Past, Present and Future(?) · Future Trends Affecting the Strip. 2017 Big Box Retail Store...

Re-vitalizing the Commercial StripPast, Present and Future(?)

Arnett Development Group7 South State Street

Concord, New Hampshire 03301

A Proposition

The “strip”, as we know it, will cease to exist as a distinct and identifiable landscape type within twenty-years.

• A Cursory Review of the Strip’s Evolution

• A Current Assessment of the Strip

• Future Trends Affecting the Dissolution of the Strip

• Re-vitalizing the Strip

Re-vitalizing the “Strip”

Evolution of the Strip

1890 - 2015

Catalysts for Change

• Demographics• Where we choose to live & work

• Technology• Technical advances that profoundly affect social behavior

• Transportation• How we choose to get from point A to point B

• Commerce• Where and how we chose to shop

• Government• Incentives and laws that guide or stimulate development

1890

• Demographics• Predominantly Rural

• Technology• The Combustion Engine• Urban Electrification

• Transportation• Railways connect the country

• Commerce• Mail Order Catalog Sales

(Montgomery Ward 1872)(Hammacher Schlemmer 1881)(Sears & Roebuck 1888)

• Government• Pacific Railway Act of 1862

1900-1925

• Settlement Patterns• Urban, Dirty, Congested• Land Speculation

• Technology • Telephone

• Transportation• Electric streetcar• The Model T

• Commerce• Urban Department Stores (Henry

Gordon Selfridge )• Chain Stores Emerge (A&P)• Door-to-door sales (Fuller Brush)

• Government• Zoning (NYC 1916)• Federal Road Acts 1916 & 1921

1900-1925

• Settlement Patterns• Urban, Dirty, Congested• Land Speculation (“tax payers”)

• Technology • Telephone

• Transportation• Electric streetcar• The Model T

• Commerce• Urban Department Stores (Henry

Gordon Selfridge )• Chain Stores Emerge (A&P)• Door-to-door sales (Fuller Brush)

• Government• Zoning (NYC 1916)• Federal Road Acts 1916 & 1921

1925-1940

• Demographics• Urban working class population

increases• Middle class begins streaming to

suburbs

• Technology• Radio promotes advertising

(birth of the “brand”)• Rural electrification

• Transportation• Automobile is common mode • Decline of the trolley

• Commerce• Chain Stores (A&P, 13,961 in 1925)• Convenience Stores (Tote’m 1928)

• Government• New Deal

1945-1965

• Demographics• Dawn of Suburbia

• Technology• Television (advertising)

• Transportation• Automobile Commerce• Emergence of the strip

(McDonalds 1953) • Big Box stores(Wal-Mart 1962)• Customer to Consumer

• Government• Housing Act of 1949 &1954 • 1954 Adjustment to Tax Code• The Federal-Aid Highway Act of

1956• Real Estate Investment Trust Act

of 1960

1945-1965

• Demographics• Dawn of Suburbia

• Technology• Television (advertising)

• Transportation• Automobile continues to provide

cost efficient transportation• Commerce

• Emergence of the strip (McDonalds 1953)

• Big Box stores(Wal-Mart 1962)• Customer to Consumer

• Government• Housing Act 1949 &1954• 1954 Adjustment to Tax Code• The Federal-Aid Highway Act of

1956• Real Estate Investment Trust Act

of 1960

1965-2000

• Demographics• Suburban sprawl• New Urbanism

• Technology• Internet

• Transportation• Automobile (energy crisis)

• Commerce• Shopping Networks (QVC 1986)• Online shopping (Amazon 1994)

• Government• Intermodal Surface

Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991 (ISTEA)

2000 -2015

• Demographics• Suburban & Rural migration

• Technology• Wireless Technology

• Transportation• Electric Cars• Light Rail• Multi-Modal

• Commerce• Online Shopping (79%)• Big Box Closures

• Government• American Recovery &

Reinvestment Act 2009• Prime Interest Rate Reduction

Current Assessment of the Strip

2017

Common Characteristics

• > 70% Retail Oriented

• Corporate/Absentee Ownership

• Big Box stores are Primary Anchors and People Generators

• Vehicular Orientated; Poor pedestrian circulation

• Poorly integrated with the rest of the community

• Undistinguished Architecture; No sense of place

Common Characteristics

• > 70% Retail Oriented

• Corporate/Absentee Ownership

• Big Box stores are Primary Anchors and People Generators

• Vehicular Orientated; Poor pedestrian circulation

• Poorly integrated with the rest of the community

• Undistinguished Architecture; No sense of Place

Future Trends Affecting the Strip

2017

Trend in Consumer Online Shopping

• 1994 First Internet Sale*

• 2007 Internet Sales Exceeded Store sales for 1st time

• 2015 Internet Sales Surpass $300 Billion

• 2016 Pew Research reports 79% of Americans now shop online


2017

Big Box Retail Store Closings*

Lack of Competitive Pricing

Uninformed Sales Associates

Poor e-Commerce Performance (email, digital marketing etc.)

