Part 4
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Transcript of Part 4
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Part 4
Temperature Rise
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Global Average Temperature Change for the Past 11,300 Years (Holocene)(Science, 8 March 2013: Vol. 339 no. 6124, pp. 1198-1201)
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Temperature Anomaly (1880-2012)Baseline: 1951-1980
AerosolsAerosolsAerosolsAerosols
(tiny particles)Aerosols
Aerosols
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Temperature Anomaly (1880-2011)Baseline: 1951-1980
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Systematic Decadal Shift to Higher Temperatures Relative to 1951-1980
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Temperature Anomalies from 1884 to 2011 Baseline = 1951-1980
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Arctic Air Temperature Anomalies from Proxies (blue) and Observations (red)
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Record High Temperatures in the U.S. are Increasing and Record Lows are Decreasing
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Lead and lag.Carbon dioxide concentrations and averages of temperature proxy records for last deglaciation, as compiled by Parrenin et al.
E J Brook, Science, 2013;339:1042-1043Published by AAAS
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Atmospheric CO2 and Global WarmingStabilization CO2
Concentration: Best Estimate (ppm)
Lower End (ppm)
Upper End (ppm)
Equilibrium Global Average Warming (°C)
280 ---- ---- 0
340 320 380 1
430 370 540 2
540 440 760 3
670 530 1060 4
840 620 1490 5
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Earth’s Heat Gain During the Past 50 years (1021 Joules*)
• Oceans (0-2 km depth) = 245 (91%)• Continents = 10.4 (4%)• Earth’s Ice = 8.1 (3%)• Atmosphere = 6.6 (2%)
*A joule is a unit of heat energy
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OCEAN HEAT CONTENT COMPARED TO TOTAL LAND, ATMOSPHERE AND ICE HEAT CONTENT.
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What Global Average Temperatures Become Critical and Catastrophic for Humans?
• THE CURRENT BEST ESTIMATE IS 2° C (3.6° F) ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS IS CRITICAL. ABOUT 4° C (7° F) IS CATASTROPHIC. THE EARTH IS NOW 0.8° C (1.4° F) ABOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS.
• WHEN THE CO2 ABUNDANCE REACHES ~430 PPM THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY WILL EVENTUALLY REACH 2° C. AT ~670 PPM IT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH A ~4° C.
• THE CURRENT ABUNDANCE (2013) IS 396 PPM AND RISING AT A RATE OF 2 PPM/YEAR, AND THIS RATE IS INCREASING. AT THE PRESENT ABUNDANCE THE TEMPERATURE WILL EVENTUALLY REACH 1.8° C.
• EVEN AT TODAY’S ABUNDANCE THE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY COULD REACH THE CRITICAL LEVEL BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. (ARMOUR AND ROE, GRL, 38, 2011; ARORA, ET AL., GRL, 38, 2011)
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Probable Temperature Increases for “Low, Moderate and High CO2 Growth” (numerical data 2011)
Increase in Global Average Temperatures
2° C (3.6° F) Critical
3° C (5.4° F)
5.5° C (10° F) Catastrophic
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WHAT IS CRITICAL AND WHAT IS CATASTROPHIC?
• CRITICAL --- serious drop in food production, serious water shortages, significant sea level rise (~1 m [3 ft]), political unrest, major drop in world economy, major animal extinctions and millions of human deaths. Third-world countries, e.g. Africa, are affected most, including large human migrations.
• CATASTROPHIC --- mass extinction event (>50% species extinction), major sea level rise, mass starvation, political and economic chaos, ~50% human deaths (>3 billion people). Probably the end of civilization as we know it today.