Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with...

22
Participation and cooperation in global climate governance: new evidence from the regime level Sam Rowan Oxford University [email protected] IPES 2017

Transcript of Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with...

Page 1: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Participation and cooperation in global climate governance: new evidence from the regime level

Sam Rowan Oxford University

[email protected] IPES 2017

Page 2: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Paris Agreement 2015

Page 3: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Motivation

•  Existing work is equivocal on whether participation in international institutions changes states’ behavior

•  Selection bias is not the only problem that hinders the study of how institutions affect state behavior

1.  Insufficient variation in participation •  Universal membership of many IOs •  Binary indicator of membership/ratification

2.  Difficulty measuring cooperative behavior •  Common institutional obligations •  Compliant, non-compliant, not a member

Page 4: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

PARTICIPATION in climate

governance institutions

COOPERATION in reducing

greenhouse gas emissions

Page 5: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Two conceptual shifts

1.  Participation conceptualized at the regime level –  Patterns of institutional memberships –  Scaling models to score participation

2.  Cooperation conceptualized as a level of cooperative adjustment –  Situations where states express their willingness to cooperate –  Novel treaty designs

•  Do states that participate more extensively in climate governance set more ambitious targets subsequently?

Page 6: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Participation •  Standard approach: binary indicator of membership •  My approach: continuous participation scores

•  60 different climate governance institutions with state members

•  UNFCCC as most important institution, but not the only forum in climate governance

•  Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory (IRT) –  Spatial model of political behavior –  Legislative and judicial politics

•  Martin and Quinn PA 2002; Clinton et al. APSR 2004 •  In IR: Bailey et al. JCR 2017; Lupu JCR 2016

Page 7: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Two images of climate governance

Keohane and Victor PoP 2011 My new dataset

Page 8: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =
Page 9: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

State ideal points in climate governance

Bahamas Brunei Bahrain Latvia Qatar Saudi Arabia

New Zealand Denmark US

Nauru Seychelles Venezuela Iran Czech Republic Turkey Costa Rica Brazil UK

Timor-Leste Eritrea Namibia Sierra

Leone Bolivia Nepal Morocco India

-2 -1 0 1 2

GDP -- IGOs -- Renewables - Fossil rents +

GDP ++ IGOs ++

Renewables + Fossil rents -

Page 10: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Cooperation

•  Institutions often set common policy levels that all members must adopt –  Tariff at 5%, cut emissions by 7%, end child labor, etc. –  Skews membership (especially around the treaty

level) since meeting these standards is more costly for some states than others

–  Truncates and censors: compliant, non-compliant, not a member

–  Broader-deeper tradeoff, lowest common denominator

•  Want instances where states consider different levels of cooperation explicitly

Page 11: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Paris targets: “bottom-up”

•  States selected their own GHG emissions reductions targets before meeting at COP21 in Paris in 2015

–  Intended Nationally Determined Contributions –  Conscious treaty design to maximize participation

•  Targets are expressed in really different formats •  Comparing effort of countries with different historical and

current emissions and capabilities to contribute •  Ambition: the distance between a country’s Paris target and 5

equity quotas –  Assigning emissions quotas as a function of different combinations of

GHG emissions per capita and GDP per capita –  Robiou du Pont et al. NCC 2017; www.paris-equity-check.org

Page 12: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =
Page 13: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =
Page 14: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Data

•  Main outcome variable: ambition of Paris target –  Operationalized as distance from median of equity quotas –  Range: (-94.6, 684.9), mean: 23.4, meaningful 0 (INDC=median) –  Data from Robiou du Pont et al. NCC 2017

•  Main explanatory variable: participation in climate governance –  Operationalized with IRT –  Range: (-2.5, 2.3), mean: 0

•  Estimation: OLS and 2SLS regressions –  Regional IRT score as instrument

•  Buthe and Milner 2008, Simmons 2009, Ansell and Samuels 2014, Cole 2015, von Stein 2016

Page 15: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

OLS and 2SLS regressions of INDC target depth (1) (2) (3)

Median Mean Median

IRT ideal point -26.663** -25.026** -92.098* (6.952) (7.464) (37.853)

Sum of IGO memberships -0.994* -0.863* 0.136 (0.389) (0.418) (0.809)

GDP per capita (logged) 30.429** 34.818** 26.993** (6.461) (6.937) (7.376)

GHG emissions (logged) 18.023** 16.238** 33.510** (3.452) (3.707) (9.393)

Environmental Performance Index -0.09 0.337 -0.633 (0.657) (0.706) (0.862)

Vulnerability -73.255 -83.903 -79.482 (99.95) (107.31) (110.888)

Fossil fuel rents 7.612 2.807 -0.455 (4.062) (4.361) (8.034)