Low Profile on Social Media (poor consumer reviews regarding shopping experience)

Failure to see consumer as customer; poor in-store experience

Inertia** This list alone represents 3,231 closings


2017

Mall Vacancy Rates

• Recession Sensitive – Peak Vacancy Rates In Late 80s & Early 90s

• Vacancy Rate Declined & Held Steady Up To The Great Recession Of 2008, Peaked Again 2010-11

• 2013 & 2014 Showed Some Recovery But Has Been Flat Last 18 Months

• This Chart Does Not Reflect Projected Closing Of 3,231 Stores On Previous Chart

Blue Line Represents Strip MallsRed Line Represents Regional Malls

Future Trends Influencing The Strip

21st Century Catalysts

2017-2030

CATALYSTS FOR CHANGE

• Demographics

• “Smart” Connectivity (“Smart Cities”)

• Health, Wellness & Well-Being

• Global Marketing & Sales

• Universal Mobility

During the thirty year period between 1940 and 1970 the United States grew approximately 55%. Between 1985 and 2000 growth had slowed to 35%. Between 2010 and 2030 it is projected to grow at 12%.

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• Between 2015 and 2030 New Hampshire's population is projected grow approximately 3-5%.

• Though the New England area continues to grow, it’s percentage of the national population is diminishing.

• By 2030 New England will constitute less than 5% of the country’s population.

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An Aging Population

New England’s overall population growth is lagging significantly behind the rest of the country, but it’s 65 and older population is growing significantly faster.

By 2030 it is projected that around 20% of the country will be 65 or older.

Five out of the six New England states will exceed the national average. Maine(26.5%) population will trail only Florida’s (27.1%) population 65 or older.

New Hampshire’s 65 or older population will approach 21.4% while Vermont will be nearer to 24.4%

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CONNECTIVITY AND CONVERGENCE:

• By 2020, there will be over 5 billion internet users. Over half of them will access the internet over handheld tablet devices; 80 billion devices will be connected worldwide.

• Connectivity will integrate work, home and our surrounding environment into one seamless experience, referred to as “connected living.” The “smart city” market expected to be worth $1.5 trillion by 2020.

• This connectivity will push other sub trends, like “big data” to create market opportunities for new “smart” products and services which will have the ability to sense, process, report, and take corrective action.

• Smart (connected) products will be everywhere around us from smart clothing, watches, phones, to smart buildings and smart cities.

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HEALTH, WELLNESS AND WELL-BEING:• The Logic Of Kondratieff Economic Cycles Suggest That Health Care Will Be The

Next Economic Mega Cycle

• Healthcare Will Account For 20 Percent Of A Nation’s GDP In A Developed World.

• Focus Will Shift To Mass Prevention And Diagnoses And To Wellness Aspects Of The Mind, Body And Soul.

• In 2015 13% Of Population Is Over 65; By 2030 That Number Will Be 19%

• Life Expectancy Is Increasing And Is Expected To Accelerate In The Coming Decades Due To Medical Advancements. Maintaining An Independent, High Quality Of Life Is Important To Baby Boomers; Generation X Is Becoming Aware Of This As Well.

4

A GLOBAL MARKET

• By 2030, 85% Of Humankind Will Be Living In Emerging Markets (Asia/Africa)

• In 2016 The Combined Revenue Of Apple, Amazon, Google & Facebook Exceeded The GDP Of 88% Of Countries Worldwide.

• By 2030 Less Than 10 Companies May Account For 70% Of Retail Sales.

