Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG
Transcript of Pareto Conference - Awilco LNG
www.awilcolng.no - 1 -
Jon Skule Storheill Chief Executive Officer
Pareto
Conference
12 September 2012
www.awilcolng.no - 2 -
Disclaimer This presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such presentation may lawfully be
communicated («relevant persons»). Any person who is not a relevant person should not act or rely on these presentations or any
of its contents. Information in the following presentations relating to price at which relevant investments have been bought or sold
in the past or the yield on such investments cannot be relied upon as a guide to future performance of such investments. This
presentation does not constitute an offering of securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to
underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Awilco LNG ASA or any affiliated company thereof. The release,
publication or distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and therefore persons in such
jurisdictions into which this presentation is released, published or distributed should inform themselves about, and observe, such
restrictions.
This presentation may include certain forward-looking statements, estimates, predictions, influences and projections with respect
to anticipated future performance and as to the market for products or services which may reflect various assumptions made by
the management of the Company. These assumptions may or may not prove to be correct and no representation is made as to the
accuracy of such statements, estimates, projections, predictions and influences. These statements and forecasts involve risk and
uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. The information and opinions
contained in this presentation are subject to change without notice and the Company assumes no responsibility or obligation to
update publicly or review any of the forward-looking statements contained herein.
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Agenda 12/09
1. Company overview
2. Market update
3. Summary
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Overview Awilco LNG
Awilco LNG − Established Feb 2011 − Owner of three 2nd generation LNG carriers, delivered during 1st and 2nd quarter 2011 − Two newbuildings on order for delivery August and November 2013.
Awilco LNG is today a pure play transportation provider
− Conversion of existing 2nd generation vessels is an opportunity
Awilco LNG has a lean but experienced organization − Technical Management of existing vessels is outsourced − Establishing in-house technical management in co-operation with Awilco AS
Awilco LNG has been able to overcome the high barriers of entry in LNG shipping with clients such as:
- Petrobras - Kogas - North West Shelf
- Mitsui - Ibedrola - Gunvor /Clarelake
- LNG Japan - Excelerate - Mitsubishi
Awilco LNG financials − Strong balance sheet − No long-term debt on the existing vessels − All pre-delivery installments on newbuildings are paid and no need for financing before delivery of newbuildings
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Awilco LNG - Org Chart
Newbuilding WMS
Technical WMS
V. Ships
Ian Walker SVP Chartering
Jan Espen Andersen
Head of operation
Accounting
AWM
Snorre Krogstad CFO
Jon Skule Storheill
CEO
Øyvind Ryssdal Group Controller
Lindegull Nestegard PA/Office Manager
Yngve Breivik Operations
manager
Gustav Schrøder Technical
superintendent
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In-house technical management • Awilco LNG in process of building in-house technical management company in cooperation with Awilco AS
− Better control of crewing
− Better knowledge of the vessels
− Preferred by charterers
• Awilco AS has solid track record from ship management since 1939 and is currently technical managers for;
− Awilco Shipping
− Awilco Drilling
− Awilco LNG (Supervisory and NB)
• Awilco AS has extensive project management experience through various newbuilding and conversion
projects within both shipping and offshore
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Our fleet of 2nd generation vessels
WilGas WilPower WilEnergy
Built: 1984
Yard: Nagasaki
Capacity: 125,631
Manager: V.Ships LNG
Flag: NIS
Main Engine: Steam Turbine
Cap: 1
Built: 1983
Yard: Kawasaki
Capacity: 125,660
Manager: V.Ships LNG
Flag: MI
Main Engine: Steam Turbine
Cap: 1
Built: 1983
Yard: Nagasaki
Capacity: 125,556
Manager: V.Ships LNG
Flag: MI
Main Engine: Steam Turbine
Cap: 1
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Order of two newbuildings
Yard: Daewoo Shipbuilding
156,000 cbm
Delivery end August and mid November 2013
ICE classed 1C
Winterized (ship no 2)
