Pathways to Foresight Careers

World Future 2014

#WFS14

Pathways for Foresight

Careers Dr. Jay Gary

Download slides: http://www.jaygary.com/foresightcareers14.pdf #WFS14 @drjaygary

Jay Gary Longview, Texas

• Associate Professor, Graduate Sch. of Business, LETU • Graduate Program Director, MBA, MHA, MSL, MEM • Founder of Regent University’s Foresight Programs • 15 yrs in Mgt Consulting, 10 yrs academic • Research is in Foresight, Strategy & Leadership • http://www.jaygary.com

Abstract 1. How has your futurist work intersected with your career? 2. What is the present state and future prospects of building a

career in foresight? 3. What competencies will tomorrow’s futurists demonstrate,

whether as trend analysts, project managers, facilitators or consultants?

This session present findings from the “Certification of Professional Futurists 2030,” a Real-Time Delphi conducted among 142 experts from 29 countries on how 6 interlocking systems will shape how the futurists of tomorrow will build their careers: knowledge base, competency maps, interactive training, participatory networks, continuing education, and code of ethics.

Age of Jobs

https://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140620100222-22726740-jobs-are-over-the-future-is-income-generation-part-1?trk=mp-reader-card

Post-Industrial Society: 1970-2010

• US Employment Shift by Sector

• Increase in Occupation Differentiation

• Increased Requisite Science Based Skills

• Layered Occupational Structure - Professional - Managerial - Technical

78%

20%

2%

Rise of Productivity & GDP Low Wage Growth, Decline of Jobs

Job Movement


“Jobs have moved Up, Out and Fragmented”

Age of Income Generation


Professional Futurists Actors, Levels & Identity

Strategic Foresight

Organizational Futurist

End User Client

Consulting Futurist

Champion

Client

Hines, A. (2012, December). The role of an organizational futurist in integrating foresight into organizations. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Leeds Metropolitan University, Faculty of Business and Law; p. 9

Our approach in this session:

1. Review Six Practices of Strategic Foresight 2. Discuss results of a

• 2013 Survey of Professional Futurists • 2012 Delphi on Professionalizing Foresight

Strategic Foresight

is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view and to use the insights in useful ways eg. to

reach new markets, to guide policy, to reinvent companies, to launch strategic alliances.

Richard Slaughter, AFI

Where do foresight professionals work? • Strategic Planners • Intelligence Analysts • Innovation Managers • Management Consultants • Social Entrepreneurs

Horizon 3: Foresight

Foresight Practices

Framing 1

Scanning 2

Forecasting 3

Visioning 4

Planning 5

Source: Hines & Bishop, Thinking About the Future, 2007

6 Acting

Strategic Foresight Activity

How Existing Methods Fit

Certificate in Foresight

APF 2013 Survey

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

Sole Proprietor

Small Team < 5

Type of Company

61 %

27 %

N = 40; 3-5 Projects a Year,

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

Int'l CompaniesGovernments

Non-Profits

Type of Client 11 %

12 % 14 %

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

$1,000 - $5,000

$15,000-$30,000

Fee Per Project

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

60-90 Days

1-3 Days

Project Duration

22 %

28%

21%

29 %

Projects mostly internal supported (60%)

What has been changing for “Futurists”?

Daheim, C., & Uerz, G. (2008, May). Corporate foresight in Europe: From trend based logics to open foresight. Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 20(3), 321-336.

Annual Revenue of Foresight Firms

60% of Revenue, just 5 Firms

The Foresight Market

The results suggest a specialized market with many small, fragmented providers and a handful of large firms. – Noah Raford, PhD, APF 2013 Survey

APF Questions 1. Will small consultancies and sole traders be

able to compete against large, consolidated industry players?

2. Will advances in IT enable small players to compete more effectively, or will they enable large firms to extend their reach and consolidate their dominance in a global market place?

3. Is the industry shrinking, growing, or staying the same overall?

School of Business & Leadership | Jay Gary, PhD

Certifying Professional Futurists 2030

The Future of the Foresight Profession Results from a Delphi Survey

Jay Gary, PhD • July 2013

Twitter: DrJayGary

jaygary.com/profession2030.pdf

Note: This research has been submitted for publication to Futures journal


Job to Occupation to Profession?

