Your design skills can save lives:

Can Parsons and the Red Cross help each other?

Pablo Suarez, Ph.D.

Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre& Boston University

Nov 3, 2009 Parsons School of Design

Evidence of change: Andean glacier (Yanamarey, Perú)

1987

19972005

1987

Unusual climate anomalies and events (2005)

Remarkable progress (collect, store, process, disseminate)

Need to adapt

What about marginal communities?

Challenges of New Climatic Predictions

A. Patt, with data from IRI

Mme. Khin Cho Cho Shein vs Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar)

Photo: A. Patt

Reaching out: "Parachuting in" with new info?

Climate change: the basics

• Greenhouse effect

• Global warming

• Sea Level rise

• Changes in winds & currents

• More extreme events

• “Synergies” with other problems

• Linkages across sectors

Apocalypsis?

Climate Change is a Humanitarian Problem

How will the Red Cross be affected?

More funding availableGEF, EU (& eventually US)

Focus on community level

Focus on NGOs

More workMore, stronger, new disasters

More poverty & injustice

Solutions may become problems

Options

MitigationAvoiding changes in atmosphere so the climate doesn’t get worse. (CC causes - atmospheric chemistry)

AdaptationGetting ready for a climate that will continue to get worse. (CC consequences - climate risks)

11

Participatory Workshops for Adaptation

Intro: “learn & share”

Flood impacts?

What during flood?

Causes?

Info: predictability

What can be done differently?

Exposure

Vulnerability

Adaptive Capacity

Community-level preparedness for a changing climate Planning access to flood shelters in Bangladesh

Community-level preparedness for a changing climate Water transport in southern Africa

Pablo’s flights - sample 12 months

Apr 29, 2008 Boston – Washington IAD

Apr 30 Washington IAD – Boston

May 1 Boston – Louisville KY

May 4 Louisville KY – Boston

Jun 1 Boston – Miami

Miami – Panama

Jun 4 Panama – Miami

Miami – Buenos Aires

Jun 13 Buenos Aires – Dallas

Jun 14 Dallas – Washington IAD

Washington IAD – Rome

Jun 15 Rome – Addis Ababa

Jun 23 Addis Ababa – Entebbe

Jun 25 Entebbe - Addis Ababa

Jun 27 Addis Ababa – Lilongwe

Jul 5 Lilongwe - Addis Ababa

Addis Ababa – Rome

Jul 6 Rome – Washington IAD

Washington IAD – Boston

Jul 16 Boston – Washington IAD

Jul 18 Washington BWI – NY LGA

New York LGA – Boston

Jul 22 Boston – IAD

IAD – Boston

Sep 9 Boston – Miami

Miami – San Salvador

Sep 15 San Salvador – Miami

Miami – New York JFK

Sep 26 Boston – Dallas

Dallas - Tokyo NRT

Sep 28 Tokyo HND – Hiroshima

Oct 4 Hiroshima – Tokyo HND

Tokyo NRT – LosAngeles

LosAngeles – Boston

Oct 6 Boston – London LHR

Oct 7 London LHR – Nairobi

Nairobi – Mombasa

Oct 11 Mombasa – Nairobi

Nairobi – Dakar

Oct 15 Dakar – Paris CDG

Oct 16 Paris CDG – London City

Oct 19 London LHR – Paris CDG

Paris CDG – Johannesburg

Oct 22 Johannesburg – Amsterdam

Oct 23 Amsterdam – Vienna

Oct 27 Vienna – Zurich

Zurich – Delhi

Nov 4 Delhi – London LHR

London LHR – Boston

Nov 11 New York JFK – Miami

Miami – Mexico

Nov 14 San Luis Potosí – Mexico

Mexico – Dallas

Dallas – Boston

Nov 30 Boston – London LHR

Dec 1 London LHR – Warsaw

Dec 9 Poznan – Warsaw

Warsaw – London LHR

London– New York JF

New York – Buenos Aires

Dec 22 BuenosAires - NewYork JFK

Dec 23 New York JFK – Boston

Feb 5, 2009 Boston – Washington DCA

Feb 7 Washington IAD – Atlanta

Atlanta – FortLauderdale

Feb 11 FortLauderdale - Atlanta

Feb 12 Atlanta – Boston

Feb 20 Boston – London LHR

Feb 21 London LHR – Amsterdam

Feb 26 Amsterdam – Addis Ababa

Mar 6 Addis Ababa – Bahir Dar

Mar 8 Bahir Dar– Addis Ababa

Mar 10 Addis Ababa - Amsterdam

Mar 11 Amsterdam – Copenhagen

Mar 13 Copenhagen-Vienna

Mar 17 Vienna-Istambul

Mar 25 Istambul – London LHR

London LHR – Chicago

Chicago - Boston

Apr 2 Boston – Munich

Apr 3 Munich – Cologne

Apr 5 Cologne – Munich

Munich – Boston

Apr 11 Boston – Amsterdam

Apr 17 Amsterdam - Boston

Apr 18 Hartford – Cincinnati

Cincinnati – Denver

Apr 22 Denver – Atlanta

Atlanta – Hartford

H E L P ! ! ! !

