Paper Consumption India

8/3/2019 Paper Consumption India

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Trends in Paper Consumption and

the Impact on Demand forRecovered Fiber- India

Presented By

Ashu Vyas


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Weve been in India for 25 years and it shows.


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WorldsLargestMarketing

CompanySpecializinginPulp

andPaper

2.1Revenuesin

Excessof

Billion

Dollars

Moving

over5MillionTonsAnnually


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Global Foot Print

122 Countries


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Figures in Million Tonnes

Paper and PaperboardProduction Global Market

Source: RISI

383393 391

332 342

362 369

322329

371392E

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

United

States

W Europe Japan China India

Source: TerraChoiceMarketing Services, Inc.

Paper and Paperboard Output by

Region


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Indias Population1.16Billion

Median Age25.9Years

Economy11th Largest

Urbanization29% of India Lives in Cities

Source: CIA World Fact Book

GDP Growth7.4%

India


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95%

571

Indian Paper Industry

Paper Mills

have less than

50,000mts per annum

Million Tons

Global Market Share2.7%

8.9Manufactured9.9Demand

Estimated atMillionTons

8.5Per Capita

Consumption

Kg


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33.8

5.7

8.8

6.5

4.3

7.4

0123456789

10

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: IPMA

Indian Paper and BoardProduction

Source: IPMA

Figures in Million Metric Tons

8.9


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0.8

3.3

0.1

2.6

0.4

1.75

India Production By

Grade

Source: Pyry/IPMA


0.95

0.2


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Indian Writing PaperDemand

2.6

3.113.3

3.5

4.254.5

4.8

4

2.932.75

3.7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 211 2012 2013 2014 2015

Source: IPMA

http://www.shutterstock.com/subscribe.mhtml


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Source: IPMA

http://www.shutterstock.com/subscribe.mhtmlhttp://www.shutterstock.com/subscribe.mhtmlhttp://www.shutterstock.com/subscribe.mhtml


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Source: Hawkins Wright/IPMA

1.011.15

1.52

2.07

2.44

2.61

2.99

3.2

3.42

2.28

1.75

1.32

0.88

2.79

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Indian ContainerboardDemand



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Source: Hawkins Wright/IPMA

Indian Cartonboard

Demand


0.82

0.971.05

1.12

1.25

1.5

1.62

1.75

2.04

2.2

2.38

1.89

0.9

1.38

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013


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Source: Poyry/Hawkins Wright/IPMA


Forecasted Paper andPaperboard Production Trend


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Contributors to Forecasted Growth

Strong EconomicClimate Low Per Capita PaperConsumptionGDPGrowthRateof6-9% since2004 8.5kgs Comparedto56kgsWorldAvg.

PaperProduction

willDouble by2020GrowthRateWill

Continueatthisrate

for5-10 Years

Cross Currents Impacting the

Forecasted Growth


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Challenges InadequateInfra-StructureFragmented

Market

Low RecoveryRate

UnorganizedCollection Program

Under 30%Recycling Rate

Poor DomesticTransportation

No Cheap Sources

of Power

Indian Mills areSmall

No Economies ofScale


Forecasted Growth


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Forecasted Paper and PaperboardProduction Trend

Forecasted Fiber Composition

2009


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23%

22%

55%





2015


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23%

21%

56%





2020


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Recovered Paper Forecast

7.92

10.81

4.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2009 2015 2020


Source: PoyryIPMA


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USRecoveredFiber

ExportstoIndia

406

516479

588

465

615

713

973

859

11861223E

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: RISI

Figures in Thousand Metric Tons


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Imports orDomestic Collections?

60/40 Current Ratio ofDomestic to Imported

Recovered Paper

1.2 Million tons ofIncremental Imported

Recovered Fiber

1.8 Million tons ofIncremental Domestic

Consumption If Recovery Rate Increasesto 42% by 2015 and 48%

by 2020, Much ofIncremental Demand

Could be Fed by IncreasedDomestic Collections

At Current Recovery Rate At Increased Recovery Rate


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Source: Poyry

Fiber Composition of Indian

Paper Production


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Domestic Centric

Market

Competition From

China


Forecasted Growth

Will Domestic

Collections Grow Fast

Enough?

Required Quality of

Imported Recycled

Fiber Needed

Imports or

Domestic Collections?


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Conclusion


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Presented By

Ashu Vyas

Thank You

Paper Consumption India

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