Party in the electorate. Business analogy Investors (Activists, donors) Fund, organize, Shape...
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Transcript of Party in the electorate. Business analogy Investors (Activists, donors) Fund, organize, Shape...
![Page 1: Party in the electorate. Business analogy Investors (Activists, donors) Fund, organize, Shape product to appeal to consumers Product (Candidates and Policies)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bf701a28abf838c7d8ae/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Party in the electorate
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Business analogy
Investors(Activists, donors)
Fund, organize,Shape product to appeal to consumers
Product(Candidates and Policies)
Consumers(Party identifiers)
Consumers determine what products are most attractive
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Today: the consumers.
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Are party identifiers part of the party organization?
![Page 5: Party in the electorate. Business analogy Investors (Activists, donors) Fund, organize, Shape product to appeal to consumers Product (Candidates and Policies)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bf701a28abf838c7d8ae/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Freewrite
• What is your earliest political memory? What does that memory tell you about the way you developed your political identity?
![Page 6: Party in the electorate. Business analogy Investors (Activists, donors) Fund, organize, Shape product to appeal to consumers Product (Candidates and Policies)](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022070415/5697bf701a28abf838c7d8ae/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Party identification
• A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party
• An information processing shortcut
• An information screen
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Will the issue of global warming play an important or not important role in your decision to vote for a congressional
candidate in November, or will it not be a factor in your vote? (LA Times poll, Aug 2006, 1478 reg. voters)
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Democrats Republicans Independents
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Which comes closest to your view? Gay couples should be allowed to legally marry. OR, Gay couples should be allowed to form civil unions
but not legally marry. OR, There should be no legal recognition of a gay couple's relationship? (CBS poll, Oct 2006, 1086 adults)
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Legal marriage Civil unions No legalrecognition
Unsure
Republicans Democrats Independents
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Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling gas prices? (June 2006, CBS poll, 659 adults)
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Approve Disapprove Unsure
Republicans Democrats Independents
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Party identification
• A socialized, psychological attachment to a political party
• An information processing shortcut
• An information screen
• A predictor of vote choice
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Party ID as predictor of vote choice for president
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1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Strong Reps
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Does a person’s party id change over time?
• Mostly not.• But sometimes. When?• In periods of political upheaval
– Period effects– Generation effects
• In responses to changes in life circumstances– Life cycle effects– Young more likely to change
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Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
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Did you read a newspaper about the 2004 presidential election?
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StrongDems
WeakDems
IndleanDem
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IndleanReep
WeakReps
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Did you vote in the 2004 presidential election?
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StrongDems
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IndleanDem
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IndleanReep
WeakReps
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Strong partisans
• More likely to vote, be informed, and participate
Why?
• Better information processing
• Got somebody to root for
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What do we know about independents?
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Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
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Partisanship
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1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
Democrats Republicans Independents
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Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• Some other “independents” are clueless
• Only about 10% of voters are true political independents
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Of the Independents…
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Party leaners True independent No preference Don't know
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Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Dems)
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1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
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Percent of party identifiers voting for their party’s presidential candidate (Reeps)
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1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Ind lean Rep Weak Reps Strong Reps
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Independents
• There are fewer of them than partisans
• Many who say they are “independent” actually lean
• Leaners are fairly reliable party voters
• True attitudinal independents less likely to be informed, vote, participate
• Behavioral independents / split ticketers do determine election outcomes
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Behavioral independents, Dems
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1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Dems Weak Dems Ind lean Dem
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Behavioral independents, Reps
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1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Strong Reps Weak Reps Ind lean Rep
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Is party identification good for democracy?