PATA Global Insights Conference - Pacific Asia Travel ... · PDF filePATA Global Insights...
Transcript of PATA Global Insights Conference - Pacific Asia Travel ... · PDF filePATA Global Insights...
w w w . f o r w a r d k e y s . c o m
PATA
Global Insights
Conference 2017
September 2017
“Know tomorrow’s travellers”
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.2
ABOUT FORWARDKEYS
2
ForwardKeys predicts future travel patterns by crunching and analysing 17M bookingtransactions a day. It is used by companies operating in the global travel ecosystem to monitorand anticipate traveller arrivals and stay ahead of the trends from a particular origin market at aspecific time.
THE REFERENCE FOR GLOBAL TRAVELER INTELLIGENCE
ABOUT FORWARDKEYS
Shanghai 27%
Beijing12%
Hangzhou14% ZERO IN ON WHAT REALLY MATTERS
Get to the bottomline of granularity
CASH IN, SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITYKnow who will be traveling, where and when
KNOW TOMORROW’S TRAVELLERSProfiling capabilities from a different angle
KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOWDaily data freshness as a differentiator
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.3
Travel & Tourism Resilience
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.4
EUROPE
Departures Arrivals
+4.2% +7.3%
ASIA PACIFIC
Departures Arrivals
+4.1% +3.3%
Middle East & AFRICA
Departures Arrivals
+5.2% +8.4%
THE AMERICAS
Departures Arrivals
+7.1% +2.0%
Global International Air Travel 2017 Year to Date
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.5
International Arrivals in Asia Pacific: Top long-haul Source Markets
THE AMERICAS+7.7%
+35%
+28%
EUROPE+7.5%
+25%
+16%
+11%
Top Origin Countriesin terms of GROWTH
2017 Year to Date %Var.
Year to Date:
+3.3%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.6
Increasing & Unprecedented Shocks
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.7
Stock market crash really discourages Chinese to book trips
Evolution of Shanghai Stock Exchange and YoY %Var Int‘l Air Bookings from China:During May 26th to October 20th 2015
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index
May
26
May
28
Jun
01
Jun
03
Jun
05
Jun
09
Jun
11
Jun
15
Jun
17
Jun
19
Jun
24
Jun
26
Jun
30
Jul 0
2
Jul 0
6
Jul 0
8
Jul 1
0
Jul 1
4
Jul 1
6
Jul 2
0
Jul 2
2
Jul 2
4
Jul 2
8
Jul 3
0
Au
g 0
3
Au
g 0
5
Au
g 0
7
Au
g 1
1
Au
g 1
3
Au
g 1
7
Au
g 1
9
Au
g 2
1
Au
g 2
5
Au
g 2
7
Au
g 3
1
Sep
02
Sep
08
Sep
10
Sep
14
Sep
16
Sep
18
Sep
22
Sep
24
Sep
28
Sep
30
Oct
09
Oct
13
Oct
15
Oct
19
Panic and first government reactions
Control policies and high spending
Government activity reduction
June 18. Regulators limitsshort selling.June 27. China’s Central Bankcut rates and cash reserveratio.
July 5. People’s Bank of Chinainjects liquidity.July 8. Beijing prohibits stocksales by major shareholders.
Aug 14. Some tradedcompanies are allowed to sellstock.Aug 25. Cut rates again afterShanghai index reaches lowestvolume.
Self-adjusting
Sep 7. Tax benefits for long-term shareholders.
26th and 27th
Mid-Autumn Day
Stimulus expectation
1th - 7th
Golden Week
Oct 12. Central Bank announced stimulus.
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.8
Bookings for travel to Barcelona: negative for 3 weeks after the attack
BCNBookings for travel to Barcelona, long haul markets (excl. Europe), weekly YoY var.
+20.2% YoY -7.9% YoY
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
21-Jul 28-Jul 4-Aug 11-Aug 18-Aug 25-Aug 1-Sep 8-Sep
BCN attack on 17th August
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.9
Travellers are thrilled by the ease of visa: Chinese as a great example
Growth in Chinese arrivals in the destination since its visa ease policy was implementedCN
*Variation only for arrivals between Aug and Oct 2014.
Serbiavisa exemption
+280%
USA10-year visa
+6%
Canada10-year visa
+21%
Chilevisa exemption for US/CA visa holders
+53%
U.K.2-year visa
+17%
Ecuadorvisa exemption
+69%
Moroccovisa
exemption
+398%Peru
visa exemption for US/CA/UK/AU/Schengen visa holders
+39%
ArgentinaE-visa for
US/CA/Schengen visa holders
+18%
Israel10-year visa
+41%
ArmeniaE-visa
+70%
Tunisiavisa exemption
+217%
Belarus5 days visa exemption
+40%
Thailandvisa free of charge
for 3 months*+73%
IndiaE-visa
+11%
IndonesiaE-visa
+28%
MalaysiaE-visa
+48%
U.A.E.visa on arrival, free of charge
+36%
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.10
14 May 17 21 May 17 28 May 17 04 Jun 17 11 Jun 17 18 Jun 17 25 Jun 17 02 Jul 17 09 Jul 17
Dai
ly U
K a
rriv
als
in N
Z
Daily arrivals from UK to New Zealand
2017 2016
OTB
+290% Hist.
Destination New Zealand
NZ
+350%1st Test
June 24th
VS
VS
Opening match June 3rd 2017
VS
Last match July 8th
: British and Irish Lions tour warmed the winter
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.11
What is next?
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.12
Destination South Korea: suffering the absence of Chinese travellers
International
Excl. China
+11% -19%-21%China to South Korea flight capacity
China to South Korea flight capacity
2016 Year to Date Forward Looking
Full Year Jan to Sep 15th 2017 Sep 16th to Dec 31st 2017
25%
16%
-50% 0%
International
Excl. China
-30%
-0.4%
-50% 0%
-22%
-6%
-50% 0%
KR
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.13
Destination Guam: forward looking is worrying towards year end
September 19th 2017
Jan 1st to FIRST THREATFIRST THREAT until Sep 19th
Arrivals from Japan
-13% -30%
Arrivals from South Korea
+41% +12%
Total international arrivals in Guam
+11% -9%
FIRST THREAT August 9th
2017January 1st
2017
Year-on-year variations of international air arrivals in Guam: 2017 Year to Date & On the Book
December 31st 2017
YoY %Var. of Arrivals on the bookSep 20th to Dec 31st 2017
-24%
+14%
-3%
On the Book
© Forward Data SL, 2017. All Rights Reserved.14
New Zealand(+11%; 8%)
Philippines(+8%; 11%)Malaysia
(+11%; 13%)
Indonesia(+22%; 11%)
Vietnam(+16%; 20%)
Australia(+8%; 5%)
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific destinations: South Korea was the only loser among Top 15
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Jameson WongDirector of Business Development
– APAC
Mobile: +65 9325 5026