Norwegian Flag (intention)
Class DNV
Various upgrades – in total value region MUSD 7-8
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Contract overview
WilPower Available from 20th June 2012
WilEnergy Available from February 2013
Newbuilding No.1 Available from August 2013
Newbuilding No.2 Available from November 2013
WilGas Available from November 2014
2012 2013
WilPower DD
WilEnergy DD
WilGas
Newbuilding
no 1 Construction
Newbuilding
no 2 Construction
Available
Available
Available
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USD million First half
2012 2011
Freight income 30.2 30.7
Voyage related expenses (3.5) (10.0)
Net freight income 26.6 20.7
Operating expenses (9.6) (12.0)
Administration expenses (2.2) (4.6)
EBITDA 14.9 4.1
Depreciation (3.8) (3.9)
Impairment parts/equip. (1.4) -
Net Finance 0.2 (0.8)
Profit/loss before tax 9.8 (0.6)
Tax (0.1) (2.6)
Profit/loss 9.7 (3.3)
USD million 30.06.12 31.03.12 31.12.11
Vessels 76.8 71.3 69.9
Vessels under construction 119.9 99.2 79.2
Total non-current assets 196.8 170.7 149.2
Cash 3.6 20.0 28.4
Total current assets 8.5 23.6 33.0
Total assets 205.4 194.2 182.2
Total equity 181.3 183.5 171.6
Non-current liabilities 1.6 - 1.9
Short-term interest bearing debt 10.4 - -
Total current liabilities 22.4 10.8 8.7
Total equity and liabilities 205.4 194.2 182.2
P&L Balance
Finance
• Two D.D during 1st half 2012 – next DD Q4 2013
• EBITDA MUSD 14.9
• No long term debt
• MUSD 20 Credit Facility – MUSD 10.2 utilized
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Agenda 12/09
1. Company overview
2. Market update
3. Summary
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Market update
Fundamentals for LNG shipping are appealing
Gas is clean Gas is abundantly available Gas is cheap
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Rate development
• Rates firmed during Q2 – and rates obtained were
close to last winter levels
• Slowing activity and softer rates during the summer
months due to:
− High inventory and lower energy demand in Japan
− Angola production start-up delayed
− Less arbitrage
Source: Fearnley LNG
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
LNG Spot Rate Seasonality 2005-2012Basis weekly rate as % annual average
2010 2011 2012 Avg '05-11
• Historically rates are sliding through spring, turning
upwards from July, autumn and winter typically strong
• Seasonal low impacted at a later stage
• When will the market rebound ?
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Source: Pareto Securities
130 132 139 153 158 165 178 182 187 203241 237
11 1116 20 24
34 45 4040
5695
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e
Long term contracts Spot and short term trade (incl. contracts < 4 yrs)
Global LNG trade (bcm)
• Changes in gas demand and shale gas
production has lead to increased diversion
of cargoes
• Ramp-up leads to increased volumes
• An increasing number of regas terminals
leads to a more liquid market
• In 2000 short term contracts accounted for
only 5% of the volumes, in 2011 this had
risen to 29%
Growing short term market
Global LNG Trade (bcm)
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LNG Trade Flow Developments Regional market
- Only a handful of players
- ’the LNG Club’ – mainly big oil companies and utilites
Global market
– banks, utilities, trading
houses, projects, IOCs,
power-companies, etc…
Source: Fearnley LNG
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• 1st half 2012 import up 19%
• Nuclear reactors a big uncertainty with 2 out of 54 reactors running
Japan import and power demand
Source: Marubeni,, Fearnley LNG
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tota
l qu
anti
ty o
f Im
po
rt (
in M
T)
Month
LNG Import into Japan
2012
2011
2010
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan.
07
Jul.0
7
Jan.
08
Jul.0
8
Jan.
09
Jul.0
9
Jan.
10
Jul.1
0
Jan.
11
Jul.1
1
Jan.
12
Jul.1
2
Nuclear plant utilization
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• Capacity expected to increase from ~ 16 mtpa in
2011 to ~46 mtpa in 2015, of which > 85%
already is under construction
• Import capacity could reach more than 90 mtpa
by 2020
• 1st half 2012 imports up 29%
• 15% of Japan - but growing steadily
• 5 year Chinese plan: increase the share of gas in total
energy demand from 4% in 2010 to 8% in 2015 and
10% in 2020
China LNG import
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Tota
l qu
anti
ty o
f Im
po
rt (
in M
T)
Month
LNG Import into China
2012
2011
2010 15,8
45,8
90,4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2011 2015E 2020 Total proposed
MTP
A
China LNG import Capacity
Source: Marubeni, Pareto
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India – the new LNG player?
