

Dis

tric

t Pla

nner

s m

eeti

ngs

to d

iscu

ss &

val

idat

e th

eory

of c

hang

e as

wel

l as

the

resu

lts F

W &

Indi

cato

rs)

A D

raft

Theo

ry

of C

hang

e co

nstr

ucte

d

Dra

ft D

D

inte

grat

ed re

sults

fr

amew

orks

dr

afte

d


8

3.1 Phase I Conceptualization, problem identification, synthesis of problem analysis and prioritization of the problem to be tackledThis phase covered the drafting of the study protocol, development of the criteria for assessing the plans, pretesting, approval and data collection.

3.1.1 Development of the research protocol In order to understand and identify the area of study, an organizational situation analysis of the NPC was done. The aim was to assess organization performance, understanding the factors behind the establishment of the NPC, its vision, mission, mandate and management operations. This was intended to help in the determination of the problem to study.

Institutional analysis of NPC was based on criteria adapted from the framework for analysing health system dynamics (Van Olmen et al., 2012). The criteria for assessing services provided by the NPC included timeliness, quality, continuity, existence of standard operating procedures (SOP), competences of personnel, functional coordination systems, responsiveness, workforce management and appropriate staffing levels to deliver expected services. Assessment of the management operations employed the leading and managing framework from Managers Who Lead handbook (Management Sciences for Health (Firm), 2005)A list of issues and concerns was generated in order to analyse for possible solutions:

a) Weak institutional coordination mechanisms, collaboration and identification of convergence areas at national, sectoral and local government levels associated with delays in passing the NPC Bill;

b) Limited mentoring and coaching of NPC staff on elements and processes of population integration with a view of creating a shared vision and improving work environment;

c) Limited standard operating procedures (SOPs) and adaptation of existing tools for integrating or mainstreaming population issues in development frameworks. The existing tools and SOPs were in draft format;

d) Lack of an integrated monitoring and evaluation (M&E) frameworks for measuring and assessing integration of population concerns in developing planning frameworks at national and subnational levels;

e) Limited communication tools targeting improvement of POPSEC visibility and popularization of the National Population Policy (NPP) and population programmes;

f) Lack of an institutional performance framework highlighting strategies for delivering implementation of the NPC strategic plan, NPP and National Population Action Plan;

g) Limited documentation mechanisms of achievements and lessons learnt since the POPSEC started advocacy for integration of population issues in national development frameworks.

Further synthesis of the generated issues was performed using the priority matrix criteria (Annex I) taking into account appropriateness in relation to national importance, technical and operational feasibility, contribution and support from key stakeholders, adaptability to local health policy and acceptability of the solution by the target population (See Annex I for details of the prioritisation process).

This facilitated the selection of a priority problem, which expressed as:

“Limited integration of population dynamics in development plans, programmes and initiatives, associated with limited guiding tools for mainstreaming these issues at all levels of planning.”

The priority problem was further analysed using the fish-bone tool to categorize factors influencing the problem what informed the framing of feasible solutions to be undertaken (see Annex II) The prioritized solution was the “assessment of the extent of integration of drivers of demographic dividend (DD) in development plans”.


9

3.1.2 Development of assessment criteria for evaluating DD compliance in national and local government development plansThe assessment criteria is building on the components of a quality plan and indicators (drivers) based on five pillars/objectives for accelerating the harnessing of the DD in Uganda. These include existing theoretical frameworks for plan evaluations, the national planning cycle, integration of population dynamics tools and studies on DD at global, regional and national levels. Numerous resources on plan evaluation provided a basis for the development of the criteria for assessing the extent of mainstreaming DD drivers in development plans in this study. These included Bardach E. (2012) on policy analysis and development of plan assessment criteria, evolutionary models, logic models and emerging system for integrating DD issues (Kellogg W.K., 1998). In addition, the population situation analysis (PSA) principles (UNFPA, 2010), enriched by studies on the Planning Process Model adapted from Alexander (1992); and criteria for empirical plan evaluation based on rational processes, democratic participation and representation of stakeholders (Gruft and Gutstein, 1972). Furthermore, the general plan evaluation framework by Baer (1997), with over 60 criteria analysing goals, procedural consistency (involvement of multi-governments, stakeholders), implementation and feedback was considered.

Studies from Reher D.S. (2005), Baer W.C. (2011), Berke (1997), Smith and Lyles (2011) and Smith and Flatt, (2011) guided on the understanding of the institutional context for planning, planning process and components of the plans, evaluation criteria, readiness and responsiveness. This also contributed to providing a conceptual foundation on evaluation criteria and a tool for assessing the DD in the development planning processes. The UNFPA (2015) “Value proposition for the demographic dividend” which brings out the pathways for realizing the DD was consulted. This framework highlights areas for multiple intersecting investments required to earn the dividend. It defines what needs to be done if the DD is to be realized and demonstrates paths to prospect of a dividend (green path) or missed dividend (red path). This is presented in Figure 3.

Figure 2: Value Proposition for the Demographic Dividend Framework, 2015

Work-life balance policies

CSE

Health-worker training

Laws/policies on violence and discrimination

Family planning Access to SBA Health Systems strengthening

Child health investments

School

Child Marriage

Leaving School

Repeat pregnancies

Child illness & death

Maternal morbidity

Informal workInsecurity & Displacement

Insecure old-age

Employment

Adult marriage/healthy children

Security of Place

Work-life Balance

Wealth/child investment

Lifelong learning

Secure old-age

ADOLESCENT GIRL

Youth policies

Incentives to save

Social safety net policies

Life-long learning

Missed demographic dividend

Demographic Dividend

Source: UNFPA, 2015

In addition, the national planning system and levels of planning processes presented in the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF). (see Figure 4). The CNDPF was approved by the government in 2007 and it presents a synchronized and holistic approach to development planning intended to deliver the Vision 2040. The study assessed the extent DD drivers are mainstreamed and cascaded in the national vision, overall development objectives, strategic master plans and strategies for NDPII, and


10

selected sector plans, the national BFP, certificate of compliance for the annual budget FY2015/16, and broad priorities in the local government development plans. The criteria is structures to assess how each of these levels is consciously taking into account the youth bulge needs and associated drivers.

Figure 3:The Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) 2007

Source: NDPII2015/16-2019/20

Lastly, the structure of the criteria was anchored on the five pillars (drivers) for harnessing the DD in Uganda (NPA, 2014). These are (i) initiating and accelerating a demographic transition (from high mortality and high fertility to low mortality and low fertility); (ii) creating a healthy population; (iii) enhancing coverage, quality and skills development (mechanisms in place for ensuring a well-educated, skilled productive and innovative workforce); (iv) accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation; and (v) enhancing good governance and accountability (the “glue” that holds everything together).