• A Connected Community Of 5 Billion Internet Users Will Allow Entrepreneurs And Businesses To “Make One, Sell Many,” Resulting In A New Business Model Of “Value For Many” (Angry Birds)

• 34% Of The US Workforce Is Currently Freelancing, Transacting $715 Billion In GMV, (Gross Merchandise Value). Freelancing Is Projected To Grow To 40% By 2020

5

THE AGE OF ACCESSIBLE MOBILITY

• In The Future, The Emphasis Will Be On Comprehensive Multi-modal Systems Rather Than Individual/Personal Vehicles.

• By 2020 Car Sharing Services (Zip Car, Reachnow, Enjoy,) Will Grow To Be A $6.2 Billion Industry, With Over 12 Million Members Worldwide.

• Related Industries Such As Car Leasing Firms (Hertz On Demand, Avis On Location) And Motorist Clubs Such as AAA (Gig) Are Already Diversifying Into Car Sharing Services.

• By 2030 It Is Projected That One In Four (25%) Cars On The Road Will Be Self-driving. Autonomous Vehicles Will Dominate The Freight & Delivery Transportation Industries.

• “Smart” And Fully “Connected” Mobility Systems Will Solve The “First And Last Mile” Commuter And Delivery Problems.

TREND TAKE AWAY:

• Rapid Growth In The South And West Will Attract The Majority Of Investment and Development Dollars, Including Allocation of Federal Assistance.

• A Large Aging Population (20% plus), Especially In The Northeast Will Fuel The Development Of The Heath, Wellness And Well-Being Industry.

• The Development of the “Internet of Things” Will Spur the Development of Smart Cities, Impacting Infrastructure In Particular.

• Connected Community Of 5 Billion Individuals Will result In New Opportunities For Entrepreneurs And Businesses To Prosper based on the “Value For Many” Principle.

• A “Smart Traffic Grid” and the Rise of the Autonomous Automobile Will result in a More Fluid Community. Multi-Modal Transportation Systems Drive (no pun intended) Public Spending.

TAKE AWAY

The Future of the Strip

2020 - 2040

AS PLANNERS & DESIGNERS IT IS OUR ROLE TO STRUCTURE THE LEGAL FRAMEWORK

AND INFORM THE SPATIAL ORGANIZATION WITHIN WHICH THE STRIP WILL CONTINUE TO

EVOLVE.

5 SALIENT POINTS TO PONDER

1. How Will Transformation of Retail In the 21st Century Impact My Community?

• How Much Retail Space Is At “High Risk” In My Community? (Big Box Retail & National Franchise Stores in particular)

• How Will A Decline In Retail Space Impact My Community’s Grand List & Tax Base?

• How Will The Loss Of Retail Jobs Affect Employment In My Community?

2. Will We Need To Amend Our Zoning Ordinance To Attract 21st Century Development?

• Will We Need To Delineate New Types Of Districts Or Zoning Overlays? (Urban Agriculture)

• Will We Need To Accommodate New Uses Emerging In The 21st Century? (3D Printing)

5 SALIENT POINTS TO PONDER (cont.)

3. Will We Need To Amend Our Municipal Ordinances, I.E. Subdivision Ordinance, Site Plan Review, And Local Building Codes To Restructure The 21st Century Strip?

• How Will We Encourage Pedestrian Connections Within The Restructured Strip?

• How Will We Encourage The Integration Of Social And Cultural Amenities Within The 21st Century Strip To Enhance Quality Of Life Within The Strip?

4. What Will We Need To Do To Better Integrate The Strip With The Rest Of The Community?

• What Opportunities Exist To Create A Network Of Multi-modal Trails Between The Strip, The Downtown And The Residential Areas Of The Community?

• How Do We Encourage Restructuring The Strip While Revitalizing Our Downtowns And Village Centers?

5 SALIENT POINTS TO PONDER (cont.)

5. What Will Be The Infrastructure Demands Of The 21st Century?

• How Will We Finance New Infrastructure i.e. “Smart Roads” And Improved Wireless Communications While Maintaining Our Current Systems?

• How Much Support From The State And Federal Government Will We Be Able To Expect?

• Will We Need To Consider Public Private Partnerships (3Ps) For Major Capital Improvements And Crowdfunding For Minor Enhancements?

Summary

World of Tomorrow

THANK YOU

Arnett Development Group7 South State Street

Concord, New Hampshire 03301

Past, Present and Future(?) · Future Trends Affecting the Strip. 2017 Big Box Retail Store...

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Transcript of Past, Present and Future(?) · Future Trends Affecting the Strip. 2017 Big Box Retail Store...