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Transcript of Panel on GLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS: Introduction and An Overview by Dr Ijaz Shafi...
Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS:
Introduction and An Overview by
Dr Ijaz Shafi Gilani (Email: [email protected])
and Professor Takashi Inogouchi (Email: [email protected])
Reflections on Indices developed during 1945-2015
Presented atWAPOR Annual Congress, Buenos Aires, Argentina
June 16-19, 2015
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Panel Paper # 1
Page 2
We generally know what we can NAME and beyond it if we can
MEASUREwhat we have named
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
THINGS OR RELATIONSHIPS WHICH
CAN BE NAMED AND MEASURED ARE
MUCH MORE IMPORTANT IN OUR
‘REALITY’ COMPARED TO THOSE
WHICH ARE NOT
Page 3
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
WHILE REALITIES ARE SHAPED BY THE
WAY IN WHICH WE NAME AND
MEASURE THEM, NEW AND ‘EMERGING
REALITIES’ ARE IN SEARCH OF NAMES
AND MEASUREMENT APPROACHES
Page 4
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 5
IN A NUTSHELL ‘NAMING’ AND
‘MEASURING’ IS PART OF SCIENCE
AS WELL AS POLICY AND POLITICS
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 6
IT IS NOT WITHOUT REASON THAT THE AMERICAN CONSISTITUTION WROTE A CLAUSE WHICH REQUIRES A CENSUS OF POPULATION EVERY TEN YEARS
AMERICAN PRESIDENTS (NOTABLY HOOVER) ENGAGED AT GREAT LENGTH ON MEASUREMENT AND THE ISSUES JUST STATED ABOVE. THESE DISCUSSIONS CONTNUE TO THIS DAY
Documented by Raymond Bauer (1966) and Z. Karabel (2014)
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 7
EMERGING RELATIES REQUIRE THAT
THOSE SHOULD BE ‘NAMED’,
‘MEASURED’ AND ‘HARNESSED’
ACCORDING TO POLICY PERSPECTIVES
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 8
20th Century
IN THE FIRST HALF, THE FOCUS WAS ON
MEASURING ‘NATIONAL ECONOMES
It was later extended to
CORSS-NATIONAL COMPARISONS/
COMPARATIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH
A field developed by Simon Kuznets (1965) for which he
received a Nobel Prize in Economics
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 9
20th Century
IN THE SECOND HALF, THE FOCUS WAS
ON
MEASURING ‘SOCIAL INDICATORS’
Apparently this was a reaction to
Over-emphasis on ‘Economy’ which
triggered search for ‘Other Indicators’Details available in Raymond Bauer (Edited) Social Indicators, MIT Press
1966
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 10
21th Century
THE FOCUS IS ON
MEASURING A GLOBALIZED WORLD
HOWEVER INDICATORS AND MEASUREMENT
APPROACHES ARE STILL SHAPING
The Process is perhaps only at an early
stage
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 11
TWO HURDLES
Hurdle # 1
GOING BEYOND ‘ECONOMICS’
Hurdle # 2
GOING BEYONG ‘NATIONAL’
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 12
Search for Indicators and Measurement Approaches
BEYOND ECONOMCS
Behavioral Economics is One Example
Kahneman received a Nobal Prize for contribution in that field
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 13
Search for Indicators and Measurement Approaches
BEYOND NATION
World Values Survey is
One Example. It began as a
multi-country exercise
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 14
DOCUMENTING OF HISTORY IS OFTEN
NEEDED TO GO BEOND THE CONVENTION
BECAUSE IT INFORMS US OF THE PROCESS
THROUGH WHICH PREVIOUS CONVENTIONS
WERE MADE INTO ‘HISTORY’
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 15
For a detailed version of this paper we have chosen
2 Books as key source materials
INTERESTINGLY BOTH DID NOT RECEIVE WIDE ATTENTION IN THE FIELD, despite strong
credentials of the Authors and Publishers
Raymond Bawer (ed) Social Indicators, 1966
Zachary Karabel,The Leading Indicators,A Short History of the Numbers that Rule our World, 2014
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 16
RAYMOND BAUER (1966)
The first Book was very interestingly
produced under sponsorship from NASA
(before landing on the Moon) to
research the Consequences of such a
prospect on Society in a comprehensive
way (Economics and beyond)
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 17
ZACHARY KARABEL (2014)
The Second Book is driven by concerns
with the Global Economy. It is written
by a historian trained at Columbia and
Harvard History Departments, who
introduces himself as an ’author,
money manager and head of global
strategy at a consulting Group’.
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 18
Phase # 1: 1945-65
FOCUS ON ECONOMY
1- GDP/GNP: Per Capita National Income2- Unemployment (Unemployment Rates)3- Inflation (Consumer Price Index-CPI)4- Inequality (Gini Coefficient)
Continued……..