Constant -364.09** -444.91** -483.012** (107.64) (115.57) (169.983)

R-squared 0.63 0.60 0.37 N 161 161 161 Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * = p <0.05 ** = p <0.01

Page 16: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

OLS marginal effects

IRT ideal point GDP per capita

Page 17: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Conclusion

•  The effect of participation in international institutions on cooperation is difficult to study

–  Selection bias –  Limited variation in membership in headline institutions –  Common treaty levels censor and truncate observations of cooperativeness

•  Variation in participation at the regime level is meaningful and can be scored

•  Cooperativeness can be revealed by different types of targets

•  States that participate more accept more costly and ambitious targets than states that participate less

Page 18: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Thank you! Sam Rowan [email protected]

Page 19: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Five equity quotas •  Capabilities (CAP)

•  Countries with high GDP reduce more

•  Cumulative per capita (CPC) •  Countries with high historical GHG

reduce more •  Equality (EPC)

•  Per capita emissions converge in 2100

•  Greenhouse dev.t rights (GDR)

•  Countries with high GDP and GHG reduce more

•  Constant emissions ratio (CER)

•  All reduce by same percentage from 2010 levels

GHG per capita GDP per

capita No Yes

No CER

EPC (present GHG)

CPC (historical GHG)

Yes CAP GDR (historical GHG)

IPCC, Working Group 3, 5th Assessment Report (2014), chapter 6 Robiou du Pont et al. NCC 2017 www.paris-equity-check.org

Page 20: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =
Page 21: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Participation in climate governance

Country Year FCCC Kyoto PMR CPLC PCD IRENA GGFRP …

Bangladesh 2015 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 …

Georgia 2015 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 …

Germany 2015 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 …

Ghana 2015 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 …

Mexico 2015 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 …

Morocco 2015 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 …

Vietnam 2015 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 …

USA 2015 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 …

… … … … … … … … … …

probit regression with unobserved regressors

Page 22: Participation and cooperation in global climate …€¢ Operationalizing participation with Bayesian item response theory ... Region dummies Yes Yes No Instrumented No No Yes * =

Scaling participation with item response theory

•  Membership decisions are substantive choices

•  Spatial theory of political behavior

•  States join institutions whose goals are nearer their own and don’t join institutions whose goals diverge from their own

•  Bayesian item response theory (IRT) estimates state ideal points and the characteristics of institutions


Tranquility Vertical Stack (TSL) Series...A = ADA B A YES NO NO NO NO NO PSC PSC STANDARD LOW STATIC YES YES NO YES YES NO NO YES YES YES YES YES NO NO NO NO ECM CONSTANT VOLUME (DXM2

Tranquility Vertical Stack (TSL) Series...A = ADA B A YES NO NO NO NO NO PSC PSC STANDARD LOW STATIC YES YES NO YES YES NO NO YES YES YES YES YES NO NO NO NO ECM CONSTANT VOLUME (DXM2

SCHOOL INSURANCE APPLICATION · Employees Volunteers Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No years years Yes No. Page 5 of 12 Sexual Misconduct Liability If coverage is desired,

SCHOOL INSURANCE APPLICATION · Employees Volunteers Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No years years Yes No. Page 5 of 12 Sexual Misconduct Liability If coverage is desired,

Table of Contents - download.ivanti.com · Mantis 2.1.0+ SOAP Yes Yes Yes Yes VSTS / TFS 2017+ Basic Yes Yes Yes Yes SalesForce OAuth Yes Yes No No HP Quality Center Cookies No No

Table of Contents - download.ivanti.com · Mantis 2.1.0+ SOAP Yes Yes Yes Yes VSTS / TFS 2017+ Basic Yes Yes Yes Yes SalesForce OAuth Yes Yes No No HP Quality Center Cookies No No

37-B 38-A 38-B 40.A 100 500 250 100 Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Smt Shabana Parveen Sh_ Sh_ Masque Masjid

37-B 38-A 38-B 40.A 100 500 250 100 Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Smt Shabana Parveen Sh_ Sh_ Masque Masjid

· PDF filefor Saudi Aramco in 2012 (Valentine ... Blasting NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES ... known to Raychem as tackifiers for

· PDF filefor Saudi Aramco in 2012 (Valentine ... Blasting NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES NO YES ... known to Raychem as tackifiers for

2018 SHARS - MAC Participation Report - rad.hhs.texas.gov · PDF file18 18 195902 balmorhea isd yes yes 20 20 010902 bandera isd no yes 15 15 025901 bangs isd no yes 02 02 178913 banquete

2018 SHARS - MAC Participation Report - rad.hhs.texas.gov · PDF file18 18 195902 balmorhea isd yes yes 20 20 010902 bandera isd no yes 15 15 025901 bangs isd no yes 02 02 178913 banquete

