Paris agreement: Implications for the global and EU energy ... · The start of a new energy era?...
Transcript of Paris agreement: Implications for the global and EU energy ... · The start of a new energy era?...
© OECD/IEA 2015
Paris agreement: Implications for the global and EU energy sector
Marco BaroniTallinn, 12 January 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
The start of a new energy era?
Energy sector turns green?
Paris agreement: pledges of 180+ countries account for over 90% of energy-related emissions
Energy accounts for at least 2/3 of greenhouse gas emissions
Renewables capacity additions at a record-high of 130 GW in 2014
Fossil-fuel subsidy reform, led by India & Indonesia, reduces the global subsidy bill below $500 billion in 2014
Carbon pricing covers 13% of global emissions, but China intention of trading system in 2017 will triple this share
Multiple signs of change, but are they moving the energy system in the right direction?
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Energy emissions stall but economic engine keeps running
Global energy-related CO2 emissions
For the first time, energy-related CO2 emissions stalleddespite the global economy expanding by 3%
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Gt
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Dissolution ofSoviet Union
Global economic downturn
2014
© OECD/IEA 2015 The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on maps included in this publication do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the IEA.
Pledges submitted
…the global coverage of climate pledges is impressive
Pledges from countries that account for 95% of global energy-related GHG emissions; their full implementation would be consistent with a temperature rise of 2.7 °C
OECD AsiaOceania
2.2 Gt
Russia and Caspian
2.0 Gt
Europe
3.8 Gt
North America
6.1 Gt
South America
1.2 Gt
Africa
1.1 Gt
Middle East
2.0 Gt
1.7 Gt
Other AsiaIndia
1.9 Gt
China
8.6 Gt
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Mtoe
-300
0
300
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1 200
Demand growth in Asia – the sequel
By 2040, India’s energy demand closes in on that of the United States, even though demand per capita remains 40% below the world average
EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan LatinAmerica
MiddleEast
SoutheastAsia
Africa China India
Change in energy demand in selected regions, 2014-2040
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Emissions burden moves over time
Cumulative energy-related CO2 emissions by region
Past emissions are important, although the source of emissions shifts with changes in the global economy
2015-2040
1890-2014
100
200
300
400
500
United
States
European China
Union
Russia Japan India Africa
Gt
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Energydemand
GDP
A new chapter in China’s growth story
Along with energy efficiency, structural shifts in China’s economy favouringexpansion of services, mean less energy is required to generate economic growth
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ener
gy d
eman
d (
Mto
e)
20
40
60
GD
P (
trill
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do
llars
,PP
P)
Energydemand
GDP
Total primary energy demand & GDP in ChinaEnergy demand in China
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
Coal
Oil
Gas
Nuclear
Renewables
Energydemand
GDP
3 000
6 000
9 000
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Ener
gy d
eman
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Mto
e)
20
40
60
GD
P (
trill
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do
llars
,PP
P)
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India moving to the centreof the world energy stage
Change in demand for selected fuels, 2014-2040
New infrastructure, an expanding middle class & 600 million new electricity consumers mean a large rise in the energy required to fuel India’s development
Solar PV
0
500
1 000
1 500(TWh)
Oil
-16
-8
0
8
16
24(mb/d)
Coal
-1 000
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500(Mtce)
China
India
United States
European UnionAfrica
Middle EastJapan
India
China
Africa
Middle East
Southeast Asia
UnitedStates
Japan
European Union
India
SoutheastAsia
Africa
European Union
United States
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Efficiency measures on the rise, but significant potential still exists
Share of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption
Energy efficiency policies are introduced in more countries and sectors;they continue to slow demand growth but more can be done
10%
20%
30%
40%
2005 2014 2040
Industry Steam boilers
Process heat
Motors
Buildings Heating/Cooling
Lighting/Appliances
Transport Cars
Trucks
Ships
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Power is leading the transformationof the energy system
Global electricity generation by source
Driven by continued policy support, renewables account for half of additional global generation, overtaking coal around 2030 to become the largest power source
3 000 12 000 15 000
TWh
Changeto 2040
2014Renewables
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
Oil
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Otherrenewables
Of which:
6 000 9 000
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Climate pledges decouple power sector emissions from electricity demand
World electricity generation
The share of low-carbon power generation grows to almost 45% in 2030 so that power emissions remain flat, while electricity demand grows by more than 40%
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Gen
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(th
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san
d T
Wh
)
and related CO2 emissions
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Emis
sio
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(Gt)
5
10
15
20
CO2 emissions
Electricity generation
Electricity generation
CO2 emissions
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Conclusions
Low prices bring gains to consumers, but can also sow the seeds of future risks to energy security: no room for complacency
India’s energy needs are huge: there is a strong shared interest to support India’s push for clean & efficient technologies
China’s transition to a more diversified & much less energy-intensive model for growth re-shapes energy markets
The energy transition is underway, but needs continued strong signal from governments to attract necessary investment
With looming energy security & environmental challenges, international cooperation on energy has never been more vital
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/IEA
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