Part I Strategies to Estimate Deterrence Part II Optimization of the Criminal Justice System
description
Transcript of Part I Strategies to Estimate Deterrence Part II Optimization of the Criminal Justice System
Llad Phillips 1
Part IStrategies to Estimate Deterrence
Part IIOptimization of the Criminal
Justice System
Part IStrategies to Estimate Deterrence
Part IIOptimization of the Criminal
Justice System
Llad Phillips 2
OutlineOutline_ Human CapitalHuman Capital_ Studying for the MidtermStudying for the Midterm_ Deterrence: Deterrence:
_ Evidence proEvidence pro_ Evidence con Evidence con
Llad Phillips 3
About 60%Of 9th gradersGet a diplomasomewhere
Llad Phillips 4
The highHurdle?Algebra
Llad Phillips 5
Llad Phillips 6
Studying For the MidtermStudying For the Midterm
_ http://http://econ.ucsb.eduecon.ucsb.edu//
Llad Phillips 7
Llad Phillips 8
Llad Phillips 9
Llad Phillips 10
Llad Phillips 11
Llad Phillips 12
Part IStrategies to Estimate Deterrence
Part IStrategies to Estimate Deterrence
Llad Phillips 13
Questions About CrimeQuestions About Crime
Why is it difficult to empirically Why is it difficult to empirically demonstrate the control effect of deterrence demonstrate the control effect of deterrence on crime?on crime?
What is the empirical evidence that raises What is the empirical evidence that raises questions about deterrence?questions about deterrence?
What is the empirical evidence that supports What is the empirical evidence that supports deterrence?deterrence?
Llad Phillips 14
What is the Empirical Evidence that Supports Deterrence?What is the Empirical Evidence that Supports Deterrence? Domestic violence and police interventionDomestic violence and police intervention
Experiments with control groupsExperiments with control groups Traffic Black SpotsTraffic Black Spots
Focused enforcement effortsFocused enforcement efforts
Llad Phillips 15
Female Victims of Violent Crime
Llad Phillips 16
Female Victims of Violent CrimeFemale Victims of Violent Crime
In 1994In 1994 1 homicide for every 23,000 women (12 or older)1 homicide for every 23,000 women (12 or older)
females represented 23% of homicide victims in USfemales represented 23% of homicide victims in US 9 out of 10 female victims were murdered by males9 out of 10 female victims were murdered by males
1 rape for every 270 women1 rape for every 270 women 1 robbery for every 240 women1 robbery for every 240 women 1 assault for every 29 women 1 assault for every 29 women
Victims of Lone Offenders*Annual Average NumbersVictims of Lone Offenders*Annual Average Numbers
Female Male
Known 2,715,000 2,019,400
Intimate 1,008,000 143,400
Relative 304,500 122,000
Acquaintance 1,402,500 1,754,000
Stranger 802,300 1,933,100
* Excludes Homicide
Llad Phillips 18
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Llad Phillips 19
Llad Phillips 20
Average Annual Rate of Violent Victimizations Per 1000 FemalesAverage Annual Rate of Violent Victimizations Per 1000 FemalesFamily Income Total IntimateLess than $10,000 57 20$10,000 - $14,999 47 13$15,000 - $19,999 42 11$20,000 - $29,999 38 10$30,000 - $49,999 31 5$50,000 or more 25 5
Llad Phillips 21
Declining Trends in Intimate Violence: Homicide
Llad Phillips 22
United States Bureau of Justice Statistics
Llad Phillips 23
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Llad Phillips 24
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Llad Phillips 25
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Llad Phillips 26
Llad Phillips 27
Domestic Violence in California
http://caag.state.ca.us/
Llad Phillips 28
Domestic Violence Rates in California: 1988-19981988: 113.6 per 100.0001998: 169.9 per 100,000
Llad Phillips 29
Domestic Violence in California1988: 94% Male Arrests1998: 83.5% Male Arrests
Llad Phillips 30
Police Intervention with Experimental ControlsPolice Intervention with Experimental Controls A 911 call from a family memberA 911 call from a family member
the case is randomly assigned for “treatment”the case is randomly assigned for “treatment” A police patrol responds and visits the A police patrol responds and visits the
householdhousehold police calm down the family memberspolice calm down the family members based on the treatment randomly assigned, the based on the treatment randomly assigned, the
police carry out the sanctionspolice carry out the sanctions
Llad Phillips 31