(M) 30320 31366 21666 29236 32124 No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Detailed Project Report is placed before the DRC , the abstract of the report is as under :-

(M) 30320 31366 21666 29236 32124 No No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Detailed Project Report is placed before the DRC , the abstract of the report is as under :-

Best Engineering College of Rajasthan | Top Engineering College.Bhamashah Card Aadhar Card For Office Use (Document Received) Yes No Yes / NO Yes No Yes / No Yes I No Yes / No Yes

Best Engineering College of Rajasthan | Top Engineering College.Bhamashah Card Aadhar Card For Office Use (Document Received) Yes No Yes / NO Yes No Yes / No Yes I No Yes / No Yes

MDGS.TASE MDGS.Nasdaq Sept 2016 - medigus.com · Stomach acid rises ... MUSE™ EGS Torax yes yes yes yes yes yes 1 Mederi no no yes GI/Surgeon no no no no no no no 1 Surgeon ...

MDGS.TASE MDGS.Nasdaq Sept 2016 - medigus.com · Stomach acid rises ... MUSE™ EGS Torax yes yes yes yes yes yes 1 Mederi no no yes GI/Surgeon no no no no no no no 1 Surgeon ...

TAV Service Note Review Summation MH Care Coordination ... · 10) MH Oral Health Survey yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no 1) County of service yes no 2) yes no 7) 8) 3) yes no 4)

TAV Service Note Review Summation MH Care Coordination ... · 10) MH Oral Health Survey yes no yes no yes no yes no yes no 1) County of service yes no 2) yes no 7) 8) 3) yes no 4)

Latin America Indirect Tax Country Guide - KPMG | BR · PIS (Employees’ Profit Participation Program) 1.65% Chile VAT 19% No Yes No Monthly No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes

Latin America Indirect Tax Country Guide - KPMG | BR · PIS (Employees’ Profit Participation Program) 1.65% Chile VAT 19% No Yes No Monthly No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes

s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com · Web viewLow Back pain No Yes No Yes No Yes Osteoporosis No Yes No Yes No Yes Fractures No Yes No Yes No Yes Other: UCLA Activity Score: Please circle

s3-us-west-2.amazonaws.com · Web viewLow Back pain No Yes No Yes No Yes Osteoporosis No Yes No Yes No Yes Fractures No Yes No Yes No Yes Other: UCLA Activity Score: Please circle

Decision Making Flow Chart - NASA Aircraft Icing … · Decision Making Flow Chart Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes

Decision Making Flow Chart - NASA Aircraft Icing … · Decision Making Flow Chart Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No No No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes

EDIC@ Specifications - medicacorp.com · Yes Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No CALIBRATE NOW? ANALYZE BLOOD? DAILY CLEANER?/ STANDBY MODE? SECOND

EDIC@ Specifications - medicacorp.com · Yes Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No CALIBRATE NOW? ANALYZE BLOOD? DAILY CLEANER?/ STANDBY MODE? SECOND

DENTAL IMAGES PC...GE reflux/heartburn Glaucoma Neurological disorders Recurrent infections Persistent swollen glands in neck Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

DENTAL IMAGES PC...GE reflux/heartburn Glaucoma Neurological disorders Recurrent infections Persistent swollen glands in neck Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No Yes No

Yes No Yes No

Yes No Yes No

Central/Intermediate Administrative Level … · Web viewRPR antigen Yes No Yes No Immersion oil Yes No Yes No Uristix Yes No Yes No Methanol Yes No Yes No ...

Central/Intermediate Administrative Level … · Web viewRPR antigen Yes No Yes No Immersion oil Yes No Yes No Uristix Yes No Yes No Methanol Yes No Yes No ...

 · 2014-12-05 · Blood Preswe Yes No Yes No Yes Yee Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes NO NO No NO No No No No No Hena Asthma AIDS or HtV+ Ulcer Thyoid Osease Kidney Disease Yes No Yes

 · 2014-12-05 · Blood Preswe Yes No Yes No Yes Yee Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes NO NO No NO No No No No No Hena Asthma AIDS or HtV+ Ulcer Thyoid Osease Kidney Disease Yes No Yes

THE PUBLIC SPHERE Active Participation Review Thumbs Up=Yes Thumbs Down=No.

THE PUBLIC SPHERE Active Participation Review Thumbs Up=Yes Thumbs Down=No.

dentistryknoxvilletn.comdentistryknoxvilletn.com/download/i/mark_dl/u/1774949/...Taking oral contraceptives? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No no No No No blo

dentistryknoxvilletn.comdentistryknoxvilletn.com/download/i/mark_dl/u/1774949/...Taking oral contraceptives? Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No No No no No No No blo