Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

27
www.awilcolng.no - 1 - Jon Skule Storheill Chief Executive Officer Pareto Conference 12 September 2012

Transcript of Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

Page 1: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 1 -

Jon Skule Storheill Chief Executive Officer

Pareto

Conference

12 September 2012

Page 2: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 2 -

Disclaimer This presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be

communicated («relevant persons»). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on these presentations or any

of its contents. Information in the following presentations relating to price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold

in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance of such investments. This

presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to

underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Awilco LNG ASA or any affiliated company thereof. The release,

publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such

jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such

restrictions.

This presentation may include certain forward-looking statements, estimates, predictions, influences and projections with respect

to anticipated future performance and as to the market for products or services which may reflect various assumptions made by

the management of the Company. These assumptions may or may not prove to be correct and no representation is made as to the

accuracy of such statements, estimates, projections, predictions and influences. These statements and forecasts involve risk and

uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. The information and opinions

contained in this presentation are subject to change without notice and the Company assumes no responsibility or obligation to

update publicly or review any of the forward-looking statements contained herein.

Page 3: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 3 -

Agenda 12/09

1. Company overview

2. Market update

3. Summary

Page 4: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 4 -

Overview Awilco LNG

Awilco LNG − Established Feb 2011 − Owner of three 2nd generation LNG carriers, delivered during 1st and 2nd quarter 2011 − Two newbuildings on order for delivery August and November 2013.

Awilco LNG is today a pure play transportation provider

− Conversion of existing 2nd generation vessels is an opportunity

Awilco LNG has a lean but experienced organization − Technical Management of existing vessels is outsourced − Establishing in-house technical management in co-operation with Awilco AS

Awilco LNG has been able to overcome the high barriers of entry in LNG shipping with clients such as:

- Petrobras - Kogas - North West Shelf

- Mitsui - Ibedrola - Gunvor /Clarelake

- LNG Japan - Excelerate - Mitsubishi

Awilco LNG financials − Strong balance sheet − No long-term debt on the existing vessels − All pre-delivery installments on newbuildings are paid and no need for financing before delivery of newbuildings

Page 5: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 5 -

Awilco LNG - Org Chart

Newbuilding WMS

Technical WMS

V. Ships

Ian Walker SVP Chartering

Jan Espen Andersen

Head of operation

Accounting

AWM

Snorre Krogstad CFO

Jon Skule Storheill

CEO

Øyvind Ryssdal Group Controller

Lindegull Nestegard PA/Office Manager

Yngve Breivik Operations

manager

Gustav Schrøder Technical

superintendent

Page 6: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 6 -

In-house technical management • Awilco LNG in process of building in-house technical management company in cooperation with Awilco AS

− Better control of crewing

− Better knowledge of the vessels

− Preferred by charterers

• Awilco AS has solid track record from ship management since 1939 and is currently technical managers for;

− Awilco Shipping

− Awilco Drilling

− Awilco LNG (Supervisory and NB)

• Awilco AS has extensive project management experience through various newbuilding and conversion

projects within both shipping and offshore

Page 7: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 7 -

Our fleet of 2nd generation vessels

WilGas WilPower WilEnergy

Built: 1984

Yard: Nagasaki

Capacity: 125,631

Manager: V.Ships LNG

Flag: NIS

Main Engine: Steam Turbine

Cap: 1

Built: 1983

Yard: Kawasaki

Capacity: 125,660

Manager: V.Ships LNG

Flag: MI

Main Engine: Steam Turbine

Cap: 1

Built: 1983

Yard: Nagasaki

Capacity: 125,556

Manager: V.Ships LNG

Flag: MI

Main Engine: Steam Turbine

Cap: 1

Page 8: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 8 -

Order of two newbuildings

Yard: Daewoo Shipbuilding

156,000 cbm

Delivery end August and mid November 2013

ICE classed 1C

Winterized (ship no 2)

Norwegian Flag (intention)

Class DNV

Various upgrades – in total value region MUSD 7-8

Page 9: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 9 -

Contract overview

WilPower Available from 20th June 2012

WilEnergy Available from February 2013

Newbuilding No.1 Available from August 2013

Newbuilding No.2 Available from November 2013

WilGas Available from November 2014

2012 2013

WilPower DD

WilEnergy DD

WilGas

Newbuilding

no 1 Construction

Newbuilding

no 2 Construction

Available

Available

Available

Page 10: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 10 -

USD million First half

2012 2011

Freight income 30.2 30.7

Voyage related expenses (3.5) (10.0)