Why is Treatment Assigned Randomly?Why is Treatment Assigned Randomly? To control for unknown causal factorsTo control for unknown causal factors
assign known numbers of cases, for example assign known numbers of cases, for example equal numbers, to each treatmentequal numbers, to each treatment
with this procedure, there should be an even with this procedure, there should be an even distribution of distribution of difficultdifficult cases in each treatment cases in each treatment groupgroup
Llad Phillips 32
911 call(characteristics of household Participants unknown)
Random Assignment
code blue code gold
patrol responds patrol responds
settles the household settles the household
verbally warn the husband take the husband to jail for the night
Llad Phillips 33
Traffic Black SpotsTraffic Black Spots
Blood AlleyBlood Alley Highway 126Highway 126
San Marcos PassSan Marcos Pass Highway 154Highway 154
Los Angeles Traffic Map
Llad Phillips 35
San Marcos Pass ExperimentSan Marcos Pass Experiment
Increase Highway PatrolsIncrease Highway Patrols Increase ArrestsIncrease Arrests
Total accidents decreaseTotal accidents decrease Injury accidents decreaseInjury accidents decrease Accidents involving drinking under the Accidents involving drinking under the
influence decreaseinfluence decrease
Llad Phillips 36
Llad Phillips 37
Evidence Against the Death Penalty Being a DeterrentEvidence Against the Death Penalty Being a Deterrent Contiguous StatesContiguous States
Maine: no death penaltyMaine: no death penalty Vermont: death penaltyVermont: death penalty New Hampshire: death penaltyNew Hampshire: death penalty
Little Variation in the Homicide RateLittle Variation in the Homicide Rate Source: Study by Thorsten Sellin in Hugo Source: Study by Thorsten Sellin in Hugo
Bedau, Bedau, The Death Penalty in AmericaThe Death Penalty in America
Llad Phillips 39
Isaac Ehrlich Study of the Death Penalty: 1933-1969Isaac Ehrlich Study of the Death Penalty: 1933-1969 Homicide Rate Per CapitaHomicide Rate Per Capita
Control VariablesControl Variables probability of arrestprobability of arrest probability of conviction given charged probability of conviction given charged Probability of execution given convictionProbability of execution given conviction
Causal VariablesCausal Variables labor force participation ratelabor force participation rate unemployment rateunemployment rate percent population aged 14-24 yearspercent population aged 14-24 years permanent incomepermanent income trendtrend
Ehrlich Results: Elasticities of Homicide with respect to ControlsEhrlich Results: Elasticities of Homicide with respect to Controls
Control Elasticity Average Valueof Control
Prob. of Arrest -1.6 0.90
Prob. of ConvictionGiven Charged
-0.5 0.43
Prob. of ExecutionGiven Convicted
-0.04 0.026
Source: Isaac Ehrlich, “The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment
Llad Phillips 41
Critique of Ehrlich by Death Penalty OpponentsCritique of Ehrlich by Death Penalty Opponents Time period used: 1933-1968Time period used: 1933-1968
period of declining probability of executionperiod of declining probability of execution Ehrlich did not include probability of Ehrlich did not include probability of
imprisonment given conviction as a control imprisonment given conviction as a control variablevariable
Causal variables included are unconvincing Causal variables included are unconvincing as causes of homicideas causes of homicide
Llad Phillips 42
U.S.
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Llad Phillips 43
U.S.
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Long Swings in the Homicide Rate in the US: 1900-1980
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice
Llad Phillips 45
United States Bureau of Justice Statisticshttp://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/
Long Swings inThe Homicide Rate
Llad Phillips 46
California Homicide Rate Per 100,000: 1952-2003
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year
Rat
e
Llad Phillips 47
Part IIOptimization of the Criminal
Justice System
Part IIOptimization of the Criminal
Justice System
Llad Phillips 48
Questions About Statistical Studies of DeterrenceQuestions About Statistical Studies of Deterrence_ Do we know enough about the factors that cause Do we know enough about the factors that cause
crime?crime?_ Can we find variables that will control for variation in Can we find variables that will control for variation in
crime generation?crime generation?