3.1.2.1 Draft tool and assessment criteria for evaluating the development plansTable 2 presents the drafted criteria, comprising the DD drivers as indicated in the NDPII and the DD Report (NPA, 2014). The structure is also building on the criteria for plan evaluation stages by Gruft and Gutstein (1972), complemented by studies from Berke and French (1994), Dalton and Burby (1994), Kaiser et al. (1995) on rational model principles. These are also in agreement with the population situation analysis (PSA) global tool for mainstreaming population interventions.


11

Table 2: Draft A

ssessment Criteria for Evaluating the D

evelopment plans.

AB

CD

EF

GH

I

DD

DR

IVER

S / IN

DIC

ATOR

S anchored on the pillars of

harnessing the dem

ographic divided

Does the plan

explicitly state or m

ention issues identified

in column (A

) of the situation analysis (SA

) of the developm

ent plan

Is there a specific objective

in the plan to address the issues

identified in the SA

(B)

Are the m

easure of success

explicitly stated?

M&

E Framew

ork include indicators

for issues in (A

& C)

Are there

specific interventions

to address a specific

objectives/indicators

(B & C)

Presence of annual w

ork plans (AW

Ps) w

ith activities for realization of interventions in specifies in (E)

Was there a specific

budget allocated for the im

plementation

of the specific activities in the AW

Ps as in (F)?

What w

as actually released?

What is the gap?

State general status/gaps on the D

D

drivers

State existing policy in

support of the im

plementation

of the DD

drivers/ gam

e changers in (A

)

Preliminary pretesting of the evaluation tool (table 2) show

ed that national, sectoral and local government plans w

ere providing information up to strategic

interventions. The annual plans and budgets w

ere independent of the plans presented in the output budgeting tool (OBT). It w

as recomm

ended the deletion of colum

ns F and G since they w

ere out of the scope of the study. Table 3 depicts the adjusted tool after taking into consideration the recomm

endations of the pre-test.

3.1.2.2: Refinem

ent of draft assessment criteria

Following pre-testing, a m

eeting was convened to adjust the tool and integrate recom

mendations. Table 2 show

s the final tool and criteria that were used

to extract data from the selected developm

ent plans, as listed below:

• N

ational plans: Vision 2040, N

DPII, N

BFP and ND

PII Certificates of Compliance;

• Sectoral Plans: ICT, Tourism

, Social Developm

ent, Health and A

griculture; and

• Local G

overnment Plans: Yum

be, Dokolo, Lw

engo, Kabale, Yum

be, Moyo, M

aracha, Nakapiripirit, A

djumani and Fort Portal M

unicipality.


12

Tabl

e 3:

App

rove

d A

sses

smen

t Cri

teri

a fo

r Eva

luat

ing

Dev

elop

men

t pla

ns

AB

CD

EF

G

DD

dri

vers

(g

ame

chan

gers

)

Expl

icit

ly s

tate

or

men

tion

issu

es

iden

tifie

d in

Co

lum

n (A

) wit

hin

the

Situ

atio

n A

naly

sis

(SA

) of

the

plan

Veri

fy a

nd

extr

act s

peci

fic

obje

ctiv

es

to a

ddre

ss

the

issu

es

men

tion

ed in

the

SA (B

)

Wha

t mea

sure

of

succ

ess

is e

xplic

itly

st

ated

in th

e pl

an?

M&

E Fr

amew

ork

incl

ude

indi

cato

rs fo

r is

sues

in (C

) – e

xtra

ct

the

indi

cato

rs a

s th

ey

are.

Veri

fy a

nd e

xtra

ct

spec

ific

inte

rven

tion

s m

enti

oned

in th

e pl

an to

add

ress

a

spec

ific

obje

ctiv

es /

in

dica

tors

(C &

D)

Stat

e ge

nera

l st

atus

/ th

e ga

ps o

n th

e D

D d

rive

rs

Stat

e ex

isti

ng

polic

y in

su

ppor

t of t

he

impl

emen

tati

on

of th

e D

D

driv

ers

/ ga

me

chan

gers

in (A

) in

the

plan

Obj

ecti

ve: T

o in

itia

te a

nd

acce

lera

te a

dem

ogra

phic

tra

nsi

tion

(fr

om h

igh

mor

tali

ty a

nd

hig

h fe

rtil

ity

to lo

w m

orta

lity

an

d lo

w fe

rtil

ity)

Evid

ence

of g

over

nmen

t eff

orts

to

addr

ess

basi

c ne

eds

and

tap

into

be

nefit

s of

a g

row

ing

yout

hful

po

pula

tion

(spe

cific

inte

rven

tion

s fo

r a c

ohor

t of y

oung

peo

ple)

.St

rate

gies

for i

mpr

ovin

g th

e in

crea

sing

siz

e of

the

wor

kfor

ce

in o

rder

to o

pen

dem

ogra

phic

w

indo

w. (

yout

h em

pow

erm

ent

prog

ram

mes

, etc

.)

Evid

ence

of g

over

nmen

t act

ions

to

incr

ease

acc

ess

to fa

mily

pl

anni

ng a

nd re

duce

unm

et n

eeds

fo

r FP

/ el

imin

atin

g ba

rrie

rs to

us

eEv

iden

ce o

f gov

ernm

ent e

ffor

ts to

pr

omot

e re

spon

sibl

e pa

rent

hood

, re

duct

ion

of a

dole

scen

t pr

egna

ncie

s an

d pr

even

tion

of

child

mar

riag

es, o

nset

of c

hild

be

arin

gH

ealt

h: C

reat

ing

a h

ealt

hy p

opul

atio

n


13

Nut

riti

on a

nd fo

od s

ecur

ity

– Ev

iden

ce o

f add

ress

ing

mal

nutr

itio

n an

d m

icro

nut

rien

t de

ficie

ncie

s to

impr

ove

phys

ical

an

d co

gnit

ive

pote

ntia

lC

hild

sur

viva

l int

erve

ntio

ns (c

hild

ill

hea

lth a

nd d

eath

)G

over

nmen

t eff

orts

to p

rom

ote

a he

alth

y po

pula

tion

– h

ealth

in

itia

tive

s (m

ater

nal m

orta

lity,

m

orbi

dity

, ac

cess

to s

afe

wat

er a

nd s

anit

atio

n, m

alar

ia

prev

alen

ce, E

CD)