Hines, A., & Gold, J. (2013). Professionalizing foresight: Why do it, where it stands, and what needs to be done. Journal of Futures Studies, 17(4), 35-54. http://www.jfs.tku.edu.tw/17-4/A03.pdf

Category Definition Criteria?

Capability the ability to do something Field an area of interest or practice Discipline an area of academic study ? Profession recognized occupation—excludes “ineligibles”

If we worked toward professionalizing foresight over 20 years, would this turn a Competitive Disadvantage to a Competitive Advantage?


Evolution of a Profession?

Adapted from Hogan, L. (2003). Futures studies: Evolution of a profession. Student paper. AFI, Swinburne University. Hines, A. (2012, December). The role of an organizational futurist in integrating foresight into organizations. Unpublished doctoral dissertation, Leeds Metropolitan University, Faculty of Business and Law.

1. Knowledge Base: of frameworks, theories, methods, tools.

2. Competency Profile: that delineates skills by job task and career level.

3. Approved Training: that is offered in certificates, diplomas, degrees or modules.

4. Professional Association: accepted by profession to represent them.

5. Professional Skills: that are updated through continuing education.

6. Code of Ethics: with adherence to standards.

7. Accrediting Body: that sets standards and backs competency exams.


Porter’s Five Forces

What was the Conceptual Framework?

Porter, M. E. (1979). How competitive forces shape strategy. Harvard Business Review, 57(2), 137-145.


Who Might Shape Foresight Profession- 2030?

New entrants (consolidation or not of the field?) Foresight Professional Certification:

Suppliers (those who train) • Self – trained analysts,

managers, trainers, consultants

• Universities (degrees, certificates)

• Associations - (conferences) • Commercial Firms (exec

educ)

Buyers (those who buy foresight) Clients Students Mid-Career shifters

Substitutes (other professions, technology) Certifications: Planning, Strategy, Risk, CI, etc Other Degrees: MBA, MA-economics, sociology Online Interactive Learning


Delphi Study on the Foresight Profession

“Real-Time Delphi “ Survey

Dec 11th -Jan 31st


Real-time Delphi A real-time Delphi reduces the need for multiple surveys and generates a broad database for scenarios (von der Gracht, 2011)

Survey 1 Starts

Expert 1 Expert 2 Expert 3

Survey 1 Ends

Expert n

Moderator

Statistical Results

(1) Assess Each Item (2) Real-time Feedback (3) Re-assess Estimates

The “Real-Time Delphi” is an anonymous, systematic, questioning process, in which the statistical group opinion is calculated in the background after each question. Worldwide to date there are very few similar web-based foresight tools.

Innovative RT-Delphi


Consensus Portal

Grad Programs – Certification Advantage

Commercial Firms Offer Foresight Training


0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Who Responded to this RTDelphi? 142 Respondents, 1,226 Invitations, 11.6% response

Age

Location Gender

Profession

Consultants 31.7%

Academics 31.0%

Applied Research

13.4%

Industry 13.4%

Association / Politics 10.6%

Europe 43.7% N. America 36.6% Oceania 7.7% Asia 6.3% L.America 3.5% Africa 2.1%

Female 22%

Male 79%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84

39

38

28

17

15

5

APF

Other

WFS

MP

WFSF

ST Associations


Propositions for 2030 No EP D

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

Delphi, Certifying Professional Futurists 2030 © 2013


Ranking of Expectations

High

Moderate

No. Propositions for 2030 EP 7 Other Professions offer Foresight training 72 9 Academic Acceptance of Foresight 62

14 Interactive E-Learning 61 13 Individualized Self Training 56 11 Explicit Job Offers for Futurists 55 4 On the Job Training 55 6 Commercial Firms - Foresight Training 50 8 Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 48

10 Accreditation of Foresight Education 48 1 Professional Certification 48 2 Certification by Levels 46 5 Grad Programs Compete on Certification 44

12 Preference for Foresight Degrees 38 3 Recognized Council 24

Low


Ranking of Consensus / Dissent No. Propositions for 2030 EP IQR

7 Related Professions Compete w Futures 72 10 3 Recognized Council for Standards 24 20

12 Preference for Foresight Degrees 38 25 4 On the Job Training 55 30 5 Grad Programs Compete on Certification 44 30 9 Academic Acceptance of Foresight 62 30

