Part 2Part 2Model CreationModel Creation

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Log into NAPPFAST at www.nappfast.org .

Then select the Nappfast tool.

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From the ‘Action’ drop down menu you can:

Edit: Make changes to an existing model.Add: Create a new model.Rename: Change the name of an existing model.

Delete: Delete an existing model.Copy: Copy an existing model, give it a new name, and create a new model.

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The dates when the model will collect data.

Template for the model.

The variables of the model.

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Values in the legend indicating number of accumulative days where conditions will favor the development of the pest.

Values differentiating between infection and non-infection.

Name to be displayed on the maps and/or any comments about the construction of the model.

Hit ‘Save’ to make any changes to the model

One can test the model.

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NAPPFAST MAPVIEWNAPPFAST MAPVIEWImportant PointsImportant Points

What models are used to make the What models are used to make the predictive maps in NAPPFAST?predictive maps in NAPPFAST? Degree DayDegree Day Infection Infection GenericGeneric Climate matchingClimate matching

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Degree Day Model: TheoryDegree Day Model: Theory

““Phenology and development of most Phenology and development of most organisms follow a temperature dependent organisms follow a temperature dependent time scale” (Allen 1976)time scale” (Allen 1976)

Attempts to integrate temperature and Attempts to integrate temperature and time started 250 + years ago time started 250 + years ago

Development is widely believed to follow a Development is widely believed to follow a sigmoid shapesigmoid shape

Dev.

Tem

p.

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Degree Day Model: Degree Day Model: TheoryTheory

Organisms have base developmental Organisms have base developmental temperature- temperature- minimum temperature below minimum temperature below which no development occurswhich no development occurs

Organisms have set number of units to Organisms have set number of units to complete development - physiological time: complete development - physiological time: measured in developmental units (DU) or measured in developmental units (DU) or degree days (DD) degree days (DD)

Parameters established from lab or field Parameters established from lab or field studiesstudies

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Degree Day ModelDegree Day Model

Example: Light Brown Apple Moth Example: Light Brown Apple Moth

base temperature base temperature 7.5 C7.5 C

requires ~requires ~640 DD640 DD to complete development to complete development

(egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg)(egg, larvae, pupae, adult to egg)

Degree days are typically calculated from Degree days are typically calculated from average of high and low temperature for a 24 average of high and low temperature for a 24 hour period above the base temperaturehour period above the base temperature

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Degree Day ModelDegree Day Model

Light Brown Apple MothLight Brown Apple Moth: : Base temperature Base temperature 7.5 C7.5 C

640 DD640 DD for generation development for generation development

If average daily temp was If average daily temp was 11C: 3.5 DD (11-7.5)11C: 3.5 DD (11-7.5) are are accumulated and it would take accumulated and it would take 182182 days at that days at that temperature to complete developmenttemperature to complete development

If average daily temp was If average daily temp was 20C: 12.5 DD (20-7.5)20C: 12.5 DD (20-7.5) are are accumulated and it would take accumulated and it would take 51.251.2 days at that days at that temperature to complete developmenttemperature to complete development

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P. japonica P. japonica general general informationinformation

Univoltine- one generation per yearUnivoltine- one generation per year Overwinters typically as a third instar Overwinters typically as a third instar

larvaelarvae

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Insect Development Insect Development DatabaseDatabase

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Model ParametersModel Parameters

Japanese BeetleJapanese Beetle

      StageStageDD in DD in

stagestageFirst First

entryentrysecond second

entryentry

Overwintering Overwintering stagestage 3rd instar3rd instar 400400 00 400400

PupaePupae 124124 401401 525525

Low 10 CLow 10 C AdultAdult 117117 526526 643643

Upper 34 Upper 34 CC egg egg 140140 644644 784784

first instarfirst instar 222222 785785 10071007

Second Second instarinstar 419419 10081008 14271427

third instarthird instar 720720 14281428

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Graphing toolsGraphing tools

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Disease Infection ModelDisease Infection Model

Plant pathologist Plant pathologist describe describe interactions interactions between pathogen, between pathogen, host and host and environmental environmental conditions as the conditions as the disease triangle.disease triangle.

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Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments

Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture

Disease infection modelDisease infection model

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Disease Infection ParametersDisease Infection Parameters

TTminmin = Min. temperature for infection, = Min. temperature for infection, ooC,C,

TTmaxmax = Max. temperature for infection, = Max. temperature for infection, ooC,C,

TTopt opt = Opt. temperature for infection, = Opt. temperature for infection, ooC,C,

WWmin min = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h

Parameters established in laboratory studiesParameters established in laboratory studies

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Temperature response functionTemperature response function

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Tem

pera

ture

Res

pons

e

Temperature C

High ToptLow Topt

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Temperature moisture response Temperature moisture response functionfunction

Low Topt

High Wmin

High Topt

Low Wmin

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Sudden Oak Death, Sudden Oak Death, Phytophthora ramorumPhytophthora ramorum

Fungal disease in Fungal disease in cool wet weathercool wet weather..

Currently in Currently in Western US: Western US: California and California and OregonOregon

Source Ventana Wilderness Society

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Model ParametersModel Parameters

Temperature requirement Temperature requirement

3-28 C, 20 C optimum (Werres, 2001; 3-28 C, 20 C optimum (Werres, 2001; Orlikowski, 2002)Orlikowski, 2002)..

Moisture requirement Moisture requirement

12 hours for zoospore infection 12 hours for zoospore infection (Huberli,2003)(Huberli,2003)

Model description Model description

Unpublished infection model uses Unpublished infection model uses Wang et al. (1998 ) temperature response Wang et al. (1998 ) temperature response function scaled to a wetness duration function scaled to a wetness duration requirementrequirement..

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Multi-function ModelMulti-function Model

Allows for construction of many different Allows for construction of many different models using simple logical and models using simple logical and mathematical equations: mathematical equations:

(X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), (X>A, X and Y, X or Y, X and (Y or Z), X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)X≥A and X≤B, A* exp(B * X), etc.)

Some examples used to date are: Some examples used to date are: temperature exclusions (high and or low temperature exclusions (high and or low lethal temperatures), frost free days, and lethal temperatures), frost free days, and emergence dates emergence dates