Educ

atio

n: E

nhan

cing

cov

erag

e, q

ualit

y an

d sk

ills

deve

lopm

ent

(Mec

hani

sms

in p

lace

for e

nsur

ing

a w

ell-e

duca

ted,

ski

lled

prod

ucti

ve a

nd in

nova

tive

wor

kfor

ce)

Mat

chin

g ed

ucat

ion

curr

icul

um

wit

h jo

b m

arke

t nee

ds

(cur

ricu

lum

revi

ew to

ens

ure

inno

vati

on, s

cien

ce, t

echn

olog

y,

entr

epre

neur

ship

and

rese

arch

)Ev

iden

ce o

f eff

orts

to in

crea

se

enro

lmen

ts a

t all

leve

ls, r

educ

tion

in

sch

ool d

ropo

uts

& k

eepi

ng g

irls

at

sch

ool,

espe

cial

ly in

sec

onda

ry

+ (d

isag

greg

ated

by

sex

and

leve

l of

edu

cati

on)

Evid

ence

of p

ost-

sch

ool s

kills

de

velo

pmen

t (fu

ncti

onal

ity

/ av

aila

bilit

y of

voc

atio

nal /

te

chni

cal i

nsti

tuti

ons)

Econ

omic

sec

tor:

Acc

eler

atin

g ec

onom

ic g

row

th, r

efor

ms,

wea

lth a

nd jo

b cr

eati

on


14

Evid

ence

of m

echa

nism

s fo

r pr

omot

ing

priv

ate

savi

ngs

and

inve

stm

ent i

n pr

ivat

e se

ctor

Evid

ence

of m

echa

nism

s to

cre

ate

econ

omic

opp

ortu

niti

es fo

r the

yo

uth

and

sect

ors

wit

h hi

gh jo

b m

ulti

plie

r eff

ect.

Jobs

cre

ated

by

each

sec

tor

(dis

aggr

egat

ed b

y in

form

al a

nd

form

al s

ecto

rs)

Evid

ence

of m

easu

res

to

addr

ess

yout

h un

empl

oym

ent,

unde

rem

ploy

men

t and

cre

atio

n of

opp

ortu

niti

es fo

r the

uns

kille

d la

bour

forc

e

Gov

erna

nce:

Enh

anci

ng g

ood

gove

rnan

ce a

nd a

ccou

ntab

ility

– (t

he “g

lue”

that

hol

ds e

very

thin

g to

geth

er)

Mec

hani

sms

for fi

scal

gov

erna

nce,

eff

ecti

ve a

nd e

ffici

ent s

ervi

ce

deliv

ery

(hea

lth, e

duca

tion

, etc

.)

Enha

ncem

ent o

f Lea

ders

hip

and

stew

ards

hip,

incl

udin

g in

ters

ecto

ral c

oord

inat

ion

and

over

sigh

t

3.2

App

lica

tion

of t

he t

ool a

nd c

rite

ria

on s

elec

ted

nati

onal

, sec

tora

l and

loca

l gov

ernm

ent

deve

lopm

ent

plan

sFo

llow

ing

the

pre-

test

ing,

val

idat

ion

and

appr

oval

, the

tool

was

adm

inis

tere

d by

a te

am o

f fou

r te

chni

cal s

taff

from

the

NPC

, the

NPA

and

the

Mak

erer

e U

nive

rsit

y Ce

ntre

for P

opul

atio

n St

udie

s and

App

lied

Stat

isti

cs (M

ak C

PSA

S). Th

e te

am co

nduc

ted

desk

revi

ew a

nd co

nten

t ana

lysi

s to

extr

act d

ata

from

the

sele

cted

dev

elop

men

t pla

ns. Th

e D

D d

rive

rs in

form

ed th

e as

sess

men

t cri

teri

a an

d tr

ansf

orm

ed in

to a

che

cklis

t for

dat

a ex

trac

tion

. Th

e se

ctor

al a

nd lo

cal

gove

rnm

ent

deve

lopm

ent

plan

s an

d pl

anni

ng g

uide

lines

wer

e re

view

ed t

o as

cert

ain

whe

ther

the

y ha

ve p

rovi

ded

guid

ance

for

cons

ciou

s m

ains

trea

min

g po

pula

tion

con

cern

s in

the

plan

ning

pro

cess

. The

findi

ngs

are

pres

ente

d in

Sec

tion

4 o

f thi

s R

epor

t.


15

44. FINDINGS Analysis of data extracted from the development plans adapted the methodology used in WHO report on inter-sectoral actions for Health in all Policies (WHO, 2013). For the plan to be scored as having integrated or addressed the identified aspects of the DD, there should have been explicit consideration of the DD drivers in the situation analysis, objectives, strategies and/or interventions and indicators of measurement in the plans as in table 2. The coverage (in percentage * representing a weight of 20%) was based on the consideration that a national plan explicitly took into account some or all aspects of the DD drivers in its situation analysis.

4.1 Availability of development plans at national and subnational levelsThe NPA is mandated to supervise planning across the country. At national strategic level, the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (see Figure 4) is in place defining the long (LTEF) and medium (MTEF) terms development goals. At the apex, there is the National Vision, realized through the implementation of the overall ten-year development plan (LTEF) which will be achieved through the implementation of serialized five-year development plans (MTEF) – the National Development Plans (NDP). These NDP are further implemented through five-year sector master plans and strategies implemented through annualized plans and budgets at sectoral and lower local government levels. The continuum of planning and specific objectives for each layer is well laid out and documented. The NBFP is in place and has explicitly provided for strategies for accelerating the harnessing of the DD. However, the extent to which the budget proposal is translated into actual releases for implementation of the DD drivers related strategies is not known. Further research can be commissioned to further study this aspect.

The assessment of the Certificates of Compliance for 2015-16 Annual Budgets for Uganda reported that only eight (Tourism; Energy and Mineral Development; Health; Information, Communication and Technology; Public Administration; Legislature; Lands, Housing Planning and Urban Development; and Accountability) sectors out of seventeen (17)

had an approved sector development plan (NPA, 2016). The Education and Sports, one of the most critical sectors facilitating the harnessing of the DD, was reported in the Certificate of Compliance as having no plan. At local government level, only Fort Portal Municipality had an approved plan. The local government plans analysed in this study were plans approved by the Council at District level. Limited availability of development plans at the start of financial years’ compromises mainstreaming of and compliance to the DD drivers.

4.2 Planning guidelines at national and subnational levelsThe sector and local government planning guidelines provide guidance to planning authorities by setting out a framework within which development plans will achieve high standards in how they set out their aims and objectives; how they are produced; how they are presented; how they are implemented and monitored.