10 Accreditation of Foresight Education 48 30 11 Explicit Job Offers for Futurists 55 30 14 Interactive E-Learning 61 30 13 Individualized Self Training 56 38 1 Professional Certification 48 40 2 Certification by Levels 46 40 6 Commercial Firms Provide Foresight Training 50 40 8 Knowledge Base of Futures Studies 48 45

Degree of consensus of EP = 2nd round Interquartile Range (IQR 3 minus IQR1); Strong consensus (IQR of <= 20) ; Moderate consensus (IQR of 20-25); Moderate dissent (IQR of >25-30); Strong dissent IRQ of >=30)

Strong

Moderate Consensus

Dissent Strong

Moderate


Three Scenarios for 2030 3. New entrants: 39%, certification Organizational Futurists

2. Suppliers: 49%, academicisation Academic Futurists -Connected Foresight Value Chain; -Low Differentiation to other Occupations

1. Substitutes: 61%, assimilation External Professions -Fragmented Foresight Value Chain -Low Differentiation to other Occupations

-Connected Foresight Value Chain -Hi Differentiation to other Occupations

8. Consolidation of knowledge base 9. Academic acceptance of foresight 12. No preference for certified futurists with foresight degrees over MBA.

6. Commercial Firms offer foresight training 7. Related professions offer foresight training 13. Individualized Self-Training thru ICT

1. Viable professional certification 2. Certification by levels or sector 3. Single Council setting standards


Issues in Play • Substitutes

--From Assimilation of Foresight by Other Professions (Competitive Intelligence, Strategy, Innovation) to Differentiation and Monopoly by Foresight Profession -- From Face to Face Seminars to Interactive/Individualized Training. -- From Independent Contractors to Virtual ICT Consultancies?

• Suppliers: -- Credentials: From Academic Monopoly of Degrees to Competitive Markets of Certificates? Diversity of Certificates from Methodological Schools: visionary, analytical, participatory? -- Disciplines: From Stand-Alone Differentiation of FS Degrees (accreditation?) to Integration of Specializations within MBA?

• New Entrants: -- Certification: None to Sector based? None to Methods based? None to Regional based? None to single Global based? Dueling Certifications via Schools? Integration or Fragmentation of Certification? Buyers: -- Professionals: From Early Pre-Service Students to Mid-Career Professionals?

• Competitive Rivalry: From Competitive Disadvantage to Competitive Advantage?


Pathways for the Foresight Profession

Scenario Dominant Actor Value Chain Competitive

Position Likelihood Desirability

1. Substitutes External Professions Fragmented Low

Differentiation 61% 3.5

2. Suppliers Academic Futurists Connected Low


3. New Entrants

Organizational Futurists Connected High


The scenario of professional certification by 2030 was deemed least likely and less desirable by experts. Yet if implemented in a co-joined manner with a consortium of clients, its could yield favorable gains for foresight professionals.

School of Business & Leadership | Jay Gary, PhD School of Business & Leadership | Dr. Gary

Ennis, M. (2008, 29 January). Competency Models: A review of literature and the role of the Employment and Training Administration (ETA) (U.S. Department of Labor No. ETAOP 2008-13). Office of Policy Development and Research.

http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/pyramid.aspx

Next Steps: Competency Maps


Competency Maps - Detail

http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/pyramid.aspx


Career Path, Ladders, Lattices

http://www.careeronestop.org/CompetencyModel/CareerPathway/CPWCllInstructions.aspx

Career ladders/lattices can:

• attract individuals to an industry by showing potential career progression beyond entry points,

• focus workforce development efforts,

• show workers how different jobs interconnect within careers in an industry, and

• inform workers about the training, education, and developmental experiences that would enable them to accomplish their career objectives.


Discussion

1. What questions do you have on the Delphi Method?

2. How do these potential pathways for foresight professionals affect your work?

Pathways for Foresight

Careers Dr. Jay Gary

Download slides: http://www.jaygary.com/foresightcareers14.pdf #WFS14 @drjaygary

Pathways to Foresight Careers

Career

Transcript of Pathways to Foresight Careers