“Cowardice rightly understood begins with selfishness and ends with shame.” – Josh Radnor

EdisiXLIII/XII/2018

Rilis Mingguan (3 – 7 Desember 2018)

12/03 JapanNikkei Japan PMI Mfg

(Nov F)52.2 51.8

Vehicle Sales YoY (Nov) 8.3% 13.0%

12/03South

Korea

Nikkei South Korea PMI

Mfg (Nov)48.6 51.0

12/04 GDP YoY (3Q F) 2.0% 2.0%

CPI YoY (Nov) 2.0% 2.0%

12/04 SingaporePurchasing Managers

Index (Nov)51.5 51.9

Ket: Final

3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD 3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD

IDRUSD 14244 14480 -1.63% -6.39% BRENTUSD/BAREL 61.69 61.67 -0.03% 2.07%

YENUSD 113.66 112.69 0.86% 0.00% TEMBAGAUSD/LB 279.95 275.75 -1.50% 10.06%

EUROUSD 0.88 0.88 0.35% -5.09% BATU BARAUSD/MT 102.45 102.55 0.10% 1.74%

YUAN USD 6.88 6.87 0.13% -5.35% EMASUSD/OZ 1230.67 1249.31 1.51% -4.11%

POUNDUSD 0.79 0.79 0.05% -5.77% GAS ALAMUSD/MMBTu 4.34 4.49 3.43% -99.96%

3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD 3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD

INDONESIAIHSG 6118.3 6126.4 0.13% -3.61% CPOMYR/MT 1813 1793 -1.10% -26.64%

JEPANGNIKKEI 22574.8 21678.7 -3.97% -4.77% KAKAOUSD/MT 2144 2175 1.45% 14.96%

SINGAPURASTI 3190.6 3111.1 -2.49% -8.57% GULAUSD/LB 350.4 345.6 -1.37% -12.44%

ASDOW JONES 25826.4 24389.0 -5.57% -1.34% GANDUMUSD/BAREL 515.8 520 0.73% 21.66%

HONGKONGHSI 27182.0 26063.8 -4.11% -12.89% KEDELAIUSD/BUSHEL 905.75 917 1.21% -3.68%

3-Dec-18 7-Dec-18 WTD YTD

YIELD SBN10% 7.83 8.04 2.62% 27.16%

PUAB RATE% 7.20 7.23 0.35% 24.14%

OVERNIGHT% 5.93 5.90 -0.44% 51.35%

FA SAHAMJUTA USD -54.30 -37.06 31.75% -249.10%

FA SBNJUTA USD -45.44 -18.58 59.11% -149.51%

PASAR VALAS PASAR KOMODITAS MINERAL

PASAR SAHAM PASAR KOMODITAS PERTANIAN

PASAR UANG

-21.20

-15.88

-12.82

-8.57

-8.32

-6.47

-5.91

-3.61

1.55

China SHCOMP

Korea Stock KOSPI Index

Philippines PSEi Index

Singapore STI Index

Vietnam Hanoi Index

FTSE Malaysia KLCI Index

Thailand SET Index

Indonesia JCI

India NSE Nifty 50 Index

Aliran Dana Asing

YTD (Juta USD)Bond Saham

Periode

(Bond/Saham)