We observed that the sector and local government planning guidelines are in place and both guidelines have provided for interagency planning and coordination mechanisms for addressing population as a cross cutting issue. Sector technical working groups are proposed in the plans to ensure harmonized and coordinated planning, monitoring and evaluation. However, the sectors have not explicitly provided key interventions or indicators for mainstreaming the DD drivers beyond recognition of population as a crossing issue.

4.3 The Certificate of Compliance for 2015-16 Annual Budgets for Uganda on mainstreaming population issuesThe Certificate of Compliance is a tool used to assess alignment of sectoral plans and budgets with the NDP priorities. The Certificate of Compliance for FY 2015-16 indicated some of the aspects of DD drivers that were included in the approved and draft plans. These included:

i) Mass treatment of malaria; ii) Comprehensive skills development;


16

iii) Establishment of centres of excellence by region at post-secondary levels;iv) Recentralizing the inspection of schools;v) Formulation and implementation of a policy to rationalize fees for private primary schools;vi) Implementation of a policy to have a governmental primary school per parish;vii) Promotion of “green jobs” and a fair labour market;viii) Women Entrepreneurship Programme;ix) Strengthening safeguards, safety and health at workplaces; and x) Strengthening the capacity of the Equal Opportunities Commission.

Although these aspects have been considered in the plans, they have either remained underfunded or received very limited budget releases. At the launch of the NBFP 2016/17, the Permanent Secretary and Secretary to Treasury, Ministry of Finance, Planning and Economic Development (MFPED) in 2016, declared that “a middle-income status can only be attained if the issue of population growth rate is courageously addressed”; yet, the areas addressing population growth persistently remain underfunded. The Director for Planning at the NPA reiterated the need for a systemic approach to mainstreaming the DD in the planning chain at all levels. This is to enhance tapping into the potential and anticipated benefit of rapidly increasing population of young people, which contribute to about 78 percent of Uganda’s population (labour force).

4.4 Extent of mainstreaming DD within overarching national development frameworksThe analysis of the national plans contents has revealed significant consideration of DD drivers. Apart from enhancing good governance, each of the other DD indicators were addressed majorly in the human capital development objective. Table 3 shows the percentage coverage of inclusion of DD drivers is the plans studied.

Table 4: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in National Development Plans for Uganda

Demographic Dividend Drivers

National Development Plans

Vision 2040

National Development

Plan

Budget Framework

Paper

Initiating and accelerating a demographic transition * * *

Creating a healthy population * * *Enhancing coverage, quality of education and skills development * * *

Accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation * * *

Enhancing good governance and accountability * *Percentage (%) 100 100 80

A weight of 20% is given to a star *

4.5 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in sector development plans for UgandaTable 4 presents performance of the selected sectors regarding extent of mainstreaming DD drivers in their plans and strategies. It is expected that what is prioritized in national plans is cascaded into sector and the district development plans for systemic action and implementation. The percentage coverage


17

in table 4 is based on consideration that a sector plan explicitly took into account some or all aspects of the DD drivers in their situation analysis, developed an intervention, provided implementation and monitoring mechanisms to address the identified challenge in relation to situation analysis section of the plan, the NDPII and the BFP objectives.

Table 5: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in Sector Development Plans for Uganda

Demographic Dividend DriversSector Development Plans

HealthSocial

DevelopmentAgriculture Tourism ICT

Initiating and accelerating a demographic transition * - - - -

Creating a healthy population * * * - -

Enhancing coverage, quality and skills development * * * * -

Accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation - * * * *

Enhancing good governance and accountability - * - - *

Percentage (%) 60 80 60 40 40A weight of 20% is given to a star *.

Table 4 shows that 80% of the DD drivers are consciously included in the social development sector development plan while ICT and Tourism plans were estimated at 40%. It is noted that the Health, Agriculture and Social development sectors plans demonstrated consideration for demographic transition acceleration, creating a healthy population and skills enhancement in their sector situation analysis and priority interventions. The DD driver on the economy received the most consideration (80%) across all sectors while accelerating demographic transition (20%) was the least.

4.6 Extent of Demographic Dividend driver’s inclusion in Local Government Development Plans for UgandaEight local government and one municipality development plans were considered for analysis. Table 5 presents the percentage coverage of selected DD drivers inclusion in the selected district development plans. The percentage coverage was based on consideration that a district plan explicitly considered some or all aspects of the demographic dividend driver in the district situation analysis and other elements of the plan described in this study.


18

Table 6: Percent Coverage of Demographic Dividend Drivers included in District Development Plans for Uganda

DD drivers Yumbe Moyo Maracha Kabale Lwengo Dokolo Nakapiripirit AdjumaniFort Portal

MunicipalityInitiating and accelerating a demographic transition

* * * * - * * - *

Creating a healthy population

- * - * * * - * *

Enhancing coverage, quality and skills development

- * * - - * - - -

Accelerating economic growth, reforms, wealth and job creation

* * * * - - - * *

Enhancing good governance and accountability

* - - * - - - - -

Percentage (%)

60 80 60 80 20 60 20 40 60

A weight of 20% is given to a star *.

Results from Table 5 indicate that Moyo and Kabale Districts have the highest percentage (80%) in demonstrating the DD indicators in their development plans. Nakapiripirit and Lwengo have the lowest percentage (20%) in demonstrating the same. It is surprising that Nakapiripirit, which has benefited from a UNFPA support country programme over the past 10 years, ranked lowest. The same would be expected for Lwengo which is a fairly urban district with city proximity. Further research is encouraged to understand the underlying causes for the poorly performing districts.

The study revealed that while mainstreaming was well done in the overall national planning documents and integrated in strategic objectives, there are still limitations at sectoral and local government levels. Even with the planning guidelines in place, clarity of what needs to be mainstreamed and supporting to facilitate the mainstreaming may still lack among the planners at national and sub national levels. The Certificate of Compliance for Assessment of the Alignment of Sectoral and Local Government strategies did not have specific criteria for assessing the mainstreaming of the DD drivers, which is one of the key strategies under the human capital development pillar. This could partly explain poor performance in mainstreaming of DD drivers, since it is not among the mandatory indicators being considered for compliance assessment.