! ! !

Columbia U: Masters in Climate & Society

Internship example #1: Emergency appeal in West Africa

Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)

Movie time!

~10 Red Cross colleagues from East Africa

Internship example #2: Malawi farmers become filmmakers

Movie time!

MDG indicators MW US

1. GDP per capita $ 667 $41,890

2. Adult illiteracy rate 36% 1%

4. Child mortality

(per 1,000 live births)

120 7

5. Maternal mortality ratio

(per 100,000 births)

1,100 13

6. People living with HIV

(15-49 years old)

11.9% 0.6%

8. Internet users (2005) 0.4% 70%

Our new ducks float during floods. Chickens used to drown

and die

Communicating Climate Change in ArgentinaAdvocacy through Urban Art

Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity:Disaster management explorations via games

Concrete Parsons-RedCross Collaboration Ideas

1. Game to help convert early warning into early actionTomorrow (Wed) 9am: Game Jam info session

Nov 23-25: workshop in Senegal

2. Improving web-based forecast maproom

3. Mapping info about risk assessments (PIIM)

4. SMS-based disaster management in Uganda

5. Global reports on urbanization and climate: beyond print?IFRC

UN HABITAT

Traveling exhibit on gender & climate

6. Simple technological solutions

7. Awareness campaigns (Bali fan, etc)

Last slide: Things to remember

1. The climate is changingWe know the change will continue

We have to prepare for a changing climate

The Red Cross needs help from folks like you

2. What to do?Internships Masters theses Major research projects

Class projects Doctoral dissertations Other?

3. What to expect?No $$

No predictability

4. More info?

www.climatecentre.org

Interested? Send a 1-page CV and 1-page letter of interest at ratimamm@newschool.edu

Game Jam Info Session:

Parsons to help the Red Cross turn information into decisions

Nigel Snoad & Pablo Suarez Parsons School of DesignNov 4, 2009

1. From forecasts to disaster management: why games?

2. Vision for Parsons-RedCross game collaboration

3. Senegal, Nov 23-25

4. Next steps

Communicating Climate Risks and Decision Capacity:Disaster management explorations via games

SCIENTISTS

What is their job? Predictions (information)

What matters? Predictable events (extreme rain, temp, etc)

What timeline matters?

Time between prediction and actual event

What “chances” matter?

Probability of event materializing

The gap between forecasters and humanitarian workers

RED CROSS STAFF

Decisions (action)

Avoidable losses (death, hunger, etc)

Time needed to implement decisions

Risk of losses so high as to deserve action

Given what we know as of May 15 2008, we can say that, for the period June-August 2008 in the areas of West Africa highlighted in the map, the probability of seeing precipitation that would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to between 40% and 50%

Scenario: a fax with this forecast arrives to the Red Cross office

“For the period June 24-30, Southern and Central Senegal are likely to

receive above normal rains. The probability of seeing precipitation that

would rank in the top 15% of the historical record is now enhanced to

above 50%.”

Group exercise (last July, Senegal)

Task: What risk management decisions could this forecast trigger?

a) How much time is needed from decision to action?

b) Is the threat serious enough to trigger this action? Yes or no?

What does it depend on?

c) What if the forecast doesn’t materialize?

Community workshop to design flood contingency plan

Activation of community early warning procedures

Preparation of shelters/camps

Refreshment training of Red Cross volunteers (search & rescue, first aid, etc)

Evacuation of people at risk

Pre-disaster assessment of capacity to respond to imminent crisis

Activation and implementation of existing contingency plan

In-country procurement of relief supplies to replenish minimum stocks

Procurement of relief supplies from abroad to respond to catastrophic event

Pre-positioning of relief supplies, logistics and human resource assets

Communications (both telecommunications and media)

Other?

Examples of disaster management options

Your design skills can save lives:

Can Parsons help climate scientists help the Red Cross?

Pablo Suarez, Ph.D.

Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre& Boston University

A. Patt, with data from IRI

Columbia U: Masters in Climate & Society

Sample forecasting maps from scientists

Forecast Maproom (from Columbia U, for Red Cross)

Movie time!

~10 Red Cross colleagues from East Africa

Existing web-based tool that we can work on