Net freight income 26.6 20.7

Operating expenses (9.6) (12.0)

Administration expenses (2.2) (4.6)

EBITDA 14.9 4.1

Depreciation (3.8) (3.9)

Impairment parts/equip. (1.4) -

Net Finance 0.2 (0.8)

Profit/loss before tax 9.8 (0.6)

Tax (0.1) (2.6)

Profit/loss 9.7 (3.3)

USD million 30.06.12 31.03.12 31.12.11

Vessels 76.8 71.3 69.9

Vessels under construction 119.9 99.2 79.2

Total non-current assets 196.8 170.7 149.2

Cash 3.6 20.0 28.4

Total current assets 8.5 23.6 33.0

Total assets 205.4 194.2 182.2

Total equity 181.3 183.5 171.6

Non-current liabilities 1.6 - 1.9

Short-term interest bearing debt 10.4 - -

Total current liabilities 22.4 10.8 8.7

Total equity and liabilities 205.4 194.2 182.2

P&L Balance

Finance

• Two D.D during 1st half 2012 – next DD Q4 2013

• EBITDA MUSD 14.9

• No long term debt

• MUSD 20 Credit Facility – MUSD 10.2 utilized

Page 11: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 11 -

Agenda 12/09

1. Company overview

2. Market update

3. Summary

Page 12: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 12 -

Market update

Fundamentals for LNG shipping are appealing

Gas is clean Gas is abundantly available Gas is cheap

Page 13: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 13 -

Rate development

• Rates firmed during Q2 – and rates obtained were

close to last winter levels

• Slowing activity and softer rates during the summer

months due to:

− High inventory and lower energy demand in Japan

− Angola production start-up delayed

− Less arbitrage

Source: Fearnley LNG

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51

LNG Spot Rate Seasonality 2005-2012Basis weekly rate as % annual average

2010 2011 2012 Avg '05-11

• Historically rates are sliding through spring, turning

upwards from July, autumn and winter typically strong

• Seasonal low impacted at a later stage

• When will the market rebound ?

Page 14: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 14 -

Source: Pareto Securities

130 132 139 153 158 165 178 182 187 203241 237

11 1116 20 24

34 45 4040

5695

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e

Long term contracts Spot and short term trade (incl. contracts < 4 yrs)

Global LNG trade (bcm)

• Changes in gas demand and shale gas

production has lead to increased diversion

of cargoes

• Ramp-up leads to increased volumes

• An increasing number of regas terminals

leads to a more liquid market

• In 2000 short term contracts accounted for

only 5% of the volumes, in 2011 this had

risen to 29%

Growing short term market

Global LNG Trade (bcm)

Page 15: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 15 -

LNG Trade Flow Developments Regional market

- Only a handful of players

- ’the LNG Club’ – mainly big oil companies and utilites

Global market

– banks, utilities, trading

houses, projects, IOCs,

power-companies, etc…

Source: Fearnley LNG

Page 16: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 16 -

• 1st half 2012 import up 19%

• Nuclear reactors a big uncertainty with 2 out of 54 reactors running

Japan import and power demand

Source: Marubeni,, Fearnley LNG

0

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

7 000

8 000

9 000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tota

l qu

anti

ty o

f Im

po

rt (

in M

T)

Month

LNG Import into Japan

2012

2011

2010

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Jan.

07

Jul.0

7

Jan.

08

Jul.0

8

Jan.

09

Jul.0

9

Jan.

10

Jul.1

0

Jan.

11

Jul.1

1

Jan.

12

Jul.1

2

Nuclear plant utilization

Page 17: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 17 -

• Capacity expected to increase from ~ 16 mtpa in

2011 to ~46 mtpa in 2015, of which > 85%

already is under construction

• Import capacity could reach more than 90 mtpa

by 2020

• 1st half 2012 imports up 29%

• 15% of Japan - but growing steadily

• 5 year Chinese plan: increase the share of gas in total

energy demand from 4% in 2010 to 8% in 2015 and

10% in 2020

China LNG import

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Tota

l qu

anti

ty o

f Im

po

rt (

in M

T)

Month

LNG Import into China

2012

2011

2010 15,8

45,8

90,4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2011 2015E 2020 Total proposed

MTP

A

China LNG import Capacity

Source: Marubeni, Pareto

Page 18: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 18 -

India – the new LNG player?