4.7 Expert review of findings of the draft reportA draft report of this study was presented to the NPC, NPA, SPEED Project experts and assigned mentor from the FPHSM to validate and endorse the findings. With further subjection of the report to experts’


19

opinions, there was recognition of important findings articulated in the report. However, the experts noted limitations in the tool and criteria used for assessment and recommended the development of a standardized national assessment framework. Through a participatory process in a one-day workshop held at NPC, the following observations were made: -

a) That the defined assessment criteria used in the study lacked appropriateness criteria, was limited in characteristics of a good criteria. A good criterion should be testable (verifiable) clear (concise, short, simple, precise, understandable,) and reliability (consistent). The broad DD drivers/objective areas were not specific enough to ensure reliability and comparability.

The experts panel recommended that, one of the contribution of this study should be development of the standardized national criteria for evaluating extent of compliance of development plans in respect to mainstreaming DD drivers. The expert team advised on the steps to be undertaken as follows: -

i) Development of DD theory of change. The purpose of the theory was to illustrate the pathways for harnessing the demographic dividend in Uganda and provide guidance on results areas for integrated DD multi-sectoral approach

ii) Develop of a DD multi-sectoral results Framework. The purpose of the results framework was to facilitate systemic and holistic approach of sectoral engagement and collaboration in mainstreaming DD drivers in development plans.

iii) Determine a package of DD indicators based on the results areas. The indicators inform the DD assessment criteria, an input to NDP II compliance assessment tool.

iv) Develop DD compliance assessment criteria (DD score card)

v) Apply the approved tool on all targeted plans.

vi) Develop implementation plan on orientation of the tool and DD results framework.


20

5 5.0 Phase II: Solution Design and Implementation: Development of a standardised national DD compliance assessment criteriaA dynamic hypothesis was developed, stating that development of appropriate standardised DD compliance criteria is more likely to enhance effective integration of DD and assessment of population concerns in planning frameworks.

Initial steps have been taken in this direction. These included the development of a DD theory of change showing the interfaces, interactions and mechanisms of mainstreaming DD drivers. The guiding principle is the categorization of key results areas and indicators to guide DD multi-sectoral programming across sectors. The ultimate goal is to inform assessment compliance criteria for mainstreaming DD drivers. Once adopted guide development the DD assessment criteria or scorecard, an input to the certificate of compliance for NDP.

For the purpose of this FPHSM, only the draft theory of change is presented. The next steps were carried forward by the NPA, in partnership with NPC with support from UNFPA. These include experts meeting to discuss, validate and concretize key results areas (game changers), specific inter-sectoral interventions and indicators. In addition, finalize the DD compliance criteria for evaluating the plans, disseminate and orient government planners on the tools.

5.1 Drafting the Theory of Change (TOC)The drafted DD Theory of Change is a dynamic logical and interactive framework which illustrates pathways for harnessing the DD in Uganda. It facilitates operationalization of DD drivers in national and decentralized levels through annual planning and budgeting processes as per the Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF-see Figure 3). It demonstrates organised strategic DD drivers described in vision 2040, the NDPII and DD road map; that require to be mainstreamed into Sector and Local-level interventions and budget frameworks taking advantage of the Program-Based Budgeting approach.

It shows multi-sectoral broad interventions and strategies in relevant sectors that will promote stronger inter-linkages in the planning process and coordinated response that will contribute to the eventual realization of the demographic dividend. The cascading of results can be achieved by developing concrete DD result areas, building consensus or agreeing on the indicators that will define and measure success, and developing compliance criteria to guide self-assessment and peer review as well as external evaluation. The theory of change explains four big results categorized under four major objectives. These are:

i) To transform the age structure and create a youth bulge – this objective aims at bringing about a shift from a broad-based to a narrow-based age pyramid through a rapid fertility decline. The specific actions will include popularizing the benefits of small family size; delaying onset of sexual activities among adolescents in preference to education and career development; empowering couples to have the number of children they really desire; and addressing the unmet need for family planning, especially for long-acting and permanent methods.

ii) To accelerate morbidity and mortality decline – under this objective, sectors are expected to facilitate planned mortality decline through: enabling women to properly space their children to reduce infant and child mortality; promoting proper nutrition for all; promoting environmental sanitation and hygiene; and reducing maternal mortality by enabling women avoid pregnancies in the high risk categories of too early, too many, too close and too late

iii) To develop a competitive human capital – this objective has three dimensions which contribute to human capital’s productivity. Sectors are expected to play different but complementary and mutually


21

reinforcing roles. While the human resource is our most valuable resource, turning it into a competitive human capital dictates that that human resource must be: first, a healthy population (void of childhood illnesses, with healthy styles, proper nutrition, and avoiding unwanted and mistimed pregnancies). Secondly, the human resource must be properly educated – ensuring that all children and adolescents acquire the full basic education as expected through enrolling all children in school, provision of quality education with proper curriculum, providing age appropriate information to school children to handle lifecycle and social challenges and remain in school. Finally, the human resource must be appropriately skilled to take advantage of the employment opportunities that will be created in the economy. This way, the human capital will be the main engine of growth propelling productivity and innovation.

iv) To expand equitable opportunities for growth and gainful employment especially females- The pursuit of the above objectives is enshrined within a general pursuit of an improved governance environment. Through the improved governance nexus, the country will be able to commit to:a) Acceleration of descent job creation;b) Enhancement of institutional accountability and improved service delivery.c) Address cross cutting areas such as early childhood development (ECD) as a critical input to

healthy and educated population. ECD boosts a firm foundation for enhancing the human capital development. Similarly, addressing attitude, culture and other contextual factors in order to influence the population into a consciously productive mind-set to achieve the DD. Lastly, promote advocacy for use and sustainable consumption and management of natural resources, a critical input for the economic pillar and other developmental processes.


22

Figu

re 4

:Dra

ft Th

eory

of C

hang

e to

guid

e mai

nstr

eam

ing t

he im

plem

enta

tion

of t

he D

D d

rive

rs in

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

ns, P

rogr

amm

es &

Init

iati

ves a

t Nat

iona

l &

Sub

nati

onal

leve

ls.(

Ada

pted

from

Dem

ogra

phic

tran

siti

on, h

uman

capi

tal f

orm

atio

n, a

nd so

cial

and

eco

nom

ic ch

ange

— A

fram

ewor

k, R

eher

D.S

(201

1)

Impr

oved

qua

lity

of li

fe o

f the

peo

ple

(Atta

in M

iddl

e In

com

e S

tatu

s in

204

0)

Incr

ease

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rnin

gs, s

avin

gs &

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r cap

ita

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ness

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D)

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ctiv

e la

bour

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e in

crea

sed

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thy,

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cate

d &

Appr

opria

tely

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lled

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ce P

opul

atio

n

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nge

in A

ge S

truct

ure

(You

th b

ulge

)