_ We have better measures for the factors that We have better measures for the factors that control crime than for the factors that cause crime.control crime than for the factors that cause crime._ Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the Unknown variation in crime generation may mask the
effects of crime control.effects of crime control.
Llad Phillips 49
Crime Generation
Crime Control
OffenseRate PerCapita
ExpectedCost ofPunishment
Schematic of the Criminal Justice System
Causes ?
(detention,deterrence)
Expenditures
Weak Link
Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors
Offenserate percapita
Expected cost(severity) of punishment
crime generation function
Crime Generation1. variation of offense rate per capita with expected cost of punishment2. Shift in the relationship with a change in causal factors
Offenserate percapita
Expected cost(severity) of punishment
crime generation function
High causal conditions
Low causal conditions
Production Function for the Criminal Justice System (CJS)1. Variation in expected costs of punishment with criminal justice system expenditure per capita
Expected costs ofpunishment
Criminal Justice System expenditures per capita
production function
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
450
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
2
2
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
2
2
3
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
1
2
3
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice
per capita expenditures on CJS
offense rate per capita
expected cost of punishment
Crime Generation
Four-Way Diagram: Crime Generation & Crime Control
per capita expenditures on CJS
ProductionFunction
square
4501
1
2
2
3
Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice
control
Causalfactors
Expenditures per Capita
Offenses Per Capita
Crime Control Technology
South Dakota North Dakota
2500 Index crimesper 100,000 people
$100
$00
Llad Phillips 67
Optimization of the Criminal Justice System (CJS)Optimization of the Criminal Justice System (CJS) Minimize damages to victims plus the costs Minimize damages to victims plus the costs
of control, subject to the crime control of control, subject to the crime control technologytechnology damages to victims per capita = loss rate per damages to victims per capita = loss rate per
offense * offense rate per capitaoffense * offense rate per capita Costs of control = per capita expenditures on CJSCosts of control = per capita expenditures on CJS Total cost = damages + expendituresTotal cost = damages + expenditures
Expenditures per Capita
Offenses Per Capita
Crime Control Technology
South Dakota North Dakota
2500 Index crimesper 100,000 people
$100
Total cost = expenditures per capita
$200
$00
Expenditures per Capita
Offenses Per Capita
Crime Control Technology
South Dakota North Dakota
2500 Index crimesper 100,000 people
$100
Total cost = expenditures per capita
Total cost = damages to victims
$200
$00
5000 Index offenses per 100,000 people = 0.05 per capita
Llad Phillips 70
Expenditures per Capita
Offenses Per Capita
Crime Control Technology
South Dakota North Dakota
0.025 Index crimesper capita
$100
Total cost = expenditures per capita
Total cost = damages to victims
0.050
Total cost = $200 per capita = damages to victims = loss rate*0.05so loss rate = $4,000 per Index Crime in South Dakota
$200
$00
Llad Phillips 17
Cost to Victims in US, 1993Offense Loss Rate Reported
OffensesDamages,Billions $
Robbery $13,000 659,757 $8.6
AutoTheft
$4,000 1,561,047 $6.2
Burglary $1,500 2,834,808 $4.3
Larceny $370 7,820,909 $2.4
Total $21.5
Source: National Institute of Justice, Victim Costs and Consequences (1996)
Source: Phillips: Lecture One
Llad Phillips 72
Expenditures per capita
Offenses Per Capita
2500 Index crimesper 100,000 people
$100
Total cost = expenditures per capita
Total cost = damages to victims
Family of Total Cost CurvesHigh
Low
Llad Phillips 73
Expenditures per Capita
Offenses Per Capita
Crime Control Technology
South Dakota North Dakota
2500 Index crimesper 100,000 people
$100
Total cost = expenditures per capita
Total cost = damages to victims
Llad Phillips 74
Application of the Economic ParadigmApplication of the Economic Paradigm Specify the feasible optionsSpecify the feasible options
the states of the world: Crime control the states of the world: Crime control technologytechnology
Value the optionsValue the options loss rate per offenseloss rate per offense
OptimizeOptimize Pick the lowest cost point on the crime control Pick the lowest cost point on the crime control
technologytechnology
Llad Phillips 76
Female Victims of Violent CrimeFemale Victims of Violent Crime