Indonesia 3,820.9 -3,354.5 Per 7 Desember 2018

Malaysia -4,187.1 -2,660 Per 30 Nov/7 Des 2018

Thailand 9,296.0 -8,718.3 Per 7 Desember 2018

Vietnam 1,857.2 Per 7 Desember 2018

Filipina 4,620.0 -1,050.9 Per 30 Sep / 7 Des 2018

China 72,157.2 7,860.7 Per 30 September 2018

India -7,046.9 -4,249.0 Per 7 Desember 2018

US 33,923 -83,525 Per 30 September 2018

PERINGKAT SAHAM ASIA (%) YTD – s.d 7 DESEMBER 2018

-10.22

-9.79

-6.39

-5.48

-5.35

-2.89

-0.77

0.00

Vietnam Dong

Indian Rupee

Indonesian Rupiah

Philippine Peso

Chinese Renminbi

Malaysian Ringgit

Thai Bath

Japanese Yen

PERINGKAT NILAI TUKAR ASIA (%) YTD – s.d 7 DESEMBER 2018

Ket: Aliran Dana Masuk/Aliran Dana Keluar

12/03 IndonesiaNikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg

(Nov)50.4 50.5

CPI YoY (Nov) 3.23% 3.16%

12/06Consumer Confidence Index

(Nov)122.7 119.2

12/03 USMarkit US Manufacturing PMI

(Nov F)55.3 55.4

12/06 Trade Balance (Oct) -$55.5b -$54.0b

12/03 China Caixin China PMI Mfg (Nov) 50.2 50.1

Menggali Produk Ekspor

Potensial IndonesiaOleh: Haqiqi Masnatin (Tenaga Analis, Asisten Deputi Moneter dan Neraca Pembayaran)

3.66

23.73

-45

-25

-5

15

35

55

01/2

009

08/2

009

03/2

010

10/2

010

05/2

011

12/2

011

07/2

012

02/2

013

09/2

013

04/2

014

11/2

014

06/2

015

01/2

016

08/2

016

03/2

017

10/2

017

05/2

018

Pertumbuhan Ekspor (%yoy) Pertumbuhan Impor (%yoy)

Sumber: CEIC, diolah

10 Besar Komoditas Ekspor Indonesia 2017 (share SDA = 36,4% terhadap total ekspor Indonesia) - berdasarkan HS 6

Sumber: Intracen, diolah

10 Besar Komoditas Ekspor Indonesia 2007 (share SDA = 40,5% terhadap total ekspor Indonesia) - berdasarkan HS 6

Pertumbuhan nilai ekspor Indonesia lebih lambatdaripada pertumbuhan nilai impor……

…. sementara ketergantungan ekspor terhadapproduk berbasis sumber daya alam masih tinggi

Padahal harga komoditas cenderung melambat

74.31106.98

65.17

Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18

Brent Crude (USD/bbl.)

5.81 5.97

4.14

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

LNG (USD/MMbTU)

97.00

51.31

100.73

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Batu Bara (USD/MT)

830.88

539.78

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

3.04

1.23

Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18

Karet (USD/Kg)

Minyak Sawit (USD/MT)

Komoditas

Indeks Harga (2010=100)

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Energy 109.3 66.4 58.5 70.0 94.0 93.4

Non Energi 89.5 83.2 84.3 85.9 87.9 87.1

Logam Mulia 93.4 92.6 103.6 100.6 99.9 97.2

Indeks Harga Komoditas Global dan Proyeksi 2019

Sumber: World Bank

RSCA 2017 > 0• Kontribusi ekspor suatu produk terhadap ekspor

Indonesia relatif terhadap kontribusi ekspor suatu produk

terhadap nilai total ekspor dunia.

• Nilai 0 < RSCA < 1 artinya Indonesia terbukti lebih

terspesialisasi dalam mengekspor produk tersebut.

• Semakin terspesialisasi berarti industri Indonesia relatif

efisien dalam memproduksi dan mengekspor suatu

produk.

CAGR Global Demand (3Y) > 0• Seberapa cepat nilai impor dunia terhadap suatu produk

tumbuh dalam 3 tahun terakhir.

• Semakin cepat pertumbuhan impor dunia, semakin besar

potensi peningkatan nilai ekspor Indonesia di masa

depan.

CAGR Ekspor Indonesia (3Y) > 0• Seberapa cepat nilai ekspor Indonesia terhadap suatu

produk tumbuh dalam 3 tahun terakhir.

• Semakin cepat pertumbuhan ekspor Indonesia, semakin

besar potensi peningkatan nilai ekspor di masa depan.