A short Chronology ofGLOBAL INDICATORS DURING
1945-2015
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 19
A short Chronology ofGLOBAL INDICATORS
DURING 1945-2015
Phase # 2: 1965-1990
FOCUS ON GOING ‘BEYOND ECONOMY’ AND ‘CROSS NATIONAL’
1- Civic Culture (Almond and Verba)
2- Democracy and Freedom (Freedom House)
3- World Values (Inglehart et.al)
4- Human Development Index (UNDP-Amartya Sen
and Mahboob ul Haque)
5- Human Poverty Index (World Bank et.al)Continued……..
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 20
A short Chronology ofGLOBAL INDICATORS
DURING 1945-2015
Phase # 3: 1990-2015
Focus On Going Beyond Nation and Reaching
out to ‘State’ and ‘Non-state’ Actor/ Audiences/
Policy Makers – FOCUS ON A GLOBALIZED WORLD
1- Corruption Perception Index – Transparency International2- Consumer Confidence (Reuters-Conference Board)
Originally developed by Katona at University of Michigan in the 1950s. Still continuing at Michigan for the US population
3- Market Research and Polling Industry driven work by
Economist Intelligence Unit – EIU Economist London Group )Series PWC and other leading Consulting Groups Gallup Inc. WIN-Gallup International Association Ipsos-MORI PEW Foundation Globscan/BBC Others ……….
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
Page 21
REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE: Phase # 3
Unlike Phase # 1 and (partly) Phase # 2 there is no Custodian. Central Governments were fairly unchallenged CUSTODIANS AND DRIVERS in Phase # 1. INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS (UN, World Bank et.at) or INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS of Central Governments provided that Role in Phase # 2.
In Phase # 3 there are SEVERAL DRIVERS BUT NO CUSTODIAN OR LEADER
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
1- THE ABSENCE OF A CUSTODIAN
Page 22
In Phase # 1, there was a strong THEORETICAL GROUNDING FOR THE CHOICE OF THE SUBJECT (Economy) AND ENORMOUS METHOLDOLOGICAL INPUT FROM DISCIPLINES WHICH LED THE MEASUREMENT PROCESS (Philosophy, Mathematics, Statistics).
This led to work like Kuznet and its critics. To cite an example, there is an interesting literature spanning over at least a decade, spearheaded by Economics Departments of leading American universities, on the concept of ‘Purchasing Power Parity’ (PPP), and ‘Living Standards Measurement’ before developing the modified Indicator of GNP at Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)*
This is less true for Phase # 2 and considerably less for Phase # 3
REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE:
PHASE # 3
_____________Work produced at National Bureau for Economics Research. Examples are Work by Rudger Dornbusch (MIT); McCloskey and Zecher (Harvard) and many othersContinued……..
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
2- WEAK ON THEORY
Page 23
Phase # 3 is preoccupied with (to borrow from recent economic development literature which talk about ‘Resource Curse’) the Curse of Abundant Data which has crowded out the hard work needed to develop new Global Indicators to Capture the realities of a Globalized world. The BIG DATA is a GREAT OPPORTUNITY as well as partly responsible for sluggish development of Indicators in Phase # 3
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
3- THE CURSE OF ABUNDANT DATA
REFLECTIONS ON THE CURRENT PHASE:
PHASE # 3
In Phase # 3 the Indicators are not necessarily addressed to a specialized audience of scholars and policy makers. Instead they are addressed to a much wider media audience.
The excessive focus on media visibility of the findings of global indices may hurt the development of sound Indices.
4- MISPLACED FOCUS ON MEDIA VISIBILITY
Page 24
This Panel has tried to lay ground for documenting the history of a few global indicators. In addition they also report on some of the data produced in the process. In addition to this overview paper there are 5 papers, one on Economic Indices, one on Public Health Indices and 3 on Governance related Indices. After the Overview paper, which has been numbered as Paper # 1, Paper # 2 looks on Economic Indices .
Paper # 3 looks on a Public Health issue, namely Vaccine Confidence Index.
Paper # 4 looks at Governance related Indices (unfortunately the paper can not be presented partly due to time constraints and partly because authors team was not yet satisfied with their research).
Paper # 5 also looks at a Governance related Index, namely Index on Justice, developed by the World Justice Program.
Paper # 6 looks at still another Governance related issue, namely Perceptions about Freedoms. We are very happy to host this paper in our panel because its subject and theme matched with that of this panel. It was not part of the original panel proposal.
WAPOR Annual Congress (2015): Panel onGLOBAL INDICES OF OPINIONS AND PERCEPTIONS
Introduction and An Overview
PRESENTATIONS IN THIS PANEL
THANK YOU