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an C

apita

l Cre

ated

(Hea

lthy,

S

kille

d, In

nova

tive

Pop

ulat

ion

&

Exp

ertis

e

Unp

lann

ed P

regn

anci

es re

duce

d

Incr

ease

d A

ge

at M

arria

ge &

A

ge a

t Firs

t B

irth

Red

uced

U

nmet

N

eed

of F

P

Gro

wth

driv

ers

A

gric

ultu

re

Man

ufac

turin

g

Tour

ism

Tr

ade

M

iner

al, O

il &

Gas

S

ervi

ces

(ICT,

Te

leco

ms,

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otel

s &

Publ

ic

Serv

ice

Infra

stru

ctur

e

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ds, W

orks

&

Tran

spor

t

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er

Ener

gy &

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eral

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vt

Com

mun

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ions

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ices

Indu

stry

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anne

d U

rban

izat

ion

enfo

rced

Pl

anne

d Se

ttlem

ent &

Se

rvic

es

Impr

oved

Sa

nita

tion

& W

aste

M

anag

emen

t

Phys

ical

Pla

nnin

g

Red

uced

Mor

talit

y es

peci

ally

of C

hild

ren

En

sure

Chi

ld

Surv

ival

Long

er P

rodu

ctiv

e Li

fe

Ac

cess

to B

asic

& T

ertia

ry

Educ

atio

n

Prim

ary

& Se

cond

ary

Fo

rmal

Ski

lling

(Ter

tiary

&

Expa

ndin

g Bu

sine

ss, T

echn

ical

Vo

catio

nal T

rain

ing

& Sk

ills

Dev

elop

men

t)

Non

-For

mal

Ski

lling

– R

etoo

ling,

ap

pren

tice,

Early

Tal

ent I

dent

ifica

tion

&

Dev

elop

men

t

Educ

atio

n Sy

stem

Stre

ngth

ened

C

urric

ulum

Rev

iew

&D

evel

opm

ent

H

uman

Res

ourc

es

Inst

ruct

iona

l & E

valu

atio

n M

ater

ials

Ph

ysic

al In

frast

ruct

ure

In

crea

se in

vest

men

ts in

Sci

ence

, Te

chno

logy

, Eng

inee

ring,

m

athe

mat

ics

& In

nova

tions

Ad

opt a

life

cou

rse

appr

oach

to

lear

ning

(Val

ue c

hain

ana

lysi

s)

Labo

r Mar

ket O

bser

vato

ry

R

educ

ed C

hild

Ill

ness

es

Red

uced

Adu

lt M

orbi

dity

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th S

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m

Stre

ngth

ened

C

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ive/

Spec

ialis

t C

are

U

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Hea

lth

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Hum

an R

esou

rces

Prev

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e se

rvic

es

Dem

and

Cre

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n fo

r H

ealth

Ser

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s

Incr

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d In

vest

men

ts

in F

P

Impr

oved

G

irls

Edu

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n

Hum

an C

apita

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ated

(Hea

lthy,

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vativ

e P

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d E

xper

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Exp

and

equi

tabl

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ainf

ul

Em

ploy

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t esp

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lly F

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Con

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ent I

nves

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ts G

row

th /

Prod

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e Se

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s an

d In

fras

truc

ture

Inve

stm

ents

in h

igh

job

mul

tiplie

r ind

ustri

es

Val

ue A

dditi

on &

Cha

in A

naly

sis

in s

elec

tive

Sect

ors

S

timul

ate

Priv

ate

Sect

or p

artic

ipat

ion

A

cces

s to

Affo

rdab

le F

inan

cing

A

ppro

pria

te ta

xatio

n sy

stem

s

Ince

ntiv

es to

sav

e

Soc

ial S

afel

y Po

licie

s

Dev

elop

men

t & E

nfor

cem

ent o

f Ind

ustry

sta

ndar

ds

Pro

mot

e di

alog

ue b

etw

een

indu

stry

& T

rain

ing

Inst

itutio

ns fo

r Sk

ills d

evel

opm

ent

Cros

s Cu

tting

Issu

es

Early

Chi

ldho

od D

evel

opm

ent (

ECD

) Ope

ratio

naliz

ed

Empo

wer

men

t, M

ind-

set,

Attit

ude

chan

ge o

f in

lifes

tyle

s of

the

Popu

latio

n

Goo

d G

over

nanc

e (In

stitu

tiona

l, Le

gal F

W; A

ccou

ntab

ility

for R

esul

ts; R

esou

rce

Effic

ienc

y; C

oord

inat

ion

Mec

hani

sms;

Adv

ocac

y &

Rep

ortin

g


23

Lessons LearntThe most significant learning is beyond classroom teaching.

I have learnt the power of influencing policy by working through other people. During this fellowship I received regular access to some of the most influential and great personalities and technical leadership from mentors who supported me both technically and financially. The mentorship and coaching from these experts and catalytic funding from SPEED and UNFPA were very fundamental in facilitating an enabling environment for increased appreciation and understanding of the demographic dividend concept.

The ability to network with countless leaders and individuals allowed me to build relationships that will continue throughout my career. I have learnt the importance of expert opinion in guiding the fellowship.

It is rare for academic material to translate into policy, programming and planning. Currently, this study on DD has been translated directly into budgeting and funding for population programs. The results being referenced at international level in different international meetings is a surprise.

The fellowship has inspired me to follow a new path of implementation research, ignited my interest to pursue a PhD in policy analysis and multi-sectoral collaboration to advance population issues. The focus is narrowed to mainstreaming the demographic dividend drivers in national development plans including sectors and local governments


24

55. CONCLUSIONSThe DD TOC that is proposed in this study contribute to understanding how DD indicators can be mainstreamed in planning and implementation frameworks and/or strategies. This study assessed the extent of mainstreaming the DD drivers into national, sectoral and local government development plans.

The findings indicated a strong evidence of conscious mainstreaming of DD drivers in the National Vision and the NDPII. However, the extent of DD mainstreaming in the selected sectoral and local government plans is still weak. These findings are consistent with the NDP Certificate of Compliance Study Report 2016.

Based on the findings of the study, experts recommended further review of the criteria, proposing the development of a national standardized criteria to assess mainstreaming of DD drivers in the development plans. Once adopted, the criteria should be applied to all sectoral and local government plans to collect benchmarks and baseline information on the status of mainstreaming and implementing the DD drivers in 2016-2020 development plans and budgets.