Surplus & BCI < 1 (3Y)

Balassa-Corden Index (BCI) adalah indeks

yang digunakan untuk mengukur

perbandingan harga relatif domestik dan

internasional. Indikator ini menggambarkan

perbandingan harga domestik dan harga

impor. BCI < 1 artinya harga domestik lebih

murah/bisa bersaing daripada harga

internasional

Dari 5885 komoditas HS 6 digit, dipilih komoditas dengan

RSCA 2017 > 0; CAGR Global Demand 2015-2017 > 0; dan

CAGR Ekspor Indonesia 2015-2017 > 0

Dari 351 komoditas, dipilih komoditas yang

selalu surplus perdagangan selama 3 tahun

terakhir dan nilai BCI < 1

1

2

Oleh karena itu, sebaiknya Indonesia mencari produk ekspor potensial yang memiliki sustained comparative advantage (RSCA>0), pertumbuhan permintaan global yang tinggi (CAGR>0), pertumbuhan

ekspor yang tinggi (CAGR>0), dan harga yang berdaya saing secara internasional (BCI<1).

20 dari 106 Komoditas yang Potensial untuk Didorong Ekspornya - dgn Share Tertinggi

Code Product labelRSCA

Indonesia 2017CAGR Ekspor

Indonesia (3Y)CAGR Global Demand (3Y)

Share

'151190Palm oil and its fractions, whether or not refined (excluding chemically modified and crude)

0.97 7.90 5.46 8.18

'270119Coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated (excluding anthracite and bituminous coal)

0.98 11.81 13.01 6.21

'270112 Bituminous coal, whether or not pulverised, non-agglomerated 0.79 0.74 14.51 4.37

'260300 Copper ores and concentrates 0.72 1.63 8.51 2.04

'470329Semi-bleached or bleached non-coniferous chemical wood pulp, soda or sulphate (excluding dissolving grades)

0.89 9.83 4.53 1.35

'151329Palm kernel and babassu oil and their fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (excluding crude)

0.97 20.40 14.97 1.09

'382319Fatty acids, industrial, monocarboxylic; acid oils from refining (excluding stearic acid, oleic acid and tall oil fatty acids)

0.95 16.19 11.40 1.04

'720260 Ferro-nickel 0.94 59.15 7.16 0.79

'740311 Copper, refined, in the form of cathodes and sections of cathodes 0.36 24.98 2.74 0.64

'480256Uncoated paper and paperboard, of a kind used for writing, printing or other graphic purposes, and …..

0.89 0.50 0.72 0.62

'240220 Cigarettes, containing tobacco 0.55 4.25 5.56 0.49

'151790Edible mixtures or preparations of animal or vegetable fats or oils and edible fractions of different fats or oils (excluding fats, oils and their fractions, partly or …

0.90 13.81 4.30 0.49

'382370 Fatty alcohols, industrial 0.92 34.50 13.48 0.45

'480257Uncoated paper and paperboard, of a kind used for writing, printing or other graphic purposes, and non-perforated punchcards and punch-tape paper, in …

0.90 11.90 1.99 0.35

'480300Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel or napkin stock and similar paper for household or sanitary purposes, cellulose wadding and webs of cellulose fibres, whether …

0.87 6.40 2.39 0.31

'611020Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles, of cotton, knitted or crocheted (excluding wadded waistcoats)

0.43 12.63 0.07 0.29

'291590Saturated acyclic monocarboxylic acids, their anhydrides, halides, peroxides and peroxyacids; their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives …

0.89 17.36 4.07 0.27

'210111 Extracts, essences and concentrates, of coffee 0.79 10.65 3.61 0.27

'151319Coconut oil and its fractions, whether or not refined, but not chemically modified (excluding crude)

0.92 7.84 8.02 0.27

'400280Mixtures of natural rubber, balata, gutta-percha, guayule, chicle or similar types of natural rubber with synthetic rubber or factice, in primary forms or in plates …

0.81 155.37 82.52 0.26

Hasilnya terdapat 351 komoditas

Hasilnya terdapat 106 komoditas