• India has the 2nd largest population but is only the fifth largest energy consumer in the world

• Indian energy consumption is growing by 6.8% vs. global consumption growth of 2.6%

• Demand for natural gas far exceeding the domestic supply, LNG import increased by 46% in 2011

• Existing LNG import capacity is about 14 mtpa – currently growing and estimated to reach 50 mtpa by 2017

14 18

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2011 2012E 2015E 2017E

MTP

A

India LNG import Capacity

Source: Pareto, Dow Jones

Page 19: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 19 -

North America LNG export

• Huge reserves and low prices - large potential

• A total of 17 projects with a total of ~ 160 mtpa combined identified

• Increased vessel demand due to longer voyages

• Sabine Pass project alone could require ~30 vessels

Source: Fearnley LNG, Cheniere

Project name MTPA Owners DOE: non-FTA

approved

Sabine Pass Liquefication 18,0 Cheniere Energy Approved

Kitimat (Canada) 10,0 Apache, EOG, Encana Approved

Prince Rupert (Canada) 5,0 BG, Quensland gas 2013

Freeport LNG Expansion 13,2 Smith,Conoco, Dow, Osaka GasUnder DOE review

Lake Charles Exports 15,0 BG, Southern Union Under DOE review

Carib Energy (USA) 0,3 Carib Energy Under DOE review

Dominion Cove Point LNG 7,8 Dominion Resources Under DOE review

Jordan Cove Energy Project 6,0 Fort Chicago, Energy Pojects Under DOE review

Cameron LNG 12,0 Sempra, ENI Under DOE review

LNG Development Company 9,4 Oregon LNG Under DOE review

Gulf Coast LNG Export 21,0 Michael S. Smith N/A

Cambridge Energy 2,0 Cambridge Energy LLC N/A

Gulf LNG Liquefication Company 11,5 El Paso Corp N/A

SB Power Solutions 0,5 Seaboard Corp N/A

Southern LNG Company 3,7 Oregon Corp N/A

Excelerate Liquefacation Solutions 10,3 Excelerate Energy N/A

Golden Pass Products 15,6 ExxonMobile, Qatar N/A

17 161,3

Page 20: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 20 -

LNG export

• Total FID taken 91 mtpa

− North America 8.6 mtpa

• Total proposed FID 135 mtpa

− North America 67 mtpa

Country Project name Main Partners FID Startup MPTA

Angola Angola LNG Chevron,BP, Eni, Total, Sonangol Taken 2012 5,2

Australia Pluto LNG Woodside, Tokyo Gas, Kanseai Electric Taken 2012 4,8

Algeria Gassi Touil Sonatrach Taken 2013 4,7

Papua New Guinea PNG LNG ExxonMobil, OilSearch, Santos, NPCP Taken 2014 6,6

Australia Gladstone LNG Santos, Petronas, Total, KOGAS Taken 2015 7,8

Australia Gorgon LNG Chevron, Shell, Exxon, Mobile Taken 2015 15

Australia Queensland Curtis LNG BG, Queensland Gas Taken 2015 8,5

Australia Australia Pacific LNG Origin, ConocaoPhilips, SinoPec Taken 2015 8,6

Australia Ichtys Field NW Australia INPEX,Total Taken 2015 8,4

Australia Prelude LNG Shell Taken 2015 3,5

USA Sabine Pass T-2 Chenniere Taken 2015 8,6

Australia Wheatstone LNG Chevron, Shell 2012 2016 8,8

Total taken 91

Papua New Guinea Liquid Niguini Interoil, Pacific LNG, Liquid Niguini, Flex 2012 2015 2

Canada Kitimat Apache, EOG, Encana 2012 2016 10

Indonesia Tangguh (expansion) BP Migas 2012 2018 3,8

USA Freeport T1-2 Freeport LNG, Macquaire 2012 2016 8,8

Australia Quensland Curtis BG, Quensland gas 2013 2017 4,25

Nigeria Brass LNG NNPC, ENI , ConcocoPhilips, Total 2012 2017 10

Australia Browse LNG Woodside, BP , BHP , Billiton, Chevron, Shell 2013 2017 8

Canada Prince Rupert BG, Quensland gas 2013 2017 5

USA Freeport T3-4 Exxon, Mobile , NNPC, Shell, Total, Eni 2013 2017 8,8

USA Sabine Pass T-3-4 Chenniere 2013 2017 8,6

USA Lavaca Bay Excelerate Energy LLC 2013 2017 3

USA Cameron LNG Sempra 2013 2016 12

USA Golden Pass Exxon, Qatar Petroleum 2013 2017 15,6

Nigeria NLNG (7 train expansion) ExxonMobil, NNPC, Shell, Total, ENI 2013 2017 4,7

Russia Yamal LNG Novatek, Total 2013 2017 15

Russia Sthockman LNG Gazproim, Total, Statoil 2013 2017 15

Total expected FID 2012- 2013 135

Source: Fearnley LNG

Page 21: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 21 -

• If all projects realized ~210 vessels required in order to meet incremental volume.