Limitations of the studyFirstly, the assumption was that all sectors and local governments had approved development plans for the period 2016-2020. Through a compliance study conducted by the NPA, only 8 sectors had approved plans; the rest of the sectors had either draft development plans or none. A similar pattern existed for the local governments. This affected the sampling procedure. As a result, this study utilized available plans only.

Secondly, DD is multi-sectoral, involving extensive consultation with key partners and validation of major processes. This affected speed and time for completion of this assignment. The objectives of this study have not fully been achieved, work is still in progress. The preliminary findings been discussed and are contributing to the process of developing a standardized criteria and indicators. A theory of change, result areas and indicators have been drafted due for review by national and district planners.


25

66. RECOMMENDATIONSUganda, therefore, needs to quickly put together a systematic process to support mainstreaming of DD drivers and oversee their implementation at all levels if harnessing of the DD is to be achieved. The following recommendations are proposed for taking forward the findings from this study. These recommendations are categorized under national and local government levels, and study next steps.

National Level:1) The NPA and the NPC with support from the UNFPA facilitate the process of reviewing TOC, finalizing

the DD multi-sectoral results framework and indicators. This process was concluded, DD compliance criteria and scorecard as inputs to the National Development Plan Certificate of Compliance tool has been done.

2) Finalize the development of a step-by-step guide (handbook) to operationalize the DD drivers in decentralized planning:

a) Conduct a technical working group discussion with the NPC and the NPA to finalize the TOC, results areas, indicators and validation exercise;

b) Conduct a retreat with Expert colleagues from NPA, NPC, UBOS, MakSPH, and MUK-CPAS to review the TOC and monitoring framework. Define terms of reference for a review team.

c) Present the validated TOC to the NPA for endorsement

d) NPA/NPC should facilitate the use and application of the framework in ongoing planning for mainstreaming of DD drivers into sector plans. The specific activities could include:

i) Dissemination of the DD TOC;ii) Capacity development of planners/other users of the handbook;

iii) Resource mobilization for implementation and monitoring of the multi-sectoral results framework;

iv) Identification of stakeholders;

v) Definition of roles and responsibilities of stakeholders.

3) The NPC and the NPA, with the support from the UNFPA, facilitate multi-sectoral collaboration, establish and institutionalize coordination mechanisms to follow up for annual status review, and planning for DD drivers’ implementation. This includes providing guidance to sectors and local governments to institutionalize DD mainstreaming within the annual budget and planning processes

Sub national Level4) The NPC and the NPA could support District local governments to undertake annual status review and

planning for DD drivers mainstreaming into LG Development plans, including resource mobilization and allocation, and implementation

Next steps with the study findings1) Conduct stakeholder’s dialogue meeting to validate the TOC, results and indicators and make proposals

on roles and responsibilities of stakeholders.

3) Work with NPA, NPC and the SPEED Project to produce a Policy Brief on the DD.

3) Prepare an abstract for an international conference on the TOC.


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77. REFERENCESAshraf, Q.H., Weil, D.N., Wilde, J. (2013) The Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth. Popul. Dev. Rev. 39, 97–130. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00575.x

Africa Union (2017) DD ROADMAP Final - EN_2.pdf, n.d. Available on Internet accessed on https://www.africa-youth.org/new...au-roadmap-2017.../au-2017-dd-roadmap-final-e...

Baer W.C. (1997) General Plan Evaluation Criteria? Approach to Making Better Plans Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol.63, No. 3

Bardarch E. (2012) A practical guide for policy analysis: the eightfold path to more effective problem solving / — 4th ed; University of California, Berkeley

Becker, G. (1960) An Economic Analysis of Fertility in Universities. National Bureau Committee for Economic Research. Demographic and Economic Change in Developed Countries: Princeton University Press, pp 209-31.

Becker, G. (1981) A Treatise on the Family. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

Becker J. and Johnston D. (2000) Planning and Policy for earthquake hazards in New Zealand, Institute of Geological & Nuclear Sciences, Paper No 1.04.01

Berke P. and Conroy M.M. (2000): Are we planning for sustainable Development? An evaluation of 30 comprehensive Plans, American Planning Association. Journal of the American Planning Association

Birdsall, N., Kelley, A., and Sinding, S. eds (2003). Population Matters: Demography, Growth, and Poverty in the Developing World. pp. 165-197. Oxford University Press.

Buse K., Nicholas Mays and Gill Walt (2005) Making Health Policy Maidenhead; New York, NY: Open University Press, - Understanding public health

Bloom, D. and Canning, D. (2000) The Health and Wealth of Nations Science 287: 1207-1209

Bloom, D., Canning, D., and Malaney, P. (2000) Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia. Population and Development Review. Vol. 26, supp., pp 257-290

Bloom, D., Canning, D., and Sevilla, J. (2001) The Effect of Health on Economic Growth: Theory and Evidence. NBER Working Paper 8587.

Bloom, D., Mahal, A., Sevilla, J., and River (2001), AIDS and Economics, Path Associates

Bloom, D. and Canning, D. and Jaypee Sevilla (2001). Cumulative Causality, Economic Growth, and the Demographic Transition

Bloom, David E., Patricia H. Craig, and Pia N. Malaney. (2001). The Quality of Life in Rural Asia. Oxford University Press.

Canning, David J.; Jobanputra, Sangeeta Raja; Yazbeck, Abdo S (2015). Africa’s demographic transition: dividend or disaster? Africa development forum. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/131891468179371220/Africa-s-demographic-transition-dividend-or-disaster

Dalton L, C. (1989) Emerging Knowledge about Planning Practice Research :Journal of Planning Education and Research , Research Article; https://doi.org/10.1177/0739456X8900900103

Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2010) Uganda National Vision 2040


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Government of Uganda, National Population Council (2010) The National Population Policy Action Plan (2011-2015)

Government of Uganda, National Population Council (2014) The National Population Council Act

Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2014) Harnessing the Demographic Dividend: Accelerating Socioeconomic Transformation in Uganda

Government of Uganda, Uganda Bureau of Statistics (2014) The National Housing and Population Census

Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2015) The Second National Development Plan 2015/16-2019/20

Government of Uganda, National Population Council (2018) Harnessing Uganda’s Demographic Dividend: Evidence from National Transfer Accounts

Government of Uganda, National Planning Authority (2016) The Certificate of Compliance for the Annual Budget FY2015/16

ICPD Beyond 2014 Review Process [WWW Document], n.d. URL /events/icpd-beyond-2014-review-process (accessed 1.11.19).

Karra, M., Canning, D., Wilde, J., (2015). A Simulation Model of the Effect of Fertility Reduction on Economic Growth in Africa (Working Paper No. 0315). University of South Florida, Department of Economics.