• India has the 2nd largest population but is only the fifth largest energy consumer in the world
• Indian energy consumption is growing by 6.8% vs. global consumption growth of 2.6%
• Demand for natural gas far exceeding the domestic supply, LNG import increased by 46% in 2011
• Existing LNG import capacity is about 14 mtpa – currently growing and estimated to reach 50 mtpa by 2017
14 18
40
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2011 2012E 2015E 2017E
MTP
A
India LNG import Capacity
Source: Pareto, Dow Jones
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North America LNG export
• Huge reserves and low prices - large potential
• A total of 17 projects with a total of ~ 160 mtpa combined identified
• Increased vessel demand due to longer voyages
• Sabine Pass project alone could require ~30 vessels
Source: Fearnley LNG, Cheniere
Project name MTPA Owners DOE: non-FTA
approved
Sabine Pass Liquefication 18,0 Cheniere Energy Approved
Kitimat (Canada) 10,0 Apache, EOG, Encana Approved
Prince Rupert (Canada) 5,0 BG, Quensland gas 2013
Freeport LNG Expansion 13,2 Smith,Conoco, Dow, Osaka GasUnder DOE review
Lake Charles Exports 15,0 BG, Southern Union Under DOE review
Carib Energy (USA) 0,3 Carib Energy Under DOE review
Dominion Cove Point LNG 7,8 Dominion Resources Under DOE review
Jordan Cove Energy Project 6,0 Fort Chicago, Energy Pojects Under DOE review
Cameron LNG 12,0 Sempra, ENI Under DOE review
LNG Development Company 9,4 Oregon LNG Under DOE review
Gulf Coast LNG Export 21,0 Michael S. Smith N/A
Cambridge Energy 2,0 Cambridge Energy LLC N/A
Gulf LNG Liquefication Company 11,5 El Paso Corp N/A
SB Power Solutions 0,5 Seaboard Corp N/A
Southern LNG Company 3,7 Oregon Corp N/A
Excelerate Liquefacation Solutions 10,3 Excelerate Energy N/A
Golden Pass Products 15,6 ExxonMobile, Qatar N/A
17 161,3
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LNG export
• Total FID taken 91 mtpa
− North America 8.6 mtpa
• Total proposed FID 135 mtpa
− North America 67 mtpa
Country Project name Main Partners FID Startup MPTA
Angola Angola LNG Chevron,BP, Eni, Total, Sonangol Taken 2012 5,2
Australia Pluto LNG Woodside, Tokyo Gas, Kanseai Electric Taken 2012 4,8
Algeria Gassi Touil Sonatrach Taken 2013 4,7
Papua New Guinea PNG LNG ExxonMobil, OilSearch, Santos, NPCP Taken 2014 6,6
Australia Gladstone LNG Santos, Petronas, Total, KOGAS Taken 2015 7,8
Australia Gorgon LNG Chevron, Shell, Exxon, Mobile Taken 2015 15
Australia Queensland Curtis LNG BG, Queensland Gas Taken 2015 8,5
Australia Australia Pacific LNG Origin, ConocaoPhilips, SinoPec Taken 2015 8,6
Australia Ichtys Field NW Australia INPEX,Total Taken 2015 8,4
Australia Prelude LNG Shell Taken 2015 3,5
USA Sabine Pass T-2 Chenniere Taken 2015 8,6
Australia Wheatstone LNG Chevron, Shell 2012 2016 8,8
Total taken 91
Papua New Guinea Liquid Niguini Interoil, Pacific LNG, Liquid Niguini, Flex 2012 2015 2
Canada Kitimat Apache, EOG, Encana 2012 2016 10
Indonesia Tangguh (expansion) BP Migas 2012 2018 3,8
USA Freeport T1-2 Freeport LNG, Macquaire 2012 2016 8,8
Australia Quensland Curtis BG, Quensland gas 2013 2017 4,25
Nigeria Brass LNG NNPC, ENI , ConcocoPhilips, Total 2012 2017 10
Australia Browse LNG Woodside, BP , BHP , Billiton, Chevron, Shell 2013 2017 8
Canada Prince Rupert BG, Quensland gas 2013 2017 5
USA Freeport T3-4 Exxon, Mobile , NNPC, Shell, Total, Eni 2013 2017 8,8
USA Sabine Pass T-3-4 Chenniere 2013 2017 8,6
USA Lavaca Bay Excelerate Energy LLC 2013 2017 3
USA Cameron LNG Sempra 2013 2016 12
USA Golden Pass Exxon, Qatar Petroleum 2013 2017 15,6
Nigeria NLNG (7 train expansion) ExxonMobil, NNPC, Shell, Total, ENI 2013 2017 4,7
Russia Yamal LNG Novatek, Total 2013 2017 15
Russia Sthockman LNG Gazproim, Total, Statoil 2013 2017 15
Total expected FID 2012- 2013 135
Source: Fearnley LNG
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• If all projects realized ~210 vessels required in order to meet incremental volume.