• If projects under construction and 50% of new projects proposed (non FID) are concluded by 2017 - more than 150

vessels needed

Source: Fearnley LNG

Liquefaction growth 2012-2017

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

MTPA Expected increase in LNG production

(not including ramp-up)

FID taken FID expected 2013

Page 22: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 22 -

LNG Newbuilding overview 2012 De live rySize (CBM)Hull Yard Owner

1 Oct-12 147 100 Hudong Zhonghua China LNG Shpg.

2013 De live rySize (CBM)Hull Builder Owner

1 Feb-13 155 000 1946 Samsung HI GasLog

2 Apr-13 155 000 1947 Samsung HI GasLog

3 Jul-13 155 000 2016 Samsung HI GasLog

4 Jul-13 159 760 2288 DSME MaranGas

5 Aug-13 155 900 2289 DSME Awilco LNG

6 Sep-13 160 000 2021 Samsung HI Golar LNG

8 Oct.13 160 000 2026 Samsung HI Golar LNG

9 Oct-13 160 000 2045 Samsung HI Thenamaris

10 Oct-13 155 000 Hyundai Heavy Dynagas

11 Oct-13 155 000 2017 Samsung HI GasLog

12 Oct-13 155 000 2556 Hyundai Heavy Dynagas

13 Oct-13 159 760 2295 DSME MaranGas

14 Oct-13 177 000 1665 Kawasaki ShipbuildingNYK

16 Nov-13 155 900 2290 DSME Awilco LNG

15 Nov-13 160 000 2022 Samsung HI Golar LNG

17 Dec-13 160 000 2023 Samsung HI Golar LNG

18 Dec-13 155 000 2041 Samsung HI GasLog

19 Dec-13 170 200 1910 STX O&S Sovcomflot

21 Dec-13 155 000 2557 Hyundai Heavy Dynagas

22 Dec-13 161 870 s624 Hyundai Heavy S MaranGas

Fixed Available

• Total orderbook – 73 LNG carriers (excluding FSRU), of which at least 43 are committed

• Orderbook will grow from 2015 onwards, annual yard capacity about 50 vessels/year

• Financing is challenging and will limit the orderbook

• Awiclo LNG has the first newbuilding to be delivered which is not committed to a contract

Source: Fearnley LNG

12 12 17

1 1

8 14

8

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Fleet Newbuildings

No contract Committed Total fleet

LNG Fleet (> 100 000 cbm)

Page 23: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 23 -

Agenda 12/09

1. Company overview

2. Market update

3. Summary

Page 24: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 24 -

Summary – Market Market • Short term - activity is expected to increase as;

− Less planed maintenance

− Angola starts production

− LNG players positioning themselves for the winter marked

• Long term fundamentals - remains strong as;

− LNG demand expected to continue to grow

− Liquefaction capacity is set for growth

- 91 mtpa under construction

- 67 mtpa potential FID during 2012 – 2013, excluding North America

- 160 mtpa potential from North America

• Shipping:

- Limited orderbook until end 2014

- Trading distances is expected to continue to increase

Page 25: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 25 -

Awilco LNG

• WilPower available for contract

• Have the first, as well as one of the earliest newbuildings to be delivered without contract in a firm market

• Strong balance sheet, all pre-delivery installments on newbuildings paid, no need for financing of

newbuildings prior to delivery

Well positioned going forward

Summary – Awilco LNG

Page 26: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 26 -

Q & A

Experienced

management team

2nd gen. fleet of

3 LNG carriers

2 newbuildings

world class yard

Strong balance sheet

Solid owners Tier 1 customers

Opportunistic strategy

Page 27: Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG

www.awilcolng.no - 27 -

Jon Skule Storheill

Chief Executive Officer

Mobile: +47-9134 4356

E-mail: [email protected]

Snorre Schie Krogstad

Chief Financial Officer

Mobile: +47-9085 8393

E-mail: [email protected]