Lorange Peter and Vancil F. Richard, (1976): How to Design a Strategic Planning System

https://hbr.org/1976/09/how-to-design-a-strategic-planning-system

Management Sciences for Health (Firm) (Ed.), (2005). Managers who lead: a handbook for improving health services. Management Sciences for Health, Cambridge, Mass.

Meyerson R. (2012) A tool for evaluating plan quality of local government emergency management response plans: A paper submitted to the faculty of The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in

partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Public Administration.

Norton,R.K. (2005) More and Better Local Planning: State-Mandated Local Planning in Coastal North Carolina, Journal of the American Planning Association, 71:1, 55-71, DOI: 10.1080/01944360508976405

United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2013) Creating and Capitalizing on the Demographic Dividend for Africa, Industrialization for Emerging Africa.www.uneca.org

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United Nations (2013) Open Working Group on Sustainable Development Goals Fourth Session of the General Assembly. Washington DC, USA

UNFPA, UNDESA, UN-HABITAT, IOM (2013): Population Dynamics in the Post-2015 Development Agenda: Report of the Global Thematic Consultation on Population Dynamics

United Nations Population Fund Inter Divisional Working Group on the DD (2015): A value Proposition for Demographic Dividend

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Development Review 37 Supplement 11-33

Saatvika Rai (2016) The Politics of Climate Adaptation- Submitted to the graduate degree program in Political Science and the Graduate Faculty of the University of Kansas in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Van Olmen, J., Criel, B., Van Damme, W., Marchal, B., Van Belle, S., van Dormael, M., Hoerée, T., Pirard, M., Kegels, G., (2012). Analysing health systems dynamics. A framework.

WHO Regional Office (2013) Inter-sectoral actions of Health in all Policies

Yan Song, Chaosu Li, Robert Olshansky, Yang Zhang & Yu Xiao (2017): Are we planning for sustainable disaster recovery? Evaluating recovery plans after the Wenchuan earthquake, Journal of Environmental Planning and Management, 60:12, 2192-2216, DOI: 10.1080/09640568.2017.1282346


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ANNEXESAnnex 1 Table 7: Criteria for selecting the possible solution for your priority problem

- Priority Matrix

Criteria R

ank

Priority A

ctions

Develop

monitoring

and evaluation fram

ework

for m

easuring integration of population in developm

ent fram

ework

Review

existing tools

for integration and com

plete those in draft form

(SOPs)

at programm

e and

managem

ent level

Mentoring and

coaching of NPC

staff on elem

ents and procedure of population

integration with

few of creating a

shared vision and im

proving work

climate

Strengthen institutional

coordination and collaboration at

national, sectoral and local governm

ent level through establishm

ent of coordination

mechanism

s and identification of

convergence areas

Develop

comm

unication tools targeting

towards

improvem

ent of N

PC visibility,

popularisation of the policy

Develop

institutional perform

ance fram

ework

highlighting strategies for

delivering im

plementation

of the NPC

strategic plan, N

PPAP &

Policy

Docum

entation of achievem

ents and lessons

learnt since the N

PC started advocacy for integration

of population issues in national

development

framew

orksSupply capacity:

technical feasibility, operational feasibility

(which includes

existent and actual possibility

of mobilising

resources).

23

13

32

3

Acceptability of

the solution you propose by the

population

33

33

33

3

Contribution and support from

key stakeholders

22

22

22

2

Adaptability to

local health policy3

32

21

11

Total Score10

118

109

89

8


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Annex II Figure 5: Priority Problem-Fish born technique analysis

Policies (Rules and regulations)

Legal Mandate was still questionable due to delayed passing of NPC bill

Proposed council too big because of involving every relevant SH on the membership (Cultural, Religious, Parliament, Interest groups, Executive etc.)

Processes and Procedures (Standards & Equipment)

Limited SOPs (Integration guidelines, Monitoring & evaluation tools

Limited funds to facilitate the activities

Over reliance on the donor and conflicting objectives Obstacle/Problem

Limited integration of population dynamics in development plans, programmes and initiatives, associated with limited guiding tools for mainstreaming these issues at all levels of planning

Environment (Stakeholders)

Weak institutional collaboration Not aware how pop issues

affect them Limited popularization of

population concerns at sectoral level

Limited budget due unclear legal framework

People (Knowledge, skills, feedback, motivation, support)

Limited understanding of the mandate & sticking to it

Not aligned & mobilized to a shared vision

Weak orientation on strategic direction

Poor working climate and organizational culture (not clear on roles and deliberate effort to mentor and motivate staff)

Oversight & guidance roles (No board)


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Annex IIIFigure 6: Diagrammatic presentation of the methodology

Idea of developing a tool/ criteria for assessing the plans

Literature on evaluation of plans & quality

Lit. -phases of the demographic transition, global & regional experiences on what has worked and what has not worked

Lit. on Population Situation Analysis tools; Health in all policies

Gov’t Planning Documents

Situation Analysis of (NPC) & how it relates to HS and Protocol Dev’t

Consultations with NPC- Identification & selection of the Problem using Fish bone

Definition of the Prob. What is DD, Is it understood the same way & what is extent of mainstreaming in Dev’t Plans

Draft Evaluation

Tool

Plan Selections

Pretesting report

synthesized

Applied on national &

district plans

Tool Updated

Evaluated the plans

Expert Opinions

Draft DD Theory (TOC) of Change conceived

Multi-sectoral Results FW & Indicators

Expert Discussions (NPC, NPA & Sectoral & district Planner- validate

TOC, results & Indicators

DD Compliance Assessment Criteria & Planning tool

Evaluate Target plans, Baseline Data & Implementation FW

DD Score Card

Synthesize comments

Assessment Report | The Experience of ICOBI Community Health Insurance Scheme In Rural Uganda February 2019

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The Supporting Policy Engagement for Evidence-based Decisions (SPEED) for Universal Health Coverage in Uganda is a 5 year partnership supported by European Union that started in 2015. The partnership comprises Makerere University School of Public Health (Lead Agency), Uganda National Health Consumers’ Organization (UNHCO), Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), National Planning Authority (NPA), Institute of Tropical Medicine (ITM) Antwerp Belgium and Human Science Research Council (HSRC), South Africa.

SPEED Brief

For details about SPEEDMakerere University School of Public Health, College of Health SciencesLevel 3, School of Public Health Building, Mulago Hospital ComplexOffice: Room 323, MakSPH Building Website: speed.musph.ac.ug Email: [email protected]

Tel: +256 772-509316 @SPEED4UHC @SPEED4UHC

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