• If projects under construction and 50% of new projects proposed (non FID) are concluded by 2017 - more than 150
vessels needed
Source: Fearnley LNG
Liquefaction growth 2012-2017
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MTPA Expected increase in LNG production
(not including ramp-up)
FID taken FID expected 2013
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LNG Newbuilding overview 2012 De live rySize (CBM)Hull Yard Owner
1 Oct-12 147 100 Hudong Zhonghua China LNG Shpg.
2013 De live rySize (CBM)Hull Builder Owner
1 Feb-13 155 000 1946 Samsung HI GasLog
2 Apr-13 155 000 1947 Samsung HI GasLog
3 Jul-13 155 000 2016 Samsung HI GasLog
4 Jul-13 159 760 2288 DSME MaranGas
5 Aug-13 155 900 2289 DSME Awilco LNG
6 Sep-13 160 000 2021 Samsung HI Golar LNG
8 Oct.13 160 000 2026 Samsung HI Golar LNG
9 Oct-13 160 000 2045 Samsung HI Thenamaris
10 Oct-13 155 000 Hyundai Heavy Dynagas
11 Oct-13 155 000 2017 Samsung HI GasLog
12 Oct-13 155 000 2556 Hyundai Heavy Dynagas
13 Oct-13 159 760 2295 DSME MaranGas
14 Oct-13 177 000 1665 Kawasaki ShipbuildingNYK
16 Nov-13 155 900 2290 DSME Awilco LNG
15 Nov-13 160 000 2022 Samsung HI Golar LNG
17 Dec-13 160 000 2023 Samsung HI Golar LNG
18 Dec-13 155 000 2041 Samsung HI GasLog
19 Dec-13 170 200 1910 STX O&S Sovcomflot
21 Dec-13 155 000 2557 Hyundai Heavy Dynagas
22 Dec-13 161 870 s624 Hyundai Heavy S MaranGas
Fixed Available
• Total orderbook – 73 LNG carriers (excluding FSRU), of which at least 43 are committed
• Orderbook will grow from 2015 onwards, annual yard capacity about 50 vessels/year
• Financing is challenging and will limit the orderbook
• Awiclo LNG has the first newbuilding to be delivered which is not committed to a contract
Source: Fearnley LNG
12 12 17
1 1
8 14
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Fleet Newbuildings
No contract Committed Total fleet
LNG Fleet (> 100 000 cbm)
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Agenda 12/09
1. Company overview
2. Market update
3. Summary
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Summary – Market Market • Short term - activity is expected to increase as;
− Less planed maintenance
− Angola starts production
− LNG players positioning themselves for the winter marked
• Long term fundamentals - remains strong as;
− LNG demand expected to continue to grow
− Liquefaction capacity is set for growth
- 91 mtpa under construction
- 67 mtpa potential FID during 2012 – 2013, excluding North America
- 160 mtpa potential from North America
• Shipping:
- Limited orderbook until end 2014
- Trading distances is expected to continue to increase
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Awilco LNG
• WilPower available for contract
• Have the first, as well as one of the earliest newbuildings to be delivered without contract in a firm market
• Strong balance sheet, all pre-delivery installments on newbuildings paid, no need for financing of
newbuildings prior to delivery
Well positioned going forward
Summary – Awilco LNG
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Q & A
Experienced
management team
2nd gen. fleet of
3 LNG carriers
2 newbuildings
world class yard
Strong balance sheet
Solid owners Tier 1 customers
Opportunistic strategy
www.awilcolng.no - 27 -
Jon Skule Storheill
Chief Executive Officer
Mobile: +47-9134 4356
E-mail: [email protected]
Snorre Schie Krogstad
Chief Financial Officer
Mobile: +47-9085 8393
E-mail: [email protected]